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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 705

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/6/2009 1:49:53 AM | message detail
I'm not sure how to respond, so I'll just be sincere.

The odds that Brawl is this weak are asymptotically approaching zero.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/6/2009 1:53:32 AM | message detail
My logic from the beginning was Galaxy SFFing Brawl and CoD4 sneaking in. Even if Brawl is stronger, it could still lose. Or maybe Pokemon is SFFing Mario right now, who knows. I'm just happy I called CoD4 into the third round, because all these casual games flopping around like fish was getting kind of old. Nice to see one of them dominate unexpectedly.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 5/6/2009 1:57:30 AM | message detail
CoD4 is defintely looking good to advance from the Round 2 match but I'm not sure what part of this match makes SMG look better than SSBB.
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Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/6/2009 2:00:42 AM | message detail
I never said Galaxy looked better than Brawl at all. Galaxy is likely screwed unless it manages to SFF Brawl badly is all I said there.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/6/2009 2:06:07 AM | message detail
The night vote doesn't show much difference from the power hour. Call of Duty 4 must be a pretty day oriented game to match up to Nintendo there
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/6/2009 2:08:28 AM | message detail
The only thing I can take from this is that Super Mario Sunshine caused people to quit caring about Mario. And on this site, Super Mario Galaxy wasn't hyped as much as Call of Duty 4/Twilight Princess/Brawl, and since hype usually happens to be GOOD on this site, with it not backfiring as much, you get the result.

And this reminds me of the last contest, where Wind Waker and Final Fantasy X, which were widely believed to be the easy top two in Division 128, were upended by multiplayer masterpieces. And I assume that this is why Smash is so strong on this site, thanks to it being Nintendo + multiplayer.

Still, I stick to my belief that Super Mario Galaxy, Grand Theft Auto IV, Metal Gear Solid 4, and Fallout 3 were the games most deserving of winning this division. Though Call of Duty 4 is the best multiplayer title of this generation (yes, I've gained more respect for the title, as I can see myself having a joyful time waging warfare in modern environment with other players), which makes it also deserving of winning this division.

And this makes me wonder what Battlefield 1942's strength would be in a contest setting. It did beat Metroid Prime (way to suck, MP!) for IGN's 2002 Game of the Year on power of sheer addiction alone.

Now to see how CoD4 and SMG do with vote totals.
transience | Posted 5/6/2009 2:08:53 AM | message detail
Pokemon's gonna end up closer to Galaxy than COD4, probably.

what a bomb.
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yzzyx
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/6/2009 2:25:35 AM | message detail
Yeah, how would Counter-Strike or Battlefield 1942 do if they were in this contest?
greatone10 | Posted 5/6/2009 2:30:30 AM | message detail

From: transience | Posted: 5/6/2009 2:08:53 AM | #157
Pokemon's gonna end up closer to Galaxy than COD4, probably.

what a bomb.


I would expect third place to be closer to second place than first place. Otherwise it wouldn't be in third.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
transience | Posted 5/6/2009 2:31:27 AM | message detail
er, Galaxy will be closer to Pokemon than COD4. you know what I mean.
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xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/6/2009 2:42:49 AM | message detail
Nah I think Mario Galaxy will rise up in the ASV. I mean, Paper Mario stole the ASV from Kingdom Hearts!!!

But yeah, this is unexpected and it contradicts everything seen thus far. I don't think Mario Galaxy is weak though; it's probably more of Call of Duty 4 being quite strong, and franchise voting not having as much of an effect in these last two divisions. The Final Fantasy, Legend of Zelda, and Mario titles of this generation have all disappointed (assuming Twilight Princess was supposed to do better on Half-Life 2 than it did).
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/6/2009 2:44:08 AM | message detail
Well at the least it doesn't contradict the GotY poll.

That's 2 in a row woo
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/6/2009 3:21:02 AM | message detail
WHAT A RESULT! I'm feelin' mighty good about my Galaxy > CoD4 upset right now, though it looks like we'll have it backwards.

Did...did BT hijack your account or something?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/6/2009 3:23:48 AM | message detail
And while I grant the high likelihood of Galaxy/DP LFF, CoD4 is still getting 55.55% on Galaxy right now. For some reason, I think Brawl still wins despite DP. Next round, the overlap is still going to be nasty, so CoD4 probably wins again, but I expect Brawl to come out on top.

Oh, and DP is cutting Mario Galaxy with the morning vote, looks like.
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transience | Posted 5/6/2009 3:26:47 AM | message detail
Galaxy not rocking the morning vote is pretty much all I need to write the game off.

it's still early though.
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xyzzy
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/6/2009 3:30:41 AM | message detail
That was a strange night vote. Only TF2's percentage changed from the Power Hour by more than a percent.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/6/2009 3:33:56 AM | message detail
By the way, does TF2's performance say anything about Portal? They're both part of the Orange Box, right?

I guessed that Portal was the more popular of the two since GlaDOS and the Cube did better than Heavy and Spy, but I don't know.
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Gaddswell | Posted 5/6/2009 3:35:11 AM | message detail
Looks like it's Pokemon that's benefiting the most from the morning here.
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http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png
Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/6/2009 3:39:05 AM | message detail
God, did GameSpy come and mop this place up overnight? Well, the game that won their version of this contest has already been eliminated, so they can't do as much damage as they'd like...

Okay, just kidding. But is there a possibility that Super Mario Galaxy could be weaker than, dare I say, Half-Life 2 or even Final Fantasy XII?
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/6/2009 3:41:08 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/6/2009 3:41:36 AM | message detail
I don't think TP beats Galaxy that badly (at least not indirectly), but I could see HL2 beating out Galaxy due to LFF if it was in the same match with TP.
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transience | Posted 5/6/2009 3:48:09 AM | message detail
this is more like it. Mario's a beast in the morning.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/6/2009 3:50:21 AM | message detail
Yep, Galaxy's finally starting to wake up, but it's still not doing much more than stalling CoD4. TF2 is going way down with the morning vote though!

Wonder if Galaxy finishes above 30% here.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/6/2009 3:59:38 AM | message detail
I actually just realized why all the older FPSs tanked while the newer ones didn't. Well, many say that the older FPSs were obsoleted by the newer ones, and since that's the biggest genre on the market, all the older FPSs didn't do too well. Many of us put faith in DOOM, GoldenEye, Half-Life, Perfect Dark, and Halo, but then those games didn't do very well. Then we come to Half-Life 2, the game that is basically the reason for FPSs being so major in the market, and we see it put up a surprisingly good fight. Then Call of Duty 4 does the same. Translation: the newer FPSs will be beasts.

According to vote totals, Half-Life 2 would beat these games:

-Oblivion
-Diablo II
-Wind Waker
-Final Fantasy IX
-Final Fantasy Tactics
-Metroid Prime
-Every GTA game
-Every Halo game
-Yoshi's Island
-Symphony of the Night

Of course, vote totals tell us that PAC-MAN would beat every game above except for Diablo II, so maybe that doesn't mean much?
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/6/2009 4:37:49 AM | message detail
Yeah vote totals can be an odd stat.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/6/2009 4:41:43 AM | message detail
Chop Chop Master Onion > Fox in 2002 votes. I loved 2002.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/6/2009 4:50:38 AM | message detail
actually just realized why all the older FPSs tanked while the newer ones didn't. Well, many say that the older FPSs were obsoleted by the newer ones, and since that's the biggest genre on the market, all the older FPSs didn't do too well. Many of us put faith in DOOM, GoldenEye, Half-Life, Perfect Dark, and Halo, but then those games didn't do very well. Then we come to Half-Life 2, the game that is basically the reason for FPSs being so major in the market, and we see it put up a surprisingly good fight. Then Call of Duty 4 does the same. Translation: the newer FPSs will be beasts.

It's more that FPS games accepted by the hardcore, typical GameFAQs user are impressing while casual series have been disappointing. We'll see if Fallout beats Halo 3 with that logic. Call of Duty 4 has casual as well as hardcore support. Any other Call of Duty would have third place here likely.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/6/2009 4:51:20 AM | message detail
As for Portal, I never thought it would be worth much. It's simply too niche to get anything more than 15% in that match.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/6/2009 5:20:04 AM | message detail
I think Portal will own LittleBigPlanet's face easily.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 5:21:28 AM | message detail
So... remove Pokemon, does CoD4 still win?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMG > CoD4 Points: 85/116
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/6/2009 5:21:51 AM | message detail
I think Portal will own LittleBigPlanet's face easily.

This. Could LBP have a worse opponent than Metal Gear Solid 4?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 5/6/2009 5:23:20 AM | message detail
I'll say it again - Portal should come closer to MGS4 than anyone's expecting. We're not talking about a niche game for this crowd, and EVERYONE who played Portal liked it.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 5:23:41 AM | message detail
Watch LBP still win despite its opponent, that's how weak BS and Portal are.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMG > CoD4 Points: 85/116
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/6/2009 5:26:23 AM | message detail
I doubt that BioShock is weak after seeing Half-Life 2 and Call of Duty 4 surprise us.
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/6/2009 5:28:21 AM | message detail
It doesn't matter if Bioshock isn't weak. It won't be as strong as Portal is.
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turnturnturn your brain in
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 5:28:58 AM | message detail
Portal won't beat Bioshock.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMG > CoD4 Points: 85/116
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/6/2009 5:29:27 AM | message detail
From: BlAcK TuRtLe
As for Portal, I never thought it would be worth much. It's simply too niche to get anything more than 15% in that match.

GlaDOS, got 30% against Vincent, despite the only time it's name was mentioned in the game being in the last 20 seconds when it was seen written on it's destroyed body. You saw what the Cube did, it wouldn't have gone anywhere if it didn't have base appeal to start with.

Portal was packaged in the Orange Box, which loads of people accept as one of the greatest gaming collections ever released and Portal itself won bucketloads of awards.

The cake is a lie is a full out meme.

Niche my ass. Don't talk dick BT.
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Please.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 5:31:37 AM | message detail
Portal was packaged in the Orange Box, which loads of people accept as one of the greatest gaming collections ever released and Portal itself won bucketloads of awards.

While not as weak, Team Fortress 2 is being crushed here.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMG > CoD4 Points: 85/116
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/6/2009 5:32:59 AM | message detail
From: charmander6000
Portal was packaged in the Orange Box, which loads of people accept as one of the greatest gaming collections ever released and Portal itself won bucketloads of awards.

While not as weak, Team Fortress 2 is being crushed here.


And Half Life 2 flat out demolished. Any reason why one is any more significant then the other? I was using it to show that the game wasn't niche, not to suggest it was strong.
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Sorry if that wasn't clear.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/6/2009 5:33:25 AM | message detail
Portal > > Team Fortress 2 > Team Fortress 2 in a poll with CoD4
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 5:36:02 AM | message detail
And Half Life 2 flat out demolished. Any reason why one is any more significant then the other? I was using it to show that the game wasn't niche, not to suggest it was strong.

Portal will be closer to Team Fortress 2 than Half-Life 2. I also see the characters being inflated because of the internet meme while I don't see Portal benefiting from the same thing.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMG > CoD4 Points: 85/116
charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 5:37:58 AM | message detail
Portal > > Team Fortress 2 > Team Fortress 2 in a poll with CoD4

CoD4 and TF2 aren't that related and besides Pokemon is probably doing more damage to SMG.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMG > CoD4 Points: 85/116
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/6/2009 5:39:25 AM | message detail
From: charmander6000
Portal will be closer to Team Fortress 2 than Half-Life 2. I also see the characters being inflated because of the internet meme while I don't see Portal benefiting from the same thing.

I repectfully disagree. I don't know if you've played the games, I suspect you haven't. GlaDOS was not named in the game, yet still put up 30% on Vincent Valentine.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb7/thumb_cb7-11.jpg

That was the picture it got. You think anyone who didn't know who GlaDOS was voted for it? Really? Portal would CRUSH TF2.
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A doubling IMO.
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/6/2009 5:42:04 AM | message detail
Portal getting a doubling on TF2 would mean that it's on Galaxy's level going by this match.

Not completely impossible, but definitely the upper levels of its strength. It being stronger than HL2 isn't out of the realm of possibility though.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 5:42:45 AM | message detail
I repectfully disagree. I don't know if you've played the games, I suspect you haven't. GlaDOS was not named in the game, yet still put up 30% on Vincent Valentine.

You seem to have forgotten that Falco and most likely everyone in that four-pack over performed against Vincent. With such weak competition, not including Vincent, it is expected for characters to over perform.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMG > CoD4 Points: 85/116
charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 5:43:50 AM | message detail
Portal getting a doubling on TF2 would mean that it's on Galaxy's level going by this match.

Not completely impossible, but definitely the upper levels of its strength. It being stronger than HL2 isn't out of the realm of possibility though.


Portal is not that strong.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMG > CoD4 Points: 85/116
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/6/2009 5:44:03 AM | message detail
Also, as much as I like touting the GlaDOS match for simple recognition purposes, focusing on the percentage isn't the right way to go. Vincent underperformed in that match. Falco impressed like all hell, and one round later he ended up being perhaps the biggest humiliation of the second round.

(and I'm including Sonic in that!)
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turnturnturn your brain in
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Karma Hunter | Posted 5/6/2009 5:45:22 AM | message detail
Portal is not that strong.

You gonna pull an argument out any time soon, or should I go back to ignoring you?
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turnturnturn your brain in
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/6/2009 5:45:50 AM | message detail
From: Karma Hunter
Portal getting a doubling on TF2 would mean that it's on Galaxy's level going by this match.

Not completely impossible, but definitely the upper levels of its strength. It being stronger than HL2 isn't out of the realm of possibility though.


Yeah, but I think this match is bull and the split with Pokémon is killing Galaxy. 1-on-1 I think Galaxy beats CoD4. It's currently on around 45%.
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I don't think that's even really debatable.
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/6/2009 5:47:12 AM | message detail
I don't think that's even really debatable.

With TF2 in the match, and the independence Pokemon has shown from the rest of the Ninty fanbase? To call that conclusion hasty is a vast understatement.
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turnturnturn your brain in
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