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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 705

red sox 777 | Posted 5/5/2009 10:07:33 PM | message detail
...and favor Melee 100%.

Among the competitive Smash community, Melee beats down Brawl worse than Link/Ganon. Maybe as badly as Legend of Zelda/Adventure. I can't think of a single person I've seen anywhere, in real life or online or anywhere, who considers himself a remotely serious Smash player and favors Brawl.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/5/2009 10:07:36 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #096
Melee > Brawl does not remind me at all of Samus > Mario. Where did you get that from?

As an aside, we Mario pickers like to bring up that match as the epitomy of obviousness, but....only 2 people took Mario to get over 55% in the Oracle. Only Lopen exceeded Mario's actual percentage. If that match was so obvious, almost all of us didn't see it 'till afterward.


Thank you for pointing that out. I went with Mario and it helped me finish in the top 50, but I've never rubbed it in anyone's face because I remember just how unsure the board was in general. IIRC, only one Board 8er named Andel bet anything on that match.
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Lopen | Posted 5/5/2009 10:07:39 PM | message detail
Only Lopen exceeded Mario's actual percentage

Aw yeah. Got that, people? I'm the only one that can say "it's freaking Mario" around here.

Galaxy vs Brawl is nothing like that case closed the master has spoken.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 10:08:33 PM | message detail
We're debating Melee/Brawl, not Galaxy/Brawl!

Heck, Galaxy/Brawl probably is Mario/Samus-esque at this point!
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Lopen | Posted 5/5/2009 10:09:39 PM | message detail
Oh.

Melee/Brawl is not like that either

The master has spoken
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/5/2009 10:09:59 PM | message detail
Ok, in fewer words then:

1. I think casual Smash fans may favor Melee now.
2. The competitive Smash fanbase is not insignificant, and could turn an otherwise 50/50 match into a 60/40 match. They only need to make up 20% of the Smash fanbase to do that.


1. What possible reasoning do you have for this?
2. So basically you are expecting there to be about 30,000 competitive Smash players to all visit this site at the same time and all support Melee? I doubt there are even 30,000 competitive Smash players in existance.
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Yesmar | Posted 5/5/2009 10:10:33 PM | message detail
In all fairness to Mario > Samus, I stuck by it from the very beginning and never wavered, but Mario was legitimately as popular as Samus that year, which was not what my and other people's logic was about. I still say that Mario wins even in '04, but we'll never know that, since the situation our logic was based on never occurred.

That being said, I also think that Melee and Brawl being roughly equal makes sense, but I can't honestly defend it after that GOTY performance.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/5/2009 10:11:21 PM | message detail
As an aside, we Mario pickers like to bring up that match as the epitomy of obviousness, but....only 2 people took Mario to get over 55% in the Oracle. Only Lopen exceeded Mario's actual percentage. If that match was so obvious, almost all of us didn't see it 'till afterward.

Hey, if I was signed up for the Oracle that year, I would have been over 55%.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 10:11:33 PM | message detail
Looks like Galaxy is starting to take off now that the Power Hour is over.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/5/2009 10:11:38 PM | message detail
Samus's best shot was probably in 2003.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/5/2009 10:12:10 PM | message detail
And now I go to sleep.

It's a good day already!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 10:13:29 PM | message detail
I think Samus was at her best and Mario was at his worst in 2004, so that was her best shot, really. But yeah, regardless, it's hard to say how that would've played out then. For all we know, Mario pickers just got lucky because of the site shift.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/5/2009 10:14:00 PM | message detail
You don't think 20% of Smash fans (meaning, people who actually like Smash, not people who played it once at a friend's house and wouldn't vote for it) prefer 1v1 matches to 4-ways? That's as serious a player as you need to be to prefer Melee to Brawl. And I already said the casual players preferring Melee too thing was based on anecdotal evidence and personal observations, and, quite honestly, you can't give any more reasoning for the reverse.
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creativename | Posted 5/5/2009 10:14:30 PM | message detail
Why are we still arguing Brawl/Melee? There's only one person that disagrees and is pushing this.

Hey, if I was signed up for the Oracle that year, I would have been over 55%.

And you still would've done horribly in the overall standings.
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 5/5/2009 10:16:09 PM | message detail
So... Galaxy's picking up steam after the power hour? This match is weird.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 10:17:12 PM | message detail
Yeah, Galaxy is really flying now. It's gained .21% since the end of the Power Hour.

Kinda strange.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/5/2009 10:18:17 PM | message detail
Odd. I would've expected it to drop hard.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/5/2009 10:19:53 PM | message detail
Proof positive that Power Hour voters are returning the finger that Nintendo has given them. Such a shame that Galaxy is a casualty.

Ah well Melee > Brawl with 78% confirmed
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/5/2009 10:20:08 PM | message detail
And for the record, I don't actually expect Melee to be worth 60% on Brawl. Don't think it'll be too far off from that though....55% minimum.
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Lopen | Posted 5/5/2009 10:20:40 PM | message detail
Mario's power hour is questionable. Mega Man X always beat his ass with it. In the AC topic I said this might happen.

Still don't think he comes back, but yeah.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 10:21:48 PM | message detail
I mentioned in the last topic that Mario 1 and Mario 3 didn't have great Power Hours or board votes, so it's not horribly surprising.
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Lopen | Posted 5/5/2009 10:22:41 PM | message detail
Also another thing that makes Mario Galaxy primed to do better as the poll goes on:

Pokemon is highly frontloaded. And it probably does the most damage to Mario Galaxy by a good margin.. so as it levels out Mario Galaxy gains more.
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creativename | Posted 5/5/2009 10:24:38 PM | message detail
CoD4 should own the overnight vote I'd expect.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/5/2009 10:26:01 PM | message detail
Huh. Galaxy just lost pretty much all the % gain it got from the end of the power hour right there.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 10:26:42 PM | message detail
I'd expect CoD4 and TF2 both to do well at night. They should combine for over 50% of the vote in the poll at some point. They're already at 48.5% right now.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 10:26:47 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #123
CoD4 should own the overnight vote I'd expect.


MacMillans best time was the ASV last contest.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 10:27:47 PM | message detail
I'd imagine that CoD4 probably does have a good ASV since this is going to be a very popular game in America, but there really isn't another game to do well at night aside from TF2.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/5/2009 10:31:16 PM | message detail
And Pokemon follows it up with holding Galaxy to no gain.
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SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/5/2009 10:31:42 PM | message detail
God this is such a confusing result. HOW THE HELL IS SUPER MARIO GALAXY LOSING TO CALL OF DUTY 4, WHEN IT ALREADY BEAT COD4 IN THE GAME OF THE YEAR POLL, IS PART OF ONE OF GAMEFAQS' BIG THREE FRANCHISES, AND HAS A HUGE PICTURE ADVANTAGE. WHAT THE HELL!!!

So far Brawl > Twilight Princess > Mario Galaxy is confirmed. Nuts, considering for most Nintendo fans the order is the exact opposite.
xp1337 | Posted 5/5/2009 10:34:14 PM | message detail
So far Brawl > Twilight Princess > Mario Galaxy is confirmed.

Huh?

Am I missing something? I think I'd still favor Twilight Princess, at least indirectly. I'd consider FFXII, Half-Life 2, and Wright much stronger competition than GTA4, SFIV, and Persona 4. It may be close, and Brawl could still win, but I wouldn't say it's somehow confirmed either way yet.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/5/2009 10:34:32 PM | message detail
As for games, I doubt the picture matters much unless it's an extreme case (Makes me want to question RBY's performance, but...), to be honest.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 10:35:29 PM | message detail
Talking about pics

Is this gonna be the first time a character/game with a pic of a black guy will win?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 10:35:32 PM | message detail
Haha, DP just tied Galaxy.

Argh, you suck, Galaxy.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 10:36:34 PM | message detail
Is this gonna be the first time a character/game with a pic of a black guy will win?

Pretty sure FFVII had a pic of Barret in the final against CT.

*checks*

Yep.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 10:37:21 PM | message detail
And now DP is climbing fast. What the heck is going on?
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/5/2009 10:44:07 PM | message detail
And here's the update on the vote totals list. BTW The Secret of Monkey Island had the lowest vote total out of every game that moved on to round 2, not Ninja Gaiden.

1. Super Mario Bros. 3
2. Super Mario Bros.
3. The Legend of Zelda
4. Zelda: Ocarina of Time
5. Final Fantasy VII
6. Chrono Trigger
7. Zelda: A Link to the Past
8. Super Mario World
9. Pokemon Red/Blue
10. Tetris
11. Super Smash Bros. Melee
12. Super Smash Bros. Brawl
13. Final Fantasy X
14. Final Fantasy IV
15. Super Mario 64
16. Final Fantasy VIII
17. Final Fantasy
18. Zelda: Twilight Princess
19. Sonic the Hedgehog
20. Kingdom Hearts
21. Metal Gear Solid
22. Final Fantasy VI
23. Resident Evil 4
24. GoldenEye
25. Kingdom Hearts 2
26. Metal Gear Solid 3
27. Super Metroid
28. Super Mario Kart
29. Mega Man 2
30. Pokemon Gold/Silver
31. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
32. Street Fighter II
33. Super Mario RPG
34. Mega Man 3
35. Zelda: Link’s Awakening
36. Zelda: Majora’s Mask
37. Metal Gear Solid 2
38. StarCraft
39. Half-Life 2
40. Diablo II
41. Mortal Kombat II
42. Pac-Man
43. Oblivion
44. Grand Theft Auto IV
45. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
46. Halo
47. Final Fantasy XII
48. Mario Kart 64
49. Zelda: Wind Waker
50. Tales of Symphonia

Both of yesterday's finishers made the top 50 in vote totals. Grand Theft Auto IV has the highest vote total out of its series, indicating that it's actually the STRONGEST GTA game, not the weakest (which is what I thought pre-contest). Super Smash Bros. Brawl managed to break 56k votes, and looks to be one of the site's strongest games. The backlash given by most reviewers on SSBB seems nonexistant on this site thus far. Interestingly enough, Brawl managed a slightly lower vote total than its predecessor, and Melee's match was riddled with SFF. So Melee > Brawl. Yikes.
Lopen | Posted 5/5/2009 11:11:04 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: Call of Duty 4 tanks Halo style at night and actually comes close to losing/barely loses its lead, but comes back with a day vote that while not Halo-esque, is good enough to get it done.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/5/2009 11:32:47 PM | message detail
Okay, Super Mario Galaxy started a tiny comeback, but...

Well, SMG is most certainly going to win the ASV. Didn't Paper Mario win the ASV against KINGDOM HEARTS???

Maybe I'm just speaking in favor of Mario Galaxy, with it being one of the few games that I would consider worthy of "Best. Game. Ever.," but some part of me thinks it will still comeback. I mean, FPSs have tanked the whole contest while Mario games have done very, very well, but then Half-Life 2 and Call of Duty 4 show us otherwise. And I've never seen an entrant comeback from being behind by 6%, though this is still the very early part of the match.

Actually, didn't Vice City start out 10% behind Metroid Prime?
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/5/2009 11:39:59 PM | message detail
As much as I love for Galaxy to take first, this one's probably over.

...but I would enjoy a comeback :)

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 11:45:40 PM | message detail
I wouldn't say SMG should win the asv. Don't forget, Call of Duty fans are typically the same ones who play Halo all day on XBL.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/5/2009 11:49:24 PM | message detail
God Call of Duty 4 is pulling away from Mario Galaxy.

I thought Mario games doing well the whole contest and FPSs tanking meant that SMG had this match easily. Nope. Franchise voting has been extinguished for the most part in these last two divisions...

...or has it. Final Fantasy XII still broke 30k votes in its poll, lending us to think that Half-Life 2 has some serious strength, and is a decent midcarder at worst. Judging by vote totals, it would beat any GTA or Halo game. HL2 has even managed a higher vote total than Wind Waker, Final Fantasy IX, and Final Fantasy Tactics. This means that some of the more recent shooters will do really well with a huge online fanbase, and this match is more Call of Duty 4 being strong than Super Mario Galaxy sucking.

And amazingly enough, StarCraft and Half-Life 2 have been the top two PC titles according to vote totals, despite the fact that neither game actually won their match while Diablo II and Oblivion did. I know it's a broken record by now, but I had to mention it!

Gotta bring on BioShock, folks!
Lopen | Posted 5/5/2009 11:57:35 PM | message detail
Hmmm looks like that one backfired. Wait till the foreigners wake up.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/6/2009 12:03:04 AM | message detail
@MyWorldsCrono: True, but if PAPER MARIO could win the ASV against KINGDOM HEARTS...

Alright, after today's semi-disgusting result (not that I hate Call of Duty 4, it is the best multiplayer title of this generation!), we have the next match, between one heck of a Middle Eastern adventure in Metal Gear Solid 4, a trip to an underwater city in BioShock, an innovative FPS called Portal, and the 2nd best platformer of this generation in LittleBigPlanet. Anyways, MGS4 is a hugely respected title on this site, and it should get first easily. After that, BioShock should do well, especially after seeing surprises from Half-Life 2 and Call of Duty 4. LittleBigPlanet will get SFFd down the drain and will likely finish last, and Portal will probably get a decent chunk of percentage. Right now I'm going to estimate BioShock being STRONGER than Half-Life 2, and Metal Gear Solid 4 around Twilight Princess's level, thus...

Prediction: Metal Gear Solid 4 > BioShock
BioShock - 30% Portal - 20% Metal Gear Solid 4 - 35% LittleBigPlanet - 15%
Bracket: Metal Gear Solid 4 > BioShock
Favorites: Metal Gear Solid 4 > BioShock
HaRRicH | Posted 5/6/2009 12:23:41 AM | message detail
I can't help but notice Ulti and Harrich not posting.

Thanks for quoting this, MS. Excuse the **** out of me for trying to get my room-mate drunk on his 21st birthday most of the night. Thanks for having my back TRE.

For the record, though I predicted SMG > CoD4 recently, my bracket says CoD4 > SMG for this round and the next. I started thinking too much about why Pokemon should bomb when we hadn't seen it fail yet and too much about CoD4 bombing when we haven't seen many FPSs do well yet.

I'll concede that SSBB is looking good right now against SMG in R2, but I have thought CoD4 > GTA4 for awhile and SMG is dealing with LFF. I'm not giving up yet, though SSBB has to be the favorite. I grant that much.
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transience | Posted 5/6/2009 12:29:42 AM | message detail
hmm.. anyone taking COD4 over Fallout 3?

this match is great for another reason - SSBB vs. MGS4, round 4. we're looking at a near-lock of Brawl / COD4 / Fallout 3 / MGS4. Fallout 3 and COD4 probably screw each other over - not that they really had a huge chance anyway - leaving our two big 2008 games to go at it yet again.


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HaRRicH | Posted 5/6/2009 12:33:04 AM | message detail
I'll take SSBB in a rematch against MGS4. SSBB proved enough against GTA4/P4 (although it underperformed) according to the GotY-polls) that MGS4 will still need to improve from the GotY-polls to beat SSBB...so I still don't like MGS4 winning the division.
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Prototype
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transience | Posted 5/6/2009 12:42:25 AM | message detail
we haven't seen MGS4 yet. it seems like it should put up big numbers against that pack, what with everything being new IPs. franchise votes should be out en masse.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 5/6/2009 12:46:14 AM | message detail
*Looks at results*

Wow, I give up on life.
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paulg235 | Posted 5/6/2009 12:48:31 AM | message detail
This match makes hardly any sense until you look into it further.

Close in the GOTY polls + SMG LFF'ed = win
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/6/2009 1:48:08 AM | message detail
*just woke up*

WHAT A RESULT! I'm feelin' mighty good about my Galaxy > CoD4 upset right now, though it looks like we'll have it backwards.
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