GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 705
Ed Bellis | Posted 5/5/2009 9:22:44 PM | message detail |
more like peach tampon ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days. Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples) For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- This was KING BELLIS LOL ed status: [00:26] <pxl> i'd steamboat her willie if you know what i mean |
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/5/2009 9:22:54 PM | message detail |
TOO SOON --- In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now. http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg |
TheKnightOfNee | Posted 5/5/2009 9:23:08 PM | message detail |
TOO FAST --- Sushi, kamikaze,fujiyama, nippon-ichi... ONLY FIVE CAN LADDER. |
Master Moltar | Posted 5/5/2009 9:23:58 PM | message detail |
TOO ED --- Moltar Status: ahh, there you are Match 30 - Bracket: SMG > CoD4 - Vote: SMG (81/116) |
Tirofog | Posted 5/5/2009 9:27:08 PM | message detail |
TOO HUMAN --- I'm just here to post something barely relevant, then fade back into the shadows. It's a tough job, but someone has to do it. |
creativename | Posted 5/5/2009 9:27:53 PM | message detail |
Ack...500'd. is actually enjoyed and welcomed by the so-called "hardcore" crowd. Indeed. Although I have to say that when it comes to FPSes the "hardcore" crowd is a *very* large percentage of all players. If I had to guess, I'd say it is probably the strongest game in the genre (Goldeneye be damned!) Might well be the case that CoD4>Goldeneye. Don't think they're too far apart, but don't know if we'll ever really know because of 4ways. TuRtLe's Prediction: Call of Duty 4 33%, Mario Galaxy 30%, Pokemon D/P (lol dp) 24%, Team Fortress 2 13% Oh damn. This is pretty good! :) --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
ZFS | Posted 5/5/2009 9:28:04 PM | message detail |
TOO WHOA --- a metal slime appears |
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/5/2009 9:28:15 PM | message detail |
C-C-C-COMBO BREAKER!!! --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 9:28:45 PM | message detail |
ONE ED BELLIS OF AN UPSET! --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/5/2009 9:29:16 PM | message detail |
The crunkiest. --- I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him. |
creativename | Posted 5/5/2009 9:29:28 PM | message detail |
Hello? Hi? I lost? Can I have my sig now? Oh my bad :) Uhh...umm...wow, can't think of anything. Give me a few minutes :) --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 9:29:48 PM | message detail |
http://kotaku.com/5125969/some-call-of-duty-4-stats-to-boggle-the-mind Over 10 million unique people played CoD4 on 360, and thats only one of the systems. I guess its one of the most played games out there these days. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif |
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/5/2009 9:29:51 PM | message detail |
OI, MARIO http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yh2_9GjqbRM&feature=channel_page --- http://thengamer.com/guru/ |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/5/2009 9:30:03 PM | message detail |
Well, now that my 2 big "obvious" picks panned out (today and Brawl > Galaxy) there's really nothing more to look forward to. What else have I been hyping up? Goldeneye flopping? I hate to say it, but I like Mario Kart > Goldeneye for round 2. --- http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
SonicRaptor | Posted 5/5/2009 9:30:34 PM | message detail |
Pokemon and Galaxy are splitting votes off one another, there is no other way to explain why CoD4 is doing so well. --- Today's Subliminal Thought Is: |
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/5/2009 9:31:12 PM | message detail |
Turtle, which game do you think is moving on with LttP? I can't say. At all. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Iubaris | Posted 5/5/2009 9:32:08 PM | message detail |
From: SonicRaptor | #015 Pokemon and Galaxy are splitting votes off one another, there is no other way to explain why CoD4 is doing so well. There are actually many reasons to explain it. --- It's iubaris, not Lubaris. Bracket: 81 points || Guru: 172nd || Oracle: 30th |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/5/2009 9:33:19 PM | message detail |
That's
a really tough question. On the one hand, Metroid is definitely the
most "hardcore" there, so it shouldn't be hurt as bad by the far more
casual DKC/LttP, but on the other hand, Metroid has never done well in
SFF situations before while Mario Kart is pretty untested. I have no idea what to think there, but it probably won't be close either way. --- http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
greatone10 | Posted 5/5/2009 9:33:42 PM | message detail |
Although
if this really due to the Nintendo split, Galaxy's fate is only going
from bad to worse, unless Brawl is ultra weak and we don't know yet due
to it's **** competition. --- Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09. Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on. |
creativename | Posted 5/5/2009 9:34:03 PM | message detail |
.
I still think Halo 3 is leagues above Halo 1 and 2, if only because the
360 is so much more accepted on this site than the Xbox ever was. Hmm...interesting point. Though I still think it won't come close to Fallout 3. Think L4D being stronger than Halo also has an outside shot. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/5/2009 9:34:25 PM | message detail |
From: Iubaris | #017 Have you ever played CoD4? Please do, it is a great game. I'm not sure what it is about the game, but it definitely doesn't feel like all of the other current gen FPS games. --- http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/5/2009 9:35:12 PM | message detail |
Do people even care about Halo 3? It like...dissapeared after CoD4 showed up. |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/5/2009 9:35:29 PM | message detail |
From: greatone10 | #019 Street Fighter 4 can only be so weak. Brawl is definitely stronger than Galaxy, and by a good bit I reckon. --- http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/5/2009 9:35:34 PM | message detail |
That's
a really tough question. On the one hand, Metroid is definitely the
most "hardcore" there, so it shouldn't be hurt as bad by the far more
casual DKC/LttP, but on the other hand, Metroid has never done well in
SFF situations before while Mario Kart is pretty untested. I have no idea what to think there, but it probably won't be close either way. I dunno either. We already saw Super Metroid nearly lose to Super Mario Kart. We have no data on SMK at all. Though I doubt DKC is going to be doing much. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 5/5/2009 9:36:51 PM | message detail |
15
people fell off the Top 50. DarkEvilShadow, DaveTheUseless, ccbfan,
valas_hune, tablesandchairs, SarahFailin, BlackerMagus, PunkGag,
Theo72, Ludwig_Von_6, WalrusJump, E_Gadd, wg64Z, DarkFalconX and
Mithos17 did not have SSBB > GTA4 as yesterday's winners. 8 people scored half points and survived. Gavin_Sykes, 80Starfire08, Aecioo, expaniol, Ludwig_Von_2, leo3leo, paulg235 and SoldierTwo also did not have SSBB > GTA4 as yesterday's winners. --- Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true... |
ZFS | Posted 5/5/2009 9:36:54 PM | message detail |
Street Fighter IV is not a game that has a set floor for how weak it can be. We just saw it struggle with Persona 4 all day. --- a metal slime appears |
greatone10 | Posted 5/5/2009 9:37:12 PM | message detail |
From: BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted: 5/5/2009 9:35:29 PM | #023 Most likely that's case, but you can't ask me to give too much credit to the game that beat Persona 4 by seven votes, and never got past the 300 vote barrier at all. --- Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09. Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on. |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/5/2009 9:37:32 PM | message detail |
From: Shoenin_Kakashi | #022 That's why I'm hesitant to say for sure who gets out of that match. In my opinion, you could make a solid argument for any combination of the 4 games to advance. I have a feeling that Fallout is going to disappoint though. Call it a gut reaction. --- http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
creativename | Posted 5/5/2009 9:37:40 PM | message detail |
How about this for that sig - "Curses! Sig foiled by 7 votes. The Force grows ever stronger in creativename" --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/5/2009 9:37:55 PM | message detail |
Awesome sig bro. --- I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him. |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/5/2009 9:38:37 PM | message detail |
I
meant black turtle's sig. creative, you should contemplate giving your
victim a similar sig. It would make things more awesome around here. --- I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him. |
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/5/2009 9:39:07 PM | message detail |
How about this for that sig - "Curses! Sig foiled by 7 votes. The Force grows ever stronger in creativename" Good one, creativename! I admit, though, who would've expected SF4 to struggle with Persona 4 THE ENTIRE DAY?! --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 9:39:09 PM | message detail |
Yesterday's chart: Time | GTA IV | Persona 4 | SFIV | SSBB | Demographic EBV | 22.79% | 15.92% | 12.04% | 49.25% | (0:00-0:05) PHV | 24.16% | 14.53% | 14.70% | 46.60% | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 26.55% | 15.79% | 15.53% | 42.12% | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 27.02% | 14.17% | 12.79% | 46.03% | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 27.29% | 13.61% | 13.93% | 45.17% | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 25.69% | 11.51% | 11.72% | 51.09% | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 25.35% | 12.38% | 13.08% | 49.18% | (22:00-24:00) Haha, that's quite an ASV for Brawl, especially the leap from the DSV. The night vote really hit it hard, too. GTA IV had a bad board vote but gradually went up until the ASV, where it dipped a little bit. Persona 4 had a good board vote and a strong night vote, but the ASV owned it. SFIV had a bad board vote, good first night vote, bad morning vote, and awful ASV. It was just slightly less awful than Persona 4 and that made the difference. Yesterday's stats: Super Smash Bros. Brawl – 50.00% Grand Theft Auto IV – 35.76% Street Fighter IV – 22.14% Persona 4 – 22.13% For the record, Wind Waker got 34.36% on Melee. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
BDawg | Posted 5/5/2009 9:39:17 PM | message detail |
2007-2009 division more like I'm out of touch division. --- Should I start running now? |
creativename | Posted 5/5/2009 9:40:18 PM | message detail |
Street Fighter 4 can only be so weak. Brawl is definitely stronger than Galaxy, and by a good bit I reckon. HM is right. When a game does that bad, there's pretty much no limit to how weak it is. I mean it did so bad it made me question if Brawl was SFFing! But yes, all indications are that Brawl is quite a big stronger than Galaxy (as most expected), and will likely SFF bad. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/5/2009 9:40:30 PM | message detail |
You
also have to remember that SF4 was dealing with the site's most popular
fighting game (suck it elitists) while Persona really stood out. You
had 2 fighting games and an action game, all 3 current gen games,
against a PS2 RPG. Persona lucked out in getting probably the best
position for it in this division. --- http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 9:41:04 PM | message detail |
oh snap 25 vote cut by mario --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif |
BDawg | Posted 5/5/2009 9:41:21 PM | message detail |
Look at that call of duty power hour wearing off. --- Should I start running now? |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 9:41:44 PM | message detail |
What the heck? Galaxy just cut 25 votes out of nowhere. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
greatone10 | Posted 5/5/2009 9:42:03 PM | message detail |
Disgaea
also got the best case scenario for it's division, and all it did was
humiliate double SFFed Fire Emblem and still looked like crap. Street
Fighter IV is just a giant turd. --- Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09. Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on. |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 9:42:06 PM | message detail |
your days are numbered CoD --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/5/2009 9:42:25 PM | message detail |
Looks like Mario finally finished his meatball sandwich. --- I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 9:42:38 PM | message detail |
CoD4 dropped off by 60 votes on that last update. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/5/2009 9:42:54 PM | message detail |
2nd
most popular fighting game! Melee is the first. But yeah, I'm almost
certain that the Melee hardcore fighter fanbase is larger than SF2's on
Gamefaqs, and Brawl's is probably larger than SF2's as well,
despite all the complaints about how it was designed to eliminate the
possibility of playing it seriously. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
ZFS | Posted 5/5/2009 9:43:01 PM | message detail |
Yeah.
It's hard to argue that Brawl isn't the stronger game at this point.
Galaxy isn't doing completely terrible here, given that COD4 was always
looking to be legitimately strong, but it's probably a decent distance
off from TP and Brawl. --- a metal slime appears |
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/5/2009 9:44:03 PM | message detail |
I'll
stand by Brawl > Melee to the death. I still don't understand the
logic behind Melee being stronger. Noone wants to explain it when I ask. --- http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 9:44:25 PM | message detail |
TP got 62.32% on FFXII, and Brawl got 64.24% on GTA IV. Who you got between FFXII and GTA IV? --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
greatone10 | Posted 5/5/2009 9:44:51 PM | message detail |
I personally don't think Brawl and Melee will be far apart at all. --- Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09. Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on. |
creativename | Posted 5/5/2009 9:44:53 PM | message detail |
Melee is more respected than Brawl. I think pretty much all would agree it's stronger. It just has a better rep. --- gamefaqscontests.com gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
ZFS | Posted 5/5/2009 9:45:03 PM | message detail |
FFXII should take that one without much trouble, I'd think. --- a metal slime appears |