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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 704

UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/5/2009 5:05:47 AM | message detail
What's the matter, scared?



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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"ToS reminds of my mother. It goes down a lot after 1:00 AM." -GrapefruitKing
MeteorMercenary | Posted 5/5/2009 7:26:02 AM | message detail
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Meteor Mercenary, the legend of legends.
paulg235 | Posted 5/5/2009 7:30:16 AM | message detail
Surely you could've thought of something better than that, Ulti.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/5/2009 7:47:12 AM | message detail
Guaranteed paulg only found this when he tried making a topic himself and got error message'd

And no, I couldn't have used something better. Wolf annoying the piss out of everyone is one of Brawl's few saving graces.
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"ToS reminds of my mother. It goes down a lot after 1:00 AM." -GrapefruitKing
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 7:48:40 AM | message detail
how is that sub 10% prediction for persona going, ulti
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/5/2009 7:50:29 AM | message detail
Going awesome OR MAYBE NOT WHAT THE HELL STREET FIGHTER 4 WHY ARE YOU DOING SO GODDAMN BAD
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"ToS reminds of my mother. It goes down a lot after 1:00 AM." -GrapefruitKing
FastFalcon05 | Posted 5/5/2009 9:15:52 AM | message detail
Wolf annoying the piss out of everyone is one of Brawl's few saving graces.

And it's online. Barely barely barely, but it is online. Maybe the next game can be the brawl we were waiting for.
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One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. 4983-4640-3352 Brawl Code
Big Bob | Posted 5/5/2009 9:28:15 AM | message detail
Pfft, real men use Sonic and spams his "You're too slow!" taunt.
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Want to help out a cult classic doomed to failure in this contest?
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49181355
paulg235 | Posted 5/5/2009 9:32:40 AM | message detail
Guaranteed paulg only found this when he tried making a topic himself and got error message'd

Last time I tried making a stats topic was like a week ago and I succeeded.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 5/5/2009 9:35:43 AM | message detail
I think one of out every 10 stats topic is made by ulti ..

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII
ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 5/5/2009 9:36:08 AM | message detail
Whoops, definitely meant 9 out of every 10 topics is made by Ulti .. <.<

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Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/5/2009 9:38:53 AM | message detail
I want to ask a question?

What game was the biggest snub this contest? Here are some ideas.

Star Fox
Civilization II
Baldur's Gate II
Baldur's Gate
Grim Fandango
Mario Kart DS (hey if Phoenix Wright and Pokemon Diamond/Pearl made it in...)
Panzer Dragoon Saga
Planescape: Torment
Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time
Icewind Dale (just kidding)
X-COM: UFO Defense
Star Control II
M. U. L. E.
XxSoulxX | Posted 5/5/2009 9:42:17 AM | message detail
Out of that list, MKDS would be the only one with any strength. The biggest snub is GH2/3 or Rock Band.
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Good Times,
Great Memories
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 9:43:31 AM | message detail
warcraft 3 and devil may cry are notable snubs as well
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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/5/2009 9:44:25 AM | message detail
DMC would be weaker then God of War, and Warcraft 3 would be a lot weaker then Starcraft. The GH series/RB has a much better range then those other games.
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Believe it or not, the Internet is serious business - Biolizard28
voltch | Posted 5/5/2009 9:46:50 AM | message detail
we really need to establish an official list of people who can make stats topics,or like an order so that we stop getting these silly early arguments.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/5/2009 9:47:38 AM | message detail
Why? It doesn't really matter.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
voltch | Posted 5/5/2009 9:48:47 AM | message detail
it shouldn't but to stop getting 2 topics made at similar times.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
Lopen | Posted 5/5/2009 9:48:57 AM | message detail
DMC being weaker than GoW isn't a certainty. DMC3 I'd probably take over GoW. DMC1 probably not, though.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Smurf FAQs | Posted 5/5/2009 9:49:56 AM | message detail

From: voltch | #016
we really need to establish an official list of people who can make stats topics,or like an order so that we stop getting these silly early arguments.


oh god, the last thing this place needs is an authority list for topic making. XD

Just bring back the unspoken rule of the previous topic having to be above 400 posts before someone makes a new one. Although it'd be pretty pointless since it's Ulti breaking it every time.
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(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.
XxSoulxX | Posted 5/5/2009 9:51:19 AM | message detail
There is no ****ing rule about creating these things. Who the hell cares who creates the topic? It's a public ****ing series here, and anyone who posts on this board could make a new one. Just wait until we reach around 350 posts in the old one.
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ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'. - Topaz Kitsune
Believe it or not, the Internet is serious business - Biolizard28
voltch | Posted 5/5/2009 9:52:13 AM | message detail
or better yet,just let ulti do them all and be done with it,but yeah come to think authority is stoopid,i'm stupid,sorry for my stupidity,huh,bath time.

gfaqs on da psp.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
Smurf FAQs | Posted 5/5/2009 9:54:01 AM | message detail
I don't really care who makes them, the only issue I'd have is when a lesser known user makes one and a vet comes along and overrides them. Like Ulti did the other day.
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.
voltch | Posted 5/5/2009 9:56:10 AM | message detail
anyways,CoD4 possibly the strongest FPS after goldeneye if it does well,who woulda thought it.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
Smurf FAQs | Posted 5/5/2009 9:57:33 AM | message detail
I'm sure Halo or Halo 3 would beat an SFF'd Pokemon D/P if it's weak enough to lose tomorrow. Maybe Fallout 3 too.
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/5/2009 10:11:24 AM | message detail
Some of the best moments in the contests for me were:

1972-1988
Uh, I got the first match wrong. Then I saw Metroid advance to round 2 even under the face of SFF from perhaps the worst possible opponent, which I took as a possible sign that the Metroid series was slowly becoming more SFF-resistant. Boy was I wrong. Also I loved Super Mario Bros. breaking 70%
1989-1991
I loved seeing Super Mario Bros. 3 break 70%. Aside from that, nothing much.
1992-1994
Well, there was an epic match between Super Metroid and Super Mario Kart, the atmospheric vs. the addictive. And some Sonic disappointment. And Legend of Zelda games doing awesome.
1995-1997
I got every match in this division right. My favorite match of round 2 is SM64/SotN/CT/SMW2, simply because the games in the match are so awesome. Also this is the only division that has four games which I believe worthy of "Best. Game. Ever."
1998-2000
Well, my favorite to win the contest came and impressed. But we will never forget POKEMON FEVER!!!
2001-2003
Well, I loved seeing one of my friends yell at me seeing Metroid Prime get eliminated already. And Halo's match was epic.
2004-2006
Oblivion's match was cool, and so was seeing Resident Evil 4 and Half-Life 2 kick ass.
2007-2009
Nothing yet!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 2:52:29 PM | message detail
About to need this.
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plasmabeam | Posted 5/5/2009 3:14:31 PM | message detail
How about Wii Sports as a big-time snub? Barring Nintendo SFF, I could see that doing some damage. If it were in Brawl's place, I'd take Wii Sports > GTA4 in a heartbeat.

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~Jacksonville Jaguars~
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 3:15:33 PM | message detail
what
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Lucid Faia | Posted 5/5/2009 3:24:23 PM | message detail
An on-topic 499th and 500th post? Lame.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes
2005-2008 Big Ten Champions!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 3:24:30 PM | message detail
MGS4 vs. TP/Galaxy: Who you got?
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transients | Posted 5/5/2009 3:26:02 PM | message detail
there are very few people that care who makes these topics.
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xyzzy
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/5/2009 3:26:09 PM | message detail
Tag
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/5/2009 3:26:22 PM | message detail
So uh...is Persona 4/Street Fighter 4 going to break the record for closest wire-to-wire match? The highest lead was 292 and I don't think that's going to be surpassed by the end of the match.
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I can feel it coming over me; I feel it all around me.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/5/2009 3:26:51 PM | message detail
And the only people who care who makes the topics are the people who make the topics.
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Mustache...and Green...
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 3:27:00 PM | message detail

From: KleenexTissue50 | #034
So uh...is Persona 4/Street Fighter 4 going to break the record for closest wire-to-wire match? The highest lead was 292 and I don't think that's going to be surpassed by the end of the match.


The closest before today was 403 for tos/gow, so yes.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/5/2009 3:27:16 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 5/5/2009 6:24:30 PM | #031
MGS4 vs. TP/Galaxy: Who you got?


A 3-way poll? MGS4 =p
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
RPGuy96 | Posted 5/5/2009 3:27:22 PM | message detail
Or, at least, do so 200 posts early.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 3:27:29 PM | message detail
Yeah, as long as the lead doesn't surpass the low 400s, it should set the record.

Too bad I can't bring myself to care about two games that are struggling to get 15,000 votes apiece.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/5/2009 3:27:42 PM | message detail
cmon BARLOG and EL FUERTE


You can do it man
You can kick their ass
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/5/2009 3:28:11 PM | message detail
Yeah it's kind of a pathetic record, but a record nevertheless!
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No matter what, no matter how, I know I'll make it through somehow.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/5/2009 3:28:38 PM | message detail

From: paulg235 | Posted: 5/5/2009 12:32:40 PM | #009
Guaranteed paulg only found this when he tried making a topic himself and got error message'd

Last time I tried making a stats topic was like a week ago and I succeeded.


Do you ever post in these things outside of trying to make them? Contribute something meaningful or go away, preferably the latter.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/5/2009 3:30:00 PM | message detail

From: KleenexTissue50 | Posted: 5/5/2009 6:26:22 PM | #034
So uh...is Persona 4/Street Fighter 4 going to break the record for closest wire-to-wire match? The highest lead was 292 and I don't think that's going to be surpassed by the end of the match.


Does this even count as a "match"? Either way, I *think* The Boss/Tails was closer. Not sure.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/5/2009 3:31:11 PM | message detail
No way, Tails/Boss hit like 900 or something.
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I'm gonna keep on going, I know I'll be strong.
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Big Bob | Posted 5/5/2009 3:31:23 PM | message detail
I've got a sig riding on this match, so yes, it is a match.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/5/2009 3:31:48 PM | message detail

From: Big Bob | Posted: 5/5/2009 6:31:23 PM | #045
I've got a sig riding on this match, so yes, it is a match.


You with a... sig? What?
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 3:32:18 PM | message detail
Boss/Tails reached a 900 vote lead.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 3:32:51 PM | message detail
Does this even count as a "match"? Either way, I *think* The Boss/Tails was closer. Not sure.

Nah, I'm almost positive that match got close to the 1000 mark at one point.

But as far as matches that matter (as in, that result in points), then I guess ToS/GoW has the record. I think Frog/Liquid has the record in one-on-one.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/5/2009 3:33:26 PM | message detail
Well, I prove how dumb I am yet again.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
Big Bob | Posted 5/5/2009 3:38:32 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]