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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 703

KamikazePotato | Posted 5/5/2009 1:25:04 PM | message detail
Plus Platinum's release is perfect to give DP a little boost.

I don't know, I'm not sure what to expect from any of these three. Pokemon is the big wildcard but Galaxy could not place and it wouldn't surprise me that much.

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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/5/2009 1:26:41 PM | message detail
I suppose it could, but I don't expect it to. Call of Duty 4 got 40% on Galaxy in the GotY polls (with Halo 3 around) and Half-Life 2 got 40% on Twilight Princess. However, most people would accept Twilight Princess > Galaxy (see GotC poll) and the general trend is for shooters to be (much?) weaker over time - Gears and the first two Halos in particular show that. While CoD4 could buck that trend like Half-Life 2 did, I wouldn't really expect that.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 1:28:50 PM | message detail
Again, Call of Duty 4 is still widely played today. It hasn't been forgotten because people still play it, even with CoD5 out!

Pokemon is the big wildcard but Galaxy could not place and it wouldn't surprise me that much.

That'd be one of the biggest upsets of the contest if Galaxy didn't place.
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ZFS | Posted 5/5/2009 1:29:11 PM | message detail
40% on Galaxy with another big shooter in the poll beats 40% on Twilight Princess, if you ask me. I've always said that COD4 could have gotten awfully close to Galaxy if you had taken Halo 3 out of the poll.

I also don't think Call of Duty has gone anywhere either. It's probably the biggest game of this generation, both in terms of reception and sales. There's honestly not much that Half-Life 2 can say it has up on COD4.

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/5/2009 1:29:26 PM | message detail
I'd go with HL2. Mainly because I just can't accept the king of PC FPS not being the top >_>
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/5/2009 1:31:54 PM | message detail
"That'd be one of the biggest upsets of the contest if Galaxy didn't place."

Hear, hear. Tossing all fanboy logic and "IT'S FREAKING MARIO!" aside, Galaxy is one of the few Wii titles that wasn't considered a disappointment by the fans, like Brawl and TP were (unfairly so, IMO, but that's neither here nor there), as far as I know. It's the newest Mario game, and it should do very, very well. Unlike Smash, the Mario series is capable of pulling wins that are more than convincing. D/P might give it a run for its money, but there's no way in hell it doesn't place.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 1:39:58 PM | message detail
Actually, if there's a forgotten game in the match, it's Galaxy.

Seriously, the hype for that game died off really quickly for the first major Mario title in 5 years.
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Lucid Faia | Posted 5/5/2009 1:42:48 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/5/2009 1:43:01 PM | message detail
There was Galaxy hype?

Seriously, if it hadn't gotten such rave reviews it would've been the least anticipated main Mario game ever. I barely saw any hype whatsoever.

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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/5/2009 1:43:44 PM | message detail
Galaxy didnt get hype.


It was a good Wii game.
There ya go.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 1:45:48 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2591
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/5/2009 1:46:43 PM | message detail
XFD, Lucid.
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voltch | Posted 5/5/2009 1:48:17 PM | message detail
i think games that didn't get massive hype usually benefit in the long run if their games are succesful,if there's hype then there's disppointment thus the game/chars will be weakened rather than strengthned post release,however if it actually does live up to expectations or at any rate satisfy enough peope then well,MGS4,Fallout3,time to take center stage.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 5/5/2009 1:48:26 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2591

It doesn't mean much with SSBB there.
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ZFS | Posted 5/5/2009 1:49:14 PM | message detail
Galaxy didn't get much board hype, but it got lots of attention because of how good it was. I didn't get around to until a year later, but I had always heard how great the game was. You don't hear too many people knocking the game, which is probably better than being super hyped and then getting a bunch of backlash for not living up to impossible expectations. We'll see soon.

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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/5/2009 1:49:48 PM | message detail
Galaxy didn't get much hype, but then again, how many people have called it a travesty and a disgrace for its franchise? It's worked out as the opposite of TP and Brawl, in that nobody was expecting that much of it, but it was a top-notch game, while people expected the first true Killer App ever from TP and Brawl and, obviously, they didn't live up to expectations.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/5/2009 1:49:48 PM | message detail
SMG's hype never died since it never had any to begin with, that didn't stop it from rocking the GotY.
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Smurf Alt | Posted 5/5/2009 1:50:53 PM | message detail
True enough, there tends to be a lot of negativity associate with TP and Brawl because of the ridiculous standards expected of them, Galaxy shouldn't get any of that.
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voltch | Posted 5/5/2009 1:51:06 PM | message detail
SMG in that GOTC poll really impressed me,so i backed it...before we realised how utter crap those were,but the series contest did give me little bit of hope,honestly SMG might be a hidden superpower.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 1:52:13 PM | message detail
I suppose that's true, but you don't really hear anyone talking about Galaxy anymore. You still hear people talking about Brawl more than a year later.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/5/2009 1:55:00 PM | message detail
Whenever I hear people talk about Brawl it's always

1. To say how much of a disappointment it was
2. To say how it was fun but just not as great as Melee
3. (rarely) To say it was better than Melee

All of the three inevitably cause a flame war. I'll take Galaxy's silent acclaim anyday.

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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/5/2009 1:55:48 PM | message detail
Then again, how many people still talk about SMB (the original)? I'll admit not being talked about is more important for a new game than an old one, but I still think that Galaxy isn't going to bomb or disappoint very hard, if at all.

Then, again, this is the guy who you could label as a "stupid newbie" without being too wrong, so what do I know? :p
ZFS | Posted 5/5/2009 1:56:41 PM | message detail
That makes sense. Brawl's a multiplayer game first and foremost, so it'll have more longevity than most single player games. I don't think you really hear too much talk about any Mario game, though. People just kinda wait and see what happens with Mario games instead of discussing them endlessly like Zelda or Smash Bros.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 1:57:17 PM | message detail
Brawl's gained nearly a percent in the 2 and a half hours since the ASV began. Pretty good. It may even surpass 47% at this rate, which would certainly make its performance look a lot better.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/5/2009 2:06:18 PM | message detail
"That makes sense. Brawl's a multiplayer game first and foremost, so it'll have more longevity than most single player games. I don't think you really hear too much talk about any Mario game, though. People just kinda wait and see what happens with Mario games instead of discussing them endlessly like Zelda or Smash Bros."

I had never thought about this before but...it's true. Mario games don't get too much discussion, and neither do their polls. It's weird, but the more I look at it, the truer it seems to be.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/5/2009 2:07:05 PM | message detail
If our two lovable losers go into the final hour all tied up, I'm so rallying.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/5/2009 2:11:26 PM | message detail
If our two lovable losers go into the final hour all tied up, I'm so rallying.

It's currently the closest wire to wire match, with the biggest lead being 292. The previous record is currently held by ToS > GoW for reaching a lead of 403.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/5/2009 2:12:10 PM | message detail

All of the three inevitably cause a flame war. I'll take Galaxy's silent acclaim anyday.



Ditto
transients | Posted 5/5/2009 2:13:10 PM | message detail
yikes, Galaxy overestimation up in here

good to see that SF4 morning vote is as good as usual!
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/5/2009 2:15:06 PM | message detail
I still find it funny that SFIV and P4's ASV is so bad that GTAIV is gaining a few percent points per update.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 2:16:03 PM | message detail
Yeah, losing to the morning vote outright to a cult game is bad news.

And the disparity between Brawl's ASV and every other time period (sans the board vote) is about the same as SSBM. The only difference is that SSBM stayed strong for most of the Power Hour, while Brawl died off quickly after the board vote.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/5/2009 2:18:40 PM | message detail
good to see that SF4 morning vote is as good as usual!

Yeah. Losing the morning vote outright to a cult game? That's legendarily bad. Ha ha ha ha ha ha!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/5/2009 2:19:36 PM | message detail
yikes, Galaxy overestimation up in here

I've skipped most of this topic, but I expect Galaxy to have an easy win tomorrow. Dunno if you'd consider that overestimation or not, but I'd put more faith in Galaxy than its opponents. Half-Life 2's performance is the only thing that sheds some hope on CoD4 being as strong as we last saw it, and I don't think all the Pokefear in the world helps Diamond/Pearl compete against the biggest and best Mario game of the last 12 years.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 2:21:17 PM | message detail
Anyone who doesnt think Galaxy wins tomorrow is out of their mind. The only battle is for second.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/5/2009 2:22:16 PM | message detail
=O
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
PDXRoverMech | Posted 5/5/2009 2:22:18 PM | message detail
Was Mario Galaxy really that good? Just curious.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 2:22:33 PM | message detail
So what would be a "good" percentage for Galaxy tomorrow then?
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/5/2009 2:22:54 PM | message detail
Anyone who doesnt think Galaxy wins tomorrow is out of their mind. The only battle is for second.

I have to agree. After seeing almost all the shooters bomb, I don't know what to think of COD4.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 2:23:08 PM | message detail
Was Mario Galaxy really that good? Just curious.

It'd the best 3-D Mario by a fair margin.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/5/2009 2:23:42 PM | message detail
Does CoD4 have Bauer like World at War did?
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/5/2009 2:24:44 PM | message detail
Galaxy was the best Mario game ever made.

Percents I just pulled out of nowhere:
Galaxy: 35%
Diamond: 26%
CoD2: 25%
TF2: 14%

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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/5/2009 2:25:03 PM | message detail
Poor TF2 :(
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 2:26:18 PM | message detail
I think if Galaxy scores 35%, that's a major disappointment.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 2:27:10 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #443
I think if Galaxy scores 35%, that's a major disappointment.


Its pretty stiff competition compared to this match.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/5/2009 2:28:33 PM | message detail
I still don't understand the Pokemon hype, not wanting to bring up goty polls, but I don't see it competing with second place of 2007, even if it did drop a bit since then.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 2:28:38 PM | message detail
It is, but I'm thinking it needs closer to 40% (something around TP's percentage) to be a solid performance.

HL2/FFXII/PW vs. CoD4/DP/TF2: Which pack is stronger?
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/5/2009 2:29:03 PM | message detail
Galaxy will get between 35 and 40%.
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ZFS | Posted 5/5/2009 2:29:14 PM | message detail
Super Mario Galaxy -- 40%
Call of Duty 4 -- 27%
Pokemon D/P -- 20%
Team Fortress 2 -- 13%

What I'm goin' with.

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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/5/2009 2:29:15 PM | message detail
CoD/DP/TF2
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 2:29:19 PM | message detail
If Galaxy gets 40%, I'd easily put it above Brawl.
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