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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 703

red sox 777 | Posted 5/4/2009 10:05:23 PM | message detail
I have 5 in a row (OOT-SSBM) but also 6 wrong matches in a row (1st 6 matches of the contest).
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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/4/2009 10:05:32 PM | message detail
You refuse to admit your arguments were invalid and stupid. That's why people are mocking you. You have to be able to admit when you're wrong.

Some times this is true, others it's not. My arguments for Alyx > Lara were pretty stupid and I agree with them being invalid after the fact. But arguing for GTA:SA over Oblivion is not stupid because the match was literally a toss up and could have gone either way.

But arguments for Earthbound placing or Persona placing were pretty stupid as well.
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Good Times,
Great Memories
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/4/2009 10:05:33 PM | message detail
I wish we could inline images. That paint picture that gets posted on LL of the guy in the Atlus shirt crying because of GTA4's reviews would be very appropriate today.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/4/2009 10:05:34 PM | message detail
Sorry, but this guy is cracking me up. It's not even anger-inducing, the last 150 posts or so of this topic and the last have just been hilarious.

Yup Ulti can sometimes be a hypocrite, but we still love him.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 81/112
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 5/4/2009 10:05:50 PM | message detail

Or perhaps hochi said it best like usual :)
Persona 4 is getting fourth and all who thought it would do well should be executed.


If it makes any difference, I just wanted to prove that P4 was gonna a good bit better than single digits. Which it has. It's making SFIV still look like ass, and there's no way around this.

Just sayin.
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/4/2009 10:07:19 PM | message detail
Is there any doubt Galaxy would be over 50% by now?

darn it ulti

Galaxy wouldn't be anywhere near 50% either. Give me ANY reason to believe it would.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/4/2009 10:07:52 PM | message detail
Persona is doing better then those people all saying it would get single digits

Thats enough for me.
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Lopen | Posted 5/4/2009 10:07:55 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be too confident Persona 4 ends this too far above the single digits. I could easily see it drop to 11% or so when all is said and done.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/4/2009 10:08:21 PM | message detail
Give us a reason to believe it wouldn't.
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BGE2 - Today: TP > HL2 - Points: 78/108 Vote: PW
XxSoulxX | Posted 5/4/2009 10:08:30 PM | message detail
I've got 7 in a row (FF3 > Zelda: LA - Pokemon > Zelda: MM), and a streak of 3 going on right now (4 if this match stays the way it is).
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Good Times,
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transience | Posted 5/4/2009 10:08:43 PM | message detail
I'm not sure if DP can relate to RBY. that'll be one of those things where we see what we want to see.
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xyzzy
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/4/2009 10:09:35 PM | message detail
After Solid crushed Mega Man and Zero nearly combined, you said Mega Man would win one-on-one against Solid Snake if Zero wasn't there. This was right after our bet that solid Snake would beat Mega Man. You have not admitted otherwise since.

Admit you were wrong. You're able to, right?


I don't remember saying that after the match. It's pretty absurd. I stand by my opinion that if that match was Snake/MM/Tidus/Hayabusa that Mega Man would have came first.
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creativename | Posted 5/4/2009 10:10:03 PM | message detail
Seems like I probably overshot Persona with my 13% Oracle prediction, it'll likely finish well short of that.

Okay, here, I was wrong, you happy?

Nobody was ever mad at you though :)
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/4/2009 10:10:39 PM | message detail
Smash needs to go against FF7. nothing has an early vote like it.

I'm not sure how true that is. Melee had a significantly better ASV (~52% average, 53.09% as its best hour) versus Power Hour (49.2%) or even first five minutes (51.61%). And Melee was against games better in the day (chiefly Wind Waker).

Smash/FFVII would be pretty amusing, but I don't think it would be too different from Zelda/Mario/CT vs FFVII.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/4/2009 10:11:08 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
HaRRicH | Posted 5/4/2009 10:11:11 PM | message detail
I'd take SMG to do better than this -- I was taking SMG > SSBB before this match, and SSBB's not impressing (barely improved on GTA4 and doing ~2% worse on P4 than their GotY-polls said). This is supposed to be a great time for SSBB, and it's not doing anything we haven't seen already.

I'll give it time and SMG'll have a fight no matter the case, but I still like SMG.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
charmander6000 | Posted 5/4/2009 10:11:13 PM | message detail
At this point Phoenix Wright had 13.47%, Persona 4 has 14.58%. Looks like it will end above 12%.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 81/112
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/4/2009 10:11:59 PM | message detail
So much hostility here.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/4/2009 10:12:03 PM | message detail
Oh hey, there's actually a match going on right now, guys!

Man, Brawl really dropped off hard after that big early vote. However, it's like the ONLY day vote game in this poll, so it's going to destroy everything come daybreak. If it's anything like Melee, it'll finish...eh, probably around where it is now because it's gonna keep dropping overnight. Hasn't stabilized yet.

Kinda strange that people (okay, just Albion) suddenly say GTA IV is the strongest in the series when it's going to be the one that gets blown out the most! Strangely enough, it does seem like an impressive performance. Maybe because it's actually living up to expectations and winning easily, the same reason we think Vice City did so well (though it exceeded expectations).
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transience | Posted 5/4/2009 10:12:10 PM | message detail
yeah, but nothing has a bigger drop from the opening vote to night vote than Smash. it's like Halo but a couple hours earlier.
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xyzzy
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 5/4/2009 10:12:46 PM | message detail
I think most people had Persona in the 10-12% range. The competition isn't exactly strong and there's a very devout group of closed-minded weeaboos on this site to support their obscure garbage.

LOL @ this man, pullin out the 4chan terminology
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/4/2009 10:14:01 PM | message detail
Give us a reason to believe it wouldn't.

The burden of proof is on those who make baseless claims.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/4/2009 10:14:08 PM | message detail
You can't argue aggressively for something and then hide behind the skirts of "oh we're just arguing for the sake of it", that's just completely absurd and makes you look worse than just getting a pick wrong.

Alright then, let's say Persona 4 did somehow get 2nd place. What would've happened after that?

Nothing. I seriously doubt anyone in the topic that had been arguing for Persona would've been rubbing it in everyone elses' faces. We all knew it was an extreme longshot that would've panned through by ridiculous circumstances and luck.

At least I would've done so. I make it a policy not too brag too much about pretty much anything (barring exceptions, HL2 was one) because of how variable these contests are. It's partly why I lashed out; I just couldn't believe the amount of vindictiveness over what I thought was a silly argument.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/4/2009 10:14:44 PM | message detail
I woulda bragged tbqh
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/4/2009 10:14:58 PM | message detail
Smash has a much better ASV than most of Nintendo, but it has a much worse overnight and morning than them too, so it ends up coming out to around the same thing, in terms of where it ends up compared to where it is after the power hour. We'd see some huge percentage swings though, and FFVII would put up some monstrous numbers in the 4-6 AM block.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/4/2009 10:15:12 PM | message detail
Kinda strange that people (okay, just Albion) suddenly say GTA IV is the strongest in the series when it's going to be the one that gets blown out the most! Strangely enough, it does seem like an impressive performance. Maybe because it's actually living up to expectations and winning easily, the same reason we think Vice City did so well (though it exceeded expectations).

Hey, I've been saying all along that GTA4 was the strongest, and looks like I was right about that. With a casual series like that, the most recent game is usually the strongest.

LOL @ this man, pullin out the 4chan terminology

Actually it's PBF terminology but w/e.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/4/2009 10:15:15 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/5/2009 1:05:34 AM | #104
Sorry, but this guy is cracking me up. It's not even anger-inducing, the last 150 posts or so of this topic and the last have just been hilarious.

Yup Ulti can sometimes be a hypocrite, but we still love him.


The hell did I do? I wasn't involved in any of this.
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/4/2009 10:15:24 PM | message detail
I stand by my opinion that if that match was Snake/MM/Tidus/Hayabusa that Mega Man would have came first.

Annnnd...yep, that did it. I don't even want to hear the reasoning for why Tidus/Hayabusa would turn the tides. You can't admit you're wrong when you just condemned others for it.

I'll unblock you after SSBB/SMG and we'll work out the sig-info from there.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/4/2009 10:15:39 PM | message detail
Well then I'll just pretend all the 'lol Persona' was directed at Albion only

that makes everything easier

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/4/2009 10:16:01 PM | message detail
aww snap Persona cuttin' like there ain't no tomorrow
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 5/4/2009 10:16:19 PM | message detail
Actually it's PBF terminology but w/e.

I heard it on both around the same time, so who knows. Got a good chuckle outta me regardless.
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/4/2009 10:16:22 PM | message detail
At least I would've done so. I make it a policy not too brag too much about pretty much anything (barring exceptions, HL2 was one) because of how variable these contests are. It's partly why I lashed out; I just couldn't believe the amount of vindictiveness over what I thought was a silly argument.

Why did you brag about HL2?

It was the guru favourite. You can't brag about an upset unless it's actually an upset.
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Big Bob | Posted 5/4/2009 10:17:15 PM | message detail
Actually, I think this is my biggest problem.

Calling people idiots, seriously insulting them, regardless of if they were joking or not, is not a good way to get them to make up. Yeah, it was a fanboy pick. Doesn't mean you have to deride them for it.

The initial arguments weren't antagonistic in the slightest. Throughout the contests' history, there have been many, MANY arguments like this that were brought up, with mixed results. If you guys had just done a bit of teasing and then let it go, I'm sure everyone would be fine. But calling people stupid? I know this is the internet, but come on guys, we're a community here.
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creativename | Posted 5/4/2009 10:17:22 PM | message detail
I just wanted to prove that P4 was gonna a good bit better than single digits. Which it has.

I don't think anybody in here other than Ulti was saying it would get single digits.

It's making SFIV still look like ass, and there's no way around this.

I'd say SF4 is making SF4 look like ass :) It certainly doesn't need any help. Take Persona out of this poll and SF4 still looks like ass.

Really now, acting like double digits is some moral victory is pretty amusing ;)

Anyway, this Persona stuff has been entertaining (after initially being annoying) and added to an otherwise boring match whose outcome was evident minutes in. Time to talk about the next match: Can Pokemon beat CoD4?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/4/2009 10:18:07 PM | message detail
After all the shooter bombs, I'd be surprised if Pokemon didn't win
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/4/2009 10:18:23 PM | message detail
I was wrong if I said Zero + Mega Man > Snake, but I made that account bet with certain assumptions that didn't happen anyways.

I was definitely wrong about the Snake getting 43% thing though.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/4/2009 10:18:36 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/4/2009 10:18:46 PM | message detail
Time to talk about the next match: Can Pokemon beat CoD4?

Hmm...I think it has a shot. Haven't most shooter games bombed in this contest?
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/4/2009 10:19:16 PM | message detail
Only BT would conclude from this match that GTA4 is the strongest GTA.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/4/2009 10:20:02 PM | message detail
Call me crazy, but I highly doubt D/P will have nearly the same strength as the old Pokemon games. The fad had been over for quite some time. Should still be enough for CoD4 to take first though.
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transience | Posted 5/4/2009 10:20:31 PM | message detail
Yeah, it was a fanboy pick. Doesn't mean you have to deride them for it.

in the stats topic, we expect reasonable discussion and not 'this game is going to win because I like it!'. if you're going to recoil defensively in reaction to someone making fun of you, don't speak up in the first place.

let's just move on.. I mean, really. you got obnoxious, we razzed you, it's done.
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yzzyx
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 5/4/2009 10:20:34 PM | message detail
Yeah, like you. Prove to me God exists.

*snickers* Did Ulti seriously just turn this topic into a religious discussion? This is awesome. If Ulti wants to keep makin stats topics from now on I say he should name them "Religion Stats and Discussion" from now on. Let's do this.
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/4/2009 10:20:51 PM | message detail
Yeah, like you. Prove to me God exists.

Considering all I need is the Bible to believe God exists, you wouldn't accept my "proof" anyway. But that's not what this topic is about.

Moving on.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/4/2009 10:20:51 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 5/5/2009 1:14:01 AM | #122
Give us a reason to believe it wouldn't.

The burden of proof is on those who make baseless claims.


People have asked overly-religious people (like you) to prove God's existence for years, and the answer is always "faith".
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"ToS reminds of my mother. It goes down a lot after 1:00 AM." -GrapefruitKing
RPGuy96 | Posted 5/4/2009 10:21:06 PM | message detail
The Halos haven't down well...but CoD4 showed use that it was stronger than Halo 3 (in 2007 at least). I really don't know enough about the shooter fanbase to know if people still hold in high regard (like Half-Life 2), or if it's a title that fades away with time.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/4/2009 10:21:11 PM | message detail
I seriously doubt CoD4 takes first, especially considering all the other shooters bombing...I would be surprised if Pokemon lost.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/4/2009 10:21:11 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #140
Call me crazy, but I highly doubt D/P will have nearly the same strength as the old Pokemon games. The fad had been over for quite some time. Should still be enough for CoD4 to take first though.


how exactly does CoD4 take first again
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/4/2009 10:21:48 PM | message detail
What Big Bob said...although I don't think any stats topic regulars (BT doesn't count) were the ones flat-out insulting people.


I'm not sold on DP being a lot weaker than GSC. It could challenge for first.

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/4/2009 10:21:48 PM | message detail
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/4/2009 10:22:50 PM | message detail
CoD4 was pretty huge, and unlike Halo actually had a lot of support from the users here. I would take it easily over any Halo game and probably would peg it to be around RE4 strength, if not stronger.
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