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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 703

voltch | Posted 5/5/2009 2:31:10 PM | message detail
take away Mario's support from Brawl,what is honestly left?remove the mario from SMASH and you get an empty shell of game,but take out link well vs windwaker it would have been a cruise.

honestly i think Mario is the one guy and who defines the image of the smash series,It's Mr Nintendo and pals,so in head to head i'm very tempted to favour Mr Nintendo vs his pals.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
charmander6000 | Posted 5/5/2009 2:31:29 PM | message detail
Super Mario Galaxy -- 37%
Call of Duty 4 -- 25%
Pokemon D/P -- 21%
Team Fortress 2 -- 17%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 81/112
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 5/5/2009 2:35:24 PM | message detail
Galaxy is gonna get at least 40%. Trust me. Do you honestly think there are many people that would really believe that Galaxy WASN'T one of the top tier Mario games?
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/5/2009 2:35:45 PM | message detail
I'm taking a wild guess here and saying that Galaxy can go anywhere from 38% (if it performs as expected and the competition does the same) to 44% (if it overperforms like crazy or someone bombs hard). What does everyone else say?
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 2:36:49 PM | message detail
Galaxy can surpass 40% easily if one (or two) of these games really bombs.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/5/2009 2:38:08 PM | message detail
Well if Galaxy decides to SFF Pokemon it's possible.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 81/112
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/5/2009 2:41:01 PM | message detail
A Match where GTA doesn't drop with the ASV. That's rare
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 2:41:51 PM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #457
A Match where GTA doesn't drop with the ASV. That's rare


I figured it would do better with the asv since it was newer so more kids have played it.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 2:41:58 PM | message detail
That's what happens when you get Street Fighter and a cult game involved.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/5/2009 2:43:17 PM | message detail
Unless Pokemon bombs, Galaxy hitting 40% would pretty much seal the deal against Brawl for me.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/5/2009 2:43:34 PM | message detail
Still very impressive, especially when considering the two weak games have such little support. Right now, GTAIV is only 0.1% below its peak percentage.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/5/2009 2:43:56 PM | message detail
That's what happens when you get Street Fighter and a cult game involved.

Speaking of Street Fighter...*checks poll*

It's STILL losing?! *falls on floor laughing*

This has GOT to be insulting to Street Fighter fans.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 2:44:24 PM | message detail
By the way, somebody mentioned this last night, I think, but is anyone planning on doing Stars/Turds of the Round? I did them for the last contest, so I wouldn't mind doing them again.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/5/2009 2:45:02 PM | message detail
...Wow. I just realized GTAIV might double P4 and SFIV by the end of the poll. Paragons of strength, they aren't.

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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/5/2009 2:45:58 PM | message detail
By the way, somebody mentioned this last night, I think, but is anyone planning on doing Stars/Turds of the Round? I did them for the last contest, so I wouldn't mind doing them again.

I'd like to see those again.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/5/2009 2:45:59 PM | message detail
I loved Stars/Turds. If no one else does them I'll do them myself (which means get on it, Leon!).

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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/5/2009 2:46:56 PM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9y9gqL957Bg



Damnit :/
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 2:47:02 PM | message detail
I just wanted to make sure nobody else was already planning on doing them! I'll wait 'til the next topic to do any though.

Who did them originally anyway?
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/5/2009 2:49:37 PM | message detail
Slow, I think?

And I don't see why multiple people can't do them. The more the merrier!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 2:49:51 PM | message detail
I wonder if SFIV's problem is that it's too new and so doesn't have a large userbase at GameFAQs yet.

How would RE5 be doing here?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 2:50:18 PM | message detail
Yeah, I was thinking Slow was the originator as well. Wasn't sure though.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 2:50:33 PM | message detail
Persona 4 goes over 100 again. It might keep 3rd.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/5/2009 2:51:04 PM | message detail
RE5 might be challenging for 2nd, but I'm not sure. Too new, wasn't that well-received.

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HaRRicH | Posted 5/5/2009 2:52:05 PM | message detail
Tranny and maybe charmander were recently talking about Stars/Turds. Talk to them about it, but I think you've been beaten to the punch.

Anyway, for SMG tomorrow...it's hard to pick a good percentage, but I do think CoD4 > GTA4, D/P >> SF4, TF2 > P4, and Pokemon should bother SMG to some degree. If SMG is a bit stronger than SSBB, then I'll venture that SMG gets 36%-37% tomorrow. The closer it gets to 40%, the better.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
charmander6000 | Posted 5/5/2009 2:52:39 PM | message detail
I just wanted to make sure nobody else was already planning on doing them! I'll wait 'til the next topic to do any though.

I'll do one, but it shouldn't be restricted to one person and my format will be a bit different than the usual one.


Who did them originally anyway?

Slowflake in 2003.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 81/112
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/5/2009 2:52:55 PM | message detail
And for once a GotY poll accurately predicts a match. SSBB-->Fallout 3-->GTA4 leaves SSBB getting ~65% on GTA4 and it's at 63.35% and climbing
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 2:53:54 PM | message detail
Well, you'd figure that the more recent the GOTY was, the more the proportion would hold.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/5/2009 2:54:40 PM | message detail
Hmm, just realized something.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2989

Think Mass Effect could challenge for 2nd in a few days? Yeah lol GotY polls, but being a GotY poll would've only helped Halo 3. This was at the height of BELIEVE and FINISH THE FIGHT, too. And Commander Shepard didn't do too badly for a character no one cares about.

Of course, being stuck with one of the only other WRPGs in the contest (Fallout 3) definitely hurts.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 2:55:03 PM | message detail
Which favorite in division 8 will get the highest percentage in round 1?

Super Smash Bros Brawl
Super Mario Galaxy
Metal Gear Solid 4
Fallout 3
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 2:55:53 PM | message detail
I've heard more talk about Left 4 Dead finishing 2nd than Mass Effect.

But that's the only fourpack where I haven't played any of the games and I hardly know anything about them, so I don't have a clue.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 2:55:59 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #478
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2989


I think alot of those votes were apathetic or anti Halo votes. Since there was nothing else on the poll really worth voting for.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/5/2009 2:56:28 PM | message detail
Which favorite in division 8 will get the highest percentage in round 1?

Metal Gear Solid 4.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 81/112
HaRRicH | Posted 5/5/2009 2:57:06 PM | message detail
SSBB should take that title this division. It's gonna be hard to see the others break probably 47+%.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 2:59:06 PM | message detail
Brawl and GTA IV should split first place percentages, but in terms of total percentages, I'd imagine they're the overwhelming favorites in this match.

I think Galaxy, CoD4, and DP split a decent bit.

MGS4 should be the overwhelming favorite, but I can see BioShock and Portal getting a lot of support.

Halo 3 and Fallout 3 should be the favorites for their matches.

I guess MGS4 then.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/5/2009 3:01:51 PM | message detail
GlaDOS put up 30% against Vincent with the most unrecognisable picture ever, and not being named in the game. Portal will almost certainly be able to get 24+% in that match considering LittleBigPlanet could be pushing sub 10% having got it's absolute worst opponent. No reason why Bioshock shouldn't be able to get a solid 20ish% as well looking at how well KotOR and Oblivion did.

No way will MGS4 match this percentage.
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Not even close.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 3:02:54 PM | message detail
Oh wait, I thought you were talking about prediction percentages for whatever the reason.

Yeah, no one's gonna top Brawl's performance here.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/5/2009 3:02:57 PM | message detail
Why does Bioshock have anything to do with kotor and oblivion?
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transients | Posted 5/5/2009 3:03:52 PM | message detail
P4's got this. I dunno if you'd call this impressive given the hype and that it's being doubled by GTA4, but at least it didn't completely bomb.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 3:04:54 PM | message detail
And as tranny says that, SFIV makes a 21 vote cut, and Brawl passes 46%.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/5/2009 3:06:32 PM | message detail
A quick question: How COULD P4 bomb? It pretty much had two ways to go: either it beat SOMETHING, or it got 8%. And SFIV isn't all that loved here, after all.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/5/2009 3:12:25 PM | message detail
Monster updates there...
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SSBB > GTAIV - Points: 82/108 Vote: SSBB
charmander6000 | Posted 5/5/2009 3:13:10 PM | message detail
GTAIV/SFIV/P4 > Portal/BS/LBP

Then again MGS4 won't be winning this division unless both SSBB and SMG advance to round 3.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 81/112
MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/5/2009 3:14:34 PM | message detail
What are you comparing there? I'd hesitate to take GTAIV over Portal.. at least significantly.. P4 is what, and lol SFIV.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SSBB > GTAIV - Points: 82/108 Vote: SSBB
Lopen | Posted 5/5/2009 3:14:56 PM | message detail
This isn't a victory for P4, this is a defeat of the worst kind for SF4.
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No problem!
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/5/2009 3:16:49 PM | message detail
What are you comparing there? I'd hesitate to take GTAIV over Portal.. at least significantly.. P4 is what, and lol SFIV.

GTAIV would destroy that three pack and LBP will be much more lol after MGS4 is done with it. If it doesn't get at least get close to Brawl it was no chance at winning this division unless both Brawl and Galaxy are in round 3.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 81/112
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 3:21:29 PM | message detail
SFIV's cut the lead down to 50 after tranny pulls a Slowflake.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/5/2009 3:22:16 PM | message detail
"This isn't a victory for P4, this is a defeat of the worst kind for SF4."

This. As I see it, short of being complete turbofodder, P4 could only go up, especially after ToS' good showing. It beating SF4 is more SF4's fault than anything.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/5/2009 3:23:26 PM | message detail
It's not over! Not yet!
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/5/2009 3:23:34 PM | message detail
One thing MGS4 doesn't have that Brawl has is mass appeal. There is no way a PS3 game even if it's called MGS will do what Brawl does even in a weaker pack AND with LBG being there. LBG should hurt more than help.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SSBB > GTAIV - Points: 82/108 Vote: SSBB
charmander6000 | Posted 5/5/2009 3:23:35 PM | message detail
Well Persona 4 was expected to get just under 20% against Brawl and it's currently getting about 23%.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 81/112