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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 703

UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/4/2009 7:19:34 PM | message detail
How are you supposed to fight for your country when you can't even defend yourself?


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´
"ToS reminds of my mother. It goes down a lot after 1:00 AM." -GrapefruitKing
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/4/2009 7:20:25 PM | message detail
Hire mercenaries TBH.
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But what do I know.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/4/2009 7:20:28 PM | message detail
It's almost like you camp here and wait for the last topic to hit 300.

Almost.
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No matter what, no matter how, I know I'll make it through somehow.
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif
-ElFuerte- | Posted 5/4/2009 7:23:29 PM | message detail
Time for some dynamite all over GTA IV's face.
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~It's Super Dynamic Cooking Time
EL FUERTE FLYING GIGA BUSTER
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/4/2009 7:29:13 PM | message detail

From: KleenexTissue50 | Posted: 5/4/2009 10:20:28 PM | #003
It's almost like you camp here and wait for the last topic to hit 300.

Almost.


I literally just signed on, because CERTAIN PEOPLE are clogging up the house with Dancing With the Stars -_-
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´
"ToS reminds of my mother. It goes down a lot after 1:00 AM." -GrapefruitKing
ZFS | Posted 5/4/2009 7:32:28 PM | message detail
shoryuken

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a metal slime appears
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/4/2009 7:38:25 PM | message detail
LAST HALF AN HOUR OF THE MATCH!!!

Half-Life 2 is still beating Final Fantasy XII by 2%. Even if it loses, an FPS giving a Final Fantasy game a good fight like this is a moral victory for Half-Life 2 given what has happened throughout the course of the contest.

It must be noted that Half-Life 2 is one of the few games in the tourney which I think is deserving of "Best. Game. Ever." In case I didn't say already, here are some of the games I think are deserving of that title, from each division.

1972-1988
Super Mario Bros.
1989-1991
Super Mario Bros. 3
Super Mario World
1992-1994
Zelda: A Link to the Past
Super Metroid
Final Fantasy VI
1995-1997
Chrono Trigger
Super Mario 64
GoldenEye
Final Fantasy VII
1998-2000
Metal Gear Solid
Zelda: Ocarina of Time
2001-2003
uhhhhhhhh
2004-2006
Half-Life 2
Resident Evil 4
2007-2009
Super Mario Galaxy
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/4/2009 7:41:11 PM | message detail
Even if it loses

uh
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg
XxSoulxX | Posted 5/4/2009 7:43:14 PM | message detail
It must be noted that Half-Life 2 is one of the few games in the tourney which I think is deserving of "Best. Game. Ever." In case I didn't say already, here are some of the games I think are deserving of that title, from each division.

I agree with your list.
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Good Times,
Great Memories
MnMZero | Posted 5/4/2009 7:44:28 PM | message detail
so soon?!
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/4/2009 7:55:12 PM | message detail
I guess Street Fighter II and Tetris also deserve the title to some extent due to their timelessness (is that even a word?).

BTW looking at vote totals, Twilight Princess is stronger than GoldenEye, Resident Evil 4, and Metal Gear Solid! Damn, the most recent Zelda game is a beast. My opinion is that it's overrated by somebody who would perceive it as one of the best games of all time, but it is most definetely one of the best games in this generation, especially when you consider all the content! I liked Wind Waker a tad bit more though, probably because the cel-shaded artwork is cool.

Okay, looking at tomorrow's match, Street Fighter IV could beat Grand Theft Auto IV due to franchise voting (Street Fighter > GTA, right?), but I'm sticking with my bracket. And since GTA is so crazy (GOOD THING), GTAIV gets my vote, just like San Andreas did.

Is it just me, or do I think that Vagrant Story was unfairly snubbed. Same with all Gran Turismos and Quakes and Unreal Tournaments, to be honest, as well as Guitar Heros.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/4/2009 8:14:08 PM | message detail
Tag
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
deadeyedllv | Posted 5/4/2009 8:59:24 PM | message detail
2 minutes to another GTA failure!
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Best.Game.Ever. current score: 76
Today: Zelda: Twilight Princess > Half-Life 2
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/4/2009 9:06:34 PM | message detail
Yay! Half-Life 2 beat Final Fantasy XII!

Okay, currently Super Smash Bros. Brawl is winning and Grand Theft Auto IV is in 2nd place. Who knows what will happen, though?
Lucid Faia | Posted 5/4/2009 9:09:17 PM | message detail
Brawl might win the entire contest.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes
2005-2008 Big Ten Champions!
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 5/4/2009 9:10:07 PM | message detail
tag
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Megaman703 | Posted 5/4/2009 9:10:30 PM | message detail
Somehow, I feel very obliged to post here.
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"In the game of chess you can never let your opponent see your pieces."
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/4/2009 9:23:56 PM | message detail
The updated list of the highest vote totals:

1. Super Mario Bros. 3
2. Super Mario Bros.
3. The Legend of Zelda
4. Zelda: Ocarina of Time
5. Final Fantasy VII
6. Chrono Trigger
7. Zelda: A Link to the Past
8. Super Mario World
9. Pokemon Red/Blue
10. Tetris
11. Super Smash Bros. Melee
12. Final Fantasy X
13. Final Fantasy IV
14. Super Mario 64
15. Final Fantasy VIII
16. Final Fantasy
17. Zelda: Twilight Princess
18. Sonic the Hedgehog
19. Kingdom Hearts
20. Metal Gear Solid
21. Final Fantasy VI
22. Resident Evil 4
23. GoldenEye
24. Kingdom Hearts 2
25. Metal Gear Solid 3
26. Super Metroid
27. Super Mario Kart
28. Mega Man 2
29. Pokemon Gold/Silver
30. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
31. Street Fighter II
32. Super Mario RPG
33. Mega Man 3
34. Zelda: Link’s Awakening
35. Zelda: Majora’s Mask
36. Metal Gear Solid 2
37. StarCraft
38. Half-Life 2
39. Diablo II
40. Mortal Kombat II
41. Pac-Man
42. Oblivion
43. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
44. Halo
45. Final Fantasy XII
46. Mario Kart 64
47. Zelda: Wind Waker
48. Tales of Symphonia
49. God of War
50. Knights of the Old Republic

The original aim of Twilight Princess was to "do what you couldn't do in Ocarina of Time," and it seems that being close to such a blockbuster title has drawn several votes there. Half-Life 2 also snuck into the top 40, and according to vote totals it is the 2nd strongest PC game, only being beaten by StarCraft. And while Final Fantasy XII was eliminated, it still showed that being a Final Fantasy title will always net tons of votes regardless of how different you are, and FF12 has taken over God of War's spot as the top vote getter that was eliminated.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/4/2009 9:31:33 PM | message detail
Here's how the round 1 matches will go according to vote totals.
Tetris > Mega Man 2 > Pac-Man > Donkey Kong
Super Mario Bros. > The Legend of Zelda > Metroid > Ninja Gaiden
Super Mario Bros. 3 > Sonic the Hedgehog > Street Fighter II > The Secret of Monkey Island
Super Mario World > Final Fantasy IV > Final Fantasy > Mega Man 3
Zelda: A Link to the Past > Super Metroid > Super Mario Kart > Donkey Kong Country
Final Fantasy VI > Sonic the Hedgehog 2 > Zelda: Link's Awakening > Mortal Kombat II
Final Fantasy VII > GoldenEye > Super Mario RPG > Mario Kart 64
Chrono Trigger > Super Mario 64 > Yoshi's Island > Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
Pokemon Red/Blue > Metal Gear Solid > Pokemon Gold/Silver > Zelda: Majora's Mask
Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Final Fantasy VIII > StarCraft > Final Fantasy IX
Final Fantasy X > Kingdom Hearts > Metal Gear Solid 2 > Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
Super Smash Bros. Melee > Diablo II > Halo > Zelda: Wind Waker
Metal Gear Solid 3 > Oblivion > Tales of Symphonia > World of Warcraft
Zelda: Twilight Princess > Resident Evil 4 > Kingdom Hearts 2 > Half-Life 2
XIII_rocks | Posted 5/4/2009 9:33:33 PM | message detail
XD @ Ulti's wife watching Strictly Come Dancing
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Justice for FD
"This topic is now about Renee Walker aka Rack Bauer." - LostHisHardcore http://i39.tinypic.com/2ps1s76.jpg
plasmabeam | Posted 5/4/2009 9:37:32 PM | message detail
More like "Dancing With Minimum-Wage Celebrities," m i rite?

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~Jacksonville Jaguars~
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/4/2009 9:38:45 PM | message detail
taggage for later
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86/112 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Smash Bros. Brawl > GTA IV | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
XIII_rocks | Posted 5/4/2009 9:40:28 PM | message detail
Doesn't Dancing With The Stars get our cockney bloke (who's name escapes me)? Only good thing about that show the two times I watched it.
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Justice for FD
"This topic is now about Renee Walker aka Rack Bauer." - LostHisHardcore http://i39.tinypic.com/2ps1s76.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/4/2009 9:44:48 PM | message detail
We need to get rid of some of these new users like KP and Fayt. At least Biolizard doesn't post here anymore
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 5/4/2009 9:45:05 PM | message detail
Masato_Tanaka
Posted 5/4/2009 9:43:39 PM
message detail persona 4 is still the coolest
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko

transience
Posted 5/4/2009 9:43:47 PM
message detail play Street Fighter 4
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png

KleenexTissue50
Posted 5/4/2009 9:43:49 PM
message detail Brawl sucks, Street Fighter 4 sucks, Persona 4 sucks, stats topic sucks, BT especially.
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I'm gonna keep on going, I know I'll be strong.
http://i195.photobucket.com/albums/z114/Javer8000/FanimeCon2008/Sandbag.jpg




best chain of 3 closing posts ever IMO
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
transience | Posted 5/4/2009 9:45:49 PM | message detail
Tim

Tim was always a joke. you guys weren't joking.

wanna know how many people made "attn tranny" topics when Tim got hammered? like a dozen people. and I had fun with it!

same with Shadow Hearts. just let it go. BT is obnoxious, we all know this. stop responding to someone who's trying to be annoying.
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/4/2009 9:45:55 PM | message detail
good night sweet persona
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 5/4/2009 9:46:03 PM | message detail
Street Fighter IV is almost done its comeback leaving Persona 4 all the more lol worthy...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 81/112
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/4/2009 9:46:09 PM | message detail
Brawl sucks, Street Fighter 4 sucks, Persona 4 sucks, stats topic sucks, BT especially.



Good boy, need more men like you.
Go to hell
No opinion
Good Boy
Good Boy
ZFS | Posted 5/4/2009 9:46:15 PM | message detail
Everyone's fine so long as they don't argue for a game they like! Then we all get dumb.

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a metal slime appears
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/4/2009 9:46:23 PM | message detail
*watching 24*




.......Holy ****
transience | Posted 5/4/2009 9:46:41 PM | message detail
new users like KP

he's been in this topic longer than you.

unless you want to excuse yourself as well...?
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 5/4/2009 9:46:57 PM | message detail
17 people fell off the Top 50 today. setyouupthebomb, JgCuBe, kenrmcha19, TheKnightOfNee, stalfo18, SenelCoolidge, Heroic_Rufus, Heed44utmost, rogueskateboard, Salient_0, GameCuber018, IXKyotoXI, Habito, Dasmopp, Judicious_F, ThisSrGuy and Omnipot3nt did not have Zelda:TP > HL2 as yesterday's winners.

18 people scored half points and survived. Former first place menji76, _gloomy, Ludwig_Von_2, mentalmike_2000, spence1891, paulg235, Dracosage, LancelotBT, ccbfan, SarahFailin, Galahad5, BlackerMagus, Axem_King, Ludwig_Von_6, DarkFalconX, Jayman4545, gogokainomega and Tendo128 also did not have Zelda:TP > HL2 as yesterday's winners.

1 person scored a single point and lived. Theo72 had something vaguely similar to Zelda:TP > HL2 as yesterday's winners.
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Shall I take you with me? To the place in this town where wishes come true...
transience | Posted 5/4/2009 9:46:57 PM | message detail
no 24 spoilers please
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xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/4/2009 9:47:04 PM | message detail
Okay, currently Super Smash Bros. Brawl is winning and Grand Theft Auto IV is in 2nd place. Who knows what will happen, though?

Brawl stays in first, GTA IV stays in second. Easy >_>

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86/112 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Smash Bros. Brawl > GTA IV | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/4/2009 9:47:27 PM | message detail
Tran Man, up for SF4 after I finish watching the Bauer Hour of Power?
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/4/2009 9:48:05 PM | message detail
I didnt say a spoiler.


and 24 doing something isnt really spoilers <_<
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 5/4/2009 9:48:20 PM | message detail
Everyone's fine so long as they don't argue for a game they like! Then we all get dumb.

That's generally how subjectivity works unfortunately :/
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/4/2009 9:48:35 PM | message detail
I'm so glad I didn't stick with SF4 in second place. What a horrible performance.

tranny, you better still be doing winners and turds.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´
"ToS reminds of my mother. It goes down a lot after 1:00 AM." -GrapefruitKing
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/4/2009 9:49:01 PM | message detail
Next year I'm going to argue against all my favorite characters.
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I've been waiting for this moment all my life - it's my destiny.
http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 5/4/2009 9:49:05 PM | message detail
Time to hype Pokemon Diamond and Pearl for second.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 81/112
red sox 777 | Posted 5/4/2009 9:49:12 PM | message detail
Lost in all this is that Brawl's come down to earth quite a lot. Below 47% now- I'm thinking we get below 43%, maybe even 42%, tonight, before Brawl goes back up with the day vote.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/4/2009 9:49:24 PM | message detail

From: transience | #032
new users like KP

he's been in this topic longer than you.

unless you want to excuse yourself as well...?


I don't remember him being here before 2007
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/4/2009 9:49:37 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
charmander6000 | Posted 5/4/2009 9:49:47 PM | message detail
tranny, you better still be doing winners and turds.

If he doesn't, I will...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBB > GTAIV Points: 81/112
ZFS | Posted 5/4/2009 9:49:58 PM | message detail
gilgamesh vs. krelian villains contest the return

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a metal slime appears
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 5/4/2009 9:50:14 PM | message detail
I don't remember him being here before 2007

Are you serious? I've seen him on Board 8 for god know's how long, and the stats topic in general since at least 06.
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
HaRRicH | Posted 5/4/2009 9:50:32 PM | message detail
Kleenex, if this was Facebook, I would have Liked your 500-post.


Also, BT, you of all people don't need to encourage getting rid of people, considering how many of us would like for you to stay quiet or stay out of the topics. I imagine you would be the first person out of here if the topic actually actively got rid of people.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/4/2009 9:50:55 PM | message detail
persona spike !!!
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/4/2009 9:50:57 PM | message detail
From: ZFS | #043
gilgamesh vs. krelian villains contest the return

who cares both are lame
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No matter what, no matter how, I know I'll make it through somehow.
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif