GameFAQs Contests

http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/ps2/home/915253.html

Just...just look at those My Games.

Persona 4 could bomb horribly and still be closer to ToS than Shadow Hearts.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

"Persona 4 was highly acclaimed by critics inside and outside Japan and sold about 560,000 copies worldwide since its release, making it the best-selling Megami Tensei game so far.[11][12] "

That was written before its Europe release in march 09, too.
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Tales of Symphonia is much, much more popular then Personal 4, or whatever it's called. I actually saw ToS in my store when it came out.
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/ps2/my/945498.html

Persona 4 nearly triples the most popular Shadow Hearts "Own it"
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you can't compare it to an old game. you might as well compare it to Lost Odyssey

http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/xbox360/home/928334.html

or TWEWY

http://www.gamefaqs.com/portable/ds/home/935689.html

both of which have more numbers than Persona 4. and both of which got killed in the character battle. hell, the former lost to a second-tier Tales title in the 2008 GOTY.
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xyzzy

I mean honestly I thought DQ8 was a more popular PS2 RPG and even that I don't think I could take here. Though I'd definitely give it much better chances
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

oh and Persona 4's US numbers are something like 110k last I saw. don't listen to Albion's lies
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xyzzy

Besides, wasn't ToS in a similar position as Persona 4 is in now?

Not exactly. You put Persona 4 in the position ToS was in, and I have no doubt it gets destroyed.

The only reason Persona 4 is even mentionable here is because Brawl has the chance at making GTA4/SF4/P4 fight over a rather low number of votes, and the less votes there are, the better it is for P4.

Replace Brawl with a decent midcarder instead that wouldn't have a chance at running up a big % and Persona 4 should be doomed.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile

http://vgchartz.com/games/game.php?id=24780&region=All

220k.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

OK, but after seeing what Tales of Symponia did in addition to Grand Theft Auto bombing left and right, I'm on the Persona 4 upset train. GTAIII got last place humiliatingly easily, and San Andreas got LAST PLACE in a fourpack in which it was the OVERWHELMING favorite to win. And Vice City barely beat Metroid Prime with Paper Mario in the poll. Suffice it to say, I'm putting absolutely zero faith in Grand Theft Auto 4.

I disagree with this statement. The way I see it, Vice City OVERPERFORMED, and San Andreas was not the favorite to win in that match to begin with. Oblivion was. San Andreas was supposed to get a respectable second. ToS only did so well because all other 3 games were affected by SFF. (you'll notice there's no Nintendo and no Square in that poll to take a lot of votes.)

Now we've got this match, you've got a Nintendo representative, and like others have said Persona 4 is not as big as ToS in any aspect, and it doesn't have the fortune of all the other games in the poll hurting each other. You'll see the fanbases run to their one game, and GTA's fanbase is WAY bigger than P4's.

Also, GTA3 shouldn't have been expected to do well; the other 3 are much more respected.

We'll just have to wait and see anyway, but that's my take on things.
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Current Score: 80
Today's pick: Twilight Princess > Half-Life 2

From: transients | #207
oh and Persona 4's US numbers are something like 110k last I saw. don't listen to Albion's lies

When did I lie? I said it sold about 600k. I never said in America.
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The GTA fanbase hates GTA4 so if you're going to rely on them, GTA4 is screwed.
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Demyx is better than Axel.

VGChartz is pretty inflated there. It's probably closer to 150k.
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No matter what, no matter how, I know I'll make it through somehow.
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Why is this argument even happening? ****, Earthbound is much more popular then this relatively unknown game. Why do you think it has a shot at third place, let alone actually placing?
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Good Times,
Great Memories

Coming from a guy that hyped Earthbound, P4 has no chance as I wouldn't take it over Phoenix Wright.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: TP > HL2 - Points: 78/108 Vote: PW

hell, I'll grant you 200k

Brawl - 3,000,000
GTA - 3,000,000
SF4 - 1,000,000
P4 - 200,000

you'd need one HELL of a fanbase here to place. I won't count it out completely but it's not something you can argue logically. you just have to pick it and pray.

this is a worse pick than Phoenix Wright over Half-Life and FF12.

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xyzzy

From: KleenexTissue50 | #213
VGChartz is pretty inflated there. It's probably closer to 150k.

Atlus themselves said it sold 500k worldwide a couple months ago. Its not inflated.
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this is a worse pick than Phoenix Wright over Half-Life and FF12.

I have no idea how you can come to this conclusion. I'd take Persona 4 to be stronger than Phoenix Wright and Half-Life 2 and FF12 would easily beat GTA4 and SF4.
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Demyx is better than Axel.

Yeah, the only way Persona 4 advances tomorrow is if all 21,000 people who voted for it in the PS2 GotY poll vote for it and for Brawl to get ~50% of the vote.
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I'm gonna keep on going, I know I'll be strong.
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San Andreas: 16 Million
Oblivion: 6 Million
God of War: 2 million
Tales of Symphonia: 500k

Let's not bring up sales.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

I disagree with this statement. The way I see it, Vice City OVERPERFORMED, and San Andreas was not the favorite to win in that match to begin with. Oblivion was. San Andreas was supposed to get a respectable second. ToS only did so well because all other 3 games were affected by SFF. (you'll notice there's no Nintendo and no Square in that poll to take a lot of votes.)

Now we've got this match, you've got a Nintendo representative, and like others have said Persona 4 is not as big as ToS in any aspect, and it doesn't have the fortune of all the other games in the poll hurting each other. You'll see the fanbases run to their one game, and GTA's fanbase is WAY bigger than P4's.

The fact remains that San Andreas embarrassed itself by getting last in a fourpack that it was supposed to have advanced from. And Street Fighter II lost to Sonic 1. Even with Sonic being shown to be weak...SFII still lost easily. And it has no excuses. The other two options in the poll were absolute fodder.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

No, GTA4's sales are VERY good, reviews are (too) good, and I don't know what fanbase you're talking about that hates it. I addressed this already.

I agree with Soul, there's no chance for P4. I will be surprised if it gets third.
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Current Score: 80
Today's pick: Twilight Princess > Half-Life 2

you guys are the ones bringing up sales! all i said was that if you're gonna use sales as a barometer, it is dead.
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xyzzy

No, GTA4's sales are VERY good, reviews are (too) good, and I don't know what fanbase you're talking about that hates it. I addressed this already.

San Andreas: 16 Million
Oblivion: 6 Million
God of War: 2 million
Tales of Symphonia: 500k

Whoops!
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

People in support of Persona 4: ToS impressing on GTA:SA or GTA:SA most likely being stronger than GTA4 doesn't hold much bearing by themselves. Why should P4 match ToS? We have also seen our older polls be warped (kindly put), but we don't have much reason to doubt our most recent GotY-polls. Why should plenty-relevant polls from this year be forgotten so P4 can go from 34.51% to 50+% on GTA4?
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

I really don't think even last year's GotY polls should be trusted. We've already seen many 'big name' games overperform and demolish games they really shouldn't have (Gears of War, FFXII ect.). GTAIV probably overperformed by a decent amount in its poll.

And P4 doesn't need to match ToS. GTAIV isn't touching SA with a ten-foot poll, and my faith in SFIV doing anything while a MUCH more popular fighting game is right there in the poll is very limited.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Well, my view on this is that Persona 4 won't be good for more than say 18%. Maybe 20% max, but that's really, really pushing it. I'm sure a lot would say even 18% is too high.

At this point, the strengths of GTA4 and SF4 are actually almost irrelevant so long as one won't crush the other, it all comes back to Brawl. It's up to Brawl to decide if 18% is good enough for second. If Brawl can only get 40% of the vote, than no, it definitely isn't, but if Brawl starts approaching 50%, all of a sudden 18% gives you a chance.

However, it's still a really, really bad chance. Persona 4 is in probably the best situation it could ever ask for realistically, and even with it, I'd say it's chances of advancing are in the single digits, but that is better than the zero I would have said earlier.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile

ten-foot poll

oh god this is the worst unintentional typo pun ever

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

While sales are not the end-all deciding factor, if you don't think they play a role you're crazy.

While SA got last, it was a close last, and you seem to keep overlooking that. Oblivion/God of War hurt it quite badly that match.

I think it's obvious now that supporting Persona is just a pipe dream of some huge fans of the game, which apparently there are a lot around here.
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Current Score: 80
Today's pick: Twilight Princess > Half-Life 2

Are we really arguing Persona to advance


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a metal slime appears

While SA got last, it was a close last, and you seem to keep overlooking that. Oblivion/God of War hurt it quite badly that match.

I know we all like to downplay ToS' victory as much as possible around here, but come on. You're telling me three games from entirely different genres - one of them not even on the same console - hurt each other that much?

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

While sales are not the end-all deciding factor, if you don't think they play a role you're crazy.

Oh, come now. The best-selling game in SA/GoW/ToS/Oblivion lost and you're still playing the sales card?
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

If huge names played such a role though, Gears would have never got close to FF12 and GTA wouldn't have gotten worse-than-60-40'd by Fallout 3 (which then hung tough with a SSB and MGS game for two polls straight). GTA4 was also closer to L4D than FO3, so I don't buy that its brand-name made it really over-perform there.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

After Tales of Symphonia advanced, it was inevitable that people would talk up Persona's chances. Then again, I was sure ToS wouldn't advance either.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Gears of War was exactly one of the games I had in mind when typing that. It had a Halo 3-esque marketing push and sales right before the poll. It WAS a big name, for a while.

And I know GTAIV did pathetically in that poll. The fact that I think it overperformed should tell you how much respect I have for it. >_>

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

I can kinda understand why people are doing it, but Tales winning a match doesn't mean every cult game under the sun suddenly has a decent chance at advancing. It would take a pretty major bomb from GTAIV and SFIV for Persona to advance there.

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a metal slime appears

What are we discussing here, exactly? >_>
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.

Well it's more than just ToS. There's also KOTOR, Okami, and Shadow of the Colossus (let's ignore poor Wrighto). Cult games have just been doing better than we expected.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

From: PartOfYourWorld | #237
What are we discussing here, exactly? >_>

the fact persona 4 is advancing tomorrow
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What are we discussing here, exactly? >_>

GTAIV overperformed a bit in the GotY poll

its gonna bomb

probably still enough to take 2nd but I expect nothing from it

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

tales of symphonia proved it doesnt have to be logical to win
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Even with Okami doing better than expected -- and it was largely Halo 2 and World of Warcraft being weak -- it still was a good distant fourth. You could have used all those games to say Phoenix Wright would do well, too. Persona have a very, very slim chance to advance tomorrow. It's not worth arguing beforehand.

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a metal slime appears

Sales play a factor. If you come to the site, and you aren't a huge fan of any of the games in particular, there's no way you're going to vote P4 because you've never heard of it. You're going to vote for something you've heard of. Sales contribute to that.

And yes, San Andreas, Oblivion, and God of War all target the same audience, whereas ToS is targeting a different group. Is that so hard to swallow? No one is as loyal to a genre as an RPG fan. There's a lot more crossover elsewhere.
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Current Score: 80
Today's pick: Twilight Princess > Half-Life 2

Why do people keep bringing up Symphonia anyway. I even had Symphonia in my bracket until changing it out for Oblivion(which ended up being for the worse point wise, bleh) and I know at least a quarter of people knew it had a chance there(over 10% even had it in their brackets in the guru). It wasn't some OMG I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS result it was just "Huh, it really did it" result
Persona 4 definitely falls more under the former
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Tales, with its 500k american sales, clobbering GTA:SA, with its 10 million american sales, disproves that theory.
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edit: should've said jRPG fan. While Oblivion is an RPG, it's a wRPG and isn't traditional by any means of the word.

Example; a Halo fan will play Oblivion, but will not play ToS. That's true 99% of the time.
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Current Score: 80
Today's pick: Twilight Princess > Half-Life 2

And yes, San Andreas, Oblivion, and God of War all target the same audience, whereas ToS is targeting a different group. Is that so hard to swallow? No one is as loyal to a genre as an RPG fan. There's a lot more crossover elsewhere.

I would honestly love to hear how San Andreas and Oblivion target the same audience.
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Demyx is better than Axel.

Time to use Phoenix Wright to prove Persona has no chance tomorrow

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a metal slime appears

Have there been any situations where a game with ~150,000 or less sales beat a game with over a million sales, and wasn't on a console that you can emulate easily?

I don't really care about sales and all but if you can't find an example for that you should probably stop saying they don't matter
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

I actually do think that Phoenix right now is the biggest thing against the Persona 4 train. Under 12%? If you use that to give Persona 12% in the next match, then Brawl is going to need to break 68-70% to make this possible.

...What are expectations for Brawl anyway? I always figured somewhere around 45%, but I'm not really basing that on much.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile