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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 702

KamikazePotato | Posted 5/4/2009 2:56:02 PM | message detail
Oblivion: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2626
Disgaea (compared to how it did in the match): http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1488
Okami: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2622

I think for the GotY polls, people often just vote for the biggest name.

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HaRRicH | Posted 5/4/2009 2:57:48 PM | message detail
Phoenix Wright has been running off word of mouth for years (and I think it's been louder here than P4 anyway), and look where it's gotten it today. P4's word of mouth in five months isn't doing that.
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MnMZero | Posted 5/4/2009 3:00:25 PM | message detail
ToS: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1870

Wut? How is that poor? That's the evidence I was using to show strength! Try again! :)

And yeah, I guess there is no trend either way. I simply don't think Persona has the strength to hang with the other 2.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/4/2009 3:00:42 PM | message detail
Personally, I think people in general would be hesitant to vote for any text adventure game in a poll. I mean...they're more books than games, practically.

I don't know, whenever I try to rank PW games on a list I don't know where to put them and usually just end up leaving them off. The characters are fine, as they're characters, but I find it hard to imagine the general populace voting for Phoenix Wright as a game. If the poll was titled Best Storyline Ever, it would do fine, but otherwise...

All speculation, but I don't think it's that far off the mark. Plus...you know...Zelda and FF and Half-Life in the poll.

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voltch | Posted 5/4/2009 3:01:20 PM | message detail
then again PW is DS game,a popular one,but it got treated so badly in europe what with screwed up release dates for trials and tribulations.
heck in EU i'd say professor layton is strong after getting these chicks in it's ads http://functioningalcoholic.files.wordpress.com/2008/12/girls_aloud.jpg
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/4/2009 3:01:56 PM | message detail
Wut? How is that poor? That's the evidence I was using to show strength! Try again! :)

Considering Paper Mario couldn't come close to Metroid Prime (which ToS is now projected to beat), and MP2 is definitely the weakest in the series, and the low votals for that poll all-around...yeah, it definitely wasn't the most inspiring poll.

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/4/2009 3:05:58 PM | message detail
If you throw out MGS: Substance, then Persona 3: FES should be thrown out against God of War 2. They're both directors cuts.

That wasn't FES...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > HL2 Points: 77/108
voltch | Posted 5/4/2009 3:07:25 PM | message detail
GOWII is probably weak as hell though.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
charmander6000 | Posted 5/4/2009 3:08:23 PM | message detail
GOWII is probably weak as hell though.

Which makes things look even worse for P4.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > HL2 Points: 77/108
voltch | Posted 5/4/2009 3:10:04 PM | message detail
ya think?If anything one can't be too careful,this contest has a habit of doing unpredictable things.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
charmander6000 | Posted 5/4/2009 3:11:47 PM | message detail
The gap between GTAIV and Persona 4 is so large that if the upset did happen I would floored, no upset in the past would come close here.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > HL2 Points: 77/108
voltch | Posted 5/4/2009 3:12:45 PM | message detail
i wouldn't take P4 for over 16% or for 2nd,however for 3rd,i can see it happen.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/4/2009 3:13:07 PM | message detail
Tomorrow's poll probably looks pretty similar to todays, only with Brawl having about 5-6% more than TP and SF4/GTA4 having 5-6% less than FF12/HL2 (combined).
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/4/2009 3:14:01 PM | message detail
If it gets third it would be at SFIV's expense and even then it would be shocking to see it lose.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > HL2 Points: 77/108
MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/4/2009 3:20:21 PM | message detail
I thought Persona hype was sarcasm.

Well.. I guess I should stay out of this one. The stuff I'd say would be far too degrading.
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BGE2 - Today: TP > HL2 - Points: 78/108 Vote: PW
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/4/2009 3:22:39 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-29.jpg

No real standouts there.
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voltch | Posted 5/4/2009 3:23:23 PM | message detail
there's no way P4 takes second but tbh,I'd have taken TWEWY to round 2 if it was in instead of P4.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/4/2009 3:25:26 PM | message detail
No ryu for SF4, huh.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/4/2009 3:26:03 PM | message detail
SSBB is going to get 50% here.

Like ew, look at all those 4s. Screw that.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/4/2009 3:27:12 PM | message detail
I specifically made SF4 Ryu-less so I could give Persona 4 a better chance.

Plus, Ken is the real hero of SF4. Or villain. Depends on how you look at things.
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voltch | Posted 5/4/2009 3:27:12 PM | message detail
non roman numeral loses.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
voltch | Posted 5/4/2009 3:29:14 PM | message detail
had we kept the whole four theme going,replace SSB with either DMC4 or MGS4,how would you select the top 2?
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/4/2009 3:29:18 PM | message detail
Bleh, match pictures aren't going to make that big of a difference.. especially in a match like this.

I can't picture many people NOT voting SF4 because Ryu isn't there. The thought sounds silly.
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BGE2 - Today: TP > HL2 - Points: 78/108 Vote: PW
transients | Posted 5/4/2009 3:31:28 PM | message detail
"hmm, what should I vote for. there's no Ryu in the picture. I'll vote.. Persona 4."
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xyzzy
red sox 777 | Posted 5/4/2009 3:31:32 PM | message detail
4 LFF coming up! SSBB escapes until Nintendo reveals that it actually created a Smash game no one has ever heard of on the NES, causing Brawl to become SSB4.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/4/2009 3:32:02 PM | message detail

From: ZenOfThunder | #170
I specifically made SF4 Ryu-less so I could give Persona 4 a better chance.

Plus, Ken is the real hero of SF4. Or villain. Depends on how you look at things.


Good job Zen!
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syco_coaster | Posted 5/4/2009 3:40:59 PM | message detail
I don't think Persona 4 has a chance. Here's why:

Okami = Persona 4
Okami and Persona 4 are games that are both loved on this site. Okami put up decent numbers on Halo but it wasn't enough. Okami even had the backing of being GotY on IGN in PS2's prime, and it's been ported to the Wii. I would say Okami, with that background, should be even stronger than P4, but let's give it the benefit of the doubt.

GTA4 wins tons of awards, gets ridiculously good reviews, and has virtually nothing to steal its votes in this upcoming round. Halo 2 beat Okami even while being in the same poll as MGS3.

Okami was the only "anime" game in its division but it couldn't stand on that alone. P4 is the same as far as I see it. The talk around here seems to be that GTA4 is crap, but here is the ONLY place I've heard that. Everywhere else it's great.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/4/2009 3:45:26 PM | message detail
Disgaea level should be Persona 4s absolute minimum here, and it had like 15%. I can't believe some people have it getting single digits xD. But Persona 4 was a bigger release for Atlus then Disgaea in both sales and acclaim, and PErsona has the rabid fanbase of Disgaea here.
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transients | Posted 5/4/2009 3:47:46 PM | message detail
I'm looking forward to hearing an argument in favor of Persona from somebody who doesn't love the hell out of it.
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xyzzy
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/4/2009 3:48:08 PM | message detail
I don't think Persona 4 has a chance. Here's why:

Okami = Persona 4
Okami and Persona 4 are games that are both loved on this site. Okami put up decent numbers on Halo but it wasn't enough. Okami even had the backing of being GotY on IGN in PS2's prime, and it's been ported to the Wii. I would say Okami, with that background, should be even stronger than P4, but let's give it the benefit of the doubt.

GTA4 wins tons of awards, gets ridiculously good reviews, and has virtually nothing to steal its votes in this upcoming round. Halo 2 beat Okami even while being in the same poll as MGS3.

Okami was the only "anime" game in its division but it couldn't stand on that alone. P4 is the same as far as I see it. The talk around here seems to be that GTA4 is crap, but here is the ONLY place I've heard that. Everywhere else it's great.


OK, but after seeing what Tales of Symponia did in addition to Grand Theft Auto bombing left and right, I'm on the Persona 4 upset train. GTAIII got last place humiliatingly easily, and San Andreas got LAST PLACE in a fourpack in which it was the OVERWHELMING favorite to win. And Vice City barely beat Metroid Prime with Paper Mario in the poll. Suffice it to say, I'm putting absolutely zero faith in Grand Theft Auto 4.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/4/2009 3:49:01 PM | message detail
I don't think P4 really needs a compelling argument. All it would take is GTAIV and SFIV bombing + it being stronger than we anticipated.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/4/2009 3:50:57 PM | message detail
REally, after ToS, nobody should write it off. I'd say the chances of it advancing are low, but it is possible.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/4/2009 3:53:21 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
xp1337 | Posted 5/4/2009 3:53:50 PM | message detail
Well, I like Persona 4, but not as much as most of the board it would seem, so I'll give it a shot.

Brawl pulls around 50, Persona 4 gets around 18, and GTA4 and SF4 split the difference something like 17-15?

...Why does that make this seem even more unlikely?

I think this rests entirely on Brawl. If Brawl can't reach 50, I don't see how Persona 4 has a realistic chance.
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creativename | Posted 5/4/2009 3:55:18 PM | message detail
Oh no, I have no faith in Persona whatsoever. It's just that your argument isn't convincing.

I wasn't trying to present "evidence", I'm just pretty sure the game is going to be damn weak. No matter what people here would have others believe, it's not a well-known game. And nobody who hasn't played it is going to vote for it.

Comparing Persona to much more well-known games like Tales or especially Oblivion doesn't work. Even Okami was somewhat known because critics talked about it. i think Persona hype is one of the sillier bandwagons I've seen.

Brawl will demolish this poll, good chance at holding all three other games under 20% - yet Persona should still finish comfortably last unless one of the other games is also horrifically weak.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/4/2009 3:58:01 PM | message detail
I can't wait to see Creatives reaction when a "Game he's never heard of" is in 2nd at the freeze (Which is very likely, knowing GTA and SFs board votes)
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/4/2009 3:58:58 PM | message detail
creative, didn't you say before the ToS match that it had no realistic chance of advancing? And now you're saying it's a well-known game?

I mean, P4 probably gets last, but that just seems like backpedaling to me.

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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/4/2009 3:59:17 PM | message detail
I can't wait to see Creatives reaction when a "Game he's never heard of" is in 2nd at the freeze (Which is very likely, knowing GTA and SFs board votes)

Or, better yet, if it advances.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/4/2009 3:59:49 PM | message detail
I can't wait to see Creatives reaction when a "Game he's never heard of" is in 2nd at the freeze (Which is very likely, knowing GTA and SFs board votes)

It better or else I'm loling at this topic.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > HL2 Points: 77/108
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/4/2009 4:03:50 PM | message detail
Why is a cult PS2 RPG being argued to win a match anyway. Am I missing something? >_> Might as well take Shadow Hearts to win here
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/4/2009 4:04:50 PM | message detail
Uuuuh if you can't see the difference between P4 and Shadow Hearts...

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/4/2009 4:04:50 PM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #190
Why is a cult PS2 RPG being argued to win a match anyway. Am I missing something? >_> Might as well take Shadow Hearts to win here


Tales of Symphonia ring a bell? It was in a very similuar situation.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/4/2009 4:06:24 PM | message detail
Why is a cult PS2 RPG being argued to win a match anyway. Am I missing something?

Symphonia advancing + GTA putting up embarrassment after embarrassment in the polls + Brawl in the poll to take up a lot of votes

Even with all that, Persona 4's chances are incredibly low, but that's still significantly better than its chances before where were probably somewhere less than "nonexistent".
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/4/2009 4:07:40 PM | message detail
ToS has inflated population by being a Gamecube RPG. And it has characters in the contest manage to win matches. Not impressive matches but... matches. Plus... its a million seller. That's hardly cult

And what IS the difference between Persona and Shadow Hearts? Because honestly I can't tell. Did it manage to get half a million sales or something? I don't know I stopped paying attention to JRPGs by that point
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/4/2009 4:07:41 PM | message detail
Why is a cult PS2 RPG being argued to win a match anyway. Am I missing something?

*coughTalesofSymphoniacough*
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
charmander6000 | Posted 5/4/2009 4:08:29 PM | message detail
I would relate Persona 4 more to Shadow Hearts than ToS, at least they were famous on the same console.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > HL2 Points: 77/108
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/4/2009 4:08:49 PM | message detail
Persona 4 has sold 600k, thats hardly cult either.
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transients | Posted 5/4/2009 4:08:51 PM | message detail
P4's closer to Shadow Hearts than Symphonia. P4's never shown anything at all in a poll. Tales has many times.

and no, getting like 40% against Naruto and whatever else is not impressive.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/4/2009 4:09:44 PM | message detail
ToS has inflated population by being a Gamecube RPG. And it has characters in the contest manage to win matches. Not impressive matches but... matches.

Last I checked, only Lloyd Irving managed to win a match. Besides, wasn't ToS in a similar position as Persona 4 is in now?
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/4/2009 4:09:50 PM | message detail
DBZ = Crono and P4 demolished it.

I think we have a winner.
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