GameFAQs Contests

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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 702

UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/3/2009 9:17:38 PM | message detail
OBJECTION! THAT WAS... OBJECTIONABLE!!



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´
"ToS reminds of my mother. It goes down a lot after 1:00 AM." -GrapefruitKing
plasmabeam | Posted 5/3/2009 9:21:08 PM | message detail
Phoenix: How is Edgeworth doing, anyway?

Gumshoe: Edgeworth is out of control!

Gumshoe: He was in the waiting room and he crushed this paper cup with hot, hot coffee in it.

Phoenix: Whoa...

Gumshoe: Talk about burns, pal!

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~Jacksonville Jaguars~
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/3/2009 9:26:18 PM | message detail
tag

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/4/2009 9:06:48 AM | message detail
Never trust anything FFXII related to win! Including FFXII itself.

What's that? Baltheir took second behind Ada one time? So?

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82/108 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Zelda: Twilight Princess > Half-Life 2 | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
voltch | Posted 5/4/2009 9:14:54 AM | message detail
what's that TP to LFF KH cause of sword SFF and kiddie SFF allowing mature RE4 to cruise next round?

nah that would nevah happen.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/4/2009 9:15:16 AM | message detail
God, this match has too much suspense (particularly between HL2 and FF12).

Oh, another thing that I forgot to mention is that a game coming at the end of a console's shelf life doesn't mean anything for strength. Just look at how popular Super Mario Bros. 3 and Chrono Trigger are on this site.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/4/2009 9:16:55 AM | message detail
Tag
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
Lopen | Posted 5/4/2009 9:18:45 AM | message detail
I'm worried FFXII comes back here. I kinda think 1500 is too many votes for it to overturn but the game has always done well with the day vote.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 5/4/2009 9:46:09 AM | message detail
FFXII is still in striking range, IMO.
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Feel my truth.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 5/4/2009 9:46:14 AM | message detail
FFXII is still in striking range, IMO.
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Feel my truth.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/4/2009 9:52:11 AM | message detail
Well, it seems that Gordon Freeman's worst time is over.
MnMZero | Posted 5/4/2009 9:52:35 AM | message detail
Aww yeah, 702! I used to love that group!

http://ak.buy.com/db_assets/large_images/765/200645765.jpg
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Proud Supporter of Zero
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/4/2009 9:53:19 AM | message detail
Nope, it's over. Half-Life 2's percentage peaked at exactly one hour into the poll, and being part of a popular Xbox game, it doesn't strike me as something that would just continue to decrease (at a rapid enough rate) for the rest of the day. It's almost impossible to imagine FFXII making such a comeback with the ASV. Zelda should mop it up.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/4/2009 9:55:07 AM | message detail
Too bad I won't be awake to watch the ASV (I live in New Delhi now).
charmander6000 | Posted 5/4/2009 9:55:43 AM | message detail
It was over when it broke 1000 votes in less than 2.5 hours.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > HL2 Points: 77/108
voltch | Posted 5/4/2009 9:57:02 AM | message detail
hey yoblazer,how long you got left with that awesome sig?
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/4/2009 9:57:30 AM | message detail
Like three more days.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
voltch | Posted 5/4/2009 10:00:57 AM | message detail
hehe,at any rate,looks like the boring part of the contest is nearly over,round 2 looks far more interesting without the 10% army.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
red sox 777 | Posted 5/4/2009 10:02:19 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 5/4/2009 10:02:23 AM | message detail
Round 2 should be much better for my bracket than 1 was. Despite getting murdered by terrible picks in the first round, most of my round 2 picks are looking good.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/4/2009 10:03:11 AM | message detail
This is probably over, but Gordon has always sucked at the ASV. And.....FFXII closed the percentage gap overnight enough that Crono/Vincent trends still have the appearance of being relevant! For the first time ever, I bring you Crono/Vincent comparisons after the Europe vote!

Half-Life 2's current percentage on Final Fantasy XII: 52.25%
Crono's percentage on Vincent at this time: 49.91%
Crono's final percentage: 48.58%

Projection: Half-Life 2 wins with 50.92%

Well, okay, so HL2 still wins in the projection, HL2's ASV should be better than 2k7 Crono (maybe not 2k8 or 2k9 Crono), and FFXII's day vote should be worse than 2k7 Vincent's (again, maybe not now, FFVII's ASV seems to have taken a dive the 2 years as its become even more dominant in the dead zone). So this shouldn't even be close, but stranger things have happened I guess.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/4/2009 10:04:48 AM | message detail
Thank god, I had been going through Crono/Vincent comparisons withdrawal.
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Kleenex...at work!
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/4/2009 10:06:05 AM | message detail
hehe,at any rate,looks like the boring part of the contest is nearly over,round 2 looks far more interesting without the 10% army.

Don't you mean 10%-and-less army?
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/4/2009 10:06:38 AM | message detail
So Gordon has sucked at the ASV. I know he sucked in the morning, but after that...

And I thought being the star of an Xbox FPS would mean a GOOD ASV, at worst.
voltch | Posted 5/4/2009 10:06:48 AM | message detail
there is no europe vote today,what with holidays and all,tomorrow it ought to be back on track,though UK will suffer because of EPIC CHAMPIONS LEAGUE SEMI FINAL!
spanish vote might fade away too once messi/henry and eto play against your ballacks and your lampards,the UK vote i expect it to drop cause you don't mess with the big game.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/4/2009 10:07:10 AM | message detail
voltch'd
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Kleenex...at work!
red sox 777 | Posted 5/4/2009 10:10:00 AM | message detail
Europe being important during that 4-6 AM period isn't about European trends- it's about American trends, namely that very few people in America are awake at that time, so the percentage of incoming votes coming from Europe rises dramatically.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
voltch | Posted 5/4/2009 10:12:06 AM | message detail
why thanks kleenex,I'll be sure to use your brand of tissues during this horrible hayfever season.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/4/2009 10:14:47 AM | message detail
Oddly enough, for a previous match, I picked Half-Life to beat Final Fantasy IX because I had never seen a Best Game Ever list with Half-Life below Final Fantasy IX. I've seen lists with Final Fantasy VIII above Half-Life, but not Final Fantasy IX!

Then again, I don't think I've seen a list that has Metroid Prime below Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (see plenty with it below GTAIII and San Andreas though).

Oh, and how did Civilization II and Grim Fandango not make this contest? It would've been cool to see Civilization II square off against, say, Symphony of the Night, or maybe Resident Evil 2.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/4/2009 10:17:27 AM | message detail
Anyway, TP and FFXII are doing about what I expected (and yes, Zelda 1 > TP!), but I was completely wrong about Half-Life 2 and Phoenix Wright. The explanation for TP doing so well in that GOTY poll is simple- it was the most hyped game we had EVER seen since the contests began up to that point, and the Wii hype and excitement were also huge that Christmas. Square, fresh off of KH2, had looked good that entire contest as the Square near-elites established their dominance over the Nintendo near-elites, and then Link still gave Cloud the worst (non-bandwagon/joke induced) beating of his contest career.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
voltch | Posted 5/4/2009 10:18:18 AM | message detail
no,poor civ,that series contest performance was painful and Manny suffered enough against a weaker snake.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
red sox 777 | Posted 5/4/2009 10:20:13 AM | message detail
Civilization's 10% was pretty impressive, considering how incredibly strong Zelda was. We're talking about a series that didn't go below 70% until the final, which would probably break 70% on all but 2 other series (Final Fantasy and Mario).
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/4/2009 10:23:27 AM | message detail
Late 2006-early 2007 was probably the strongest Nintendo had ever been on this site. Everyone was smitten by the Wii, and people hated Sony's guts.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/4/2009 10:28:21 AM | message detail
Nonetheless that was the year Vincent/Squall/Auron/Tifa established themselves above Ganondorf/Zelda/Bowser. Now, perhaps Ganondorf and Bowser were just chronically overrated in 2005, but 54% on Auron and 49% on Snake are pretty good, without even considering their Sephiroth numbers.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
voltch | Posted 5/4/2009 10:28:41 AM | message detail
PS3 outselling the wii two months in a row,looks like it's the US's turn to embrace it,unless those rumours that US gamers subconsciously buy 360s cause it's an american product are true....wait all my gaming products are japanese...i'm half japanese..oh dear no believe me i ain't against the US i love coca cola!
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/4/2009 10:37:22 AM | message detail
Then again, Tifa's most likely overrated after that performance on Samus...
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
red sox 777 | Posted 5/4/2009 10:39:27 AM | message detail
Eh, the point was that TP was really really hyped that year and it shouldn't be surprising that it's fallen down to earth now. Remember the TP > FFVII discussion? It actually wasn't completely impossible either, if TP had somehow lived up to its expecations and exceeded OOT's quality.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/4/2009 10:52:04 AM | message detail
Had Brawl lived up to expectations it would have smashed TP if it lived up to its expectations.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > HL2 Points: 77/108
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/4/2009 10:59:53 AM | message detail
TP is doing quite alright today. When it gets first place next round you'll all agree
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Today's prediction: Twilight 38.27% - Sky Pirate 23.89% - Half-Life 2 19.92% - Phoenix 17.92%
Status: crappy
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/4/2009 11:03:50 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/4/2009 11:04:11 AM | message detail
Its doing horrible. In 2006 It put up about 70% on FFXII. Now its like low 60s, and FFXII shouldn't have gotten stronger since then!
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 5/4/2009 11:07:46 AM | message detail
Its doing horrible. In 2006 It put up about 70% on FFXII. Now its like low 60s, and FFXII shouldn't have gotten stronger since then!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=776
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > HL2 Points: 77/108
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/4/2009 11:08:12 AM | message detail
what is that from? a silly Best Game of 2006 poll again?
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Today's prediction: Twilight 38.27% - Sky Pirate 23.89% - Half-Life 2 19.92% - Phoenix 17.92%
Status: crappy
hochiminhX | Posted 5/4/2009 11:09:00 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=776


3 way poll =/= 15 way poll. Are you insinuating SSBB vs MGS4 is inaccurate?

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I will bury you.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/4/2009 11:10:36 AM | message detail
3 way poll =/= 15 way poll. Are you insinuating SSBB vs MGS4 is inaccurate?

Brawl was close to MGS4 while FFX destroyed Melee, had only those two games been polled FFX would've easily won.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > HL2 Points: 77/108
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/4/2009 11:12:11 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #042
Its doing horrible. In 2006 It put up about 70% on FFXII. Now its like low 60s, and FFXII shouldn't have gotten stronger since then!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=776


That is 30k votes.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
hochiminhX | Posted 5/4/2009 11:13:40 AM | message detail
Brawl was close to MGS4 while FFX destroyed Melee, had only those two games been polled FFX would've easily won.


Yes, that poll way way outdated with a third of the votes. TP vs FFXII vs GoW had the right amount of votes. TP declined, there's no way around it. Unless you're arguing for FFXII SPF that is.

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I will bury you.
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 5/4/2009 11:15:09 AM | message detail
tag
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
charmander6000 | Posted 5/4/2009 11:15:11 AM | message detail
That is 30k votes.

Vote totals were low at that time and the time between the 2001 GotY and 2004 contest is the same as the 2006 GotY and 2009 contest. People change, demographics change and 2006 was near the Nintendo high while RPGs now seem to be gaining steam.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > HL2 Points: 77/108
charmander6000 | Posted 5/4/2009 11:16:40 AM | message detail
Yes, that poll way way outdated with a third of the votes. TP vs FFXII vs GoW had the right amount of votes. TP declined, there's no way around it. Unless you're arguing for FFXII SPF that is.

I'm arguing that TP dropped while FFXII went up since 2k6 because different people now go to the site.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > HL2 Points: 77/108