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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 701

ZFS | Posted 5/3/2009 9:42:13 PM | message detail
awww yeah

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/3/2009 9:42:25 PM | message detail
Stand out factor isn't something that's going to turn a 60-40 loss into a victory.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 9:42:31 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #399
Half-Life 2's current percentage on Final Fantasy XII: 55.65%
Crono's percentage on Vincent at this time, 2007: 56.86%
Crono's final percentage: 48.58%

Projection based on Crono/Vincent: Final Fantasy XII wins with 52.63%


lol
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/3/2009 9:42:45 PM | message detail
Tales of Symphonia voters seemed to.

You can stop talking ignorantly any time now.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 9:43:17 PM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #402
Stand out factor isn't something that's going to turn a 60-40 loss into a victory.


Its not. But its only one of the factors. Plus look at the votals for the WoW match. Its one of the lowest we've had since the early generational days. Theres alot of room for rallying votes if needed.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/3/2009 9:43:44 PM | message detail
Hmm? HL2 only gained 42 on FFXII- TP was the one that gained almost 100 votes.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/3/2009 9:43:57 PM | message detail
Only Albion can try and turn low votals into something positive.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/3/2009 9:44:26 PM | message detail
Oh right, looking at the wrong lead. But still, that was a sad update for PW.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 9:45:19 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #407
Only Albion can try and turn low votals into something positive.


My point is that WoW easily beat Halo 2 on its own strength, with very little rallying. If there is a closer match, it has quite a bit of strength to gain from rallying if needed.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/3/2009 9:45:42 PM | message detail
...Yeah, at this rate, PW's going to finish with like 11-12%.
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ZFS | Posted 5/3/2009 9:46:38 PM | message detail
What game is WoW supposedly going to have a close match with. It only gets tougher from round 1.

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MetricTrout | Posted 5/3/2009 9:47:28 PM | message detail
7 > X > 6 > 8 >= 9 > Tactics > 1 >= 4 > 12

Not going to pass judgment on FF8 until it faces real competition. And Starcraft does not count.

But did you see what Starcraft did in the 2004 contest? Yeah, and evidently no one cares enough about it to rally for it anymore.

Honestly, right now, I would take anything with name value (Majora's Mask, FF9) to put up a similar performance against FF8's fourpack. Not saying it is weak; just that its strength could range from any number of values. I would like to see how it splits against FF9 next round first. As it stands right now, FF8's first round performance proves nothing.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/3/2009 9:47:45 PM | message detail
Man, I still can't understand how Crono lost that match. He had over 57.4% 30 minutes in. How in the world do you lose when you have 57.4% after 30 minutes?!?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 9:48:19 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #413
Man, I still can't understand how Crono lost that match. He had over 57.4% 30 minutes in. How in the world do you lose when you have 57.4% after 30 minutes?!?


Combined with the fact Cronos best time is the power hour, and thats FFs worst time and it just raises to heaven from there..
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transience | Posted 5/3/2009 9:49:03 PM | message detail
'kay, top 20 time

FF6
FF8
FF10
KH1
KH2
Mario 64
MGS1
Pokemon RBY
Resident Evil 4
Zelda: Twilight Princess
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Chaotic Mind | Posted 5/3/2009 9:49:15 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #382
And yeah, why not take Gordon's chances next round a bit more seriously? Zelda, RE4, and KHII have triple overlap in either general appeal or console exposure. Half-Life 2 is obviously bringing in a pretty decent fanbase and the only Xbox option (although a lot of good that did for Gears, I'll admit). Still, I wouldn't be shocked if second through fourth place was only separated by a few percent.


This, only make it first through fourth. This showing from Zelda does not convince me it takes first with ease. The only game i don't see having a shot at first is HL2 (and even that might have a long shot).
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transience | Posted 5/3/2009 9:50:21 PM | message detail
TP should have first. I take this pack over last pack and it's going to end with a higher percentage.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 5/3/2009 9:50:45 PM | message detail
Half-Life 2 is obviously bringing in a pretty decent fanbase and the only Xbox option

Eh, I wouldn't really count Half-Life 2 as an Xbox game. Most of the support it gets definitely comes from the PC pool. But the exposure it's gotten on the Xbox (and by Orange Box extension, the PS3) has certainly helped tremendously. Not to mention the PC version of the game came out in 2004 whereas the Xbox port wasn't released until 2005

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82/108 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Zelda: Twilight Princess > Half-Life 2 | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/3/2009 9:50:49 PM | message detail
Frog had like 62% against Master Chief after 30 minutes and almost lost that one >_>
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/3/2009 9:51:06 PM | message detail
Uhhh...

FFX
FFVIII
FFVI
Mario 64
Twilight Princess
RBY
MGS1
RE4 = KH1 = KHII

Seriously, no clue.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 5/3/2009 9:51:56 PM | message detail
The attorney's gonna run out of percentage at this rate.

Given that the first hour should be the games best time, this is probably going to get a lot uglier before it gets better.
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ZFS | Posted 5/3/2009 9:52:28 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy X
Final Fantasy VIII
Pokemon RBY
Final Fantasy VI
Super Mario 64
Twilight Princess
Metal Gear Solid
Resident Evil 4
Kingdom Hearts 2
Kingdom Hearts

or something

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transience | Posted 5/3/2009 9:55:11 PM | message detail
and is anyone taking any of those over Melee or Mario 3?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/3/2009 9:55:39 PM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Gears | KHII | R. Evil 4 | SotC | Demographic
EBV | 14.22% | 32.67% | 35.54% | 17.57% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 12.61% | 32.59% | 35.13% | 19.68% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 12.97% | 31.97% | 35.04% | 20.01% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 13.45% | 33.35% | 33.82% | 19.38% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 14.73% | 34.56% | 33.66% | 17.05% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 14.21% | 34.04% | 33.83% | 17.91% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 13.47% | 34.20% | 34.61% | 17.72% | (22:00-24:00)

RE4 is definitely a board vote, Power Hour, and night vote game. The difference between night and day isn't as bad as with the rest of the series though. KHII makes a 2.5% jump from the first night vote to the day vote, even beating RE4 outright during that time. SotC is a night vote game, but it still does well with the early morning vote. Why in the world does Gears of War have a board vote? Brackets? Bad, bad night vote, as it customary for XBox games.

Yesterday's stats:

Resident Evil 4 – 50.00%
Kingdom Hearts II – 49.59%
Shadow of the Colossus – 34.93%
Gears of War – 28.88%

So do you guys think 65% on FFXII or 65% on SotC is better?

(Hint: It's not the game with 16 boss fights and nothing else)
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ZFS | Posted 5/3/2009 9:56:33 PM | message detail
Give me FFX over Melee, but not Mario 3.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/3/2009 9:56:38 PM | message detail
and is anyone taking any of those over Melee or Mario 3?

Not yet with Melee. I don't think Mario 3's that vulnerable. You have to start talking about beating Chrono Trigger if you start talking about beating Mario 3.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/3/2009 9:56:45 PM | message detail
Nah, the closest I'd venture to madness is going with TP over Mario 3 and hoping for the Nintendo fanbase to slurp Zelda, but I'd have to be less than lucid.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 5/3/2009 9:57:05 PM | message detail
So do you guys think 65% on FFXII or 65% on SotC is better?

lol

Good point.
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Chaotic Mind | Posted 5/3/2009 9:59:13 PM | message detail

From: transience | #417
I take this pack over last pack and it's going to end with a higher percentage.


What are you smoking tranny? KH2>>>HL2, not to mention SotC>PW. The only game from this pack that's stronger than a game from last pack is FF12>GOW.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/3/2009 9:59:57 PM | message detail
Uh...

Final Fantasy VIII
Final Fantasy X
Red/Blue/Yellow
Super Mario 64
Twilight Princess
Metal Gear Solid
Kingdom Hearts
Resident Evil 4
Kingdom Hearts II

Top three are pretty close - I'm still struck by RBY beating MM nearly as bad as Melee beat Wind Waker, and I like FFVIII's performance on StarCraft a bit more than FFX's on MGS2.

Twilight Princess can go up a spot if it pushes FFXII closer to what Symphony got on Mario 64, or down a spot if FFXII rises to what Tactics got on Metal Gear Solid.

I'd give KH the spot over its sequel and RE4 based on KH doing just a tad worse on Prime than RE4/KHII did on SotC. I'm pretty down on Prime, but not that down.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/3/2009 9:59:57 PM | message detail
Time for your daily dose of Zelda 1 hype!

Pokemon RBY
Final Fantasy X
Final Fantasy VI
The Legend of Zelda
Metal Gear Solid
Final Fantasy VIII
Super Mario 64
Zelda: Twilight Princess
Resident Evil 4
Kingdom Hearts 2
Kingdom Hearts

The Zelda 1/MGS/FFVIII/SM64 group is roughly equal, and the RE4/KH/KH2 group is basically equal. I would not take any of these over Mario 3 or Melee.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/3/2009 10:00:09 PM | message detail
Well, let's rank these games:

Link's Awakening
Symphony of the Night
Majora's Mask
Final Fantasy Tactics
StarCraft
Metal Gear Solid 2
Vice City
Metroid Prime
Wind Waker
Shadow of the Colossus
Final Fantasy XII

How you rank these games basically determines how you rank the rest, give or take.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/3/2009 10:02:23 PM | message detail
Oh, I forgot FFVI.


Final Fantasy VIII
Final Fantasy X
Red/Blue/Yellow
Super Mario 64
Twilight Princess
Final Fantasy VI
Metal Gear Solid
Kingdom Hearts
Resident Evil 4
Kingdom Hearts II

That first round performance was awful. I guess I'd swing MMX > FFT for now, but FFVI could well go down another slot.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/3/2009 10:03:27 PM | message detail
Oh yeah, I knew my gut instinct would pull through!

Go Gordon Go!
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ZFS | Posted 5/3/2009 10:04:57 PM | message detail
Link's Awakening
The Wind Waker
Metal Gear Solid 2
StarCraft
Majora's Mask
Final Fantasy XII
Final Fantasy Tactics
Metroid Prime
Vice City
Symphony of the Night
Shadow of the Colossus

I guess...who knows.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/3/2009 10:06:43 PM | message detail
FFXII stall right after the Power Hour.

HL2 a Power Hour game?
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Chaotic Mind | Posted 5/3/2009 10:06:57 PM | message detail
First update after the power hour ends and FF12 manages a 5 vote stall. Maybe this isn't over after all.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 10:09:04 PM | message detail

From: Chaotic Mind | #437
First update after the power hour ends and FF12 manages a 5 vote stall. Maybe this isn't over after all.


Its over.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/3/2009 10:09:43 PM | message detail
Okay, here are which games are advancing out of the divisions (except for the last two), in three ways; by what I put in my bracket, by what *my* favorites are, and what the vote totals tell us.

1972-1988
Bracket: The Legend of Zelda > Super Mario Bros.
Favorites: Super Mario Bros. > The Legend of Zelda
Votals: Super Mario Bros. > The Legend of Zelda
1989-1991
Bracket: Super Mario Bros. 3 > Street Fighter II
Favorites: Super Mario Bros 3 > Super Mario World
Votals: Super Mario Bros. 3 > Super Mario World
1992-1994
Bracket: Final Fantasy VI > Zelda: A Link to the Past
Favorites: Zelda: A Link to the Past > Super Metroid
Votals: Zelda: A Link to the Past > Final Fantasy VI
1995-1997
Bracket: Final Fantasy VII > Chrono Trigger
Favorites: Chrono Trigger > Super Mario 64
Votals: Final Fantasy VII > Chrono Trigger
1998-2000
Bracket: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Metal Gear Solid
Favorites: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Metal Gear Solid
Votals: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Pokemon Red/Blue
2001-2003
Bracket: Halo > Super Smash Bros. Melee
Favorites: Metroid Prime > Halo
Votals: Super Smash Bros. Melee > Final Fantasy X
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/3/2009 10:11:11 PM | message detail
Looks like a false alarm.

Carry on.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 5/3/2009 10:12:10 PM | message detail
And Gordon whacks Final Fantasy XII over the head with his crowbar for having the balls to stall him 5 minutes ago.
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82/108 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Zelda: Twilight Princess > Half-Life 2 | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
transience | Posted 5/3/2009 10:14:30 PM | message detail
The Wind Waker
Metal Gear Solid 2
Link's Awakening
StarCraft
Majora's Mask
Final Fantasy Tactics
Vice City
Metroid Prime
Final Fantasy XII
Symphony of the Night
Shadow of the Colossus

so.. Melee > FFX > FF6 > FF8 > RBY > MGS > KH1 > TP > Mario 64 > RE4? bleh.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/3/2009 10:14:47 PM | message detail
That's enough encouragement for another comparison!

Half-Life 2's current percentage on Final Fantasy XII: 55.62%
Crono's percentage on Vincent at this time, 2007: 56.44%
Crono's final percentage: 48.58%

Projection based on Crono/Vincent: Final Fantasy XII wins with 52.24%

FFXII has a large enough cushion in the projection that it doesn't need this match to follow Crono/Vincent 2007. If it follows the much tamer Crono/Vincent 2008, FFXII will be right in it.
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Meeks54 | Posted 5/3/2009 10:20:33 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #443
That's enough encouragement for another comparison!

Half-Life 2's current percentage on Final Fantasy XII: 55.62%
Crono's percentage on Vincent at this time, 2007: 56.44%
Crono's final percentage: 48.58%

Projection based on Crono/Vincent: Final Fantasy XII wins with 52.24%

FFXII has a large enough cushion in the projection that it doesn't need this match to follow Crono/Vincent 2007. If it follows the much tamer Crono/Vincent 2008, FFXII will be right in it.




No one on here likes XII though that much. This board loves Crono. Where does XII get the rallies to do anything here?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/3/2009 10:20:57 PM | message detail
Strange that PW starts to stabilize now that the Power Hour is over and TP is trying to take off again.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 10:21:06 PM | message detail

From: Meeks54 | #444
No one on here likes XII though that much. This board loves Crono. Where does XII get the rallies to do anything here?


He's being sarcastic.
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/3/2009 10:24:11 PM | message detail
Twilight Princess looking to maybe break 40% with the ASV.

Not particularly impressive for the third strongest Zelda, but passable, I guess.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/3/2009 10:24:55 PM | message detail
This board loves Crono?
red sox 777 | Posted 5/3/2009 10:25:05 PM | message detail
Nah, TP probably ends pretty close to where it is now. It's going to fall overnight before going up with the day.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 10:26:12 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #449
Nah, TP probably ends pretty close to where it is now. It's going to fall overnight before going up with the day.


PW does have percentage to bleed though, so I can see each game finishing about 1% higher.
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