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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 701

RockMFR 5 | Posted 5/3/2009 2:28:17 PM | message detail
That was a massive cut.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 2:28:46 PM | message detail
Woah 50 vote cut. Maybe KH wants to make a comeback afterall
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/3/2009 2:29:31 PM | message detail
Yeah, Nintendo peaks in the morning on weekends and fades throughout the rest of the day.

And whoa 51 vote cut from KH2 to remind us that it's still in this.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/3/2009 2:30:34 PM | message detail
This match is making me really not like RE4 out of the division. I'm not even feeling good about it advancing next round.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 2:31:44 PM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #054
This match is making me really not like RE4 out of the division. I'm not even feeling good about it advancing next round.


TP > WoW with RE4/MGS3 splitting the mature action game votes

lets do this
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/3/2009 2:33:10 PM | message detail
Get that out of here.

TP > ToS let's do this.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/3/2009 2:35:03 PM | message detail
Thanks for the by-the-hour charts, charmander. Those are some of the most even trends I've ever seen- no one's broken 53% in an hour yet.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 2:35:14 PM | message detail
Seriously though, if TP tomorrow blows out the competition with like almost 50% (which I think is its ceiling), and WoW makes it through next round...

TP will take such a large chunk of round 3, and with MGS3/RE4 sffing a bit, that WoW has a realistic shot of making it through.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/3/2009 2:37:20 PM | message detail
RBY screwed next round.

http://kotaku.com/5238119/pokemon-remakes-take-gold-silver

50/50 split confirmed.
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Aww yeah.
ZFS | Posted 5/3/2009 2:37:31 PM | message detail
TP ain't gettin' close to 50% tomorrow.

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/3/2009 2:37:53 PM | message detail
TP is going to crash and burn just like the rest of these modern games, including FFXII and Half-Life 2. Meaning......Phoenix Wright will do very well tomorrow!
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/3/2009 2:39:03 PM | message detail
eurocake factor hell yeah


If we're taking RE1/2 over SotC though, then SM64's breaking 55+% on RE4 and KH2...which I'm certainly cool with, though I didn't expect that pre-contest (for RE4, at least). GE also gets 45+% on RE4 like this.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 2:39:57 PM | message detail
TP: 46%
FF12: 20%
HL2: 18%
PW: 16%
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ZFS | Posted 5/3/2009 2:40:37 PM | message detail
Take off about 8% from TP and we're good.

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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/3/2009 2:40:39 PM | message detail
If FF12 only gets 20%, then RE4 isn't going to have anywhere near enough strength to hurt MGS3.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 2:41:25 PM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #065
If FF12 only gets 20%, then RE4 isn't going to have anywhere near enough strength to hurt MGS3.


How does FF12 have anything to do with RE4 strength?
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/3/2009 2:42:07 PM | message detail
FF12 beat KH2 fairly easily.

KH2 is about equal to RE4.

Therefore, if FF12 is ass, then RE4 is ass.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 2:43:23 PM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #067
FF12 beat KH2 fairly easily.

KH2 is about equal to RE4.

Therefore, if FF12 is ass, then RE4 is ass.


Gears of War also beats KH2 if you go by those polls.
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ZFS | Posted 5/3/2009 2:43:38 PM | message detail
game of the year polls -- one day we will stop referring back to these

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/3/2009 2:43:51 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/3/2009 2:43:57 PM | message detail
I just re-checked those polls, and apparently FFXII did a lot worse than I thought it did.

....this makes RE4 look completely terrible.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/3/2009 2:44:20 PM | message detail
FF12 beat KH2 in a GotY poll, and it wasn't really all THAT easily.

I mean honestly are we still using GotY polls? I think we've seen they're practically uselessness enough by now
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/3/2009 2:44:28 PM | message detail
Gears of War also outdid KHII in those very same polls

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 2:45:26 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2622
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2630

Really, todays match made everything from those 2006 Goty polls irrelevant.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/3/2009 2:46:53 PM | message detail
Gears is an FPS that's no longer the king FPS. FPSes other than the king being completely terrible is a trend. Marcus went from beating Kefka to losing to Rydia despite Auron being in the poll.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 2:47:46 PM | message detail
Gears is an FPS that's no longer the king FPS

Stopped reading there. Stop calling a TPS game a FPS! Gears is as much of a FPS as RE4 is.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/3/2009 2:50:16 PM | message detail
If you want to go that route, TPSes have been ass too!
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/3/2009 2:52:38 PM | message detail
This brings up an interesting question: with how some of our older GotY-polls failing, do you think our more recent ones (2007's and mainly 2008's) will be more accurate or be just as possibly flawed?
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 2:53:42 PM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #077
If you want to go that route, TPSes have been ass too!


oh yeah mgs has been crap
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voltch | Posted 5/3/2009 2:53:57 PM | message detail
maybe Goty polls give different results...because there are no match pics maybe?
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/3/2009 2:54:44 PM | message detail
I see the more recent ones continuing the trend for FPSes doing bad, but I think it'll overall benefit more well-known games. I wouldn't be surprised if the most recent division is Galaxy/Brawl/MGS4 >>>> all, including Fallout 3 getting left in the dust.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/3/2009 2:54:55 PM | message detail
Well 2007 was just Galaxy with 2 FPSes, which we know how that's turned out so far. Don't exactly have high hopes for that one

2008 I imagine shouldn't have any reason to be different
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 2:55:25 PM | message detail
MGS4: http://ps3media.ign.com/ps3/image/article/821/821361/metal-gear-solid-4-guns-of-the-patriots--20070920004501473.jpg
GoW: http://xbox360media.ign.com/xbox360/image/article/779/779237/gears-of-war-20070409045844667_640w.jpg

They almost look like brothers!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 2:55:51 PM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #081
I see the more recent ones continuing the trend for FPSes doing bad, but I think it'll overall benefit more well-known games. I wouldn't be surprised if the most recent division is Galaxy/Brawl/MGS4 >>>> all, including Fallout 3 getting left in the dust.


You're obsessed with any game on Xbox being a FPS, aren't you?
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/3/2009 2:56:56 PM | message detail
No, I'm saying that Fallout 3 is a much, much weaker series than Metal Gear Solid, Smash Brothers, and Mario.

Unless you want to argue something like Call of Duty 4 not being an FPS.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 2:57:42 PM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #085
No, I'm saying that Fallout 3 is a much, much weaker series than Metal Gear Solid, Smash Brothers, and Mario.

Unless you want to argue something like Call of Duty 4 not being an FPS.


All we've seen with Wrpgs being stronger then expected, theres no reason to expect Fallout 3 to not live up to expectations. Its basically a much stronger version of Oblivion.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/3/2009 2:58:10 PM | message detail
There's no reason at all to believe the most recent game in a series/genre is the strongest. Let's look at some series and ask ourselves if that is true:

Zelda: No
Final Fantasy: No
Mario: No
Metal Gear: No
Smash: No
Chrono: No
Megaman: No
Sonic: No
Castlevania: No
Kingdom Hearts: Maybe
Resident Evil: No
GTA: Probably not
Halo: No
Street Fighter: No

Let's look at our strongest games:

Final Fantasy VII (1997)
Ocarina of Time (1998)
Chrono Trigger (1995)
A Link to the Past (1992)
Super Mario Bros. 3 (1990)
Super Smash Bros. Melee (2001)
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow (1996)
Final Fantasy X (2001)
Final Fantasy VI (1994)
Final Fantasy VIII (1999)

Gears of War was hyped and important when it came out; now it's not and it's fallen off accordingly. This isn't because a new and better game came out to replace it.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/3/2009 2:59:20 PM | message detail
Oh, I'm not saying Fallout 3 will bomb. I still think it'll easily reach Round 3. But I expect the gap between it and MGS4/Brawl to be a lot larger than it was in the GotY polls.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 3:00:09 PM | message detail
Fallout 3 easily makes it to the quarters if we have a SSBB/Galaxy/MGS4/Fallout 3 match. If not, yeah, round 3 is its limit.
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voltch | Posted 5/3/2009 3:00:33 PM | message detail
you sure,i can see brawl/mgs4 to be not nearly as close though.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/3/2009 3:00:40 PM | message detail
Uh, remember how Halo2 cut a grand total a few hundred votes from WoW's lead?

Halo 2 was getting in occasional cuts, but the ASV pretty much was even between WoW and Halo 2. But it didn't cut off more than 200 votes from WoW's lead at all, because it was practically deadlocked for the entire ASV.

so much for KH2's vaunted day vote. looks like it only applies to its characters.

At the rate KH2 is cutting, it won't be able to take the lead before this match ends.
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creativename | Posted 5/3/2009 3:01:16 PM | message detail
Woah man - thank goodness the undercard fight just before Pacquiao-Hatton was epically boring - I was able to change my initial Oracle pick which had Shadows at only 7.5%. Didn't get home from watching the PPV until almost 2am so would've probably totally forgotten otherwise, and that would've been killer. Only increased it to 12.5% but that's still a ton better. I thought Shadow would be way stronger than Wander wouldn't have thought it could go higher than 15%.

I hope now people are done with this silly talk of Oblivion's pack being weak. There's really only so weak I can see Oblivion being.

After seeing Shadow/Morrowind/Oblivion/KOTOR, it's clear that critically acclaimed and renowned games with fan respect are doing well. I expect advancement in that pack to come down to Oblivion and Tales next round, I don't know if Warcraft will even bother to be a factor.

Also I really see Fallout 3 being a force here. That's an incredibly well respect game, and it's cross-platform (XBox+PC seems to be a solid combo so far, and this has solid sales on the PS3 to boot). It's only potential weakness is if some people hold it having FPS elements against it, but I doubt that will really be a negative.

I'm thinking that Fallout will just dominate it's 1st round pack - and I think that the MGS4/RE4/LoZ:TP pack that we were all so confused over pre-contest might well be won by Fallout 3. The Resident Evil series hasn't impressive so far, and really MGS hasn't been as impressive as I was expecting either. I think MGS4 will be strong, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Fallout 3 be right there with it, and possibly win. The MGS games probably aren't too far apart from each other in strength.
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creativename | Posted 5/3/2009 3:04:29 PM | message detail
And a Fallout 3 discussion breaks out just before I post on it, nice.

The notion of Fallout 3 not living up to pre-contest expectations goes against just about everything we've seen in this contest so far. Fallout 3 could end up being one of the biggest stars of the contest.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 5/3/2009 3:05:35 PM | message detail
I wouldn't go that far, it'll beat Halo 3 but I have a feeling L4D and Mass Effect will put heat on it.

I would not be shocked if that was another 25/25/25/25 poll.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/3/2009 3:06:04 PM | message detail
Yeah, if anything, I'd expect Fallout 3 and MGS4 to do even better than they did in the GotY polls. Wouldn't really be surprised to see MGS4 > Brawl now.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 3:07:21 PM | message detail

From: SonicRaptor | #094
I wouldn't go that far, it'll beat Halo 3 but I have a feeling L4D and Mass Effect will put heat on it.

I would not be shocked if that was another 25/25/25/25 poll.


You'd expect Fallout 3 to be anywhere near Halo 3s level after seeing how well Xbox/PC Wrpgs have done compared to Halos flops?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/3/2009 3:09:06 PM | message detail
Considering that Fallout 3 is Oblivion++, it should do very well.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 3:10:13 PM | message detail
Not to mention it makes no sense to think that L4D would hurt Fallout 3. L4D would hurt Halo 3, both being popular XBL FPS, not Fallout 3. Mass Effect can hurt it though, but its a non factor since both games are gonna be sff'd by lesser titles.
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Yesmar | Posted 5/3/2009 3:10:14 PM | message detail
If any GOTY game flops I would bet on Fallout 3, since it might have been benefiting due to being more recent back in January. Not that that's liable to make much of a difference in the situations it advances in though.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/3/2009 3:10:51 PM | message detail
And people thinking Fallout 3 will follow the same path other FPS games are following.

It isn't an FPS.

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