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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 700 (God's 100 topics incoming!)

paulg235 | Posted 5/3/2009 5:53:13 AM | message detail
Is it possible that Kingdom Hearts 2 is stronger than Final Fantasy XII or even Twilight Princess?

Who knows?


No one since KH2 and FF12 will LFF/SFF each other.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
Meeks54 | Posted 5/3/2009 5:53:27 AM | message detail

From: LinkMarioSamus | #400
Is it possible that Kingdom Hearts 2 is stronger than Final Fantasy XII or even Twilight Princess?

Who knows?




Well, KH would probably take out XII, and I have KH II>KH. As for TP....that is a tough one. TP is probably the third strongest Zelda game in the bracket, I am not prepared to say KH II can take TP just because it can take the second weakest FF game in the bracket.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/3/2009 6:04:51 AM | message detail
I don't see KH hanging where I thought RE4 might in the top 15 or so, so I'm really glad I have it losing out to MGS4 when it shows up. Provided of course that it makes it through. It should be fine through the Square split, I think it should manage MGS3 as well. But if it loses it's Nintendo support, it could lose there.

Which sets up MGS3/MGS4/SSBB/TP

And anything could happen there.
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Whoo chain reactions!
voltch | Posted 5/3/2009 6:07:22 AM | message detail
stronger than XII maybe but no way is it EVER beating a top tier Zelda game,i can only see OOT and LTTP being stronger than TP.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
Ultimaphazon | Posted 5/3/2009 6:10:29 AM | message detail
No way do I buy FFXII being stronger than KHII. I still haven't given up on the HL2 upset yet.
I hope FFXII completely bombs, because it's a terrible, terrible game.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
voltch | Posted 5/3/2009 6:13:07 AM | message detail
XII is obiously stronger,if FF is in the title is always wins.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
paulg235 | Posted 5/3/2009 6:15:49 AM | message detail
if FF is in the title is always wins

Then explain Tactics not advancing then.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
voltch | Posted 5/3/2009 6:17:12 AM | message detail
my sig explains all!
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
charmander6000 | Posted 5/3/2009 6:24:24 AM | message detail
Wait, so Tales of Symphonia and Okami are allowed to do well, but when Shadow of the Colossus does something last place factor = confirmed?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > KHII Points: 73/104
Meeks54 | Posted 5/3/2009 6:30:05 AM | message detail
So, now that RE 4 is clearly out of the running for it. What are the top 10 games?


Is FF VI still in it, or do we drop it out?
How high do RBY and FF VIII go?
X or Melee
Does SM 64 or MGS even make it?
Do TP, Brawl or Galaxy have a chance?


Anyway, as of right now, in no concrete order, I have these 10 games.


Chrono Trigger
Super Mario 64
Melee
Final Fantasy X
Pokemon RBY
Final Fantasy VI
Ocarina of Time
Final Fantasy VIII
A Link to the Past
Final Fantasy VII


VI or SM 64 are the ones most likely gone if Brawl or Twilight Princess really show up.

If they don't show up and VI dies again in round 2, MGS would be next, unless Galaxy somehow goes crazy, but I just don't see that happening.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
Meeks54 | Posted 5/3/2009 6:33:53 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #409
Wait, so Tales of Symphonia and Okami are allowed to do well, but when Shadow of the Colossus does something last place factor = confirmed?




Difference here is of course even if they were Niche, those at least were somewhat popular. Reviewers loved SotC, but really no one else played it. Would you expect Ico to do this as well? Of course not, it should not really have to be confirmed, as it was the 800 pound gorilla in the room the last few contests, but this match does confirm it. There is no way SotC would touch a barely sffed Gears of War, except for the fact people know it is useless to vote Gears, so time to back RE 4 over KH II.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
charmander6000 | Posted 5/3/2009 6:38:26 AM | message detail
Because we have so much information on all the games in this contest.

If anything SotC should be much stronger than Wander because apparently the guy's name is only mentioned at the end. The warning signs that Gears of War has dropped should have been on once Fenix went from a decent performance in 2007 to be embarrassed in 2008.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > KHII Points: 73/104
ZFS | Posted 5/3/2009 6:55:49 AM | message detail
SOTC has always been a decently popular game, it certainly makes more sense for it to do well than something like Okami. No idea where this no one has played it comes from, it sold more than both Symphonia and Okami, after all.

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a metal slime appears
Ultimaphazon | Posted 5/3/2009 6:59:26 AM | message detail
GoW performing like this because of Last place Factor is something I don't buy.
Yes, most voters probably think that the match here is KH2 vs RE4, but then explain why SotC isn't dying here.
It too should suffer the same way, because no one expects it to advance.

LPF can exist in some cases, but I don't think this is one of those cases. GoW just isn't that popular. I'll buy it being SFF'd by RE4, before I blame this on LPF.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/3/2009 7:00:17 AM | message detail
Damn, RE4. I was talking about RE4 looking bad because of KH2 standing out last night, but that was more along the lines of it having to put up the numbers of a Top Ten game. This is making RE4 look like it might not even be in the Top TWENTY, because there's only so much respect I can give KH2 here. Maybe if SotC wasn't sucking down 20% of the vote I'd feel better about this performance, but as it stands my bracket is mighty queasy over this.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/3/2009 7:04:00 AM | message detail
Fortunately, though, regardless of whether or not KH2 actually upsets it today it's looking safe to advance next round if FF12 makes it through (and all indications point to that, though it still makes me uneasy). Then it's got a Round 3 showdown with... MGS3, and TP breathing down its neck?

Damn it the one time I don't take an MGS game out of the division
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
ZFS | Posted 5/3/2009 7:05:22 AM | message detail
I'd feel good about RE4 over MGS3, so long as TP doesn't actually hurt RE4 through some weird lack of Nintendo support.

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a metal slime appears
voltch | Posted 5/3/2009 7:07:09 AM | message detail
didn't RE4 sell better on PS2?
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/3/2009 7:08:17 AM | message detail
I dunno, I would've felt safe with RE4 over KH2, and yet here we are. I wouldn't have felt comfortable with taking either KH game over MGS2 before today, and that's fully acknowledging all its shortcomings. Putting either KH over MGS3 would have been a biiiiiiig stretch.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
ZFS | Posted 5/3/2009 7:12:17 AM | message detail
I always thought KH2 could make this a close match, if not possibly upset RE4, because it never seemed like the type of game that was gonna be top 10 strength. I don't think this makes it weak, though, it's still probably safely a top 20 game.

I said before this match I'd take both KH's over the two Metal Gears and I feel pretty good about that after this. MGS3's performance yesterday was pretty tame, nothing that makes me think it's much further ahead than MGS2, which had a pretty disappointing show earlier. There could be some wacky SFF there or whatever, but I'd expect the KHs to be the stronger games.

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a metal slime appears
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/3/2009 7:17:05 AM | message detail
"Tame" performances are only relative to the competition. Tell me, which do you take pre-contest - 60% on World of Warcraft, or 60% on Shadow of the Colossus? It's hard to be impressed by any entrant in this match, much more than previous showings.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/3/2009 7:18:44 AM | message detail
Looks like we have another pretty good match here. I'd expect KHII to continue cutting for pretty much the entire day, but it's doing so slowly enough that it might need that long to catch up.
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FastFalcon and Solid Snake snapped my neck in the guru contest.
ZFS | Posted 5/3/2009 7:23:16 AM | message detail
I would have said both suck pre-contest, but 60% on WoW would have gotten a slight edge from me -- I took WoW to advance there and it wasn't because I thought it was strong.

This is going to look a little different by the end, though. SOTC is gonna fall all day, KH will rise, and RE4... who knows. After how well Okami managed to do yesterday, I'm not gonna to make a big deal out of SOTC doing the same thing.

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a metal slime appears
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/3/2009 7:31:31 AM | message detail
Time to predict tomorrow's match at last!

Alright, so we have perhaps the best game of the division in this match, known as Half-Life 2 (just kidding, RE4 is the best), and it has awesome physics and varied gameplay. At the very least, its level design is something to talk about. I watched some of the game at YouTube, and I loved what I saw (especially the part about having to take down an entire helicopter, and Ravenholm). Half-Life 2 also got first place in Stuff Magazine's Top 100 Games List (though Elite and Turrican 2 didn't even make the contest in addition to Grand Theft Auto III and DOOM already being eliminated). Unfortunately, HL2 will get trounced here; it is facing a Legend of Zelda game. Twilight Princess, as much of a rehash as it is, is a humongous game, and you'd be hard-pressed to find many games with as much content (does ANY game has as much content?), and TP is very enjoyable. But will Gordon Freeman not even advance? Well, the match pic seems to favor HL2. In addition, Final Fantasy XII took the series in a new direction when nobody wanted it, and so therefore, if current results tell us anything, will NOT pose a threat. Not to mention that Gordon Freeman has already beaten the game's most popular character easily. And Phoenix Wright gets last place (it must be noted that Phoenix Wright hails from the same company as Mega Man, who also is mostly Nintendo), especially seeing as how a major Nintendo title is here. One thing that must be noted is how the post-Ocarina of Time Zelda games have disappointed in their matches; could Twilight Princess follow that? We shall see. Another thing is that Gordon Freeman beat Ganondorf in the last character battle. It's possible that could mean a lot; sure there was another Nintendo character in the poll, but that was, uhm, THAT TALL ANDROID THINGY (also known as Samus Aran). Then again, maybe Ganondorf was SFFd within the Smash fanbase. Who knows?

Zelda: Twilight Princess - 35%
Half-Life 2 - 30%
Final Fantasy XII - 25%
Phoenix Wright - 10%

Prediction - Zelda: Twilight Princess > Half-Life 2
Bracket - Half-Life 2 > Zelda: Twilight Princess
Favorites - Half-Life 2 > Zelda: Twilight Princess
paulg235 | Posted 5/3/2009 7:35:50 AM | message detail
Triple 9's to go. This has come back to Bacon's close match theory. Let's go, KH2!
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
Meeks54 | Posted 5/3/2009 7:37:42 AM | message detail
TP>FF XII.


Now that FF IX beat HL, that decision became much easier. Next match please.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
paulg235 | Posted 5/3/2009 7:40:31 AM | message detail
Brawl > SF4 > P4 > GTAIV believe
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
Smurf FAQs | Posted 5/3/2009 7:41:22 AM | message detail
Oh Phoenix Wright will be getting a lot more than 10% believe me.
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/3/2009 7:44:02 AM | message detail
Phoenix Wright is going to impress tomorrow and FFXII probably has no problems dealing with Half-Life 2. The question is: how long is PW in second? 5 minutes? 30 minutes? The entire match (do you believe)?
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/3/2009 7:59:59 AM | message detail
You're underestimating this board if you think Phoenix Wright can't lead against TP for 5 minutes, that or you are overestimating TP.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > KHII Points: 73/104
paulg235 | Posted 5/3/2009 8:32:12 AM | message detail
KH2 needs 6/7 votes per update to take the lead.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/3/2009 8:37:04 AM | message detail
God, is Kingdom Hearts 2 seriously 1.5% away from beating RESIDENT EVIL 4???

I have a question to ask though. What are Leon's usual trends?
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/3/2009 8:38:28 AM | message detail
RE4 is screwed.
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I'm gonna keep on going, I know I'll be strong.
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voltch | Posted 5/3/2009 8:39:05 AM | message detail
oh no,KHII don't do this.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
paulg235 | Posted 5/3/2009 8:45:52 AM | message detail
WTH RE4 spike vote?
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/3/2009 8:50:50 AM | message detail
Phoenix Wright beats HL2 tomorrow book it
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
Master Moltar | Posted 5/3/2009 8:59:19 AM | message detail
I expected more from RE4, but I can accept that I underestimated KH2. Both probably end up in the low-Top 20's.

I think RE4 will be able to stay ahead. It's doing fine holding up against KH's morning/day vote so far.
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Moltar Status: ahh, there you are
Match 27 - Bracket: RE4 > KH2 - Vote: RE4 (71/104)
red sox 777 | Posted 5/3/2009 9:10:58 AM | message detail
KH2 has cut off 300 votes in about 4 and a half hours since RE4's lead peaked. The encouraging thing for RE4 is that KH hasn't been accelerating the past couple of hours, despite the weekend day vote starting late.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
BDawg | Posted 5/3/2009 9:30:45 AM | message detail
Yeah after the last hour of stalling I'm actually liking RE4's chances of holding on. But who knows with it being the weekend and all. If it was a weekday it's just be "oh easy KH win in 3 hours."
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Should I start running now?
hochiminhX | Posted 5/3/2009 9:48:57 AM | message detail
RE4 has a 60% chance of winning today. KHII has a 40% chance of winning today.

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I may be fine and divine, but sometimes even contest know-nothings like Jose make better predictions than I...though not often
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/3/2009 9:52:48 AM | message detail
If it weren't for the fact that this is just a contest and there are other elsewhere, I would be so mad at this site right now.
MetricTrout | Posted 5/3/2009 10:07:32 AM | message detail
So everyone suddenly thinks that FF12 has a chance of advancing tomorrow.

Let me remind you that Gears of War put up 46.35% on FF12. You know, the same Gears of War that has less than 14% in today's poll.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2630

Yeah, it is a Final Fantasy game. One that happens to be hated by a significant chunk of the fanbase. And it should be significantly weaker than it was in 2006, since the hate for bad games tends to grow once people have a chance to digest them.

In all likelihood, FF12 will probably come out last in the poll.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/3/2009 10:09:59 AM | message detail
I don't mean to sound condescending, but is that a joke post? GotY polls have already proven themselves to be just about the most unreliable pieces of info we have.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
ZFS | Posted 5/3/2009 10:10:34 AM | message detail
Metric'd

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a metal slime appears
red sox 777 | Posted 5/3/2009 10:10:46 AM | message detail
If you want to use the 2006 GOTY polls, guess what other game FFXII beat?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2622

Yep, KH2.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/3/2009 10:11:25 AM | message detail
I prefer Trout'd

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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/3/2009 10:15:44 AM | message detail
Yeah, Trout'd sounds good.
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I've been waiting for this moment all my life - it's my destiny.
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Smurf FAQs | Posted 5/3/2009 10:23:31 AM | message detail
Does anyone seriously think Half Life 2 will do anything tomorrow? If you do, you haven't learned anything from this contest. Phoenix Wright actually has a shot of grabbing 3rd instead of it tomorrow, TP and FFXII are on a different planet.
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.
voltch | Posted 5/3/2009 10:30:49 AM | message detail
Phoenix beat that hobo gordon,only the tank engine and flash gordon are good chars with the name gordon.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
charmander6000 | Posted 5/3/2009 10:33:15 AM | message detail
FFIX got 62.5% against HL, while IMO FF9 > FF12 and HL2 > HL that's still a big gap to close in.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > KHII Points: 73/104