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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 700 (God's 100 topics incoming!)

transience | Posted 5/2/2009 4:16:07 PM | message detail
Zero? really? after all the trouble Mega Man's had vs. Zelda in the past?
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xyzzy
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 4:17:03 PM | message detail
Personally I think those are all anomolies and shouldn't need a saying.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/2/2009 4:21:10 PM | message detail
Don't we call that SFF or are we changing sayings again?

There's SFF and there's what happened to Sephiroth when FFVII fans tried to rally Cloud past Snake.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/2/2009 4:21:25 PM | message detail
Well, you can explain that one through SFF, I suppose. But we've seen enough cases of it over the past 2 years that I don't think it's coincidence, just like how all the top tier characters had disappointing performances in the first round last year. And the 2k7 final is pretty much indisputable evidence.
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transience | Posted 5/2/2009 4:23:43 PM | message detail
again, that's a pretty clear exception. you could make the argument for Crono in the 2k8 final too (surprised you didn't!). the final is different.

but this isn't something we see on a regular basis. if it was, I'd hope you could give me more examples!
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xyzzy
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transience | Posted 5/2/2009 4:23:56 PM | message detail
we need some Finals Factor, hmmm
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xyzzy
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ZFS | Posted 5/2/2009 4:25:28 PM | message detail
Is there any particular reason we're talking about this 'last place factor'?

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/2/2009 4:28:33 PM | message detail
I was going to say the 2k8 final was also incontrovertible evidence until I realized that a bunch of people would be in here within seconds talking about Cloud/Crono SFF (which is nonsense, NOTHING SFFs Crono and FFVII/CT overlap isn't that big anyway), and the debate would inevitably have veered off into a Crono/Mario/Samus debate with me saying that now after CTDS Crono = Samus >> Mario. Yeah, let's just avoid that debate until we get more evidence (like CT/SM64).

As for the final being an exception, well, Last Place Factor in general deals with exceptions- it's not something that happens in every match to some degree like LFF.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 4:29:34 PM | message detail
WoW/Halo 2 is now the closest match
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/2/2009 4:30:51 PM | message detail
Is there any particular reason we're talking about this 'last place factor'?

Boring match is boring.
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Master Moltar | Posted 5/2/2009 4:36:24 PM | message detail
uh do we really need a name for every little anomaly (or result that happens that we don't necessarily like!)?

obvious first place and last place factor what
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Moltar Status: ahh, there you are
Match 26 - Bracket: MGS3 > Halo 2 - Vote: MGS3 (69/100)
red sox 777 | Posted 5/2/2009 4:37:46 PM | message detail
As for other examples....maybe Squall/Sora/Aeris/Lara and MC/Luigi/Ganon/Yuna. Those are very much debatable though. Maybe Crono/Pikachu/L-Block/Alucard as someone has said, although that's also very much debatable.

Cloud/Samus/Megaman/Ryu seems a pretty good example, actually- Ryu got pressed down to 11% after doing well for 3 rounds. I haven't searched very hard, but that's probably our best example outside the 2k7 final if you don't accept the Link/Vincent/Crono/Zero match.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/2/2009 4:43:24 PM | message detail
uh do we really need a name for every little anomaly (or result that happens that we don't necessarily like!)?

Apparently we do.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/2/2009 4:46:54 PM | message detail
From: Master Moltar
uh do we really need a name for every little anomaly (or result that happens that we don't necessarily like!)?

Okami is losing because of the Consistently Losing Votes Factor. It makes me sad. CLVF is such a *****.
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Okami would be winning if it didn't exist.
SonicRaptor | Posted 5/2/2009 4:57:54 PM | message detail
uh do we really need a name for every little anomaly (or result that happens that we don't necessarily like!)?

Evidently, though it was kind of funny the first few times.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/2/2009 6:06:15 PM | message detail
I don't know what Last Place Factor is, but I think Stand Out Factor (or Sore Thumb Factor or whatever you wanna call it) is a decent theory that deserves a name.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/2/2009 6:10:51 PM | message detail
I think there's many more negative cases than positive cases of STF, which seems to me to be LFF under a more subjective definition (and LFF is already pretty subjective). I'm not fond of it.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/2/2009 6:11:35 PM | message detail
I don't know what Last Place Factor is, but I think Stand Out Factor (or Sore Thumb Factor or whatever you wanna call it) is a decent theory that deserves a name.

Again, name an instance where it's mattered. I asked earlier and no one could name anything.

Most of these things we try to attribute theories to are just anomalies or games failing to live up to our expectations, like tranny said. Something goes wrong, make up a factor.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/2/2009 6:20:54 PM | message detail
I just want to know how we even got the name Sore Thumb Factor. What?

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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/2/2009 6:26:44 PM | message detail
I believe that's Karma Hunter's doing.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/2/2009 6:27:07 PM | message detail
The first time I remember people discussing it is with Ness/Alucard/Liquid/Zidane.

"Ness is the only Nintendo character against three PSX characters! Surely he can take advantage of it and win!"
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/2/2009 6:28:56 PM | message detail
Aha, but Liquid was the only non-RPG character; therefore this is the Sore Thumb Factor at work!

This is why I don't like it; it's far too easy to play with. It's looking for LFF where there probably isn't any.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/2/2009 6:30:02 PM | message detail
What about Mewtwo?


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BGE2 - Today: MGS3 > WoW - Points: 70/100 Vote: MGS3
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/2/2009 6:49:28 PM | message detail
Most of these things we try to attribute theories to are just anomalies or games failing to live up to our expectations, like tranny said. Something goes wrong, make up a factor.

Not necessarily. I'm not sure if we've been trying to think up new factors for the unexpected results during this contest. It appears as though people have, but I don't recall them. I'm not even sure if Stand Out Factor can be attributed to something like Symphonia - I'd certainly hesitate to. However, there was definitely something up with a few of those character matches (Boss's Round 1 showing that I mentioned before, Ryu Hayabusa beating Zero in a performance he'd never be able to replicate via 1v1, Pikachu beating the snot out of Leon). Mario vs. Cloud was an anomaly, as was Mario vs. Shadow. But to chalk each of these instances up as anomalies that we shouldn't bother explaining is lazy, in my opinion. Something was up.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/2/2009 6:55:23 PM | message detail
STF was coined off of Dante/Leon/Amaterasu/Pikachu. The other viable explanations seem to have disqualified themselves, so unless someone else has something better I'll be inclined to keep using the term.

It's not like it hasn't shown up in other instances where straight "LFF" or whatever you want to call it hasn't proved sufficient. Liquid went from 45% on Luigi to 43% on Mega Man X in the span of three rounds. If you can give me a better reason than this: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb7/cb7-50-3.jpg , I'd like to hear it.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 6:55:38 PM | message detail
Isn't the Stand Out Factor the character/game benefitting from LFF? Why do we need two names?
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BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
transience | Posted 5/2/2009 6:55:47 PM | message detail
I like the so-called Sore Thumb Factor more than I do some weird anomaly regarding last place with no explanation whatsoever. at least there's an explanation for an overperformance instead of 'game x lost worse than I expected so this weird Factor happened for seemingly no reason'.
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xyzzy
The Real Truth | Posted 5/2/2009 6:55:59 PM | message detail
Lets start talking about how amazing RE4 is.
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transience | Posted 5/2/2009 6:56:26 PM | message detail
it's the opposite, actually - instead of suffering from LFF, it's benefitting from the lack of LFF.

argh terminology
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xyzzy
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/2/2009 7:02:47 PM | message detail
From: Karma Hunter
STF was coined off of Dante/Leon/Amaterasu/Pikachu. The other viable explanations seem to have disqualified themselves, so unless someone else has something better I'll be inclined to keep using the term.

It's not like it hasn't shown up in other instances where straight "LFF" or whatever you want to call it hasn't proved sufficient. Liquid went from 45% on Luigi to 43% on Mega Man X in the span of three rounds. If you can give me a better reason than this: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb7/cb7-50-3.jpg , I'd like to hear it.


Mega Man folds to Nintendo. Mario is Mr Nintendo, he also SFFs Luigi. Liquid performs better as a result. Anything with that? Of course you could argue that's what STF is. It's being the thing in the poll with the least overlap.
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w/e.
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/2/2009 7:03:07 PM | message detail
Also, because a character with STF underperforms relative to our expectations doesn't invalidate the idea of it. After all, Ness failed to capitalize in that match in 2k7, yet people gave him the benefit of the doubt in 2k8 and ended up getting reamed by Pac-Man. It's probable that Liquid or Alucard would have pulverized the kid in 1v1.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 7:04:52 PM | message detail
Match XXVII: Gears of War vs. Kingdom Hearts II vs. Resident Evil 4 vs. Shadow of the Colossus

Information:

Name: Gears of War
Year: 2006
System: Xbox 360
Top 100 Placing: N/A

Name: Kingdom Hearts II
Year: 2006
System: PS2
Top 100 Placing: N/A

Name: Resident Evil 4
Year: 2005
System: GC
Top 100 Placing: 14th

Name: Shadow of the Colossus
Year: 2005
System: PS2
Top 100 Placing: N/A

Analysis

Continuing the division we have a game that board 8 has for the most part put a lot of faith in, the sequel to the game that caused the square boost, 360’s 2006 Game of the Year and a small fanbase that is able to nominate this game despite knowing it will fail. The first round is in its final week which will mark the half-way point of this contest.

Shadow of the Colossus will come in last in this match. We’ve seen Wander in two contests and in both he has failed terribly. Oddly enough his name isn’t mentioned until the end of the game so like Half-Life and Gordon Freeman in 2004 I don’t see Shadow of the Colossus embarrassing itself like Wander usually does. Still competition is pretty stiff in this match and while it will avoid sub 10% it won’t be in contention at any point.

Gears of War on the other hand can take advantage if either Resident Evil 4 or Kingdom Hearts II turns out to be a flop. With the odd exception of Halo and Halo 2 Xbox games in general have done better relative to expectations. Still while the game will look good it would take a flop from the competition if Gears of War wants to advance.

Kingdom Hearts II should perform to expectations, though for many the expectations for it are pretty low. The original Kingdom Hearts did fairly well so a flop by the sequel will be unexpected. Kingdom Hearts II got the shaft in this division, had it been placed in the top half the game would have easily gone to round 3 yet as it stands now it would take a flop from Resident Evil 4 for that to happen.

In my opinion Resident Evil 4 is the true wild card of the tournament; it can be eliminated in round 2 or it can reach the finals. Despite not being from Square or Nintendo Resident Evil 4 can potentially be a strong game. On the other hand we could be setting ourselves up for a major flopping. It wouldn’t be the first time a game was overhyped. For it to fail to advance out of the division finals would be the surprise of the tournament and will probably create more questions than answers.

While potentially this could be a close match more likely it will be a bore with each game at a far enough distance to not make this match interesting. Like many first round matches the performance done here will reflect on future rounds when the game eventually has a debatable match.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Resident Evil 4 > Kingdom Hearts II

charmander6000’s Prediction: Resident Evil 4 – 37.73%, Kingdom Hearts II – 31.03%, Gears of War – 19.94%, Shadow of the Colossus – 11.30%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/2/2009 7:06:56 PM | message detail
Mega Man folds to Nintendo. Mario is Mr Nintendo, he also SFFs Luigi. Liquid performs better as a result. Anything with that? Of course you could argue that's what STF is. It's being the thing in the poll with the least overlap.

But overlap in STF isn't necessarily dependent on the kind of fanbase splitting we usually coin SFF/LFF off of. It's actually, literally, standing out from the rest of the pack. L-Block and Block-Snake likely benefited from the effect as well, though it was overshadowed by their joke-y trends (even when Cloud was ripping into Snake during the ASV in the Finals, Snake was still getting more on Cloud on every update than any character not named Link or Sephiroth 2k3 had ever done).
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/2/2009 7:07:46 PM | message detail
Of course you could argue that's what STF is. It's being the thing in the poll with the least overlap.

You could, but I think it's a bit different. A character like Crash Bandicoot has absolutely zero overlap with the likes of Luigi, Ganondorf, and Mega Man X, but I doubt he would overperform in such a scenario because he simply doesn't "stand out," whereas a character of similar strength who does (for the sake of the example, let's just go with Gray Fox) would stand a better chance at an overperformance.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/2/2009 7:32:55 PM | message detail
I thought Stand Out Factor or Sore Thumb Factor was just the same thing as LFF. Same Fanbase Factor, Leech Fanbase Factor- what matters is that there is overlap. And there is overlap between all characters- for example Link and Cloud have tons of overlap because there are tons of people who like both. A character in 4-ways is helped if he is more independent than the other characters in the poll.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/2/2009 7:57:47 PM | message detail
Guys, do you think Okami is being SFFd in today's match? Do you think Resident Evil 4 could SFF Kingdom Hearts 2 and Shadow of the Colossus (especially the latter) in tomorrow's match?
Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/2/2009 8:20:58 PM | message detail
I'd certainly say that Crash overlaps with Luigi, given that Sonic overlaps so much with Mario.
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transience | Posted 5/2/2009 8:20:58 PM | message detail
standout factor more like rLFF

gotta see RE4 let's do this
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xyzzy
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 5/2/2009 8:46:04 PM | message detail
I've got a strange feeling that KH2 is going to dominate here, maybe beating RE4 by 10%. Hopefully not.
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Big Bob | Posted 5/2/2009 8:47:47 PM | message detail
RE4 with 70% lets do this
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ZFS | Posted 5/2/2009 8:49:10 PM | message detail
resident flop 4

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a metal slime appears
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/2/2009 8:53:37 PM | message detail
Resident Evil 4 is pretty primed to completely flop.

I can't say definitively who I favour, but KH1 impressed enough that I give KH2 the edge here.
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transience | Posted 5/2/2009 8:55:42 PM | message detail
president's daughter's been kidnapped
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 5/2/2009 8:55:46 PM | message detail
it's up to us
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xyzzy
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Lopen | Posted 5/2/2009 8:57:36 PM | message detail
No problem, BRO.
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/2/2009 8:57:42 PM | message detail
Well we will soon see how it does.

I still have KH2>RE4 for my prediction, but we never know what could happen here.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/2/2009 8:59:14 PM | message detail
Your right hand comes off?

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transience | Posted 5/2/2009 8:59:32 PM | message detail
there's a bit too much KH2 hype in here based on how much it beat GTA by.
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xyzzy
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Master Moltar | Posted 5/2/2009 9:00:20 PM | message detail
yeahhh re4
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Moltar Status: ahh, there you are
Match 27 - Bracket: RE4 > KH2 - Vote: RE4 (71/104)
transience | Posted 5/2/2009 9:00:32 PM | message detail
JUMP GYPSY
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yzzyx