GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 700 (God's 100 topics incoming!)
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/2/2009 2:53:03 PM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | Posted: 5/2/2009 5:52:17 PM | #048 Alright, Zero it is. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´ "ToS reminds of my mother. It goes down a lot after 1:00 AM." -GrapefruitKing |
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/2/2009 2:53:36 PM | message detail |
From: nintendogirl1 | Posted: 5/2/2009 5:52:58 PM | #050 50% of my degree is also English, but I'm assuming you studied English in Britain or something. --- `·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´ "ToS reminds of my mother. It goes down a lot after 1:00 AM." -GrapefruitKing |
XxSoulxX | Posted 5/2/2009 2:54:06 PM | message detail |
Also, per HaRRicH's awesome request, replacing rSFF with LFF. Lemme know if my definition sucks or something. Whoa, what? I requested that change like three weeks ago! --- Good Times, Great Memories |
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/2/2009 2:54:11 PM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX 50% of my degree is also English, but I'm assuming you studied English in Britain or something. Bingo. We do it properly. --- :p |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/2/2009 2:54:54 PM | message detail |
There
have been worse predictions than expecting PoP to get 10% as opposed to
the 4.5% it got. That was probably due to the sucky game factor than
the last place factor. And I'd wager the Prince gets approximately 0% of his strength from that game, so don't even compare the game to the character. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/2/2009 2:56:58 PM | message detail |
People argued Diablo had a better day vote when it's lost every single day vote it's ever had? Diablo owned face against Kefka and Bison, but that's Kefka and Bison. Arthas didn't have a great ASV either. Remember Ike. Thrall didn't either. Ratchet was down several thousand votes going into the ASV and outright beat Thrall during that time period. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/2/2009 2:57:10 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour There have been worse predictions than expecting PoP to get 10% as opposed to the 4.5% it got. That was probably due to the sucky game factor than the last place factor. And I'd wager the Prince gets approximately 0% of his strength from that game, so don't even compare the game to the character. I'd argue it proportionally. It's far harder to gauge a game that's going to rip up it's opponents then fold completely. And while the Prince gains, you're absolutely right, 0% of his strength from that game, they still have the exact same name. --- It should have performed better. |
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/2/2009 2:58:09 PM | message detail |
From: UltimaterializerX | #049 Boo ToS |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/2/2009 2:59:14 PM | message detail |
The
only problem with predictions in this contest (for the first round
anyway) is that Oracle predictions are for the most part complete
guesses based on NOTHING. I wouldn't go by what people expected PoP to
get compared to what he really got because there was absolutely NO
basis for predicting PoP to get 10%. It was a guess. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/2/2009 2:59:19 PM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #056 Warcraft 3=/=WoW --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/2/2009 3:00:32 PM | message detail |
Hey, PoP seems to have discredited the old "Big Sword Factor." I mean, with 2 swords in the picture, how can you do so badly? --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/2/2009 3:00:32 PM | message detail |
When did Blizzard ever have a good ASV? |
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/2/2009 3:00:46 PM | message detail |
or even a decent one for that matter |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/2/2009 3:01:03 PM | message detail |
Well,
I could point to Kerrigan as well and just say that Blizzard as a whole
has had a sucky day vote no matter where you look, so being technical
about Warcraft doesn't really matter. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/2/2009 3:01:54 PM | message detail |
I
thought WoW would have a bad day vote. Not terrible but... bad. But
apparently it's pretty average I guess. Of the nearly 2% that Halo's
gone up with the day it's only taken like .3% from WoW --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/2/2009 3:02:06 PM | message detail |
WoW is also alot more casual and day vote prone then other Blizzard series, which are more hardcore PC titles. That was my reasoning to expect WoW to have a better day vote. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif |
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/2/2009 3:34:31 PM | message detail |
Well either way it looks like its gonna be MGS3>WoW just as i predicted. Apparently the Halo series has lost strength since the last contest. As for tomorrows match, Kingdom Hearts II in 1st place seems to be a no brainer, however im not so sure about RE4 getting 2nd. --- "If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus |
charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 3:39:13 PM | message detail |
As for tomorrows match, Kingdom Hearts II in 1st place seems to be a no brainer, however im not so sure about RE4 getting 2nd. Wrong way buddy, but I am a bit nervous on Resident Evil 4. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100 |
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/2/2009 3:40:37 PM | message detail |
Oh really charmander? Whats your logic then? --- "If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/2/2009 3:40:44 PM | message detail |
KH2
was beaten easily by FF12 in the best PS2 game of the year poll of
2006, and Resident Evil was one of the top games on the game of the
century poll, and easily blew away its competition in the 2005 Goty poll There is no logical reason to expect kh2 to be anywhere close to it. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/2/2009 3:40:59 PM | message detail |
WoW's
lead on Halo 2 has been in the 2600-2700 range since halfway through
the match. This has got to be the longest stall I've ever seen. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/2/2009 3:42:20 PM | message detail |
As
I see it, RE4 has a shot...but it depends on how strong its Wii fanbase
is. I just don't see its PS2 fanbase picking it over KHII, even though
SFF/LFF has failed horribly up until now. |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/2/2009 3:43:23 PM | message detail |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/2/2009 3:43:46 PM | message detail |
Uh, its on GC too and thats where a lot of its support is from. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/2/2009 3:44:07 PM | message detail |
RE4 was released on the PS2 and did quite well, though. It outsold the Gamecube version. --- I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him. |
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/2/2009 3:45:30 PM | message detail |
Well considering how this contest has been so far, it seems we can't use the stats of previous contests to determine outcomes. Yesterday's match was a prime example of that. Hardly anyone thought ToS would advance let alone GTA:SA drop to last and not advance. And no im not insulting you guys, im just saying so far this contest has thrown quite a few curveballs lately. --- "If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/2/2009 3:46:01 PM | message detail |
Plus
I don't see KH/RE fanbases overlapping much, PS2 regardless. One is a
Disney/FF focused game and other is a gory action game. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif |
charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 3:47:49 PM | message detail |
Oh really charmander? Whats your logic then? Resident Evil 4 was huge, plus coming out during a gaming drought is helpful. You'll always see it being ranked as one of the best games from last generation and GameFAQs on average liked it unlike GTA or Halo. Kingdom Hearts II while square will have strength though the original one did nothing special a few matches ago. RE4 has a better chance at flopping, but I don't see KHII winning. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100 |
transience | Posted 5/2/2009 3:51:59 PM | message detail |
we
just saw two matches where first and last place were separated by like
5000 votes at most. Last Place Factor doesn't exist. (who came up with
this? someone who wanted their weak game to look better?) --- yzzyx |
charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 3:53:14 PM | message detail |
we
just saw two matches where first and last place were separated by like
5000 votes at most. Last Place Factor doesn't exist. (who came up with
this? someone who wanted their weak game to look better?) Don't you know had San Andreas and Okami not been in last they would have won? >_> --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100 |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/2/2009 3:53:24 PM | message detail |
WoW is also alot more casual and day vote prone then other Blizzard series, which are more hardcore PC titles. That was my reasoning to expect WoW to have a better day vote. Halo's ASV could also be weaker since this is a weekend match. Just a few days ago, Halo cut off over a 1000 votes from Diablo II's lead and that was a weekday match. WoW's lead has stayed around 2700 for the past few hours, so it seems like WoW and Halo are going almost even with the ASV. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ! |
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/2/2009 3:55:13 PM | message detail |
Last
Place Factor is the theory that an entrant that would be an obvious
last place finisher in terms of popularity would fall behind by more
than the actual popularity would imply. So it's not like matches with
close last places disprove it. Not that I really care for the theory or anything. --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
MinFarshaw | Posted 5/2/2009 3:56:13 PM | message detail |
LFF is just SFF in four way matches, this topic is dumb. |
transience | Posted 5/2/2009 4:00:47 PM | message detail |
Last
Place Factor is the theory that an entrant that would be an obvious
last place finisher in terms of popularity would fall behind by more
than the actual popularity would imply. So it's not like matches with
close last places disprove it. doesn't this just say that weak games are gonna be weak and strong gam.. wait, nevermind, this just isn't worth it --- xyzzy http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/2/2009 4:01:23 PM | message detail |
It should have the "obvious fist place underperformance factor too. Not all obvious "first place" games (or characters) underperform. This more applies with the Noble Nine, since everyone knows they'll get first place in their round 1 match. And Tales of Symphonia to advance to R3 thanks to WoW/Oblivion LFF!!1!!1 Oblivion also has a PS3 and Xbox 360 release, in addition to its PC release. I'm not expecting either game to be hurt by PC LFF because of this fact. Last Place Factor is the theory that an entrant that would be an obvious last place finisher in terms of popularity would fall behind by more than the actual popularity would imply. By "obvious last place finisher", I think this applies to fodder. Okami and San Andreas aren't fodder. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ! |
transience | Posted 5/2/2009 4:02:13 PM | message detail |
fodder performs like fodder -- more at 11 --- xyzzy http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png |
MinFarshaw | Posted 5/2/2009 4:02:23 PM | message detail |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
MinFarshaw | Posted 5/2/2009 4:02:44 PM | message detail |
It means weak games are going to be absurdly weak instead of just very weak. Or something like that. The point is that whether you think it exists or not, the last two matches were completely irrelevant to Last Place Factor. |
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/2/2009 4:04:23 PM | message detail |
I
think the idea is more along the lines of fodder performing like
turbofodder and turbofodder performing like the bastard child of
Adventure and Tanner. But what do I know, I'm just the Stupid Newbie. :p |
transience | Posted 5/2/2009 4:06:15 PM | message detail |
examples?
we're basing this on expectations instead of anything concrete. it's
like we're rationalizing bad picks by giving them some nonsense Factor
that doesn't mean anything. --- xyzzy http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png |
therealmnm | Posted 5/2/2009 4:06:33 PM | message detail |
Why
are we discussing Last Place Factor? It's not like it affects anything,
unless you're trying to use the match to determine said last place
game's overall strength, which is a pretty dumb thing to do in the
first place unless you have NO other data to go by. And really, it just applies when there is a 4th entrant that is undoubtedly outclassed by the other 3. It doesn't have to involve fodder or weak entrants. It's all relative. --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/2/2009 4:08:26 PM | message detail |
It's
not limited to fodder. For example, in the 2007 final. Link gets nearly
71% on Snake because no on really expected anything from Snake in that
match and the attention was on everyone else. Generally, you'd have to think that Snake could handle himself to get more than 21% on Link. I mean hell, Vincent got like 23% against him in that contest. It's not about weaker characters performing badly it's about weaker characters performing even MORE badly than usual. --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
transience | Posted 5/2/2009 4:10:49 PM | message detail |
the finals are an exception - everyone knew what the real match was there. Snake never had a chance. but like, DKC2 getting Last Place Factor'd? huh? what would it have gotten if it didn't have this evil factor working against it. if there was a weaker game than DKC2 in that pack, would it have done that much better? --- xyzzy |
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/2/2009 4:11:17 PM | message detail |
For
example, in the 2007 final. Link gets nearly 71% on Snake because no on
really expected anything from Snake in that match and the attention was
on everyone else. And in the 2008 final, Link only got 54.82% on Snake. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ! |
charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 4:11:24 PM | message detail |
The only good examples that I can think of from last contest are Crono in the finals and Alucard in round 3 Then you get other characters that probably overperformed in round 1 due to lack of competition; Nero, Falco, Nightmare. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100 |
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/2/2009 4:12:01 PM | message detail |
From: transience | #093 Exactly. There's nothing saying that mentality has to be exclusive to the finals --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/2/2009 4:12:48 PM | message detail |
People
like Sephiroth get Last Place Factor'd when people are desperately
trying to help Cloud because they're in the same match. Those are
anomalies rather than anything concrete or consistent. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 4:14:02 PM | message detail |
People
like Sephiroth get Last Place Factor'd when people are desperately
trying to help Cloud because they're in the same match. Those are
anomalies rather than anything concrete or consistent. Don't we call that SFF or are we changing sayings again? --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100 |
transience | Posted 5/2/2009 4:14:27 PM | message detail |
I
say that it has to be a special mindset. Galaga didn't lose votes
because people thought it was gonna be Contra vs. Metroid, that's just
silly. Cloud vs. Link vs. L-Block was very clearly the exception, I
think. --- xyzzy http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/2/2009 4:15:05 PM | message detail |
Last
place factor is real; we've seen several clear cases of it over the
past 2 years in characters, the clearest example being the 2k7 final as
has been said. The 2k8 final and Link/Vincent/Crono/Zero are good
examples too, and we've seen a lot more that I can't remember off the
top of my head. And before these 2 close matches we had like 15 or
something last place entrants fail to break 10%, not that either of
these proves anything as we didn't know how strong or weak most of
these games were. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
