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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 700 (God's 100 topics incoming!)

UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/3/2009 10:43:33 AM | message detail
This is hilarious. KH2 is on pace to win by about 300 or so.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´
"ToS reminds of my mother. It goes down a lot after 1:00 AM." -GrapefruitKing
MetricTrout | Posted 5/3/2009 10:44:54 AM | message detail
It is true that Game of the Year polls are unreliable. However, we lack sufficient quantitative data nearly every contest prediction, especially in this section of the contest.

The Poll of the Day is only part of the equation. Every other piece of data involving FF12 points to it being horribly weak. The fact that the its characters absolutely blew in the 2007 contest, and did not even make the field in 2008. The MyGames average of 8.2, and a reader review average of 7.8.

And most importantly, the fact that no posts I sift through on these boards seem to paint the game in a positive light. No one seems to call FF12 "overrated" anymore; everyone either calls it "terrible", or its fans try to defend it as "not that bad".

Yeah, FF12 won against Kingdom Hearts 2. Guess what? FF12 was released in the last 2 months of 2006. Not everyone buys a game in the first 2 months, and few can actually complete an RPG in that timeframe. Most people render judgment on a game after they have completed it, in the hope that it will get better as they complete it.

What does that mean? That means that as the 2006 Game of the Year vote draws near, there will be a lot of franchise voting for a game that many have not played, or have not completed. And first impressions on a highly anticipated game are usually positive, while hate tends to take time to develop. Just take a look a Brawl.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/3/2009 10:47:37 AM | message detail
The fact that the its characters absolutely blew in the 2007 contest, and did not even make the field in 2008.

Balthier did come back.

Though your arguments aren't half bad. FFIX was in that poll near its release, and beat KHII near its release. Whether that means a lot is still questionable, though.

I still think it'll be reasonably close depending on how much stronger you think HL2 and how much weaker you think FFIX is.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: RE4 > KHII - Points: 74/104 Vote: RE4
charmander6000 | Posted 5/3/2009 10:52:18 AM | message detail
The problem of using potd is that its bitten us in the ass many times, especially in the previous contests. Anybody remembers this...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=776

Melee has no chance.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > KHII Points: 73/104
ZFS | Posted 5/3/2009 10:57:49 AM | message detail
A lot of the same arguments used against FFXII are ones you saw crop up against FFIX beating HL1, too.

The amount of hate FFXII has is overrated; it's got a number of haters, for sure, but it's not loathed by the fanbase by any means. There are plenty of people who love the game. It's no worse than FFVIII hate -- a game who doesn't do much better when it comes to the MyGames ratings, and who also failed to get any character sans Squall into a contest before.

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a metal slime appears
charmander6000 | Posted 5/3/2009 11:01:55 AM | message detail
Looking at the past hour at this rate Kingdom Hearts II is going to win by about 400 votes.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > KHII Points: 73/104
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/3/2009 11:05:03 AM | message detail
*just saw the poll*

Daaaaaaamn you B8. Convincing me to change KH2 > RE4. *shakes fist in rage*

Biggest surprise of the whole thing = SotC beating Gears of War. Wander(er) actually won something!

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78/104 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Resident Evil 4 > Kingdom Hearts II | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
charmander6000 | Posted 5/3/2009 11:08:39 AM | message detail
A lot of the same arguments used against FFXII are ones you saw crop up against FFIX beating HL1, too.

I agree at the amount Final Fantasy IX won by Half-Life fans can only hope that FFXII/HL2 will be close as from what things are looking like FFXII may not have a problem winning.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > KHII Points: 73/104
MetricTrout | Posted 5/3/2009 11:10:25 AM | message detail
Oops, Balthier did come back.

Hmm... looking at the numbers, Balthier scored 27.7% on the combined forces of Scorpion and Gordon. Falco scored 27.6% on the same two characters the next round.

So there you have it. The strongest FF12 character = a second rate Star Fox character.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/3/2009 11:11:05 AM | message detail
Man, I think he's serious.
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I've been waiting for this moment all my life - it's my destiny.
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The Real Truth | Posted 5/3/2009 11:12:00 AM | message detail
Who votes for KH2 when there are good games in the bracket?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 11:12:15 AM | message detail
way to suck RE4. You have no excuse to possibly lose to KH2
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/3/2009 11:13:07 AM | message detail
Hmm... looking at the numbers, Balthier scored 27.7% on the combined forces of Scorpion and Gordon. Falco scored 27.6% on the same two characters the next round.

So there you have it. The strongest FF12 character = a second rate Star Fox character.


So Freeman randomly going up in strength seems normal to you?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > KHII Points: 73/104
ZFS | Posted 5/3/2009 11:13:07 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3246

whoopz

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a metal slime appears
charmander6000 | Posted 5/3/2009 11:14:34 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3246

whoopz


Don't you know...

SSBM > Duke Nukem > GTA: San Andreas > FFVI
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > KHII Points: 73/104
voltch | Posted 5/3/2009 11:21:57 AM | message detail
that'd be GTAIV

tch,USA likes eastern immigrants more than black people?well maybe Gfaqs voters got bullied by gangsters like OG log,that was NOT CJ in the poll pic.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
charmander6000 | Posted 5/3/2009 11:23:50 AM | message detail
Opps wrong GTA, I have that game in my mind.

At 2005 I was one of the biggest SA fans and that picture looked more like Ryder than CJ.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: RE4 > KHII Points: 73/104
MetricTrout | Posted 5/3/2009 11:23:58 AM | message detail
So Freeman randomly going up in strength seems normal to you?

I think it is a combination of Big Daddy SFFing Freeman a bit, Freeman having a more dedicated fanbase, and Scorpion being an apathy vote.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
hochiminhX | Posted 5/3/2009 11:26:29 AM | message detail
KHII is coming back. I had high hopes for RE4. I am quite disappointed.

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I will bury you.
eaglesarebeasts | Posted 5/3/2009 11:50:07 AM | message detail
Oh boy, KHII is looking determined.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/3/2009 11:55:20 AM | message detail
Tag
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
HaRRicH | Posted 5/3/2009 12:17:20 PM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts: not letting people accurately predict it well since 2003.


RE4 bombing here is pretty amazing -- I figured it would have distanced itself overnight enough to not let KH2 > RE4 be a possibility...but man. RE4 better hang on tight.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
RPGuy96 | Posted 5/3/2009 12:18:40 PM | message detail
I'd wager Kingdom Hearts takes the lead by 9:00, give or take an hour. RE4's going to need some Chrono Trigger/Metal Gear magic to come back and win with the second night.
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Mustache...and Green...
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/3/2009 12:20:31 PM | message detail
I still think RE4 takes it. This is an excruciatingly slow comeback attempt.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/3/2009 12:22:57 PM | message detail
Going by the first KH match, there's no second night vote to hope for. RE4 either has to slow things down and hang on, or hope weekend trends mess things up.
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FastFalcon and Solid Snake snapped my neck in the guru contest.
PiGuy96 | Posted 5/3/2009 12:25:36 PM | message detail
This is true, but it didn't stop Frog from coming back on Axel.
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RPGuy on my crappy laptop
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 5/3/2009 12:28:52 PM | message detail
RE doesn't have Chrono Trigger magic up its sleeve.

I really hope KH2 wins, I friggin' hate RE4.
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but during the time bands are unknown, they aren't good. the moment they
are discovered and well known then they become better. - Humpa
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/3/2009 12:39:10 PM | message detail

From: hochiminhX | Posted: 5/3/2009 2:26:29 PM | #469
KHII is coming back. I had high hopes for RE4. I am quite disappointed.


Ditto.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´
"ToS reminds of my mother. It goes down a lot after 1:00 AM." -GrapefruitKing
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/3/2009 12:39:50 PM | message detail
but during the time bands are unknown, they aren't good. the moment they
are discovered and well known then they become better.


....PLEASE ****ing tell me that's a made-up joke sig.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´
"ToS reminds of my mother. It goes down a lot after 1:00 AM." -GrapefruitKing
HaRRicH | Posted 5/3/2009 12:42:26 PM | message detail
I imagine that sig was made with sarcasm or with the intent of describing how people follow things in herds like sheep.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 12:44:16 PM | message detail
Ultis sarcasm detector isn't very good, is it?
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/3/2009 12:46:53 PM | message detail
No, I can really see someone saying that on LUE or Board 8.

Oh, and the Mega64 for SotC is legendary: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqd9GiaJUos
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´
"ToS reminds of my mother. It goes down a lot after 1:00 AM." -GrapefruitKing
red sox 777 | Posted 5/3/2009 12:49:12 PM | message detail
It's amazing how unexciting this match is, given that it's close, there's a sizable comeback involved, and the winner is still in doubt. Guess slow comebacks aren't very interesting.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/3/2009 12:50:43 PM | message detail
It's because we have 8000 trends to go on and can predict the lead change within an update or two. I miss pre-stat days so much sometimes.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´
"ToS reminds of my mother. It goes down a lot after 1:00 AM." -GrapefruitKing
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/3/2009 12:52:46 PM | message detail
Heh, how could the 666 update go without comment?
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
voltch | Posted 5/3/2009 12:54:13 PM | message detail
somehow i always feel that games we all love get hated after a bad loss,Tales was definately more liked before Lloyd and Kratos jobbed like there's no tomorrow.
PW on the other hand gets more love since it usually does something freakin epic.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
HaRRicH | Posted 5/3/2009 1:04:40 PM | message detail
...man, just realized I took Gears > KH2. Guess I bought into their GotY-polls a lot more than I remembered. Bah.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/3/2009 1:06:35 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #487
...man, just realized I took Gears > KH2. Guess I bought into their GotY-polls a lot more than I remembered. Bah.


You're not the only one. I figured KH wouldn't be much stronger then 2004 plus Gamefaqs actually got taste and has embraced 360.
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Big Bob | Posted 5/3/2009 1:07:08 PM | message detail
Chainsaw SFF, I'm telling you people.
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Want to help out a cult classic doomed to failure in this contest?
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49181355
transience | Posted 5/3/2009 1:08:06 PM | message detail
this match will be good. I still like RE4, I think.
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png
hochiminhX | Posted 5/3/2009 1:08:24 PM | message detail
...man, just realized I took Gears > KH2.


You had RE4 coming in third?


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I will bury you.
HaRRicH | Posted 5/3/2009 1:09:13 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure I was counting more on their polls being recent enough for it not to go TOO wrong and Gears being the most independent. Either way, this hurts if KH2 steals first.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
HaRRicH | Posted 5/3/2009 1:09:41 PM | message detail
I should clarify: RE4 > Gears > KH2.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/3/2009 1:10:25 PM | message detail
It's turned into more of a stall now. KH only cut 26 votes in the last 60 minutes.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
voltch | Posted 5/3/2009 1:11:36 PM | message detail
urgh,I say KHII is winning cause their pretty boys>leon and Ada,god gamers are so shallow.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/3/2009 1:17:36 PM | message detail
Come on baby light my fire
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78/104 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Resident Evil 4 > Kingdom Hearts II | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
HaRRicH | Posted 5/3/2009 1:19:13 PM | message detail
Break on through to the other side!
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/3/2009 1:19:14 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #487
...man, just realized I took Gears > KH2.


Wth. After all the RE4 talk you've given, you didn't even have it placing?


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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: RE4 > KHII - Points: 74/104 Vote: RE4
transience | Posted 5/3/2009 1:19:45 PM | message detail
RE4 to the finals anyway
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
transience | Posted 5/3/2009 1:19:51 PM | message detail
play shadow hearts
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xyzzy
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