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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 699

therealmnm | Posted 5/2/2009 9:46:18 AM | message detail
40% easy
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
voltch | Posted 5/2/2009 9:46:48 AM | message detail
I always wondered how DMC chars>RE chars when it comes to games RE4 is clearly miles ahead of DMC3.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
therealmnm | Posted 5/2/2009 9:48:21 AM | message detail
DMC chars? It's just Dante and its mostly because of character design. Plus Leon isn't THAT much weaker than him.
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/2/2009 9:49:00 AM | message detail
Is anyone here seriously considering Persona 4 advancing? After seeing GTA and Street Fighter II bomb, and ToS do well...

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/2/2009 9:49:36 AM | message detail
I was thinking at least 40%. I mean, who in the hell is Felix? I doubt half the people who voted for him had any idea who he was, but he does have a big picture advantage over Guybrush.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
darkecofreak22 | Posted 5/2/2009 9:50:24 AM | message detail
I was fairly surprised to see MGS3 beat out both Halo 2 and WoW for the top spot, even though I love MGS3. I just figured the media frenzy and legions of fans that the two latter games had would ensure top standing, but once again, quality over quantity wins the day.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/2/2009 9:52:05 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #354
Is anyone here seriously considering Persona 4 advancing? After seeing GTA and Street Fighter II bomb, and ToS do well...


Not to mention that it's the only RPG there. I still think GTA is the favorite (Persona is a lot more niche than any of the RPGs we've seen do well so far), but my Oracle prediction for those three games will probably be close.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
voltch | Posted 5/2/2009 9:58:18 AM | message detail
TWEWY would have done a Tales...but nooo you had to go and put SFIV in when the number 1 game proved to be garbage,I mean replace the other sonic bombs with Sonic the hedghog,do you really think it'd have made a difference had Sonic been there instead of Sonic&Sonic3,i honestly believe 1 vs 1 TWEWY>SFIV.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 10:00:35 AM | message detail
I don't see Persona 4 being worth much, sure it won the PS2 poll, but that poll had less than 50k votes. It then went to come second last in the goty poll. At least ToS and Okami weren't totally destroyed in their goty matches.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/2/2009 10:01:19 AM | message detail
Did Devil May Cry even get a consolidated bracket push? I can't believe SFIV got in over it.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
voltch | Posted 5/2/2009 10:01:41 AM | message detail
what was the competition though?
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
RockMFR 5 | Posted 5/2/2009 10:02:36 AM | message detail
Halo needs to cut 21 votes per update to win. 29 is a nice start.
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voltch | Posted 5/2/2009 10:03:42 AM | message detail
DMC vs DMC3,wonder which one would be stronger,the original might have some kind of franchise vote as well as the gaming vote,but 3 was very well received,hmm where does 4 place?
Is there room for a 5th entry?
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 10:10:39 AM | message detail
Did Devil May Cry even get a consolidated bracket push? I can't believe SFIV got in over it.

Nope and there were a bunch of games that people could have chosen

Morrowind
Silent Hill 2
Paper Mario
Disgaea
Golden Sun (instead of Fire Emblem)
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/2/2009 10:47:48 AM | message detail
Looks like WoW will win at least each of the first 14 hours. Pretty darn good given Halo's trends.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/2/2009 10:51:31 AM | message detail
darkecofreak22
Posted 5/2/2009 12:50:24 PM
message detail
filter | quote
#356 I was fairly surprised to see MGS3 beat out both Halo 2 and WoW for the top spot, even though I love MGS3. I just figured the media frenzy and legions of fans that the two latter games had would ensure top standing, but once again, quality over quantity wins the day.


Fanboys that support games from a series, no matter how bloated, lame and flawed they were, really piss me off. MGS3 was an exercise in tacky "gameplay" elements coupled with lame characters and a go-nowhere plot.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/2/2009 10:53:20 AM | message detail
Beautiful sig
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/2/2009 11:16:01 AM | message detail
That would really surprise me. Yesterday's fourpack just screams "loser" to me.

I guess it's easier to rationalize that the other games suck than it is to give Tales of Symphonia some credit, I guess (or even Okami). I mean, we've already seen that the Halo series and GTA series aren't that strong, but I still think they'd be in what we'd term the midtier range. ToS and/or Oblivion beating WoW next round wouldn't surprise me. Halo isn't this site's kind of game, nor is GTA, nor is WoW. ToS is, which is why it can do decently despite having no reason to hang in there with games like San Andreas.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/2/2009 11:23:27 AM | message detail
one whose niche but ultra-devoted fanbase would carry it to successes in the 4way format that it could never see in 1v1 - has been largely disproven. The only case that jumps immediately to mind here is Monkey Island.

No, that's the fact that people in Europe seem to like Monkey Island and Mario 3 grabbed 75% of the vote. I definitely wouldn't attribute that 2nd place to "hardcore voters."

And I don't know why people keep bringing up the Sore Thumb Factor. Why in the world does it even exist? I don't know of an instance where it was definitely a factor. I think it was something that was invented before the first 4-ways contest (like people who argued for Ness beating Liquid, Alucard, and Zidane) and for some reason, it stuck.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 11:23:49 AM | message detail
So anyone think that Kingdom Hearts II would blow through this half of the division?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/2/2009 11:24:33 AM | message detail
I still think it's ridiculous to think that that fourpack is weak when we just saw Vice City upend MP and Morrowind do well. I would still take San Andreas to beat both Halo 2 and Okami with a bit of room to spare.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/2/2009 11:25:02 AM | message detail
After seeing KH in action, KHII probably would.

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ZFS | Posted 5/2/2009 11:25:53 AM | message detail
No doubt about that. KHII would probably beat this group worse than MGS3, yesterday's group would have been an easy win for it, too.

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Jessica's whip skills improve!
She becomes a whippersnapper!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/2/2009 11:26:23 AM | message detail
Right now, I think KHII would have an easy time with everything but Snake Eater, which could even be stronger than the original Kingdom Hearts.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 11:27:21 AM | message detail
And I don't know why people keep bringing up the Sore Thumb Factor. Why in the world does it even exist? I don't know of an instance where it was definitely a factor

Basically it's a much weaker version of LFF, I'm not too sure if being the odd ball has caused any game/character to win where they should have lost.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/2/2009 11:30:41 AM | message detail
One of the most prominent examples (and my personal favorite) was Big Boss/Kirby. Boss just obliterated that poll so badly, and I think it was largely in part to how starkly he stood out compared to his colorful trio of opponents. Boss scored 56.6% on Kirby in that match. If you keep his awesome picture, remove Lucas and Jinjo, and make it a traditional 1v1, I wouldn't blink an eye if Kirby won (and won with room to spare).
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 11:36:40 AM | message detail
One of the most prominent examples (and my personal favorite) was Big Boss/Kirby. Boss just obliterated that poll so badly, and I think it was largely in part to how starkly he stood out compared to his colorful trio of opponents. Boss scored 56.6% on Kirby in that match. If you keep his awesome picture, remove Lucas and Jinjo, and make it a traditional 1v1, I wouldn't blink an eye if Kirby won (and won with room to spare).

Big Boss scored 48% in that match, I don't see any of those voters changing their minds when removing Jinjo and Lucas. Big Boss only needs 2% of that 15% to win and I don't believe that the overlap between Kirby, Lucas and Jinjo is big enough to prevent Big Boss from getting that 2%
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
redrocket | Posted 5/2/2009 11:37:16 AM | message detail
Kirby's entire run last year was Sore Thumb Factor.

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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/2/2009 11:37:45 AM | message detail
I don't know how you can blame that on STF though. That's just Big Boss being a beast. Honestly, he probably wins the second round match easily if not for Raiden. You can blame whatever difference left between he and Kirby on the fact that Lucas and Jinjo may have been LFFing Kirby a bit.

I would still take San Andreas to beat both Halo 2 and Okami with a bit of room to spare.

...I don't know if I'd go quite that far. GTA III still lost cleanly to Halo, and I'm not sure what the difference between SA and GTA III and Halo and Halo 2 is.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/2/2009 11:39:41 AM | message detail
I think SA is equal to or slightly above Vice City, while Halo 2 is a little below Halo...so yeah.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/2/2009 11:40:04 AM | message detail
Kirby's entire run last year was Sore Thumb Factor.

I don't believe this either. Kirby probably had a bandwagon effect more than anything else, especially when he got to Sonic.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 11:42:39 AM | message detail
Kirby's entire run last year was Sore Thumb Factor.

Not really Big Boss probably would have won if it wasn't for Raiden, though Master Chief looking weaker compare to Kirby in round 3 is a bit weird. By round four Kirby started to have L-Block like trends.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
Meeks54 | Posted 5/2/2009 11:45:26 AM | message detail
Kirby and Metal Gears entire run last year was illicit "rallies" not sore thumb factor. It just happened they were continually up against each other. Had they actually been in separate matches (except for Link/Cloud/Snake/Crono, because no one cared about the rallying there, anti Link and would make love to Solid Snake B8 bias and all) people would have started to scream about their off the wall trends, and the fact they both went insane on stronger competition, kinda like Mini L Blocks, (and we all know it cheated.)


As the poster above me actually pointed out about L Block trends.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 5/2/2009 11:55:04 AM | message detail
I'm glad Okami and MGS3 are doin so well
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/2/2009 11:56:29 AM | message detail
Yeah, it's pretty obvious to see when a character has a bandwagon going for him because he has a ridiculous board vote and Power Hour and then seems to drop for the rest of the match.

Yesterday's chart:

Time | God of War | GTA: SA | Symphonia | Oblivion | Demographic
EBV | 24.63% | 22.38% | 28.82% | 24.18% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 24.81% | 22.18% | 27.35% | 25.67% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 24.87% | 24.29% | 24.56% | 26.28% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 24.85% | 24.37% | 23.77% | 27.00% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 25.42% | 23.33% | 24.04% | 27.21% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 24.21% | 22.99% | 25.55% | 27.25% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 25.25% | 23.09% | 26.15% | 25.51% | (22:00-24:00)

Oblivion seems to be one of those games that gradually gets better as the match goes along, though nothing major, except for the drop off during the second night vote (which can probably be explained by ToS/GoW wackiness). Tales of Symphonia has a great board vote and Power Hour. The morning vote was its worst time, but the difference isn't drastic. GoW was pretty consistent throughout, but its worst time was actually the ASV, kinad confusing. San Andreas follows the trend of basically every GTA game we've seen so far (Bad board vote and Power Hour, improved until ASV, where it drops off).

Yesterday's stats:

The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion – 50.00%
Tales of Symphonia – 48.27%
God of War – 48.08%
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas – 46.62%
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/2/2009 11:59:06 AM | message detail
By the way, what do you guys think of MGS3's performance? I think it's doing pretty well. It's got about the percentage I expected, but it's beating the competition by more than I thought (Woo, Halo 2 overestimation). I don't know if it solves the MGS2 vs. MGS3 debate yet, but I think this is better than what MGS2 did at least.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/2/2009 11:59:53 AM | message detail
This is about what I expected from MGS3, which was being stronger than MGS2 but not that much stronger.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/2/2009 12:01:13 PM | message detail
GoW =/= Kratos
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: MGS3 > WoW - Points: 70/100 Vote: MGS3
ZFS | Posted 5/2/2009 12:26:10 PM | message detail
Not the best performance from MGS3, I don't think. These is some weak competition -- it's only 10% above World of Warcraft -- but I guess it's hitting most people's expectations. Not the kinda performance that screams Metal Gear dominance, though. All three so far have been pretty tame, if not a little disappointing.

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Jessica's whip skills improve!
She becomes a whippersnapper!
voltch | Posted 5/2/2009 12:35:31 PM | message detail
hehey,MGS3 was supposed to be one of the weaker ones,but does anyone esle get that sinking feeling that the MGS series is one where ALL the games are pretty close to each other in strength?

It makes kinda sense that they're all within each other's range,but at the same time while none of them is weak none are ahead of the field like the outstandingly powerful mario/FF/zelda games.

did this remark seem pertinent oh no it didn't i'm just rambling on,but hehey it's a weekend and I'm bloated.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/2/2009 12:41:00 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #389
Not the best performance from MGS3, I don't think. These is some weak competition -- it's only 10% above World of Warcraft -- but I guess it's hitting most people's expectations. Not the kinda performance that screams Metal Gear dominance, though. All three so far have been pretty tame, if not a little disappointing.


I'm not sure about that. We have no idea how this trio stacks up to the one Kingdom Hearts faced. If Halo 2 + WoW + Okami is stronger than Vice City + Prime + Paper Mario, then MGS3 is in contention with KH as the PS2's second strongest title. I don't think it's a stretch to call today's trio stronger, either. It's certainly more independent, and it doesn't appear to have a game as weak as Paper Mario.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/2/2009 12:41:40 PM | message detail
MGS3 is impressing me. I expected 32-33%
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ZFS | Posted 5/2/2009 12:44:42 PM | message detail
I'm not sure there's a real difference between that group and this group, though I'd side with Vice City and Prime before I would World of Warcraft and Halo 2 of all things. KH's performance has looked less impressive with the more matches we see, but I'd feel good about taking it over MGS3.

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Jessica's whip skills improve!
She becomes a whippersnapper!
transience | Posted 5/2/2009 12:44:55 PM | message detail
aww yeah Okami took the lead for a few seconds

I know most people will take that opportunity to say lol Halo 2, but Okami's not that weak.
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xyzzy
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/2/2009 12:49:36 PM | message detail
Few seconds more like few hours.
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
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voltch | Posted 5/2/2009 12:51:34 PM | message detail
nah,MGS3 would beat KH due to the match pics being horribly biased again.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
transience | Posted 5/2/2009 12:52:43 PM | message detail
I'm not too convinced on KH2. I think most people assume it's the same as KH1, but I think it'd be a bit weaker.

we'll see, I guess. it has absolutely no excuse with those games.
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xyzzy
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ZFS | Posted 5/2/2009 12:55:44 PM | message detail
I think it'll be a bit stronger, if anything. The one I'm watching for is Resident Evil 4 -- always doubted this game's strength. We'll see how it does.

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Jessica's whip skills improve!
She becomes a whippersnapper!
voltch | Posted 5/2/2009 12:56:54 PM | message detail
wait,we're going from RE4 one of the games people sided with from anything between quarter to the finals,to KHII disappoints if it doesn't win?

or if KHII doesn't place,surely RE5 will give RE4 a big boost due to how similar they are and because it's a sort of next gen RE game.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/2/2009 12:57:04 PM | message detail
KHII should be a little weaker than the first. It doesn't get the universal love the first does among the KH fanbase - I've seen a lot of people saying it was far inferior to the original.

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