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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 699

Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/2/2009 4:22:38 AM | message detail
I need a weapon
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/2/2009 4:24:09 AM | message detail
Ok Chief, no cut in the next 4 updates and I'm officially 0% chancing you
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/2/2009 4:25:38 AM | message detail
Poor Halo

Great theme, sucky series.
well 1 was ok.
voltch | Posted 5/2/2009 4:28:44 AM | message detail
if MGS3 is weaker than MGS then oh dear,G/S/C>Halo 2?
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
Gaddswell | Posted 5/2/2009 4:30:45 AM | message detail
11 votes to go until Okami leads!
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greatone10 | Posted 5/2/2009 4:34:08 AM | message detail
One vote...

Wow, Halo 2.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/2/2009 4:36:57 AM | message detail
ok what the hell Chief
I didnt peg you losing to Ammy here.

I knew NEKKID Snake and Arthas were, but ammy?

she wasnt even in human ecchi form.
Gaddswell | Posted 5/2/2009 4:38:36 AM | message detail
argh it's a tie
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/2/2009 4:40:57 AM | message detail
Oh well there you go.

Chief went "nooooooooooooooo"
Gaddswell | Posted 5/2/2009 4:44:02 AM | message detail
And there we go!

Okami in 3rd.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/2/2009 4:44:22 AM | message detail
Halo not only fails to cut in the 4 updates but then loses the lead to Okami on the 4th

Halo 2 gets the stamp of failure
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Smurf Alt | Posted 5/2/2009 4:45:41 AM | message detail
don't be silly, as lopen, tranny and karma already stated halo 2 will comfortably come back from 2000 votes, a weekend day vote and a 4-way format to grab second. don't let common sense blind your judgment. ^_~
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 4:51:04 AM | message detail
Woke up just in time to see Okami take the lead over Halo 2.

Also WoW is looking really good at winnng.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
paulg235 | Posted 5/2/2009 5:04:23 AM | message detail
So... Halo 3 to lose against Left 4 Dead/Mass Effect?
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Gaddswell | Posted 5/2/2009 5:32:25 AM | message detail

From: Smurf Alt | #262
don't be silly, as lopen, tranny and karma already stated halo 2 will comfortably come back from 2000 votes, a weekend day vote and a 4-way format to grab second. don't let common sense blind your judgment. ^_~


Well, the fact that it's a weekend day vote doesn't really change things. All the votes will come in, one way or another. In the weekend, the day vote's just more spread out and diluted. It's still there - just not as obvious and easy to see since it doesn't come in all at once.

2100 votes is a tall task though. Halo probably doesn't come back here.
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Smurf Alt | Posted 5/2/2009 5:38:11 AM | message detail
The day vote is diluted into the night vote as well. If ever look at the votals approaching morning they're a lot higher on a weekend.
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.
ZFS | Posted 5/2/2009 5:49:43 AM | message detail
lol Halo

It'll still finish in third, but I doubt it comes back nearly enough to make a run for second.

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voltch | Posted 5/2/2009 5:57:07 AM | message detail
Halo..an you were doing so well before 3 came out...actually how come Halo wars has been selling so well?
Isn't it crushing killzone 2?at any rate you'd have thought a seller like that would have refreshed the game in people's minds.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455
charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 6:06:14 AM | message detail
Wake up kiddies, try to make this interesting.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
red sox 777 | Posted 5/2/2009 6:12:13 AM | message detail
The night vote is really long and deep on weekends, and the day vote doesn't get going for a while. Especially Halo's day vote. MC didn't start cutting Donkey Kong or Kirby until around noon. It has started going up in percentage already though, while WoW has started falling there.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 6:28:54 AM | message detail
Halo 2 takes back the lead, WoW still marching along.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
red sox 777 | Posted 5/2/2009 6:33:56 AM | message detail
World of Warcraft by the hour against Halo 2:

1:00 | 52.31%
2:00 | 52.42%
3:00 | 56.30%
4:00 | 57.70%
5:00 | 60.27%
6:00 | 57.65%
7:00 | 62.88%
8:00 | 58.09%
9:00 | 56.65%

WoW's percentage against Halo 2 so far this hour: 52.81%
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/2/2009 6:50:29 AM | message detail
I figured WoW would have a much longer time to pad its lead. It might even win the next hour, and we're in full day vote mode now, even for a weekend.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/2/2009 6:54:57 AM | message detail
Halo's day vote is frustrating slow to get started though on weekends. It's still not a morning game and it compensates with an excellent SNV. But yeah, it needs around 54% of the remaining votes between itself and World of Warcraft to come back, something which increasingly looks like a remote possibility.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/2/2009 7:00:05 AM | message detail
Halo 2 has about an hour to do something before this is over.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/2/2009 7:07:50 AM | message detail
Okami actually took the lead over Halo 2 at some point? Haha.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/2/2009 7:25:09 AM | message detail
This does make Diablo look better to repeat in Round 2, because there's nothing here that really hurts Halo unfairly. Heck, the other two options are both single-player and not nearly as casual as Melee, which I''m still expecting to steal some of Halo's casual support.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/2/2009 7:26:50 AM | message detail
Let's see.....DK peaked against Chief at 11 AM and had been gaining steadily up to that point. Kirby peaked against Chief in R2 last year at 1:30, and he was actually tearing MC apart in the morning: he gained around 550 votes from 9 to 10, and another 400 or so from 10 to 11. Chief still managed to cut 800 votes from him in the end. So this isn't quite over yet, even if it's pretty close.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/2/2009 7:28:51 AM | message detail
I'll believe that Halo can come back from what probably ends up being a 3000 vote deficit when I see it.

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/2/2009 7:30:34 AM | message detail
If this lead gets to 3000 it would be over. If Halo doesn't cut next hour (11-12), I'd also call this over.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/2/2009 7:30:43 AM | message detail
The fact that WoW's been increasing percentage for the past hour is a really bad sign. By this time last year, Chief was already cutting Big Boss like crazy and on the verge of overtaking him, while he hasn't even made a move yet here.

WoW has just pushed the lead over 2500. It's hard to give Chief any sort of shot when we're seeing more of these 15-20 vote WoW gains than we're seeing stalls.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/2/2009 7:33:35 AM | message detail
Big Boss.....Oh, I forgot he led Chief for a few hours. That means Kirby didn't really gain 550 on Chief from 9 to 10, he gained that on Big Boss, and only 200 or so on Chief. That makes things look a lot worse for Halo 2.
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Smurf Alt | Posted 5/2/2009 7:34:03 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #280
If this lead gets to 3000 it would be over. If Halo doesn't cut next hour (11-12), I'd also call this over.


>_< my god do you people not understand how voting trends work at all?

Halo made its comeback, it came back to overtake Okami, it may not ever even win an hour in this poll it's that much in over its head, let alone rip 3000 votes back.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/2/2009 7:37:09 AM | message detail
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Denzokuken | Posted 5/2/2009 7:39:06 AM | message detail
Sadly even in the outside possibility that Halo 2 does run it close, WoW will just rally to win anyway.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/2/2009 7:39:53 AM | message detail
There you go. Halo gets a cut. These will probably be the pattern and not the exception within a couple of hours, but I doubt Halo can actually come all the way back here. It should make some big gains this afternoon nonetheless and has a decent chance of getting the lead under 1000.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/2/2009 7:46:33 AM | message detail
And WoW just took back the cut lol
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creativename | Posted 5/2/2009 7:46:54 AM | message detail
Halo 2 was losing to Okami? Yeesh. Even when you expect Halo to dismally fail, it somehow finds a way to fail even worse than you thought.

And it's as I was saying - people were being very premature on assuming WoW would advance over Oblivion. Or Tales for that matter - Tales might have a mini-bandwagon next round. I wouldn't be surprised to see WoW finish behind both next round.
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Smurf Alt | Posted 5/2/2009 7:49:22 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #286
There you go. Halo gets a cut. These will probably be the pattern and not the exception within a couple of hours, but I doubt Halo can actually come all the way back here. It should make some big gains this afternoon nonetheless and has a decent chance of getting the lead under 1000.


It's not even stalling just random cuts before it loses it all again. It's gained over half a percent in the last hour and a bit. This is its comeback and it involves losing further votes to WoW. Just because Halo is great with the day vote doesn't mean its going to go from 40% on WoW in updates to tripling it like some people here seem to think.
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60% of the time he's awesome every time.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/2/2009 7:53:19 AM | message detail
And yeah, unless something crazy happens, WoW has this. There is no way it should give up 2500 votes when Halo still can't cut for an hour, or even get close.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/2/2009 7:54:20 AM | message detail
It's going to go from getting 47-48% on WoW now to maybe 53%ish in the afternoon, not 40% to 75%.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/2/2009 7:54:22 AM | message detail
Plus from what I'm seeing, WoWs % seems pretty static. Might be a balanced game, so shouldn't completly die.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/2/2009 7:55:24 AM | message detail
Next round should be interesting. Based on Okami, I would takes Tales or Oblivion to be doing about what WoW is doing here.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/2/2009 7:56:11 AM | message detail
And it's as I was saying - people were being very premature on assuming WoW would advance over Oblivion. Or Tales for that matter - Tales might have a mini-bandwagon next round. I wouldn't be surprised to see WoW finish behind both next round.

That would really surprise me. Yesterday's fourpack just screams "loser" to me. With three RPGs and no other Sony games sharing the poll, MGS3 might make a run at 40%. In that case, WoW should only need to keep its head above 20% to survive, and that's looking very likely based on its current performance. I'd easily take WoW's 23% (assuming it dips to that by the end) against this competition over Symphonia and Oblivion's 25-26% against each other.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/2/2009 7:56:23 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #293
Next round should be interesting. Based on Okami, I would takes Tales or Oblivion to be doing about what WoW is doing here.


Right now WoW is in no danger of losing, so I doubt theres many rallies going on. If you put it against those and its fighting for its life, I guarantee rallies will be more severe though.
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Master Moltar | Posted 5/2/2009 7:59:12 AM | message detail
Woo, Okami in third for a while! Still doing pretty decent too.

Blah, Halo's going to cut off votes, but it isn't going to complete the comeback. At least this confirms that WoW sucks, just Halo 2 sucks more. WoW's not even a lock for Round 2, and definitely dead in Round 3. That's all I needed to see.
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Moltar Status: ahh, there you are
Match 26 - Bracket: MGS3 > Halo 2 - Vote: MGS3 (69/100)
Smurf Alt | Posted 5/2/2009 7:59:37 AM | message detail
What I'm saying is anyone contest analyzer worth their salt should be able to realize that when it's picking up only 40% consistently during the morning of a weekend match it's at no point going to be winning updates by a large enough majority to knock 1000's of votes off. Even for a day vote king going 50-50 through the day with that kind of morning would be a massive shift.

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60% of the time he's awesome every time.
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/2/2009 8:00:45 AM | message detail
That would really surprise me. Yesterday's fourpack just screams "loser" to me.

Let's stop with this. The four-pack consisted of the most popular action game on this site, a GotY winner, a 6-million seller that was already projected to do great based on Morrowind, and a cult RPG that just happened to be stronger than we expected.

That four-pack wasn't that strong, but weak? No.

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/2/2009 8:00:56 AM | message detail
1:00 | 52.31%
2:00 | 52.42%
3:00 | 56.30%
4:00 | 57.70%
5:00 | 60.27%
6:00 | 57.65%
7:00 | 62.88%
8:00 | 58.09%
9:00 | 56.65%
10:00 | 53.00%
11:00 | 51.96%
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Smurf Alt | Posted 5/2/2009 8:01:01 AM | message detail
I could see Oblivion getting buried next round with WoW there, Tales again having the stand out factor so probably WoW v Tales for 2nd.
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.