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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 699

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/1/2009 8:37:52 PM | message detail
What a thrill...

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.

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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
XxSoulxX | Posted 5/1/2009 8:38:30 PM | message detail
Boring matches are boring
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/1/2009 8:39:08 PM | message detail
Calling to the Night>Snake Eater

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PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/1/2009 8:39:47 PM | message detail
Well ToS certainly made that match interesting to say the least.....
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
Gaddswell | Posted 5/1/2009 9:05:07 PM | message detail
Tales of Symphonia 10.25% / 5.85%

16%, eh?

Where does that place on the overall lowest prediction percentage list?
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 9:06:34 PM | message detail
WoW to sky rocket from here. Likely 26-27%
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/1/2009 9:06:53 PM | message detail
Wonder who got the board vote, Halo 2 or WoW, can't wait to see the update.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/1/2009 9:07:31 PM | message detail
Neither did.

Both Halo 2 and WoW are far too "casual" for Board 8's "indie cred".
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Gaddswell | Posted 5/1/2009 9:07:59 PM | message detail
Okami probably did.
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/1/2009 9:08:00 PM | message detail
MGS3 is also better than both just sayin
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/1/2009 9:08:17 PM | message detail
MGS3 got the board vote.
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Today's prediction: Snake Eater 31.08% - World of Warcrap 27.27% - Halo 2 25.14% - Okami 16.51%
Status:
charmander6000 | Posted 5/1/2009 9:08:21 PM | message detail
Neither did.

Both Halo 2 and WoW are far too "casual" for Board 8's "indie cred".


One had to do better or else we're in for a crazy match.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
transience | Posted 5/1/2009 9:08:43 PM | message detail
time for Okami
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/1/2009 9:08:55 PM | message detail
And hey, what's up with the "Snake Eater" omission? Don't get stingy with the titles now, Admin.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/1/2009 9:09:05 PM | message detail
Halo had a decent board vote, and WoW by far had the worst start here. Seems almost certain it'll be the one rising further.
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FastFalcon and Solid Snake snapped my neck in the guru contest.
BDawg | Posted 5/1/2009 9:09:17 PM | message detail
Apparently I count as "everyone" cause I got jack for that match too.
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Should I start running now?
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/1/2009 9:09:24 PM | message detail
Okami with a surprise 30% update here we go come on
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Master Moltar | Posted 5/1/2009 9:10:16 PM | message detail
halowned
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Moltar Status: ahh, there you are
Match 26 - Bracket: MGS3 > Halo 2 - Vote: MGS3 (69/100)
Majin Lou | Posted 5/1/2009 9:10:21 PM | message detail
Nice tie, there.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 9:10:23 PM | message detail
heh halo doesnt wanna give up
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/1/2009 9:10:24 PM | message detail
WHOAAAAA
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
ZFS | Posted 5/1/2009 9:10:27 PM | message detail
Hey there Halo

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Enough expository banter! Now we fight like men! And ladies! And ladies who dress like men!
Gaddswell | Posted 5/1/2009 9:10:33 PM | message detail
Haha, TIED
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
red sox 777 | Posted 5/1/2009 9:10:39 PM | message detail
And we're tied!
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/1/2009 9:10:39 PM | message detail
Awesome match is awesome
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
transience | Posted 5/1/2009 9:10:40 PM | message detail
World of Warcraft sucks confirmed

it'll probably take this match but it's gonna need some bandwagoning to survive round 3. this is pretty unimpressive so far.
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/1/2009 9:10:43 PM | message detail
Okami is doing surprisingly well.

Man, if only we'd known how these obscure games would perform beforehand!

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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/1/2009 9:10:53 PM | message detail
Well hi there Halo
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/1/2009 9:11:01 PM | message detail
Well that was surprising. Looks like we'll have a fun match afterall.
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FastFalcon and Solid Snake snapped my neck in the guru contest.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/1/2009 9:12:01 PM | message detail
Still feeling pretty good. I expected a significant deficit ten minutes in.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/1/2009 9:12:06 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
General_Zimbad | Posted 5/1/2009 9:12:10 PM | message detail
Tales of Symphonia 10.25% / 5.85%

^ thats where I belong
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/1/2009 9:12:17 PM | message detail
charmander6000
Posted 5/2/2009 12:08:21 AM
message detail Neither did.

Both Halo 2 and WoW are far too "casual" for Board 8's "indie cred".

One had to do better or else we're in for a crazy match.


You shouldn't have said anything.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
charmander6000 | Posted 5/1/2009 9:12:31 PM | message detail
Told you Halo 2 had a worse board vote than WoW. Now keep increasing that lead.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
theawesomestevr | Posted 5/1/2009 9:13:01 PM | message detail
And hey, what's up with the "Snake Eater" omission? Don't get stingy with the titles now, Admin.


Because Subsistence>>>>>>>>>>Snake Eater.

Exactly 9 greater thans better.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/1/2009 9:13:07 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato
Posted 5/2/2009 12:10:43 AM
message detail Okami is doing surprisingly well.

Man, if only we'd known how these obscure games would perform beforehand!


Or, like yesterday, these games are rubbish.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
charmander6000 | Posted 5/1/2009 9:13:12 PM | message detail
I'm assuming Albion has gone rallying?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/1/2009 9:13:13 PM | message detail
WoW needs to build a good lead overnight to survive Halo's ASV.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/1/2009 9:13:25 PM | message detail
Okami is doing surprisingly well.

Man, if only we'd known how these obscure games would perform beforehand!


Obscure games/characters haven't done this well since 2004! Hooray for the Deboost!
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/1/2009 9:13:52 PM | message detail
WoW needs to build a good lead overnight to survive Halo's ASV.

I heard the ASV is stronger on Saturdays.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
Gaddswell | Posted 5/1/2009 9:14:00 PM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #038
WoW needs to build a good lead overnight to survive Halo's ASV.


Weekend match. >_>
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 9:14:23 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3259&num=4

check arthas first couple updates. went down at 12:10, then went crazy
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/1/2009 9:15:19 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3259&num=4

check arthas first couple updates. went down at 12:10, then went crazy


0_o I didn't remember it was that abusive
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Today's prediction: Snake Eater 31.08% - World of Warcrap 27.27% - Halo 2 25.14% - Okami 16.51%
Status:
charmander6000 | Posted 5/1/2009 9:15:32 PM | message detail
WoW with the lead.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/1/2009 9:15:45 PM | message detail
and there it starts
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Today's prediction: Snake Eater 31.08% - World of Warcrap 27.27% - Halo 2 25.14% - Okami 16.51%
Status:
red sox 777 | Posted 5/1/2009 9:15:58 PM | message detail
Yeah, this being Saturday makes things much better for WoW than if it were a weekend. There isn't an ASV, but generally the day vote isn't just spread out over more hours- it's actually weaker.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 9:16:47 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #046
Yeah, this being Saturday makes things much better for WoW than if it were a weekend. There isn't an ASV, but generally the day vote isn't just spread out over more hours- it's actually weaker.


Not to mention WoW does best in Europe, and Halo sucks in Europe. It'll get a BIG lead then.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/1/2009 9:16:57 PM | message detail
Yeah, this being Saturday makes things much better for WoW than if it were a weekend. There isn't an ASV, but generally the day vote isn't just spread out over more hours- it's actually weaker.

The voters all vote eventually, so overall there's no effect.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > Halo 2 Points: 71/100
red sox 777 | Posted 5/1/2009 9:17:38 PM | message detail
No, what I'm saying is the early vote is more favorable to Halo on weekends than on weekdays, so the day vote is weaker.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
BlitzKing900 | Posted 5/1/2009 9:17:41 PM | message detail
How the hell did tos and oblivion beat God Of war and San Andreas? they are possibly the best couple of ps2 games out there, shows how weak the users of gamefaqs are.
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