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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 698

irriadin | Posted 5/1/2009 8:09:35 AM | message detail
If I get full points for this match, I'm almost sure to make the leaderboard. That being said, God of War > Oblivion doesn't look too probable at the moment, although it is in the realm of possibility.
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"I do read sometimes." Mat Cauthon, The Wheel of Time.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 8:10:12 AM | message detail
If Oblivion is below average ASV I can see it happening, but with it being a top selling 360 game, I don't see that being likely.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/1/2009 8:11:02 AM | message detail
It's never fun to get burned by the scoring system.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
MnMZero | Posted 5/1/2009 8:15:11 AM | message detail

It's never fun to get burned by the scoring system.


Yep, as all the Link > Cloud takers know from '07...
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
charmander6000 | Posted 5/1/2009 8:22:34 AM | message detail
Wow look at that last update.

24.60%
24.60%
25.28%
25.51%

Closest to 25/25/25/25 we're going to get?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: GTA: SA > GoW Points: 71/96
Master Moltar | Posted 5/1/2009 8:48:32 AM | message detail
Like my boobs could fill out that top!

...

whoops wrong tales game

anyway sucks to see Tales couldn't hold on to the lead longer than 3 hours, but that's still better than anyone expected from it. Now I'm kinda hoping this result sticks because GoW in second gets me 2 points!

The morning vote was kinda weird...wonder if that means anything for the ASV

As for the strength of the 3 GTA games, they're all look to be pretty much equal. No point in getting too wrapped up in arguing over which is stronger.
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Moltar Status: ahh, there you are
Match 25 - Bracket: GTA:SA > GoW - Vote: ToS (69/96)
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 8:49:18 AM | message detail
Like my boobs could fill out that top!

I was really surprised when I heard Estelle say that o.O
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
Master Moltar | Posted 5/1/2009 8:59:24 AM | message detail
"They're bouncing..."

What are you looking at?

"I wish I could bounce..."

easily estelle's best quotes
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Moltar Status: ahh, there you are
Match 25 - Bracket: GTA:SA > GoW - Vote: ToS (69/96)
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/1/2009 9:00:55 AM | message detail
"It'll be a hundred years before you can beat me!"
"Because you've lived a lot longer, right?"
"...Not exactly."
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
TheOceIot | Posted 5/1/2009 9:05:50 AM | message detail
aww yeah Oblivion
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Currently Playing: Deus Ex, Suikoden Tierkreis, GTA: Chinatown Wars
charmander6000 | Posted 5/1/2009 9:09:51 AM | message detail
San Andreas took first in that update...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: GTA: SA > GoW Points: 71/96
Lucid Faia | Posted 5/1/2009 10:33:49 AM | message detail
"I was born 87 years ago. For 65 years I've ruled as Tamriel's Emperor. But for all these years I've never been the ruler of my own dreams. I have seen the Gates of Oblivion, beyond which no waking eye may see. Behold, in darkness, a doom sweeps the land. This is the 27th of Last Seed; the Year of Akatosh 433. These are the closing days of the 3rd Era, and the final hours of my life."

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The Ohio State Buckeyes
2005-2008 Big Ten Champions!
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/1/2009 10:41:32 AM | message detail
Wow, I'm going to get ONE point from this match. Aw well.

Methinks Super Mario Kart stands the most chance of making it out of round 2 with A Link to the Past. I'm wondering whether I should vote for Super Metroid just out of pity. Not only with Super Metroid get burned with SFF, Super Mario Kart should be able to avoid SFF, as it sold much better than A Link to the Past. Here are my round 2 predictions currently

Tetris > Mega Man 2 (unfortunately I have them reversed in my bracket)
The Legend of Zelda > Super Mario Bros. (my vote goes to Mario)
Super Mario Bros. 3 > Street Fighter II (still think Sonic will get SFFd)
Super Mario World > Final Fantasy IV (FF4 > FF1)
Zelda: A Link to the Past > Super Mario Kart (god I chose Super Metroid to advance in my bracket)
Final Fantasy VI > Sonic the Hedgehog 2
Final Fantasy VII > GoldenEye (voting for James Bond here)
Chrono Trigger > Super Mario 64
Metal Gear Solid > Pokemon Red/Blue (god I had Final Fantasy Tactics advancing in my bracket)
Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Final Fantasy VIII (I had StarCraft advancing in my bracket)
Final Fantasy X > Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (sucks for those who had Metroid Prime here)
Halo > Super Smash Bros. Melee (trusting my bracket)
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/1/2009 10:44:08 AM | message detail
And here are the best selling SNES games; this could explain some stuff.

http://www.listal.com/list/bestselling-snes-games
irriadin | Posted 5/1/2009 10:45:14 AM | message detail
I banked heavily on Blizzard this contest. Probably going to be my undoing. I've got Ocarina > Starcraft next round. That's looking very shaky, even accounting for some good Final Fantasy SFF.
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"I do read sometimes." Mat Cauthon, The Wheel of Time.
eaglesarebeasts | Posted 5/1/2009 10:45:37 AM | message detail
Halo > Super Smash Bros. Melee (trusting my bracket)

0_0
RPGGamer0 | Posted 5/1/2009 10:47:20 AM | message detail
ToS can still come back!


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Metal Gear Solid OOOOOWWWWNS!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/1/2009 11:25:24 AM | message detail
Yup it would take a massive flop for WoW to miss round 3 now.

World of Warcraft needs to get to round 2 before we start talking about round 3. It's not a given it advances tomorrow, folks.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 5/1/2009 11:26:28 AM | message detail
Speaking of WoW are the forums hyping for the match?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: GTA: SA > GoW Points: 71/96
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/1/2009 11:28:11 AM | message detail
Let's not even start getting into that. It's going to be bad enough tomorrow.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
transience | Posted 5/1/2009 11:29:43 AM | message detail
yeah Oblivion should be safe here. great school vote.

wonder if GTA can pass TOS, that'd be something.
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xyzzy
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/1/2009 11:30:06 AM | message detail
*just saw the poll for the very first time today*

What...the...****....

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74/96 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: God of War > GTA: San Andreas | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/1/2009 11:36:54 AM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Disgaea | F. Emblem | SSBM | LOZ: TWW | Demographic
EBV | 15.46% | 9.52% | 51.61% | 23.41% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 15.08% | 10.87% | 49.26% | 24.79% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 17.69% | 10.76% | 45.28% | 26.27% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 15.81% | 11.29% | 45.75% | 27.16% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 16.01% | 10.36% | 46.96% | 26.67% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 13.05% | 11.03% | 51.71% | 24.21% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 14.66% | 11.49% | 51.00% | 22.84% | (22:00-24:00)

That Melee ASV is somethin', isn't it? Great board vote and Power Hour, too. SSBM begins and finishes at around the same level, but everything in between is noticeably lower. Wind Waker with a bad board vote and Power. Zelda, as usual, does its best work in the morning, but it had a pretty bad ASV and a horrible second night vote. Disgaea, as expected, is a strong night vote game but a bad ASV game. Fire Emblem did its best work in the morning and the ASV, which seemed to carry through to the rest of the match anyway.

Yesterday's stats:

Super Smash Bros. Melee – 50.00%
The Wind Waker – 34.36%
Disgaea – 23.75%
Fire Emblem – 18.28%
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/1/2009 11:40:48 AM | message detail
Also, the first night vote demographic in this match may be the closest we ever get to a 25/25/25/25 split. Oblivion had 26.28%, Symphonia had 24.56%, San Andreas had 24.29%, and GoW had 24.87%. Pretty crazy stuff there. The Diablo/GTAIII/Halo/KOTOR match had some close spreads, but nothing like this.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/1/2009 11:44:26 AM | message detail
Looks like Oblivion is the game going up with the ASV right now.

Come on, GoW! Do something completely inexplicable and lose the ASV to ToS!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/1/2009 11:52:03 AM | message detail
The ASV is ToS' best time, and it's the sole Ninty representative, and GoW has other casual games to deal with, so...

what

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/1/2009 11:53:31 AM | message detail
Actually, I was just thinking, IF WoW does advance tomorrow, would Oblivion's presence be enough to hinder them both so that GoW (or ToS...!) advance?
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/1/2009 11:54:16 AM | message detail
WoW is an entirely different genre from Oblivion.

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The Mana Sword | Posted 5/1/2009 11:54:51 AM | message detail
More like Oblivion takes first next round who wants sum.
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Kleenex...at work!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 11:55:44 AM | message detail
Its an easy explanation for ToS still falling..

It was over its head last night, so it has room to fall all day at its lower, more expected strength.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/1/2009 11:56:34 AM | message detail
And really, the trends so far should point to ToS going head-to-head with GoW in the ASV. ToS won the Power Hour, went pretty much even with the morning, and lost the dead hours. That screams "Gonna win the ASV".

Just saying!

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 12:03:29 PM | message detail
so apparently ToS is cutting GoW during the beginning of the ASV while Oblivion runs wild

woo weird trends
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
transience | Posted 5/1/2009 12:03:31 PM | message detail
Oblivion would overlap with Warcraft more than almost any other game in the bracket. based on what we're seeing today, though, it wouldn't really take much to beat these guys.
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xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg
RPGuy96 | Posted 5/1/2009 12:04:07 PM | message detail
Man, it would be hilarious if Symphonia actually came back here. It only needs 3.5 votes / 5 minutes, and it just got cuts of 7 and 10!

Lloyd teased us against HK, so I'm going to need to see a bit more before saying anything, but...
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Mustache...and Green...
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/1/2009 12:05:02 PM | message detail
Oblivion would overlap with Warcraft more than almost any other game in the bracket. based on what we're seeing today, though,

Wait, what? Why do you think this?

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
transience | Posted 5/1/2009 12:05:15 PM | message detail
these games are all unproven. TOS coming back wouldn't be that surprising.

three RPGs and MGS3 next round hell yeah
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
transience | Posted 5/1/2009 12:06:29 PM | message detail
Wait, what? Why do you think this?

they're both 'wrpgs'. one's an MMO but if you think MMO players only play MMOs, you're wrong. that's not to say it'd be super significant, but it'd be closer to that independent fanbase than some FF title.
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xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg
transience | Posted 5/1/2009 12:07:30 PM | message detail
ha, GOW might just lose this.
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 12:08:01 PM | message detail
mmorpg and wrpgs are completly different genres

that said, oblivion would likely sff it more then the average game, since wow is pretty hard to SFF in general.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/1/2009 12:08:07 PM | message detail
Er...why is San Andreas sucking it up so bad anyway? Vice City actually advanced and I thought SA was like, "the" GTA game to play amongst fans.
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74/96 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: God of War > GTA: San Andreas | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/1/2009 12:08:11 PM | message detail
Oh man, God of Failure
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Kleenex...at work!
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/1/2009 12:08:17 PM | message detail
You people do realize, if this turns out to be teasing EVERYONE ON THIS BOARD WILL DIE

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creativename | Posted 5/1/2009 12:08:55 PM | message detail
I really doubt Oblivion would overlap with WoW much at all.

And frankly I think Oblivion is stronger than WoW. Don't get why people are taking WoW advancing twice as a given. It could even flop worse than Halo 2 for all we know, though I wouldn't expect that.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 12:10:32 PM | message detail
Just by looking at these games based on what we expect of ToS (high fodder), I'd be SHOCKED if WoW can't beat it. The rallying should be enough in its own to beat these pieces of trash
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/1/2009 12:11:24 PM | message detail
Uh, ToS isn't high fodder anymore. It isn't a monster or anything, but there's only so low you can put the other three games.

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The Mana Sword | Posted 5/1/2009 12:13:00 PM | message detail
ToS was never fodder, it was never even classified because we had never seen it in action. We were just basing it on character strength, which was apparently a bad idea.

Symphonia's not strong or anything, but it's not fodder.
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Kleenex...at work!
transience | Posted 5/1/2009 12:13:04 PM | message detail
'fodder' has no meaning in this contest anyway.

I still have to see WOW before saying anything definitively, but it should be able to handle Tales of Symphonia. these games are TOS level. TOS isn't super weak but I think WOW would be able to top that.
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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 5/1/2009 12:15:15 PM | message detail
ToS isn't fodder, but this pack is weak zone.

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The Mana Sword | Posted 5/1/2009 12:17:04 PM | message detail
ToS is actually a top 10 game and Oblivion's going to win the contest.

Yes, I like the sound of that.
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Kleenex...at work!
transience | Posted 5/1/2009 12:17:43 PM | message detail
okay, that's more like it. TOS pullin' a Lloyd again!
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg