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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 697

Yesmar | Posted 4/30/2009 11:39:18 PM | message detail
I mean we'll obviously have to see where ToS ends up, but this is still a former GOTY, #11 on The List, widely popular GTA game, losing to a game almost everyone thought would be fodder (albeit high-end level.)
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
General_Zimbad | Posted 4/30/2009 11:40:38 PM | message detail
c'mon ToS don't fall... please.
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transience | Posted 4/30/2009 11:43:54 PM | message detail
it's not like SA falling wasn't telegraphed to the entire world. this is not a surprise; we expected it to be 5-10% higher but that's not that big of a deal.
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yzzyx
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/30/2009 11:44:46 PM | message detail
some had it near 40%
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transience | Posted 4/30/2009 11:46:39 PM | message detail
people had MM2 at 50% too. this is nothin'.
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yzzyx
Yesmar | Posted 4/30/2009 11:50:48 PM | message detail
it's not like SA falling wasn't telegraphed to the entire world. this is not a surprise; we expected it to be 5-10% higher but that's not that big of a deal.

But it's not like people thought San Andreas would only get 55/45 on ToS. I'm sure almost everyone thought this would be close to a doubling. It's still just as large a bombing as Balthier. Some people saw that one coming too.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
Lucid Faia | Posted 4/30/2009 11:52:11 PM | message detail
Come on, Oblivion!

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/30/2009 11:53:17 PM | message detail
wow, ToS is REALLY dying now

its done
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 5/1/2009 12:01:20 AM | message detail
Seriously, WTF Tales. Stop it. Your winning over three games much better than you right now.
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
PreseaCombatir | Posted 5/1/2009 12:01:35 AM | message detail
Stall! But it won't be much longer. ;_;
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transience | Posted 5/1/2009 12:02:54 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3470&type=1&seconds=60&max=0
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
Lucid Faia | Posted 5/1/2009 12:05:54 AM | message detail
Oblivion takes the lead!

"You, I've seen you. Let me see your face... you are the one from my dreams."

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The Ohio State Buckeyes
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PreseaCombatir | Posted 5/1/2009 12:06:08 AM | message detail
Oblivion takes the lead. ;_;
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"Chiri to kashinasai! Kore de... owari desu! HIEN MESSHOUJIN!!! Toki wa modoranai, sore ga sizen no setsuri." ~Presea Combatir
transience | Posted 5/1/2009 12:07:02 AM | message detail
nice update for Oblivion. seeya TOS!
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 12:07:33 AM | message detail
Oblivion takes the lead
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hochiminhX | Posted 5/1/2009 12:08:39 AM | message detail
I still maintain Oblivion has a better day vote than ToS. ToS will do nothing but fall now. It's my favorite game here but it must die so I can achieve leaderboard glory. The next order of business will be to watch God of War trample ToS and then trample Oblivion.

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I may be fine and divine, but sometimes even contest know-nothings like Jose make better predictions than I...though not often
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 5/1/2009 12:09:12 AM | message detail
Finally. Kick some ass Oblivion!
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
ShatteredElysium | Posted 5/1/2009 12:09:36 AM | message detail
By how far would you say that ToS is overperforming here?
Lopen | Posted 5/1/2009 12:09:42 AM | message detail
ToS has stalled this long enough that I think a day vote comeback should be well within the realm of possibility assuming it doesn't just totally die in the next hours.

I could see it turning ~1000 with the day+morning.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 12:11:36 AM | message detail

From: Lopen | #469
ToS has stalled this long enough that I think a day vote comeback should be well within the realm of possibility assuming it doesn't just totally die in the next hours.

I could see it turning ~1000 with the day+morning.


your damage control is cute
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transience | Posted 5/1/2009 12:11:58 AM | message detail
ha what

TOS has a decent day vote, but it's not turning 1000 votes on Oblivion. it'll do better, but it's more like a stall.
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xyzzy
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Lopen | Posted 5/1/2009 12:12:02 AM | message detail
Of course that doesn't mean it can fall 1000 here at night, cause the during school vote is probably going to cause it to lose ground as well.

Gotta keep it within 500. We have a goal.
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Lopen | Posted 5/1/2009 12:12:47 AM | message detail
"Damage control" what

ToS is doing way better than anyone could've expected what are you talking about "damage control"
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 12:14:07 AM | message detail
I'd say ToS needs about 1000 on God of War to be safe.
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Lopen | Posted 5/1/2009 12:15:28 AM | message detail
And I'm not sure why people aren't expecting comebacks here. I'd be afraid of Oblivion not placing at this pace. Elder Scrolls seems to have a pretty all around balanced vote, and it wasn't able to start cutting ToS significantly until the night really started up and GoW is a mere 300 votes behind. Against two day vote games a few hundred votes should be trivial to overturn.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 12:16:18 AM | message detail
Because ToS has pretty balanced trends. I don't see any time it can come back since its power hour vote was the only reason it was winning in the first place.
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Lopen | Posted 5/1/2009 12:17:33 AM | message detail
ToS isn't balanced. It's a day vote game.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 12:19:52 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3251&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

looks pretty damn balanced to me.
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transience | Posted 5/1/2009 12:23:01 AM | message detail
TOS is a day vote game, yeah. its night vote is bad.

but Oblivion's not going to die in the day. I would expect a stall or a slight push for TOS than I would a huge comeback. 1000 votes is what Halo did vs. KOTOR (a game I would expect to have similar trends to Oblivion) - TOS ain't Halo.
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xyzzy
Lopen | Posted 5/1/2009 12:23:44 AM | message detail
The fact that he didn't drop like a rock against a Pokemon, a Nintendo character, and Mega Man X should be enough.

Here's a better poll:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2505&type=2&seconds=60&max=0
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No problem!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 12:25:44 AM | message detail

From: Lopen | #480
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2505&type=2&seconds=60&max=0


I didn't say its a bad day game, just its balanced. Anyone whos not a horrible day vote can win against RE at day.
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Lopen | Posted 5/1/2009 12:26:53 AM | message detail
Mind you, tranny, that I'm counting both voting blocks here, meaning the 300 vote surge for the morning vote Halo got counts. Oh, and also you're lying. Halo turned 2000 votes on KotoR with the ASV.
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PreseaCombatir | Posted 5/1/2009 12:27:41 AM | message detail
Small cut by ToS there. After Oblivion can't seem to get away from ToS for now.
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"Chiri to kashinasai! Kore de... owari desu! HIEN MESSHOUJIN!!! Toki wa modoranai, sore ga sizen no setsuri." ~Presea Combatir
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/1/2009 12:29:18 AM | message detail
So can we laugh at Metroid Prime s'more?
Lopen | Posted 5/1/2009 12:29:19 AM | message detail
I didn't say its a bad day game, just its balanced. Anyone whos not a horrible day vote can win against RE at day.

Not in that decisive a fashion. I mean hell, look at Peach:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2534&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

It's more on par with what Kairi did

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2502&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

Whoo females contest.
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transience | Posted 5/1/2009 12:29:20 AM | message detail
2000? fair enough - I still say TOS couldn't turn 1000 votes. Halo was able to turn that kind of number because it was only down like 500 - TOS won't be that lucky.
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xyzzy
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Lopen | Posted 5/1/2009 12:31:43 AM | message detail
Halo was able to turn that kind of number because it was only down like 500 - TOS won't be that lucky.

At this pace I would doubt Oblivion's going to get much further than that.

Also, I think KotoR would have a better day vote than Oblivion but there probably isn't much basis for that other than "it's Star Wars"
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 12:33:00 AM | message detail
xbox day vote
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transience | Posted 5/1/2009 12:34:50 AM | message detail
well, I think God of War has this match. it's between Oblivion and TOS for second.

curious to see how this plays out.
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xyzzy
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Lopen | Posted 5/1/2009 12:35:08 AM | message detail
Well they're both X-Box. However, we've seen before that Elder Scrolls offerings don't really do much with the day in spite of that-- probably because they're more PC than X-Box. KotoR though, I'd think is more X-Box... and it's Star Wars which screams casual vote to me.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 12:36:32 AM | message detail
Yeah, God of war has this for sure. Best day vote by far of the bunch
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/1/2009 12:37:16 AM | message detail
aww yeah 40 vote gain for oblivion
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Lopen | Posted 5/1/2009 12:38:37 AM | message detail
God of War > Symphonia is what I'm thinking happens right now, yeah. Though I think God of War's day vote prowess is being overrated a bit with proportion to Symphonia... if Symphonia is leading by a few hundred come morning I'll doubt that claim. I just don't think it will be and God of War will overtake it or tie it with the night.
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 5/1/2009 12:42:36 AM | message detail
Oblivion was far more associated with the 360 than Morrowind was with the Xbox.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
greatone10 | Posted 5/1/2009 12:48:16 AM | message detail
Holy crap. I knew I was right when I had San Andreas not getting first, but I never expected this. If Oblivion and TOS hold, I'll have a zero point day, along with most of the board.
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Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
masseffect90 | Posted 5/1/2009 1:00:47 AM | message detail
I had GoW>GTA, but I'll settle for GoW>something else.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/1/2009 1:17:28 AM | message detail
So who will win?
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´
"ToS reminds of my mother. It goes down a lot after 1:00 AM." -GrapefuitKing
General_Zimbad | Posted 5/1/2009 1:18:12 AM | message detail
:D
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These are my friends, I have there backs, they are the closest thing to blood that I have!!!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/1/2009 1:18:28 AM | message detail
GO TALES!
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´
"ToS reminds of my mother. It goes down a lot after 1:00 AM." -GrapefuitKing
dragoontheguy | Posted 5/1/2009 1:18:32 AM | message detail
This topic is having a painfully slow finish, isn't it?
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