GameFAQs Contests

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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 697

paulg235 | Posted 4/29/2009 9:18:38 PM | message detail
NO ITEMS FOX ONLY FINAL DESTINATION

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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The Gamer In Me
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158
KingBartz | Posted 4/29/2009 9:29:40 PM | message detail
Are we jumping the gun just a little bit?
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Check out my Guru bracket: http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=60
red sox 777 | Posted 4/29/2009 9:48:21 PM | message detail
Marth > Fox
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/30/2009 2:37:43 PM | message detail
Roy > Fox > Marth
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/30/2009 3:06:31 PM | message detail
If this keeps getting made at 270, topics will start getting modded. Last warning.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
Forceful Dragon | Posted 4/30/2009 3:08:08 PM | message detail
Oh damn and I was already getting ready to put up 698. This topic is practically full!

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Eff Dee
~Ç~
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/30/2009 3:09:15 PM | message detail

From: Forceful Dragon | Posted: 4/30/2009 6:08:08 PM | #006
Oh damn and I was already getting ready to put up 698. This topic is practically full!


Dibs on 7182
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/30/2009 4:04:59 PM | message detail
Tales of Symphonia for the upset tomorrow!
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 4/30/2009 5:11:41 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bge09/bge09-25.jpg
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
Forceful Dragon | Posted 4/30/2009 5:13:53 PM | message detail
Oh geez, don't even want to think about the next match.

Making my bracket in a few minutes, 15 minutes before brackets close has led to some lol results.

I just couldn't get serious about this contest though or I'd have pored over stats for every match like i usually do.

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Eff Dee
~Ç~
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/30/2009 5:15:04 PM | message detail
Tag
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
ZFS | Posted 4/30/2009 5:15:18 PM | message detail
time for round 2 to get here

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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/30/2009 5:17:50 PM | message detail
Pages and pages of talk about Tales of Symphonia? Less talk about a game that has almost no shot, more talk about Oblivion, people!

You're not making any sense at all, mate.
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Meeks54 | Posted 4/30/2009 5:17:58 PM | message detail
The over a month I had to wait for that thing while playing crap like Luigi's Mansion was torture.

It may be close enough to a launch title now, but I assure you it was not back then.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/30/2009 5:18:39 PM | message detail
The wide range of opinions makes me think the bracket votes might be all over the place for this one.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/30/2009 5:20:25 PM | message detail
Luigi's Mansion was a fine enough game, but too short to last until Melee, for sure.

And I'd imagine San Andreas is the overall bracket favorite, one way or the other. Between Oblivion and God of War for second, I'm not sure. Tales is undoubtedly last.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 4/30/2009 5:22:01 PM | message detail
The wide range of opinions makes me think the bracket votes might be all over the place for this one.

Are you kidding Tales of Symphonia is in this match, I'd be surprised if it didn't lead over the first 10-30 seconds.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SSBM > LoZ: WW Points: 67/92
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/30/2009 5:24:03 PM | message detail
I don't think ToS has ever had that great of an early vote, but I could be wrong.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/30/2009 5:24:26 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #017
The wide range of opinions makes me think the bracket votes might be all over the place for this one.

Are you kidding Tales of Symphonia is in this match, I'd be surprised if it didn't lead over the first 10-30 seconds.


And here I gave board 8 the benefit of the doubt that they didnt have horrible taste
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
creativename | Posted 4/30/2009 5:24:35 PM | message detail
You're not making any sense at all, mate.

Eh? What could possibly be confusing about that?
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gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/30/2009 5:27:48 PM | message detail
I'm kidding! I was trying to joke around since you said we should be talking about Oblivion instead of a game that won't advance!
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Master Moltar | Posted 4/30/2009 5:31:51 PM | message detail
tomorrow's result ToS > whatever

SWORD RAIN DOUBLE DEMON FANG FIERCE DEMON FANG BEAST
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Moltar Status: ahh, there you are
Match 24 - Bracket: SSBM > WW - Vote: SSBM (65/92)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/30/2009 5:32:46 PM | message detail
FACT or FICTION: Final Fantasy X would beat Final Fantasy 3/6 with at least 52% head-to-head.

I might go as high as 55%. FFX wasn't too far behind in 2004, and votals increasing definitely didn't do FF6 any favours.

FACT or FICTION: GTA:SA > GTA3 > GTA:VC > GTA4.

Fiction. GTA4 > SA > VC > 3

FACT or FICTION: Diablo 2 is the strongest Blizzard game in the bracket.

Fiction. WoW.

FACT or FICTION: Super Smash Bros. Melee > Super Mario Bros. 3.

Fiction. It wasn't even close in 2004, and now that Melee is outdated and has been replaced by Brawl, not a chance. Mario 3 would have at least 70% on Wind Waker here.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/30/2009 5:33:18 PM | message detail
REST IN PEACE, SINNE-*gets hit*UGHUGHUGHUGH

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/30/2009 5:34:19 PM | message detail
SWORD RAIN DOUBLE DEMON FANG FIERCE DEMON FANG BEAST

Victory...
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/30/2009 5:34:36 PM | message detail
ToS may have stood a chance if we had some Sheena Cleavage in the pic

http://cdn.myanimelist.net/images/characters/3/26825.jpg
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/30/2009 5:34:59 PM | message detail
Fiction. GTA4 > SA > VC > 3

I have to disagree. How many more examples of hype backlash do we have to see before we stop assuming that a hyped game is going to be a powerhouse? People turned on GTA4 only about a month after its release.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
ZenOfThunder | Posted 4/30/2009 5:35:01 PM | message detail
THIS IS THE PART WHERE YOU FALL DOWN AND BLEED TO DE-*gets hit*YAAAAARGH
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/30/2009 5:35:52 PM | message detail
When will people learn not to hype a game to death because it only ends up looking like a disappointment by comparison?

Poor TP and Brawl.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/30/2009 5:40:31 PM | message detail
Just because a game doesn't live up to the hype doesn't mean it's weak. Show me one example of this. GTA4 sold outstandingly, got good reviews and was pretty high on the XBL playrates for a while. It won't be a power house, but it would have no trouble beating the old GTA games.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
red sox 777 | Posted 4/30/2009 5:40:47 PM | message detail
God of War has a far better chance of winning than Tales of Symphonia has of advancing. As for PotD/GotY polls, everyone remembers the favorite Mario character polls right? And how FFX dismantled Melee back in their GotY poll?

FACT: Final Fantasy X would beat Final Fantasy 3/6 with at least 52% head-to-head.

I don't think it goes much beyond that though. I wouldn't be surprised if FFVI won.

FICTION: GTA:SA > GTA3 > GTA:VC > GTA4.

Fiction. VC > 3 > SA > 4. I'll wait for SA to prove me wrong tonight, if it can.

FICTION: Diablo 2 is the strongest Blizzard game in the bracket.

Fiction. Still think Starcraft is stronger, but they're very close.

FICTION: Super Smash Bros. Melee > Super Mario Bros. 3.

In 2006-7, I think the answer would have been yes. Now that Brawl has come out and disappointed, the hype has faded, and Nintendo as a whole has receded, Mario 3 should have the upper hand again. As I said last topic, I think SSB is much more of a pure Nintendo game than Mario 3, which is universally loved, even by non-Nintendo fans, so SSBM should stand to be hurt much more by the Deboost.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/30/2009 5:41:57 PM | message detail
Turtle, don't use GTA4 sales as an excuse. It sold the worst of the 4 games.
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/30/2009 5:44:46 PM | message detail
We sure do remember the last time Turtle used sales as an excuse.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SSBM > WW - Points: 65/92 Vote: SSBM
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/30/2009 5:56:53 PM | message detail
Brawl wasn't a disappointment, people were just starting to get fed up with Nintendo stupidity around the time Brawl came out. I'm surprised it managed to win GotY with how much anti-Nintendo sentiment there is here.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
creativename | Posted 4/30/2009 5:57:21 PM | message detail
I'm kidding! I was trying to joke around since you said we should be talking about Oblivion instead of a game that won't advance!

Ahhhh... :) I thought maybe you'd copy&pasted the wrong person's post or something.


FACT or FICTION: Super Smash Bros. Melee > Super Mario Bros. 3.

Not even close, and I'd be quite surprised if anyone thought it was.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/30/2009 6:03:15 PM | message detail
HaRR's been pushing that since 2005!

And he may not be the only one!
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/30/2009 6:18:40 PM | message detail
I believed it more then than now, for the record...and it would have been a hell of an upset then!
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/30/2009 6:20:41 PM | message detail
It still would be, and it still wouldn't happen!
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/30/2009 6:22:36 PM | message detail
I imagine predictions here would have been about evenly spread between those games last year, though not any more. I know it was a match I was looking forward to seeing for several years.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/30/2009 6:49:31 PM | message detail
Why does everyone think that GTA:SA is going to win this one? I don't see it being that much stronger than VC, if at all, and GoW could very well use trends similar to Halo to cruise to an easy win, leaving SA for second. What makes everyone so sure about its strength?
HaRRicH | Posted 4/30/2009 6:50:28 PM | message detail
If it was going to happen, it would have likely needed to be during SSBB's big hype. Maybe SSB_-hype will give it another chance in a few years!
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/30/2009 6:52:59 PM | message detail
Did I seriously see people in the last topic arguing that San Andreas wouldn't be anything but the absolute strongest entry in its series?

It can still lose (Oblivion = mini Fallout 3), but... what is wrong with you people?
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/30/2009 6:54:56 PM | message detail
There's probably something about it that would make some people here think it's inferior.

Wish I could just put my finger on it...
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/30/2009 6:55:57 PM | message detail
Well...WHY would it be so strong? That's what I want to know. People have called it the strongest GTA, but I'm not seeing WHY. An explanation would be nice.
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/30/2009 6:57:42 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1831

Old poll, but it still massacred them.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/30/2009 6:59:27 PM | message detail
I'm positive San Andreas is the strongest GTA title.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/30/2009 7:01:47 PM | message detail
When was that poll from? It could be very important.

Also, didn't polls point at FF8 being worse than FF4, for example? I don't think its a good idea to rely on those.
red sox 777 | Posted 4/30/2009 7:06:33 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure BT and I are the only people who said that SA wasn't the strongest in the series. I don't know about him, but I can say that my opinion is based completely on instinct and I have no real reasoning or evidence for it whatever. Nonetheless, I do not find the evidence that it is the strongest in the series convincing.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/30/2009 7:10:42 PM | message detail
Hey look Disgaea just cut Wind Waker a few updates back SUCK IT DOWN LINK

also pretty sure WW's getting SFFed a bit here just sayin'
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/30/2009 7:13:41 PM | message detail
That's the same thing I'm thinking. I know Games are different from characters and all, but I remember the absolutely pitiful performance CJ gave back in 2005, and I see no reason for SA to do much better. I mean, Vice City at least had Vice City stories to count on to remain legit for a longer time, SA just has its own game, which I don't think was as popular in its heyday as VC was when it came out. Maybe it can be slightly below VC's level, but we would need some absolutely epic bombing from the rest of the pack to see it go higher, especially when its facing Halo mythical edition and mini-fallout 3 (or mega fallout 3, I don't see how F3 can be stronger than Oblivion either, especially if No Mutants Allowed decides to anti-vote it for shiggles).