GameFAQs Contests

Nominate Darth Revan for the 2009 Character Battle (it's a better cause than a dozen-Pokemon rally, I promise you)!!!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.

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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.

is darth revan gonna hafta force-choke a *****
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BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now.
www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285

http://starwarsworld.honlapepito.hu/tarhely/starwarsworld/kepek/revan_s_return_by_tansy9.jpg

With a name like Darth Revan and a pic like this, he would be Super Altair.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Tag
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

Being the only major PS2 powerhouse there (no, Okami doesn't count) against a Halo game and WoW, I expect it to impress more than anyone's expecting.

I'm also expecting big things from Snake Eater, but given all we've seen (including MGS2 kinda sorta stinking up the joint), I won't rule out the possibility of it disappointing.

...although I still expect it to take first. A disappointing win in this format. I guess it could happen.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.

Being the only major PS2 powerhouse there (no, Okami doesn't count) against a Halo game and WoW, I expect it to impress more than anyone's expecting.

I expect it to do well also, but... that's sort of the exact same situation GTA3 is in today and we've all seen how that's working.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

The key mistake there is in labeling GTA3 a powerhouse!

(and it's still got 45% on D2 which is more than I'm guessing most were expecting pre-contest)
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

I honestly think Halo would have beaten D2 today if not for KOTOR, and I expect it to win next round. H2 and H3, I don't see doing much of anything.

Here's where we disagree. Looking at today's match, the two biggest disappointments are clearly Halo and GTA. While we can assume this is all due to them falling flat (and, in Halo's case, splitting with KotOR), but I also think there's a casual split going on here. They're pulling in a combined 48% of the vote right now, and I don't think anyone thought D2+KotOR would be winning the match. If Halo is splitting with GTA, I don't see why it wouldn't split with Melee, one of the most casual-friendly, multiplayer-centric games on this site. Yes, a Halo/Melee split. Go ahead and fling the mud, boys!

Aside from that, there are a few other reasons I expect to see Diablo move on again. It'll have more Stand Out Factor and Halo will be buried pretty bad for the first 15 hours (and I doubt the Diablo fans would allow it to relinquish the type of lead it would have).
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.

Halo splitting with KotoR makes a lot more sense to me than Halo splitting with GTA. I mean, the proof is in the trends if you're doubting that KotoR is primarily an X-Box game. They both gobbled up the day vote like fiends.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

so...what was the last match that had everyone in the 20s?
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims Kiddy Grade's Eclair & C.C.*

Marth/Duke/Niko/Kefka
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.

Marth/Niko/Duke/Kefka I believe.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

Marth/Duke/Niko/Kefka.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

Duke/Niko/Kefka/Marth
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.

Whoops, got the 500th post by accident. Well, anyway, looking at most of the predictions I've seen on this board, I think Melee is being underestimated. Let's compare this pack to RBY's:

Majora's Mask = Wind Waker
Perfect Dark > Disgaea
Banjo Kazooie = Fire Emblem

Maybe those aren't quite right, and this pack is stronger, but they should be pretty close either way. RBY broke 50% on its pack. Which game is stronger? People have been rather down on Melee lately, and it must have fallen with the Deboost, but there's a reason Brawl was so incredibly hyped in the first place. We've seen other strong games like Mario Kart 64 and RBY itself fail to make their series worth much. Melee, however, made its series beat down Sonic easily and then put up 37% against Super Mario Bros. itself. That match still floors me, and especially after seeing so many cases of Games =/= Series this year. I can see people prefering Melee to any Mario game, but this year seems to show that that is not sufficient to get a vote for the series. Prefering the Smash series to the Mario series? It's just incredible that 37% of the site would vote that way!

It's true that we don't have any hard evidence of Melee being very strong- in 2004 it was a fair amount behind SMB3, and the bottom of the Super Seven. It's shown signs of extremely high levels of strength since then through the Series Contest, Brawl's incredible hype, and the performance of its characters. I don't expect it to be at its 2006-7 levels now, but it should still be very strong, stronger than RBY. It is also THE Gamecube game, the only Gamecube game that is really still relevant, and it's going to go to town on this field of GC games and Disgaea- I expect it to beat RBY's percentage and wouldn't be surprised if it beat it by a lot.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

I've got Melee putting up 62% on Wind Waker. I probably shouldn't be pulling triggers when my goal is to steadily move up the Oracle, but eh, half of the vote for Smash seems right against its competition.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.

I wont be suprised if WW puts up a good showing.
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***UNC TARHEELS 2008-2009 NCAA CHAMPIONS***
AKA Super Luigi. Go Hurricanes! CAR - 0 BOS- 0

Prefering the Smash series to the Mario series? It's just incredible that 37% of the site would vote that way!

Brawl hype. Run that poll again, and I doubt SSB breaks 30%.

Not that Melee isn't going to be a BIG powerhouse (I still think it's stronger than FFX, sadly), but that's because it's pretty much ALL Smash has. SSB 64 and Brawl are comparative chumps.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

2004 Melee > present Brawl > Present Melee
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

Forget running that poll again, I want a new "What is your favorite Nintendo series?" poll with a list of relevant series instead of series like FE pre-America!
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BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now.
www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285

62% is lower than what RBY got against MM (63.7%), and pretty close to (maybe a tad lower than) what I'd expect SSBM to get on WW without SFF. When I say go to town, I mean a lot higher, like 70% for Melee against WW, and 55% overall.

As for Brawl hype....that just proves Melee's strength- why else would Brawl have been hyped? I agree rerunning SMB/SSB today would produce a much more sane result, but Melee still looks stronger than RBY to me.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

2004 Melee > present Brawl > Present Melee

Would you like to make this our sig-bet instead? Because I would bet property SSBM > SSBB.
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BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now.
www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285

I think most people would grant Wind Waker > Majora's Mask today.
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xyzzy

I can't see MM and WW being too far off from eachother. even with Majora's Bomb
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

H__RR____H
Posted 4/29/2009 11:19:47 PM
message detail 2004 Melee > present Brawl > Present Melee

Would you like to make this our sig-bet instead? Because I would bet property SSBM > SSBB.

We don't really have any way of proving that, but it only makes sense that Brawl is stronger since it is basically an improved version of Smash with more characters and more recency. Same reason I'd take Madden 09 over Madden 08 for example, or Mario Kart 64 over Super Mario Kart.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

Match XXIV: Disgaea: Hour of Darkness vs. Fire Emblem vs. Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. LoZ: The Wind Waker

Information:

Name: Disgaea: Hour of Darkness
Year: 2003
System: PS2
2004 Performance: Did not enter

Name: Fire Emblem
Year: 2003
System: GBA
2004 Performance: 33.64% against Final Fantasy Tactics Advance

Name: Super Smash Bros. Melee
Year: 2001
System: GC
2004 Performance: 56.72% against Metal Gear Solid 2, 53.54% against GTA: Vice City, 50.94% against Final Fantasy X, 50.27% against Starcraft, 37.57% against Final Fantasy VII

Name: LoZ: The Wind Waker
Year: 2003
System: GC
2004 Performance: 74.71% against Skies of Arcadia, 55.22% against Metroid Prime, 49.90% against Starcraft

Analysis

For two great matches in a row we must endure a boring one. This is the final match where we can use 2004 stats, as much of a help they’ve been. All eyes are on Melee to see whether or not it can reclaim its title as the number one game of this era. Also appearing is Wind Waker getting the match it was denied five years ago, last place of the 128-bit division Fire Emblem and fodder that enters each contest’s game.

Melee vs. Wind Waker was a hotly debated match after the 2004 contest. At the time Melee had more support (though before 2004 it was the opposite), being able to defeat Starcraft despite cheating while Wind Waker was unable and that it’s the entire Nintendo cast vs. an unlike Zelda game. Today it’s a near unanimous that Melee is stronger than Wind Waker. Since then we’ve seen a Nintendo boost and a boost in the Super Smash Bros. series. Also with Starcraft’s half of the bracket proving to be more of a dud than most expected things are not looking good for Wind Waker.

Wind Waker is also not the newest Zelda released and with Twilight Princess being much more liked it should be likely that Wind Waker took a hit in popularity over the past five years. Melee on the other hand is still liked despite having a sequel and is expected to be stronger than its 2004 self, though I’m pretty sure that Melee itself was overrated against Final Fantasy VII, but we’ll never know since everyone in this division is either new or related to Melee in the 2004 contest.

Originally Golden Sun was in Fire Emblem’s spot, however out of the six replacements this had to be the worst one. Golden Sun was at least different enough not to get blasted by Melee and Wind Waker and unlike Fire Emblem Golden Sun was not in the previous contest. Sure Fire Emblem may have been SFF by FFTA, but we’ll never know in this match seeing that Fire Emblem received the worst match-up in the division. Fire Emblem may be SFF so badly that Disgaea may have a chance at defeating it.

Laharl is one of those characters that everyone knows is terrible yet is still able to sneak back into the contest. I don’t expect much from Disgaea, but being the odd game it could have a chance at defeating a SFF Fire Emblem. Laharl and Disgaea at least has a hardcore fanbase so while the competition is tough it can still have enough fans to defeat Fire Emblem at low percents. You know this match is boring when the only interesting thing is how badly Fire Emblem and Disgaea are going to do.

I wonder how much Melee will defeat Wind Waker by. Both games are top tier games for the Gamecube, but Melee is the king and you’ll probably find it hard to find someone who prefers Wind Waker over Melee. Zelda is a powerful force in this contest, but even that force can only go so far. Also the worse Wind Waker looks here the better the chance that it will be eliminated next round thus giving Melee a better chance at defeating Final Fantasy X.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Super Smash Bros. Melee > LoZ: The Wind Waker

charmander6000’s Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Melee – 51.87%, LoZ: The Wind Waker – 28.04%, Fire Emblem – 10.36%, Disgaea – 9.73%

Melee was only one component of Brawl's massive hype. All of the expectation was on Brawl to blow Melee away, and the constant site updates, the character lineup, everything seemed to point in that direction right up until the final disappointing release. Melee is still the most popular Smash game and a probable Top 5 overall, but I think it's a no-brainer to assert that it was stronger pre-Brawl release.

...though it should still be a ways above its 2k4 self, like most sane people here realize.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

I'll wager Melee fails to break 50%. Wager will be sig bet until the Brawl/Galaxy match.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

We don't really have any way of proving that, but it only makes sense that Brawl is stronger since it is basically an improved version of Smash with more characters and more recency.

lol
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

I mean wait TP is basically just an improved version of OoT with more characters and more recency hold on gotta change my predictions
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

What?

From what I see, the only people who don't prefer Brawl are competitive Smash players (or wannabe competative Smash players), and their opinions don't count.

The site is far more casual than you think it is, Brawl would be the heavy casual favourite.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

Turtle needs to abandon the fail logic of hyped game = powerhouse.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

Umm... to anyone who thought GTA3 disappointed, were you expecting it to take second or first? While being overshadowed by KotOR GTA3 is actually impressing.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Halo > Diablo II Points: 65/88

No post-release polls back that up. Brawl got 52% on MGS4. Melee got 57% on MGS2 at a time when it was probably less popular than it is now.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.

Oh come on now. I shouldn't have to explain it, but things like Smash, Mario Kart etc is that they are party games. You pop it in, have a few rounds then turn it off. Games like Zelda are immersive experiences with different worlds, environments, characters and plots.

Now you're just fishing for arguments.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

And you, Turtle, are grasping at straws.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

charmander6000
Posted 4/29/2009 11:27:48 PM
message detail Umm... to anyone who thought GTA3 disappointed, were you expecting it to take second or first? While being overshadowed by KotOR GTA3 is actually impressing.

I'm guessing most of the people saying that are only saying that because they got burned by Vice City yesterday. "GTA must be strong if it can easily beat Metroid Prime like that! GTA > Diablo!"
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

Meh, I don't really care to bet on SSBM breaking 50% -- I figure it will based off of SSBM/RBY-comparisons, but I'm more interested in what you originally said about SSBB > SSBM (though it would be harder to prove for certain, granted). No bet this time.
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BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now.
www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285

From: charmander6000 | #033
Umm... to anyone who thought GTA3 disappointed, were you expecting it to take second or first? While being overshadowed by KotOR GTA3 is actually impressing.

I was expecting it to take second because I was counting on a Halo bomb (delivered) and a Halo/KotOR split (seemingly delivered). Both disadvantages came through for Halo, but GTA had to **** everything up and be weaker than I thought. Its 22% is pretty bad.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.

If Brawl had a turbofodder-ridden match like Melee does, it would be easier to compare. Oh well.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

I prefer Brawl cuz I'm a Smash Bros Casual who likes Zero Suit Samus cuz I think she's sexy.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif

man, why is it always a blizzard game that ruins brackets. I had Halo going pretty far.

What's hysterical is that I have WoW going REALLY far. I think i put in all my chips in the wrong Blizzard game, lol.
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Name: Flex
FC: 4510 7199 0698

It happens. Blizzard has burned everyone here at one point or another.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.

I do wanna ask you this though BT: SSBB or R/B/Y, who ya got?
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BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now.
www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285

It happens. Blizzard has burned everyone here at one point or another.

Picking Ridley to win the Ruin Division instead of Diablo is the ONLY reason why I didn't have the first perfect bracket in GameFAQs history. Instead, I lost seven points and didn't even finish in the Top Fifty.
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BT about Round Two: If Snake gets 43-45%, I'll close my account right now.
www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3285

The only people I've seen that prefer Brawl are.......actually, Board 8. Most people don't care that some people take a game seriously and don't see the need to denigrate them or anti-vote their game. Most of the fanbase is rather indifferent between the two, with serious players and less serious players who at least see it as a fighter more than a party game being the obvious exception, and that should give Melee the edge. That fanbase is not trivial- it's probably a lot larger than SF2's serious fanbase on Gamefaqs, and they support Melee overwhelmingly. Melee is to Brawl what 1v1s are to 4-ways. The analogy is also true in that those are probably the ideal ways to play each game, or at least the way seemingly favored by most of their supporters.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Picking Ridley to win the Ruin Division instead of Diablo is the ONLY reason why I didn't have the first perfect bracket in GameFAQs history. Instead, I lost seven points and didn't even finish in the Top Fifty.

I feel your pain, if I picked Diablo > Ridley my only wrong pick would have been Kuja > Master Hand

Stupid glove.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Halo > Diablo II Points: 65/88

I do wanna ask you this though BT: SSBB or R/B/Y, who ya got?

That's a tough call. I still doubt R/B/Y a little bit and don't want to make a decision until we see how it stands up next round. Right now I'd say R/B/Y though because I have a feeling New Nintendo is going to be surprisingly disappointing. Prime, Majora's Mask, and probably Wind Waker/Melee tomorrow for example.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1

You gotta admit, I thought Halo would've smashed KotOR with SFF, being on the same console and all.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

I have Halo > Melee next round so I'm hoping that KotOR and GTA3 held it back by a lot.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Halo > Diablo II Points: 65/88