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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 695

PrinceKaro | Posted 4/29/2009 10:04:16 AM | message detail
I think it's now safe to say that Halo totally and utterly sucks in the best game ever contests.

I mean, I'm not a big fan of Halo, but if it doesn't manage to advance in this extremely weak division, it fails on an epic scale.

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...and this is for MUFFIN!!!!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/29/2009 10:04:27 AM | message detail
Although I guess you can make the case for a Halo/GTA casual split. I sure didn't expect them to combine for a mere 46%, and a split would definitely help explain that. However, it makes a Halo/Melee split more likely for the next round, so Diablo obviously benefits there.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/29/2009 10:04:27 AM | message detail
And now that we're getting near the end of the first round, I'd like to say that this is easily the worst I've done in a contest so far. I'm in 188th place in the guru. This is brutal.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
GrapefruitKing | Posted 4/29/2009 10:04:38 AM | message detail
KotOR was weak in 2004

I wouldn't call 40% on '04 Vice City "weak"
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Today's prediction: Halo 31.00% - GTA3 26.55% - Diablo II 26.27% - KOTOR 16.18%
Status: god damnit
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/29/2009 10:05:59 AM | message detail
So... Starcraft vs. Diablo 2

Who you got?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/29/2009 10:06:56 AM | message detail
Yeah, in retrospect, KotOR looking this good makes sense if you look at how much GTA has fallen off the map in the last few years.

Which makes Metroid Prime look like turbofodder.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/29/2009 10:09:13 AM | message detail

From: XIII_rocks | #048
Magus/Knuckles had no legit reasoning behind it. That's just statheads trying to rationalise. Is and always will be the biggest upset ever - certainly nothing in this format can ever top it, since it is much more conducive to upsets.


Magus performed well in 2003 (year of our the Square) then dipped in 2004, but it was concealed by a 100% SFF match. 2005 rolls around, he dips further, Knuckles wipes him. Still a tremendous upset, but still not as baffling as this one. Seriously, even if you try to explain this with "Halo has fallen off the Grand Canyon," how can it possibly drop more than KotOR, which has had nothing since 2004 (save for one sequel which was largely rejected by the fanbase)?

I wouldn't call 40% on '04 Vice City "weak"

You're right. I think all of those next-gen games in 2004 looked pretty competitive relative to each other, but KotOR was still definitely a couple of notches below Halo.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
charmander6000 | Posted 4/29/2009 10:09:37 AM | message detail
Magus/Knuckles had no legit reasoning behind it. That's just statheads trying to rationalise. Is and always will be the biggest upset ever - certainly nothing in this format can ever top it, since it is much more conducive to upsets.

Yes it did, everything was pointing at Magus being overrated in 2003, I actually saw this coming, but discreditted it because of Ganondorf's performance on the villain's contest. However Knuckles still needed a boost to defeated Magus which he did.

As for KotOR, we've seen how badly the top half of the 128-bit division performed. I wouldn't be surprised if KotOR could have defeated Halo in 2004. Still I surely thought it would be one of those games that took a nasty fall since the previous contest.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Halo > Diablo II Points: 65/88
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/29/2009 10:11:39 AM | message detail
Still I surely thought it would be one of those games that took a nasty fall since the previous contest.

Exactly. It got one poorly received sequel in 2004 and then nothing for five years. Even if you figure this fourpack blows a lot worse than we thought it would, KotOR must have still aged pretty well.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
creativename | Posted 4/29/2009 10:12:05 AM | message detail
CS&D POLL: Starcraft vs. Diablo 2

I was saying back in 2K4 that Diablo 2 was stronger than Stacraft. I don't think many believed me, but I've always thought Diablo 2 would've beaten Halo pretty comfortably back then, without the need for any rallying like Starcraft.

Diablo 2 is definitely significantly weaker than it was back then - it would've been a big force back in the day.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 4/29/2009 10:13:20 AM | message detail
Uhm, wow, this match still seems like it could be epic. Diablo II is going down. The other three games are coming up, but KOTOR is coming up very slowly. Oddly enough, the games, sorted out by the percentage gains, probably go like GTAIII > Halo > KOTOR > Diablo II, which is the exact opposite order of where they are standing percentage-wise. So let's predict tomorrow's match.

Alright, so there's one non-Nintendo game in the match, but that's Disgaea, which is cult stuff. I think Disgaea could finish ahead of Fire Emblem though, because FE is facing the game that perhaps is the whole reason for it even BEING in this contest, not to mention LEGEND OF ZELDA. So we have two guaranteed advancers in Super Smash Bros. Melee and Zelda: Wind Waker. I don't think Wind Waker has gone down since last contest at all, as a matter of fact, it's probably went UP, thanks to a direct sequel and another one following in its tracks (spirit tracks, to be honest). I don't think Wind Waker is a top ten game like the x-stats for last games contest suggest, however. I really do not think, though, that Melee will double Wind Waker, that's VERY ludicrous. SSBM has the sales advantage, but, all the same, most Nintendo fans prefer Wind Waker, and that's where the SFF is going. I'm going to be surprised if SSBM SFFd Wind Waker. And am I the only one who thinks SSBM has lost a good amount of its luster due to its sequel? I still picked SSBM to win here for some reason though, so I guess we'll go with that pick! I really hope Wind Waker beats SSBM, as SSBM is VERY overrated on this site. I mean, it was good to showcase the GCN's technical prowess at animating N64 characters and showing how much content a GCN game could have, but honestly, what's so "exceptional" about SSBM now?
Prediction: SSBM > Wind Waker
Bracket: SSBM > Wind Waker
Favorites: Wind Waker > SSBM
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/29/2009 10:13:50 AM | message detail
Wasn't Diablo rallied on some big D2 site back in 2005 (the homepage actually linked here)? Any news on what's become of that? I figured Albion would be all over it.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
creativename | Posted 4/29/2009 10:14:17 AM | message detail
KotOR must have still aged pretty well.

Yeah, I'd say all three other games are weaker than they would've been in 2K4, but Star Wars seems to not have dipped.

Being critically acclaimed and beloved (without any backlash like Halo) leads to you being remembered even though you aren't talked about much, I guess.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/29/2009 10:14:18 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #062
Wasn't Diablo rallied on some big D2 site back in 2005 (the homepage actually linked here)? Any news on what's become of that? I figured Albion would be all over it.


I dunno, I didn't rally for it back then.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 4/29/2009 10:16:59 AM | message detail
Man, I really wanna see a 25/25/25/25 update today.
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Kleenex...at work!
charmander6000 | Posted 4/29/2009 10:18:25 AM | message detail
That site basically said this is the last time they were doing it.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Halo > Diablo II Points: 65/88
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/29/2009 10:19:54 AM | message detail
Still I surely thought it would be one of those games that took a nasty fall since the previous contest.

I have to agree. This is extremely baffling. There's really no way to explain this that makes sense other than KotOR must have aged extremely well. Aftr all, why would it NOT have taken a nasty drop after 5 years?
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/29/2009 10:21:37 AM | message detail
Maybe with Xbox being more accepted these days then in 2004, theres more old school xbox fans on the site in general?
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/29/2009 10:22:18 AM | message detail
Halo/GTA3 is now the closest match
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Halo > Diablo II Points: 65/88
Mac Arrowny | Posted 4/29/2009 10:31:25 AM | message detail
Why would KotOR get weaker because of a lack of sequel? It seems to be the games with superior sequels (Halo, GTA, likely Wind Waker) that are dropping here. KotOR still stands out as the greatest Star Wars game ever.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/29/2009 10:33:45 AM | message detail
Games don't need reasons (at least not reasons we can have confidence are the correct reasons) not to drop.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/29/2009 10:34:46 AM | message detail
That's actually an excellent point. Perhaps we can call KotOR a Chrono Trigger-lite-lite or something. Seems like some of these classics can stand the test of time without a big series name.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/29/2009 10:35:29 AM | message detail

From: Mac Arrowny | #070
Why would KotOR get weaker because of a lack of sequel? It seems to be the games with superior sequels (Halo, GTA, likely Wind Waker) that are dropping here. KotOR still stands out as the greatest Star Wars game ever.


But it had a sequel and its getting a major MMORPG soon.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/29/2009 10:36:15 AM | message detail
I don't think Wind Waker has gone down since last contest at all, as a matter of fact, it's probably went UP, thanks to a direct sequel and another one following in its tracks (spirit tracks, to be honest).

...Why? After all, everything from Starcraft's half of the division (except Kingdom Hearts, that is) tanked massively, including Starcraft itself. And Wind Waker ONLY got 55% on Metroid Prime, which is extremely unimpressive (and MP's stinkbomb yesterday only makes it even worse).
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/29/2009 10:38:12 AM | message detail
But it had a sequel

Which was poorly received by the fanbase.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/29/2009 10:39:19 AM | message detail
I think the news about its upcoming MMO (Star Wars: The Old Republic), might have boosted it. Its one of the biggest games in development right now.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/29/2009 10:41:35 AM | message detail
I think he means that WW has not fallen since 2004, not that it wasn't overrated back then.

My feeling is that WW has fallen pretty hard because it has lost a lot of relevance- it was the newest game, the current game, of the #1 (well, maybe #2 at the time) series on the site back then. Today, it, along with Majora's Mask, are the black sheep of the series. The Gamecube in general has lost a lot of relevance, I think, with the exception of Melee. It was the flagship Nintendo console then, but now Nintendo fans can ignore it and still be Nintendo fanboys. These are all just feelings though- I wouldn't be shocked if WW has held up alright over these 5 years.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
hochiminhX | Posted 4/29/2009 10:49:17 AM | message detail
There is a sizable coalition of both Nintendo fans and Square fans that have absolutely no interest in casual games like Halo and GTA. Therefore, I stipulate that they will inadvertently gravitate towards "Star Wars" even if they've never played the game before.

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I may be fine and divine, but sometimes even contest know-nothings like Jose make better predictions than I...though not often
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/29/2009 10:50:02 AM | message detail

From: hochiminhX | #078
There is a sizable coalition of both Nintendo fans and Square fans that have absolutely no interest in casual games like Halo and GTA. Therefore, I stipulate that they will inadvertently gravitate towards "Star Wars" even if they've never played the game before.


While hochis logic is often unfounded, this actually does seem to make sense.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/29/2009 10:51:08 AM | message detail
Tomorrow will be something like 45%, 25%, 15%, 15%. Wind Waker itself is going to be pitiful, and that's before the SFF beating Melee will lay down.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/29/2009 10:57:34 AM | message detail
Magus/Knuckles had no legit reasoning behind it. That's just statheads trying to rationalise.

Technically, that's not true. There were plenty of matches that pointed to Magus being a lot weaker than what the 2003 stats said he was, and I used them to prove Squall > Magus. I just didn't think it made him weak enough to lose to Knuckles, however!
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The Mana Sword | Posted 4/29/2009 10:58:49 AM | message detail
ASV needs to hurry up and get here.
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Kleenex...at work!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/29/2009 10:59:49 AM | message detail
Alright, let's give KotOR the benefit of the doubt and say it's up 700 by 15:00. How quickly does Halo tear through that lead?
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/29/2009 11:00:15 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #083
Alright, let's give KotOR the benefit of the doubt and say it's up 700 by 15:00. How quickly does Halo tear through that lead?


2 Hours.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/29/2009 11:02:17 AM | message detail
Still a tremendous upset, but still not as baffling as this one.

KOTOR taking second place isn't that baffling to me. It's not like these games are powerhouses by any stretch of the imagination (or even perceived powerhouses like Magus was). I thought KOTOR had a shot here, but I was expecting it to be more at Diablo's expense than Halo's though.

And this match reminds me of Duke/Marth/Niko/Kefka.

Duke = KOTOR
Marth = Diablo II
Niko = GTA III (Duh)
Kefka = Halo

The connection is there!

I think Halo does take second place by the end though. 600 votes won't be too hard to overcome even with a modest ASV increase. Of course, that depends on how KOTOR's ASV will be.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/29/2009 11:02:47 AM | message detail
Kefka = Halo

lol wut
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/29/2009 11:04:08 AM | message detail
Chokers and weak both of them are!

Magus vs. Master Chief today: who do you take?
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The Mana Sword | Posted 4/29/2009 11:04:33 AM | message detail
Chief wrecks Magus.
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Kleenex...at work!
XIII_rocks | Posted 4/29/2009 11:08:26 AM | message detail
Yes it did, everything was pointing at Magus being overrated in 2003, I actually saw this coming, but discreditted it because of Ganondorf's performance on the villain's contest. However Knuckles still needed a boost to defeated Magus which he did.

Funny how people now, four years later, crawl out of the woodwork to talk about how much they "saw it coming". So typical of Board 8. It was amazing then, but overrated now. See Shadow of the Colossus, Tales of Symphonia, Resident Evil 4.

Any result can be rationalised, that's not the point. What happens then and there are what matters, and nobody saw Knuckles beating Magus coming (and piss off if you say you did, because you're lying). Nobody saw this one coming either, true, but at the same time the result is hardly flooring everybody because the format makes this kind of thing very, very possible.
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Justice for FD
"This topic is now about Renee Walker aka Rack Bauer." - LostHisHardcore http://i39.tinypic.com/2ps1s76.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/29/2009 11:08:54 AM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Vice City | K. Hearts | M. Prime | Paper Mario | Demographic
EBV | 21.11% | 35.39% | 27.27% | 16.24% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 23.22% | 37.19% | 24.74% | 14.84% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 26.21% | 38.66% | 23.32% | 11.80% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 26.18% | 37.38% | 23.57% | 12.87% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 26.36% | 37.78% | 23.16% | 12.69% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 22.52% | 40.23% | 21.05% | 16.20% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 22.05% | 42.42% | 20.55% | 14.97% | (22:00-24:00)

Kingdom Hearts with a bad board vote and a pretty good night vote. It did have a 2.5% increase with the ASV, which is a decent sized boost, and then it went up nearly another 2% with the second night vote, which is pretty crazy. GTA also customarily has a horrible board vote, but it stayed strong all the way up to the ASV and second night vote, where it dropped off big time. Prime with a strong board vote, and it also had a bad ASV and an even worse second night vote. Paper Mario had a great board vote and Power Hour, did horribly all the way up the ASV, and just jumped up 3.5% out of nowhere. I don't know if I've seen such extreme jumps by a last place game.

Yesterday's stats:

Kingdom Hearts – 50.00%
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City – 38.60%
Metroid Prime – 36.62%
Paper Mario – 26.57%

For the record, MGS2 got 37.74% on FFX, StarCraft got 38.85% on FFVIII, Tactics got 38.05% on MGS, and Majora's Mask got 36.28% on R/B/Y.

With that said, rank...

Vice City
MGS2
Metroid Prime
StarCraft
Final Fantasy Tactics
Majora's Mask

How you feel about these basically determines how you feel about the others!
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/29/2009 11:10:03 AM | message detail
Leon did call Squall > Magus before the contest, and did call Magus being overrated, but not to the extent that he'd lose to Knuckles. He was very vocal about this.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/29/2009 11:10:05 AM | message detail
Kefka = Halo

lol wut


Perennially overrated choker!
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/29/2009 11:10:51 AM | message detail
.......| Diablo II | .......GTA3 | Halo...... | KotOR
1:00 | 28.66% | 20.97% | 25.88% | 24.49%
2:00 | 30.96% | 21.59% | 23.44% | 24.01%
3:00 | 29.36% | 22.47% | 23.06% | 25.11%
4:00 | 31.24% | 24.51% | 20.42% | 23.83%
5:00 | 30.25% | 24.56% | 20.17% | 25.02%
6:00 | 29.66% | 26.15% | 20.71% | 23.48%
7:00 | 27.59% | 23.73% | 24.63% | 24.04%
8:00 | 27.53% | 23.69% | 24.88% | 23.90%
9:00 | 27.14% | 23.15% | 25.20% | 24.52%
10:00 | 28.03% | 23.30% | 23.55% | 25.13%
11:00 | 27.89% | 21.92% | 24.38% | 25.81%
12:00 | 28.36% | 23.41% | 23.58% | 24.65%
13:00 | 27.88% | 23.82% | 23.43% | 24.88%
14:00 | 27.08% | 23.74% | 22.64% | 26.55%

Diablo II has never failed to win each hour and even its worst hour beats everyone else's best.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Halo > Diablo II Points: 65/88
XIII_rocks | Posted 4/29/2009 11:12:43 AM | message detail

From: red sox 777
Leon did call Squall > Magus before the contest, and did call Magus being overrated, but not to the extent that he'd lose to Knuckles. He was very vocal about this.


Thanks for telling me that dude, I'd completely forgotten about how debated Squall/Magus was.

I know there was much talk about Magus being overrated and losing to Squall. It means absolutely **** all though, since it has no bearing on the match with Knuckles, which nobody predicted. Like I said, trying to needlessly rationalise the situation.
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voltch | Posted 4/29/2009 11:14:01 AM | message detail
I came back to see that oh crap i nearly came as result no wait i didn't but someone explain the trends so far of this match.

Early on it was far more even,when did diablo 2 make a move and what are the current trends?
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/29/2009 11:14:51 AM | message detail
Funny how people now, four years later, crawl out of the woodwork to talk about how much they "saw it coming". So typical of Board 8. It was amazing then, but overrated now. See Shadow of the Colossus, Tales of Symphonia, Resident Evil 4.

Any result can be rationalised, that's not the point. What happens then and there are what matters, and nobody saw Knuckles beating Magus coming (and piss off if you say you did, because you're lying). Nobody saw this one coming either, true, but at the same time the result is hardly flooring everybody because the format makes this kind of thing very, very possible.


No I did not see Knuckles > Magus coming because even at Magus' proposed strength he would have still defeated Knuckles.

Also I did calculate the possibility that Magus/Ganon/Tidus were overrated in 2005, it was shot down because Ganondorf did so well in the villain's contest. Everything except Ganondorf pointed at that drop and any stat head looking for a reason why Tidus dropped in 2004 would have seen that.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Halo > Diablo II Points: 65/88
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/29/2009 11:16:00 AM | message detail
Technically, Smurf DID have Knuckles > Magus in 2005, but I doubt it was based on any sort of logic!
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MnMZero | Posted 4/29/2009 11:16:36 AM | message detail
Yeah, its true that nobody expected Magus > Knuckles, but there were a number of people who thought Magus was overrated.

All people are saying here was that Knuckles actually beating Magus was no surprise as there were a bunch of reasons to explain why that happened.
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creativename | Posted 4/29/2009 11:18:08 AM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts with a bad board vote and a pretty good night vote. It did have a 2.5% increase with the ASV, which is a decent sized boost, and then it went up nearly another 2% with the second night vote,

Pretty interesting. From how people were talking about it's ASV not being good I didn't think it had gone up that much. A bit surprised at the second night vote being even better for it - is that what Kingdom Hearts has done before?

Here's a request/suggestion on the formatting for this stuff - could you place the hours in the second column instead of the last column? The acronyms are confusing and the hours being in the second column would make things easier to understand. Also you could format them like 01:00.
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/29/2009 11:18:36 AM | message detail
Two KotOR cuts on Diablo II in a row. One more until KotOR > Diablo II becomes a lock
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