GameFAQs Contests

This Topic just got Voltch'D!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2455

This contest is going to get HALO'D tomorrow.

...I think?
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

The difference is that KH has has reason to go up, while Wind Waker hasn't.

WW is probably a little above Majora's Mask, but I wouldn't expect anything more from it. Melee should kill it pretty good - a doubling sounds right.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

The difference is that KH has has reason to go up, while Wind Waker hasn't.

Well, there WAS that Nintendo Boost a few years back...

Not that it's helping Prime or anything!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

I just can't see many Melee fans preferring Wind Waker.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif

Tag

And yes, while WW is weak, I'd still take it over MM...at least until we see it in action
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

Oh wow. A 500th post that was actually kinda funny. That's like a first.

Many of us thought that San Andreas and GTAIV would make Vice City completely irrelevant. It's not lighting up the polls or anything, but it's going to advance, so it looks like we were wrong.

I was among those. I actually thought Paper Mario could come close to VC - was way off on that.

It does look like the GTA games will probably be somewhat clumped together. I don't know if GTA3 will be stronger than VC, but before VC did OK GTA3 was the only GTA game I thought would surpass expectations, because it was an industry-changing game.
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gamefaqscontests.com
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Gotta say, KotOR has box art that translates pretty well into a match pic. Get ready for a surprise showing!
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.

I'm loosely serious on SSBM doubling LoZ:WW, but not very. I do think SSBM > RBY and SSBM/LoZ:WW have more in common than RBY/LoZ:MM, and I doubt LoZ:WW/LoZ:MM are far apart:

1) A good theory was brought up about how only SSBM has really stood the test of time for first-party Nintendo games on the Gamecube.
2) People were looking forward to LoZ:WW a lot less than LoZ:MM before their releases (I know LoZ:WW set pre-sale records, but I think that was because of Master Quest...does any kind of sales-comparison suggest this, by chance?).
3) LoZ:WW beat LoZ:MM by one spot in the Top 100 List when it was the newest LoZ-game...
4) ...LoZ:WW is no longer the most recent LoZ game, as it now has a successor...
5) ...and that sequel tripled it in the GotC-poll, yet we're not taking LoZ:TP > SSBM.

I do think SSBM will push for the doubling and beat LoZ:WW worse than RBY beat LoZ:MM, but I doubt SSBM actually hits the doubling-mark...which is nice since that's probably my favorite LoZ game (I say this having just beat the Second Quest on the original LoZ!).
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

I'll throw KOTOR an underdog vote, but I don't expect anything from it. It just isn't relevant anymore. At least Diablo II still has some fanatics playing it these days,

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Its funny how GTA always disappoints when we overrate it, and now that we were underrating it, it decides to impress
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif

Wind Waker is for sure stronger than Majora's Mask.

I don't know about a doubling - I'd be a bit surprised. But it's possible, the SFF could potentially get bad there. Like usual it's tough to predict the degree of SFF.
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gamefaqscontests.com
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Ya'll are forgetting the rally potential for Diablo, also! If its a close match, Diablo wins it. I guarantee it.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif

Master Chief dominates that pic though. Tomorrow will be interesting though. Is this our first match without a game featured on a Nintendo console or made by Square?
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Oh wow. A 500th post that was actually kinda funny. That's like a first.

Cool, someone liked it. That's all I wanted.
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Is this Osbourne Cox?

5) ...and that sequel tripled it in the GotC-poll, yet we're not taking LoZ:TP > SSBM.

Not yet anyway!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

We're not sure, but I think a case can be made for III being stronger. Many of us thought that San Andreas and GTAIV would make Vice City completely irrelevant. It's not lighting up the polls or anything, but it's going to advance, so it looks like we were wrong. If VC still has strength, why shouldn't III? I don't think being less than a year older is going to matter, and III also has influence on its side. It ain't the series progenitor, but we may as well call it that, and it was the first mega-hit on the PS2.

It won't be fodder, but casuals out number hardcore fans therefore VC > 3 though they might as well be equal to each other.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: KH > GTA: VC Points: 61/84

I think WW has the power to beat up things that people don't really care about. It tripled Skies of Arcadia, defeated Metroid Prime (which is weaker then Vice City) by an unimpressive amount, but then lost to Starcraft when most of the site probably hasn't even played Starcraft.

It's placement on The List and the GotC poll show to me that most people don't think of it as one of their favorite games, which doesn't translate well to 4-ways.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

I checked and the flattest match so far is the Mega Man 2/Pong one - 34.79%-16.54%=18.25%.

I think tomorrow's match has a real good shot at being flatter than that.
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gamefaqscontests.com
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I think tomorrows match is the first match that I loved all 4 games.

Knowing board 8s tastes though, I might be the only one to like all 4 of these games though!
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif

They're all pretty good

GTAIII > Diablo II > KotOR > Halo IMO
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: KH > GTA: VC Points: 61/84

I'll say this: if Morrowind can put up 17% with FFX in the poll, I think KotOR has a good shot to at least match that against these jokers.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.

From: PartOfYourWorld | #022
I'll say this: if Morrowind can put up 17% with FFX in the poll, I think KotOR has a good shot to at least match that against these jokers.

If Halo wasn't there, I'd agree. But the original Xbox fanbase is only so big, and I'd guess most of them would go for Halo.
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif

Yeah, but you have to remember that this poll isn't going to have a Silent Hill 2 only pulling in 9% of the vote as well.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Halo > GTA3 >= SW:KotOR >= D2 for me, though I've barely played GTA3/D2 and think SW:KotOR is decent.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

Knowing board 8s tastes though, I might be the only one to like all 4 of these games though!>

I love the three I've played, and while I doubt I'll try Diablo 2 anytime soon, that old man's quotes really cracked me up.

"Stay a while, and listen!"
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.

I've no idea what's going to happen tomorrow. my gut says that Halo's going to win big, but I just don't know. I want to pick all these games for last.
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg

Bold Statement: If KOTOR gets 17% or more here, Halo doesn't place, since the Xbox Fanbase will be too split.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif

So...I'm not sure if I missed this discussion or not, but have we thought about how much KH affects FFX in R3 if LoZ:WW doesn't make it there? We'd probably have the strongest of tomorrow's games as the fourth game, and Halo or D2 in particular would be really independent and stand out.

Then again, I don't know how much I'd like to take any of tomorrow's games over the likes of MGS2, and this match assumes KH will advance past MGS2 anyway.....
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

Yeah, something like FFX/KH/Melee/Halo wouldn't be good for FFX, but I figure if FFX can survive MGS2 despite Kingdom Hearts, it can survive Halo. I wouldn't figure Halo is much stronger than MGS2, if it is at all.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Final Fantasy X (2004g) VS Halo (2004g)

Final Fantasy X has a strength of 40.55.
Halo has a strength of 40.96.

Halo wins with 50.50% of the vote!
A win of 977 with 97,624 total votes cast.


yay old outdated stats
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif

Yay StarCraft'd stats!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Tomorrow's match may have been the first that I completely botched in my 10 minute bracket. What the hell was I thinking taking Halo > KOTOR? Even with KOTOR's PC base, that advantage is easily taken away by Diablo 2 being there. I think I must have meant to take Halo > Diablo 2... <_<;
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X

I guess the best chance for FFX to be upset in R3 is to have KH go even with FFX while barely beating GTA:VC for second place (don't like) and believe GTA3 > GTA:VC (do like). That, or count on D2 to do in R3 what Starcraft hasn't thus far (don't like, and I have D2 > SSBM in my bracket next round)...

...pretty sure the only way FFX doesn't make it to the finals now is if FF8 escapes its division over MGS and RBY, and even in that scenario we'll see LoZ:OoT/SSBM alongside FFX/FF8 so it's not so guaranteed FFX would lose. FF7 may not be so safe that safe to repeat afterall.....
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

Not Enough Mana

I don't think it matters too much which FF gets there with FFVII. That won't be pretty for whichever one it is.

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Post for the reference.
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AC:WW Code: Name:Mr.378 Town:Darkcity FC: 4210-5769-8462
GENO WHIRL!

I don't mean to suggest either FF8 or FFX gets there -- I like FFX > FF8 both directly and indirectly, so I'll favor FFX to reach the championship before FF8. Pretty sure FF8 is the last chance to keep FFX from reaching FF7 though, and if FFX reaches that match-up then it's gonna be favorable for LoZ:OoT -- even if FF7 destroys it.

Of course, there's the likely situation of either LoZ:LttP or SMB3 making it there too, but LoZ:OoT would still rather FFX make it to the championship than RE4 or especially another Nintendo title.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

FFX was always the favored one to be in the final, I think. Most people went FFX, but still took FFVII to win. That's how I'd expect it to go, because LttP would be worse for OoT than FFX would be for FFVII.

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I'm suspicious about KOTOR's performance in 2004. I think there's a decent chance that it was the benefit of GTA anti-votes. I mean, does anyone think that Kite is high end fodder even in 2003. DK also looked noticeably better against Vercetti than he did in 2002 or 2004.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!

If FFX makes the final, it helps OoT - but it also bodes well for FF, seeing as how it had to get there in the first place (I must sound like a broken record on this point). For something new, though, the optimal situation for FF7 would be FF8 and FFX getting to meet each other and then knocking each other out - proves FF strength beyond the shadow of a doubt, and FF7 doesn't get hindered.

Likewise, the best situation for OoT is that Zelda 1 and LttP meet in the semis, with Zelda 1 bringing LttP down enough to let SMB3 in. A much more likely situation, to be sure, though it bodes less as well.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

A side character from KOTOR is expected to get 38% on Vercetti in 2004, the same year as the two games' match. I don't buy that KOTOR fluked its percentage on VC - dropped off a LOT now compared to then, sure, but not a fluke.
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

Even if it is an Xbox game, it was official Goty in 2003 and an RPG, so I don't see it doing THAT bad on Gamefaqs.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif

By the way, I believe Paper Mario is now doing 5% better on Metroid Prime than PM:TYD did on MP2:E and 13.5% than SPM did on MP3:C according to the GotY-polls. MP is supposed to be the strongest MP-game and PM did terribly way back in the day...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=769

...talk about embarrassing for Metroid and especially so for MP. It really needs to get away from other Nintendo games, granted, but even without them this is poor since KH is beating MP/PM combined with over 2% to spare.


Here's a four-pack we had a lot of fun with around SM/SMK-time...!

Legend of Zelda: Wink Waker
Mario Kart 64
Metroid Prime
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

it's all about the wink waker.
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xyzzy

Even if it is an Xbox game, it was official Goty in 2003 and an RPG, so I don't see it doing THAT bad on Gamefaqs.

Officially the Xbox-GotY, to clarify, which lost to LoZ:WW and FFX-2 in the final-GotY with distance to spare. Still good for an Xbox-game, but it's kinda like how God of War got third place in 2005 -- it was a weak year with a clear choice for first place.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

Likewise, the best situation for OoT is that Zelda 1 and LttP meet in the semis, with Zelda 1 bringing LttP down enough to let SMB3 in. A much more likely situation, to be sure, though it bodes less as well.

I'd lean heavily towards SMB3 hurting OoT worse than LttP, because SMB3 would hold up a lot better. Less overlap would be more than offset by the higher percentage SMB3 would get.
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gamefaqscontests.com
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From: HaRRicH | #046
Even if it is an Xbox game, it was official Goty in 2003 and an RPG, so I don't see it doing THAT bad on Gamefaqs.

Officially the Xbox-GotY, to clarify, which lost to LoZ:WW and FFX-2 in the final-GotY with distance to spare. Still good for an Xbox-game, but it's kinda like how God of War got third place in 2005 -- it was a weak year with a clear choice for first place.

Oh if you're going by the goty polls, yeah. I meant DICE goty, which is recognized as official by the industry.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif

I'll trust Mario holding up to Zelda when I see it. We've at least seen that LttP doesn't get squashed in the Zelda favorite polls, and it's got a ton more overlap (OoT is just a 3D LttP mirite guyz)
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

Anyone else think we will see low votals tomorrow because of this nintendo-less, square-less, Japan-less match?

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Check out my Guru bracket: http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=60