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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 693

Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 4/28/2009 12:52:53 PM | message detail
KH is still gaining here. If it were just VC and MP, it would be destroying the percentage. It's just that Paper Mario is apparently an even more extreme game, it did tank overnight afterall.
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FastFalcon and Solid Snake snapped my neck in the guru contest.
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/28/2009 12:53:21 PM | message detail
Also, in Leon/Riku/Dante/Hogger, Riku had relatively even trends throughout.

I think that was a weekend match though.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/28/2009 12:54:01 PM | message detail
But ROXAS (can't type that without hearing DiZ say it) did pretty good with the ASV last year.

Period | Liquid | Luigi . . | Roxas . | Sho
PHV | 34.01% | 40.00% | 17.21% | 8.78%
FNV | 35.46% | 38.53% | 17.34% | 8.67%
DDZ | 35.99% | 36.72% | 18.86% | 8.43%
MOV | 32.78% | 41.27% | 18.33% | 7.62%
DSV | 34.12% | 40.63% | 17.85% | 7.40%
ASV | 30.64% | 40.38% | 20.96% | 8.02%
EVV | 30.47% | 39.32% | 21.76% | 8.44%
SNV | 32.87% | 37.74% | 20.45% | 8.94%

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/28/2009 12:56:34 PM | message detail
Yeah, like I said. He was the only one to increase % in that match with the ASV and did so by a decent bit.

Although I think being above average isn't good enough. Liquid Snake was present and all and the % bleed had to go somewhere, if Sora was there he'd probably make him his *****
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 12:57:10 PM | message detail
Maybe KH is only really GREAT at asv when its sora.
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FastFalcon05 sure knows how to fill out a better contest bracket than I!
Dragonblight, Dontnerfme: 79 Warlock, 0/17/54
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/28/2009 12:59:43 PM | message detail
That's not true. Axel was incredible with the ASV both times we've seen him.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 1:02:45 PM | message detail
Axel was also against Mega Man in 2006, and Samus/Frog/Kerrigan in 2007.

Hardly day monsters.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 1:05:51 PM | message detail
So first hour of the ASV, GTA: VC gains 100 on MP

I doubt we'll ever see any attempt of a comeback here.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 1:21:24 PM | message detail
Quick theory about the lackluster asv today for KH:

Maybe with the new site design, alot of people are checking out the site at a time they normally won't to see what its about, thus skewing the trends for the ASV?
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ffmasterjose | Posted 4/28/2009 1:26:01 PM | message detail
The last couple of updates (read: the last two I've managed to pay attention to) have been more stall-ish than outright vote gains for Vice City. Come on MP :(
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66/84 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Kingdom Hearts > Metroid Prime | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
charmander6000 | Posted 4/28/2009 1:29:49 PM | message detail
I didn't even know about a site redesign.

KH's ASV is overrated.

Sora's opponents since 2005

Agent 47
Alucard
Solid Snake
Tingle
Gordon Freeman
Mega Man
Lara Croft/Daxter/Wesker
Lara Croft/Aeris/Squall
Sub-Zero/Squall/Sonic
Fox/Chris/CATS
Squall/Yoshi/Fox
Cloud/Squall/Mewtwo

Look at all of his opponent, most are terrible during the ASV.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: KH > GTA: VC Points: 61/84
ffmasterjose | Posted 4/28/2009 1:33:16 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=11&topic=49277131

Do you use your own custom design charmander?

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66/84 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Kingdom Hearts > Metroid Prime | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
charmander6000 | Posted 4/28/2009 1:35:23 PM | message detail
Do you use your own custom design charmander?

Nope. The second I saw the change I went to that topic.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: KH > GTA: VC Points: 61/84
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 1:40:26 PM | message detail
YESSS Paper Mario cut MP!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/28/2009 2:03:24 PM | message detail
Sora killed the ASV against Yoshi and Fox. At the moment, that's enough for me to deem him the ASV King.

Anyway, what bombs tonight? Everything?
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/28/2009 2:05:34 PM | message detail
Nobody bombs, though if there had to be one it would be Diablo II
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: KH > GTA: VC Points: 61/84
GrapefruitKing | Posted 4/28/2009 2:15:25 PM | message detail
KOTOR comes out of nowhere and wins.

no wait... that would mean the best game wins. that's pretty rare
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Today's prediction: Darkness 33.85% - Prime 29.00% - Hawaiian Shirt City 21.78% - Pepper Mario 15.37%
Status: poo
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/28/2009 2:18:12 PM | message detail
KOTOR is the only game that won't bomb, since... I don't think that's possible. No one's really expecting much from it. It's the one in the best position to impress.

Diablo 2 probably has the best chance of bombing, followed by Halo since it's the favorite for first so apparently it has the highest expectations
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
creativename | Posted 4/28/2009 2:18:53 PM | message detail
Metroid Prime bombing worse than the Nawlins Hornets today. (well OK, maybe not *that* bad)

Kingdom Hearts is doing good, but not as great as it's high percentage would make it seem - it'll only 60/40 Vice City which isn't overly impressive. MGS2/Kingdom Hearts is hard to call next round though.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 2:19:25 PM | message detail
Oh **** I just realized what day the Faire I'm going to is on

WoWs match >.< Ugh! Less rallying >.<
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 2:25:04 PM | message detail
wee we're getting minute by minute updates now
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/28/2009 2:53:37 PM | message detail
I hate to see MP here -- it's hard for me to get used to the controls again nowadays, but I remember beating it for the first time and feeling like it was one of the best video game experiences of my life. Man.

I'm taking today to be KH impressing, and I'll be surprised to see it not advance next round. Yes, MP sucks...especially after seeing MP2 beat PM:TYD worse than this. That said, KH is soaring past these games anyway. Nice job.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/28/2009 3:01:27 PM | message detail
Period | Liquid | Luigi . . | Roxas . | Sho
PHV | 34.01% | 40.00% | 17.21% | 8.78%
FNV | 35.46% | 38.53% | 17.34% | 8.67%
DDZ | 35.99% | 36.72% | 18.86% | 8.43%
MOV | 32.78% | 41.27% | 18.33% | 7.62%
DSV | 34.12% | 40.63% | 17.85% | 7.40%
ASV | 30.64% | 40.38% | 20.96% | 8.02%
EVV | 30.47% | 39.32% | 21.76% | 8.44%
SNV | 32.87% | 37.74% | 20.45% | 8.94%


What the hell is the DDZ, MOV, and the EVV?
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/28/2009 3:05:50 PM | message detail
Dead Zone, Morning Vote, Evening Vote I'd imagine.

YOUR ABILITY AT UNDERSTANDING ACRONYMS IS TERRIBLY LOW
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
paulg235 | Posted 4/28/2009 3:07:30 PM | message detail
MOV is supposed to be called BSV.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 3:09:25 PM | message detail
I thought that GTA: VC would win here, but I didn't expect a convincing win like this. It could end up a 2500-2700 win when this is over

way to suck MP
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/28/2009 3:16:45 PM | message detail
You're acting like 2500-2700 votes is a crushing win.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: KH > GTA: VC Points: 61/84
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 3:17:38 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #427
You're acting like 2500-2700 votes is a crushing win.


It is for a match that most people felt VC had no shot to win.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
charmander6000 | Posted 4/28/2009 3:18:55 PM | message detail
Considering you had it winning, your expectations for it couldn't have been so low.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: KH > GTA: VC Points: 61/84
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 3:20:21 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #429
Considering you had it winning, your expectations for it couldn't have been so low.


I figured under 500.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
charmander6000 | Posted 4/28/2009 3:23:13 PM | message detail
Really, you might as well have flipped a coin for that match...

1:00 | 48.42%
2:00 | 50.17%
3:00 | 51.66%
4:00 | 54.75%
5:00 | 56.16%
6:00 | 55.61%
7:00 | 52.83%
8:00 | 52.49%
9:00 | 52.65%
10:00 | 52.08%
11:00 | 52.77%
12:00 | 53.10%
13:00 | 53.62%
14:00 | 55.24%
15:00 | 51.89%
16:00 | 51.84%
17:00 | 52.64%
18:00 | 51.33%

Still going strong.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: KH > GTA: VC Points: 61/84
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 3:23:53 PM | message detail
I kinda did. It was a toss up for me, and I went for Vice City since I'd rather root for a game I like then once I don't. >_>
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/28/2009 3:28:25 PM | message detail
Well I had VC placing next round, so maybe that's why.

Even if FFX SFF KH to the ground MGS2 probably has a better chance at placing.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: KH > GTA: VC Points: 61/84
jonthomson | Posted 4/28/2009 3:31:49 PM | message detail
and the first of my personal top five that qualified goes down. the rest, apart from mario 3, should go next round.
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Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179
Super Metroid's Path To Glory: R2 vs. Super Mario Kart, A Link to the Past, Donkey Kong Country
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/28/2009 3:32:46 PM | message detail
Dead Zone, Morning Vote, Evening Vote I'd imagine.

Well, okay. But what time period does the Dead Zone, Morning Vote, and Evening Vote span? For example, SNV lasts from 22:00 to 24:00 (10:00 PM to 12:00 AM EST).
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 3:33:16 PM | message detail
I think we should change "Dead Zone" to "Europe Vote"
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/28/2009 3:35:46 PM | message detail
Well, okay. But what time period does the Dead Zone, Morning Vote, and Evening Vote span? For example, SNV lasts from 22:00 to 24:00 (10:00 PM to 12:00 AM EST).

I'm not 100% sure since I didn't make it, but I assume about...

Dead Zone - 4am-7am
Morning Vote - 7am-11am
Evening Vote - 7pm-10pm
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: KH > GTA: VC Points: 61/84
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/28/2009 3:37:01 PM | message detail
I think we should change "Dead Zone" to "Europe Vote"

Trying to come up with a 3 letter abbreviation for "Europe Vote" might be hard. EUV anyone?

Oh, and I think "Dead Zone" should be abbreviated as "DZV" (Dead Zone Vote) rather than "DDZ".
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
red sox 777 | Posted 4/28/2009 3:37:35 PM | message detail
Paper Mario is even better with the ASV than Kingdom Hearts? Well, Paper Mario is the best game here, so that's a very good thing!
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/28/2009 3:39:54 PM | message detail
The thing is it's very different on weekdays and weekends. Nintendo characters for example usually begin their weekday morning resurgence at around 6, whereas on weekends the earliest it seems to happen is around 8 AM.
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creativename | Posted 4/28/2009 3:45:09 PM | message detail
Just ditch the acronyms and use the actual hours.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/28/2009 3:45:12 PM | message detail
Dead Zone - 4am-7am
Morning Vote - 7am-11am
Evening Vote - 7pm-10pm


I would say the Dead Zone should be from 4:00 AM to 6:00 AM. It is around 4:00 AM that I remember Punch-Out dropping off (and other games that suck with the Europeans) and Donkey Kong started making a comeback. Since there's a DSV in RPGuy's chart, the morning vote couldn't last from 7:00 AM to 11:00 AM. DSV, if you remember, is from 9:00 AM to 2:30 PM. The morning vote would probably be from 6:00 AM to 9:00 AM, which is better known as the BSV. Evening Vote seems about right as to what I was thinking.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
charmander6000 | Posted 4/28/2009 3:49:37 PM | message detail
The cut off for the morning vote being at 9 seems wrong since only Eastern NA is in school while the rest is still waking up.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: KH > GTA: VC Points: 61/84
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/28/2009 3:51:56 PM | message detail
The two Nintendo games are under 37%. This is definitely the big N's most pathetic match of the contest.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/28/2009 3:57:58 PM | message detail
Wow, Vice City winning?

I hate this contest.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/28/2009 3:59:11 PM | message detail
Well, this is the first new Nintendo (meaning GC and later) match we've seen. N64 seems to be enough wrapped in nostalgia that it's shifted to the old Nintendo category now. But this match itself doesn't prove much about new Nintendo- we've never seen Paper Mario before, and there really was no good reason to believe that Prime was strong. I'm not saying it was certain that it would flop, but we had little data on it either way, and most of the arguments for Prime seemed to me to consist of personal expecations.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 4:00:15 PM | message detail
lets get some FF12 > HL2 with TP flopping
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 4/28/2009 4:04:30 PM | message detail
I think I know what gave Kingdom Hearts such a massive boost:








Mickey kicking the **** out of Joe Jonas
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 4/28/2009 4:06:10 PM | message detail
Heres the proof:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0Hr_2bRsY4
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/28/2009 4:13:55 PM | message detail
Axel was also against Mega Man in 2006, and Samus/Frog/Kerrigan in 2007.

Hardly day monsters.


It's not necessarily his opponents, and it's the same with Sora. The percentage gains are far more than you'd expect by any character, even if the day vote is bad, which is exactly why we take notice of it. A bad day vote only loses you so much. I mean, we could say the same thing about MC's day vote power. I mean, Crono and Frog aren't the greatest day vote characters by any means. It's just the fact that he gained so much percentage.

Mega Man and Samus aren't BAD with the day vote by any means, by the way.
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