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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 693

paulg235 | Posted 4/28/2009 12:47:43 AM | message detail
I would have never imagined that a 6 year old poll result would hold fairly true even today:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1134

Metroid Prime barely beat Vice City and now it looks like Vice City could get its revenge for what happened back then.


LOL VC's revenge more like KH's revenge.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/28/2009 12:49:20 AM | message detail
Ha, KH went from getting doubled by MP to.....maybe not so far from doubling it by the time the ASV is through today.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/28/2009 12:49:51 AM | message detail
I'm not sure what was up with Kingdom Hearts sucking bad then, but since that poll, Square got a big boost plus the release of Kingdom Hearts II also boosted Kingdom Hearts itself.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 4/28/2009 12:51:36 AM | message detail
Id say its because of the Chocobo Mafia
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/28/2009 12:52:07 AM | message detail
Dumb question, but can't Prime recover in the morning the same way Samus did against Tifa?
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/28/2009 12:52:52 AM | message detail
Prime needs to recover more than Samus did to win this match. Tifa didn't take the lead until around 6 AM and had almost no time to build a lead before morning hit.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 12:52:59 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #155
Dumb question, but can't Prime recover in the morning the same way Samus did against Tifa?


It probably can, but its just a matter of how big of a lead VC will have by then.
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ZFS | Posted 4/28/2009 12:53:28 AM | message detail
Super Metroid went even with Mario Kart during the day? Might have a good shot at coming back here, then. Gotta see how this goes.

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ZFS | Posted 4/28/2009 12:55:21 AM | message detail
Well, maybe not if GTA rocks Metroid for a few hours. Nearly up 100 already.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 12:56:38 AM | message detail
Over 100 after that last update. Metroid is gonna be in for a world of hurt these next couple hours it seems
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Smurf Alt | Posted 4/28/2009 12:57:34 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=49256291&message=539886199

heh, exactly as I predicted. ^_~
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 12:58:09 AM | message detail

From: Smurf Alt | #161
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=49256291&message=539886199


Except with the part that MP wins.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/28/2009 12:58:17 AM | message detail
Super Metroid went even with Mario Kart during the day?

Super Metroid barely won the ASV over Mario Kart. It had a lead of 34 at the start of the ASV and had a lead of 66 at the end ot the ASV.
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Smurf Alt | Posted 4/28/2009 1:01:11 AM | message detail
MP probably will win.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/28/2009 1:02:28 AM | message detail
1:00 | 51.58%
2:00 | 49.83%
3:00 | 48.34%
4:00 | 45.25%

Looks like VC will get getting a 57% hour tonight!
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/28/2009 1:07:23 AM | message detail
I mean, will be getting, rather. Why do I continually make typos these days?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 1:15:10 AM | message detail
So anyone feel GTA3 might advance tomorrow with Halo/Kotor sffing the Xbox vote?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/28/2009 1:33:15 AM | message detail
I think so. I'm expecting GTAIII to be stronger than Vice City, and I'm also thinking we'll see some Halo/KotOR overlap. Seriously, KotOR is the one non-Halo Xbox game that matters, so there should be some kind of split there. On top of that, Halo can just bomb.
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ZFS | Posted 4/28/2009 1:35:48 AM | message detail
I have no idea what to even think about tomorrow's match. Anything could advance there and I wouldn't be surprised.

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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 4/28/2009 1:37:38 AM | message detail
Ima go with Big D and the game that made me have my 1st all nighter.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 4/28/2009 1:44:08 AM | message detail
NNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

At least Final Fantasy Tactics being gone doesn't make this as bad as it could be.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/28/2009 1:49:36 AM | message detail
If KotOR advances tomorrow, I won't care if Bacon replaces the rest of the bracket with EA annual sports titles. I'll still be happy.
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Chaotic Mind | Posted 4/28/2009 1:57:44 AM | message detail
If KotOR advances tomorrow, I won't care if Bacon replaces the rest of the bracket with EA annual sports titles. I'll still be happy.

Heh, same here ^5
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Mr3790 | Posted 4/28/2009 2:31:18 AM | message detail
Damn gta...
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/28/2009 2:50:33 AM | message detail
Ouch, MP.

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transience | Posted 4/28/2009 2:54:05 AM | message detail
hmm.. this should be close.

Super Metroid sucked it up during this time against Mario Kart, but rebounded nicely in the daytime and with the Europe vote. meanwhile, Vice City had an *awesome* night vote against Melee and lost the day vote bigtime:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=1648&type=0&seconds=60&max=0

this all adds up to GTA having a good night vote and bad day vote while Metroid has an awful overnight vote and a decent day vote -- ultimately, this should come down to if Prime can recover during the during-school vote and can win the day vote over GTA. I think it can do that, but it depends on by how much. GTA looks like it's gonna be up 500 votes going into the morning vote, and I'm not convinced it's going to have a bad day vote; Metroid ain't Melee.
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superCP | Posted 4/28/2009 3:42:00 AM | message detail
with paper mario and FREAKIN´ KINGDOM HEARTS in the poll, i dont think MP can profit that much from the ASV...

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AmazingKirby | Posted 4/28/2009 3:58:49 AM | message detail
KH losing the Before School Vote!? What is this!?
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Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/28/2009 4:00:06 AM | message detail
jeez Vice City nearly cut KH twice now.
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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 4/28/2009 4:31:13 AM | message detail
Here comes Prime!
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Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/28/2009 5:04:36 AM | message detail
Vice City still gaining with the before school vote, it'll be over 700 next update. I'm inclined to think it'll have done enough before the ASV.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/28/2009 5:38:16 AM | message detail
KH losing the Before School Vote!? What is this!?

KH doesn't really start taking off until the ASV. Heck, Pokemon games lost the morning vote and destroyed the ASV. Halo will probably do the same thing. It could still nab 40% here. Prime's not dead yet, but it won't be making a huge ASV comeback. It needs to stop the bleeding soon.

And I'm not even really that surprised that Kingdom Hearts is winning big even though I called for a close match. I AM surprised that it's beating Prime and Paper Mario combined. Yep, Wind Waker's probably in for a world of hurt in a few days. I do wonder just how strong Melee is, too, though because it's possible that 128's overratedness is related to its match against FFVII. Eh, it should be fine because of Smash's general increase since 2004.
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Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/28/2009 5:40:22 AM | message detail
Brawl wasn't far from losing to both MGS4 and Fallout 3 in the Game of the Year polls, I don't think either Smash game is going to get out of this contest without disappointing relative to expectations.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/28/2009 5:41:39 AM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | FFX | MGS2 | Silent Hill 2 | Morrowind | Demographic
EBV | 44.41% | 31.37% | 8.74% | 15.48% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 44.38% | 29.83% | 8.83% | 16.96% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 45.71% | 27.83% | 9.70% | 16.76% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 47.45% | 26.91% | 8.90% | 16.74% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 45.84% | 27.51% | 9.40% | 17.24% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 45.87% | 27.97% | 8.46% | 17.69% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 46.86% | 27.01% | 9.23% | 16.89% | (22:00-24:00)

Trends are relatively even throughout this match. FFX does its best work during the early morning hours, just like FFVIII and FFIX did the days before. Kinda strange there. MGS2 has a Power Hour, apparently. Relatively even trends throughout so it doesn't seem to have a bad day vote, for whatever the reason. Silent Hill 2 is a night game, as you'd expect. Morrowind does best during the day, but not overwhelmingly so.

Yesterday's stats:

Final Fantasy X – 50.00%
Metal Gear Solid 2 – 37.74%
Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind – 27.26%
Silent Hill 2 – 16.43%

Morrowind = Shenmue
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/28/2009 5:44:52 AM | message detail
Looks like VC has this one if it's still gaining 100+ votes an hour during the morning vote. MP will need a very impressive ASV to turn this around.
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Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/28/2009 5:50:15 AM | message detail
810 votes up, this is over.
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Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/28/2009 5:54:06 AM | message detail
hmmm, I wonder if MGS2 and Vice City will split the fanbase enough to allow Kingdom Hearts through next round. KH has shown to have a large enough standalone base to survive against Final Fantasy and MGS2 wasn't exactly impressive without Vice City there to hurt it.
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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 4/28/2009 5:55:19 AM | message detail
Am I wrong for thinking Halo 2 might do pretty well?
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/28/2009 5:58:38 AM | message detail
*Wakes up*

Yes, Vice City in the lead. Now let's see GTAIII do something tomorrow.

Kingdom Hearts is doing great though, I guess it'll be the favourite for second next round.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: KH > GTA: VC Points: 61/84
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/28/2009 5:58:44 AM | message detail
Right now, I'd call FFX and KH the favorites to advance because they're winning by so much that I doubt a split is going to push them down too far to lose.

Uhhh...MGS2 or Vice City, who you got? KH has about 60% on Vice City right now, by the way.
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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 4/28/2009 6:03:04 AM | message detail
Vice City > MGS2
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/28/2009 6:07:13 AM | message detail
So KH >= FFX then?
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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 4/28/2009 6:08:59 AM | message detail
Halo 2
MGS3
Okami
WoW

Who ya got? I have have Halo 2 > MGS3 in my bracket, but I think it's gonna be Halo 2 > WoW.
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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 4/28/2009 6:09:49 AM | message detail
And honestly, I'm seeing FFX > VC next round.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/28/2009 6:10:12 AM | message detail
MGS3 > Halo 2

Still confident in that.
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Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/28/2009 6:11:34 AM | message detail
Vice City did better on the same opponent last time but their series has gone in opposite directions on GF since then. MGS2 will probably be closer to KH than it is to VC. FFX to win and win well.
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Solid_Mike86 | Posted 4/28/2009 6:12:59 AM | message detail
I'm really hoping Halo 2 does well. I think it has the "potential" to do better than any other Halo because it was the first Halo game to have XBL.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/28/2009 6:14:18 AM | message detail
Eh, can't see any game but the original being the strongest, personally, but maybe I'm wrong.
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Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/28/2009 6:16:42 AM | message detail

From: Solid_Mike86 | #193
Halo 2
MGS3
Okami
WoW

Who ya got? I have have Halo 2 > MGS3 in my bracket, but I think it's gonna be Halo 2 > WoW.


Halo seems to have become an anti-vote magnet on the site again, I wouldn't have any faith in it doing well this year. It's probably capable of losing to all of the above but if it will or not is another issue. Okami is too cult, I don't see it placing. My gut says MGS3 > WoW but WoW and Halo are so erratic you never know where they'll end up.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/28/2009 6:17:06 AM | message detail
I personally expect WoW to flop and come in third, though the consensus is MGS3 > WoW > Halo 2.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: KH > GTA: VC Points: 61/84