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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 693

draarrowgant | Posted 4/28/2009 4:17:17 PM | message detail
Since this morning big gainers have been KH and PM.... go figure! Good race nonetheless. Glad to see MP get the boot. Should make the contest a little more interesting.

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/28/2009 4:17:30 PM | message detail
The cut off for the morning vote being at 9 seems wrong since only Eastern NA is in school while the rest is still waking up.

By 9:00 AM, the EST, CST, and MST timezones are already in school, so it's only the PST timezone (the west coast) that is still able to vote in the poll.

The way high school used to work for me was that I'd leave at around 6:30 AM EST to get on the bus and the actual school day would already be in progress by 7:30 AM. At 6:00 AM (the start of the morning vote), generally only the east coast kiddies would be capable of voting in the poll. But around 9:00 AM (the end of the morning vote), it is generally the west coast kiddies voting in the poll since it would be 6:00 AM over there for them. So I think the morning vote should still be 6:00 AM to 9:00 AM. That was the established time period set for the BSV (morning vote), as mentioned here:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 4:19:18 PM | message detail
By 9:00 AM, the EST, CST, and MST timezones are already in school, so it's only the PST timezone (the west coast) that is still able to vote in the poll.

Most schools start at 8:30. Only EST is in school by then.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/28/2009 4:23:01 PM | message detail
Yeah, I've been to 8 different schools in my life and they all started between 7:00 and 7:30
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 4/28/2009 4:23:52 PM | message detail
Most schools start at 8:30. Only EST is in school by then.

What Schools did you go to
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 4:27:32 PM | message detail

From: Shoenin_Kakashi | #455
Most schools start at 8:30. Only EST is in school by then.

What Schools did you go to


Baltimore County Public School System
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/28/2009 4:28:44 PM | message detail
High School begins at 9 guys...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: KH > GTA: VC Points: 61/84
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/28/2009 4:29:17 PM | message detail
What. When I was in High School, I started at 7:30.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 4:29:52 PM | message detail
-shrug- maybe its different in different states. In Maryland, it was always 8:30 for me.
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draarrowgant | Posted 4/28/2009 4:31:41 PM | message detail
What time are the kiddies getting to school or when do classes start


I had block and class started at 8:15- 3 clases a day each 1:50 minutes long. (90's)

My niece and nephews are now in school in Vegas. They get droppeded off at 7:15 and classes start at 7:50.

My brother goes to school now and doesnt start till 8:30- but he gets a 30 minute lunch.

Pretty soon this will start becoming irrelevant as the kiddies get wifi at their school and these contests will be over by the time the adults get home from work in PST....

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/28/2009 4:32:06 PM | message detail
I'd like for a school to start at 8:30 though. Having to get up at 5:15 each morning sucks
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 4/28/2009 4:32:45 PM | message detail
I'm predicting we don't get the match pic for a while because Bacon it caught up in "more important things" like making the site a lot worse.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/28/2009 4:34:03 PM | message detail
Well in Canada school starts between 8:30 and 9.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: KH > GTA: VC Points: 61/84
HaRRicH | Posted 4/28/2009 4:41:24 PM | message detail
I hope the acronyms aren't changed -- I like what Leonhart's done with that format. By the hour is a nice format too, but for summing up general trends, I think we've mostly covered it already with Leonhart's. If you need more specific, do it by the hour or just look at the graph. The only addition I'd care to see is a dead-zone vote, but I'm plenty comfortable with how it is now. It's not meant to be broken down into lots of smaller sections aside from the first hour.
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AmazingKirby | Posted 4/28/2009 4:44:10 PM | message detail
Whether schools are in different states, different towns, or a block away, they all have different start times. Everyone I know starts school at a different time.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/28/2009 4:48:28 PM | message detail
Oh man, Paper Mario finished 2nd in an update a little while ago! Awesome!

KH is looking like it'll probably finish around 38.5% here.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/28/2009 4:59:03 PM | message detail
By the way, should Prime's performance here make us feel even worse about Half-Life 2's chances here in a few days?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/28/2009 5:04:41 PM | message detail
Why would it make a difference? Half-Life already bombed worse than this.

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charmander6000 | Posted 4/28/2009 5:06:51 PM | message detail
Match XXIII: Diablo II: Lord of Destruction vs. Grand Theft Auto III vs. Halo: Combat Evolved vs. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic

Information:

Name: Diablo II: Lord of Destruction
Year: 2001
System: PC
2004 Performance: Did not enter

Name: Grand Theft Auto III
Year: 2001
System: PS2
2004 Performance: Did not enter

Name: Halo: Combat Evolved
Year: 2001
System: Xbox
2004 Performance: 49.83% against Starcraft

Name: Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
Year: 2003
System: Xbox
2004 Performance: 39.68% against GTA: Vice City

Analysis

What’s this? Two hyped matches in a row? I guess we deserve it since the next match is going to be a bore. Continuing our 128-bit division reunion we have Diablo II playing as Starcraft and special guest Grand Theft Auto III. Starcraft/Halo was the biggest match of the previous contest, but is the same true five years later or has some games aged better than others?

It’s a shame that Star Wars was stuck against probably its worst opponent. Knights Star Wars was one of the most popular Xbox games, but one of the few games that are more popular is Halo. Still had Halo not been in this match I don’t think Star Wars would have won unless one of these game flops badly. The 2004 contest was barely a year after the release of Star Wars and out of the games in this division I expect it to have aged the worst. Still compare to the fourth place finishers in this bracket it won’t be utterly crushed.

In 2004 Halo and Xbox were the most hated things on GameFAQs besides Pokemon. Since then like Pokemon Halo and Xbox has become more respected and tolerable by the GameFAQs public. Also Halo’s competition isn’t exactly tough, it took weeks to prepare for the massive rally that Starcraft had to beat Halo, something I don’t see Diablo II doing and the Grand Theft Auto series has been on a downward spiral. Halo won’t win in a landslide, but I do think it has enough strength to stay in front of its competition.

Ever since Starcraft’s run in 2004 Diablo II has been hyped to have been a massive snub, well it’s here now, but how well does it perform? I’ve always thought Diablo II was more or less equal with Starcraft giving the slight edge to Starcraft and I still stand by my prediction. Starcraft’s performance a few matches ago were not up to its 2004 performance, but no one was expecting that. Diablo II still has a huge range and it could place anywhere from first to third, but with PC games doing terrible so far a lower placing seems more likely.
charmander6000 | Posted 4/28/2009 5:07:02 PM | message detail
Grand Theft Auto III is my favourite game on the Playstation 2 and was the game that got me and many people hooked on the series. Grand Theft Auto III was always the outside favourite basically placing if one of Halo or Diablo II flops, but with Vice City’s performance people are giving it a chance at placing based on its own strengths. While I’m happy to see this support Vice City isn’t really showing off its strength; Kingdom Hearts is currently winning 60/40, which is far from impressive. Unless Diablo II flops I don’t see Grand Theft Auto III advancing. As for which game is stronger, among fans it’s Grand Theft Auto III, but like Pokemon G/S/C the casual fans outnumber the hardcore fans thus Vice City will probably look stronger.

I find it interesting that the Grand Theft Auto series could potentially bring each game from their series to the second round. The only other series that are capable of doing that (must have at least 3 games in the contest) are Zelda, Metal Gear and potentially Halo and Pokemon. It may just be a dream, but to see a series that seemed to have died out on GameFAQs perform such a task is a sight to see. Realistically Halo and Diablo II should advance with Grand Theft Auto III keeping close.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Halo: Combat Evolved > Diablo II: Lord of Destruction

charmander6000’s Prediction: Halo – 31.42%, Diablo II – 28.53%, Grand Theft Auto III – 25.42%, Star Wars: KotOR – 14.63%
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BGE2 - Today's Match: KH > GTA: VC Points: 61/84
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/28/2009 5:09:24 PM | message detail
Why would it make a difference? Half-Life already bombed worse than this.

Yeah, but the fact that Prime bombed makes Half-Life seem even worse in my opinion.

...Wonder what Melee's gonna do to Wind Waker here in a couple of days.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/28/2009 5:09:35 PM | message detail
Eh...certainly doesn't bode well for HL2, though it's not as relevant as HL getting smoked by FF9 despite CC. Without knowing how much stronger HL2 is than HL, that's really the best thing we can go with. That match alone nearly assures me LoZ:TP > FF12.
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Prototype
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 5:10:12 PM | message detail
Pretty exciting match tonight. Might be able to try out my rallying for the first time in a close match ;)
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/28/2009 5:10:41 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: SSBM doubles LoZ:WW!
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 5:11:27 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #474
BOLD PREDICTION: SSBM doubles LoZ:WW!


more like conservative prediction
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/28/2009 5:11:54 PM | message detail
Well, if you say that HL2 would 60-40 HL, and that FFIX would 60-40 FFXII, then HL2 takes it easily.

Just saying. I think it's still up in the air.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/28/2009 5:12:25 PM | message detail
I think Melee doubling WW is going too high for WW.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/28/2009 5:13:03 PM | message detail
If GTAIII is stronger than Vice City like I'm thinking it will be, and if today's entrants have more combined strength (I can't imagine Halo giving this beefy looking Kingdom Hearts a fight), then III should be good for at least the 25% that VC has here. Looking at the way Starcraft and Half-Life have performed, that could easily be enough to make it through unless Diablo decides to show us its A game.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 5:13:51 PM | message detail
Honestly, I can see SSBM getting like 55% there.

SSBM: 55%
Wind Waker: 22%
Fire Emblem: 12%
Disgaea: 11%
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/28/2009 5:15:55 PM | message detail
I still think Halo gets first place tomorrow. Second place is up for grabs to me though.

And Melee doubling Wind Waker? I'm not sure if you guys are serious or not...
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/28/2009 5:16:29 PM | message detail
For all the talk of Majora's Mask bombing and Pokemon being a possible Top 10er, Zelda still didn't get doubled. I think asking for 70/30 against (what should be) a stronger Zelda game is asking too much of Melee.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/28/2009 5:16:51 PM | message detail
As much as I hate it VC > 3 in terms of contest strength though both aren't far off from each other.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: KH > GTA: VC Points: 61/84
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 5:17:25 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #480
I still think Halo gets first place tomorrow. Second place is up for grabs to me though.

And Melee doubling Wind Waker? I'm not sure if you guys are serious or not...


Halo is safe pick for 1st, but I think any of the big 3 can get first. KOTOR is guaranteed 4th, but may hurt Halo a bit with the Xbox crowd, that could knock Halo out of first.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/28/2009 5:17:37 PM | message detail
I'm not convinced FF9 indirectly 60-40's any FF-game though; FFX only doubled FFTA in 2004, and that was head-to-head. Besides, FF9 with CC in the poll can't be too much higher than FF12 by itself. I'm also only trusting HL2 to 60-40 HL head-to-head...not necessarily directly. HL2 will be bigger, sure, but man, HL and most other PC games haven't given me any confidence in HL2 yet. It'll have to really rely on its new console presence and Orange Box...but if it becomes a battle of consoles, FF12 will take it.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/28/2009 5:17:50 PM | message detail
Wind Waker is a stronger Zelda game? Need I remind you that it got 55% against the Metroid Prime that is now losing to Vice City? And then proceeded to lose to Starcraft? And that 4% in the GotC poll? I have very low expectations for WW.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 5:18:07 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #481
For all the talk of Majora's Mask bombing and Pokemon being a possible Top 10er, Zelda still didn't get doubled. I think asking for 70/30 against (what should be) a stronger Zelda game is asking too much of Melee.


I see it getting doubled or more because its a strong Nintendo all-star game versus a weak Zelda game. It'll be a massive SFF beat down.
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creativename | Posted 4/28/2009 5:18:45 PM | message detail
Thing about tommorow's match is, FF8 60/40'd Starcraft - but I'd expect it to 60/40 Halo as well. FF8 is way stronger than Halo.

So if Diablo II=Starcraft, it still has a shot here.

I also think that GTA3 and Star Wars will do better than expected.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/28/2009 5:19:04 PM | message detail
I'm not so sure KOTOR is a guaranteed 4th. It got 40% on Vice City back when Vice City was getting 46.5% on Melee. That's pretty good.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 5:19:47 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #488
I'm not so sure KOTOR is a guaranteed 4th. It got 40% on Vice City back when Vice City was getting 46.5% on Melee. That's pretty good.


Well, its got strength, but its stuck with the biggest Xbox exclusive, killing any chance it woulda had.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/28/2009 5:21:07 PM | message detail
Wind Waker is a stronger Zelda game? Need I remind you that it got 55% against the Metroid Prime that is now losing to Vice City? And then proceeded to lose to Starcraft? And that 4% in the GotC poll? I have very low expectations for WW.

The 4% in the GOTC poll can easily be explained by Twilight Princess's presence. It would've at least beaten Prime if not for TP being there! Not that it's worth much!

I still take Wind Waker over Majora's Mask though. I don't see any reason not to until I see it in action.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/28/2009 5:22:46 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bge09/bge09-23.jpg
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 4/28/2009 5:24:06 PM | message detail
c/p from the other topic:


oh crap

he picked the GTAIII I submitted by accident

FFFFFFFFFFFFFF

apologies in advance. I didn't have thumbnails on and clicked that when I wanted to submit this:

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/430/gtaiii3bevel.png

my stupid mistake made GTAIII look ugly

gah

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creativename | Posted 4/28/2009 5:24:56 PM | message detail
I don't know if there's really much overlap between Knights and Halo despite them being on the same console. I guess if 1st place is close (which I think it very well might be) then maybe Knights could've cost it 1st.

If Knights does hurt it even GTA3 might have a shot at 1st.

I think this will be a relatively flat match - I see it having the lowest 1st-4th place difference so far. What's been the flattest match up to this point?

I'm not convinced FF9 indirectly 60-40's any FF-game though

Yeah the difference shouldn't be that big. Most of the FF games probably aren't that far apart in strength.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/28/2009 5:25:29 PM | message detail
As much as I hate it VC > 3 in terms of contest strength though both aren't far off from each other.

We're not sure, but I think a case can be made for III being stronger. Many of us thought that San Andreas and GTAIV would make Vice City completely irrelevant. It's not lighting up the polls or anything, but it's going to advance, so it looks like we were wrong. If VC still has strength, why shouldn't III? I don't think being less than a year older is going to matter, and III also has influence on its side. It ain't the series progenitor, but we may as well call it that, and it was the first mega-hit on the PS2.

Wind Waker is a stronger Zelda game?

I guess it could be weaker than Majora, but it has some points on its side. It released relatively early into the Cube's life and has more impressive sales than MM. It's also the only Zelda game on its console, as most will agree that TP is essentially a Wii game. However, I'm also assuming it shouldn't be weaker than MM because it would be preposterous for a Zelda game to be that pathetic. The 2004 results are irrelevant, though. Judging by anything we've seen over the past three weeks, Kingdom Hearts should be failing miserably right now, but it isn't. We're still not sure how strong Wind Waker will be, and we probably won't get a good clue due to all the SFF.
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creativename | Posted 4/28/2009 5:26:05 PM | message detail
Piccolo is in Diablo 2!?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/28/2009 5:26:37 PM | message detail
Mega Man 2/Pac-Man/Oregon Trail/Pong - 34.79% for MM2 and 16.54% for Pong
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ZFS | Posted 4/28/2009 5:26:43 PM | message detail
I'm not so sure KOTOR is a guaranteed 4th. It got 40% on Vice City back when Vice City was getting 46.5% on Melee. That's pretty good.

My thing about KOTOR is that back in 2k4 was the 'peak' of its popularity, back when it was coming off of all those GOTY awards and hype. I don't think it's managed to stick around long enough to be relevant against this group, but maybe it can surprise.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/28/2009 5:26:44 PM | message detail
Chief wins.

"Damn this contest."
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Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/28/2009 5:26:49 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Chinballz | Posted 4/28/2009 5:26:52 PM | message detail
[This topic was closed at the request of the 500th poster]