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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 692

ZenOfThunder | Posted 4/27/2009 7:35:30 PM | message detail
I have a program that refreshes the page every 5 seconds. I keep the URL open in another tab and when I see the title and icon of the tab change I jump on it.
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/27/2009 7:36:03 PM | message detail
And the site doesn't block you for that?
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: FFX > MGS2 - Points: 55/80 Vote: MGS2
ZenOfThunder | Posted 4/27/2009 7:37:09 PM | message detail
....No. Why would it? Is there some weird Bizarro worlds where sites block people from refreshing?
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/27/2009 7:38:04 PM | message detail
There are sites that block you from refreshing to rapidly due to drain on bandwidth. Well, not a permanent ban just kind of like a 30 second ban
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/27/2009 7:38:10 PM | message detail
I've just gotten my ID blocked through bad http requests or something like that. Maybe I'm the only one.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: FFX > MGS2 - Points: 55/80 Vote: MGS2
ChinballWizards | Posted 4/27/2009 8:00:14 PM | message detail
glad to see FFX kicking ass and taking names here. don't know what I was thinking tomorrow with MP > Vice City in my bracket. No way KH doesn't place.

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ballin on dem chins
all hail ec your lord and savior
ZenOfThunder | Posted 4/27/2009 8:26:58 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
PegasusLover123 | Posted 4/27/2009 8:31:36 PM | message detail
Well i hope this matchup turns out interesting compared to the dull one we just had.

Paper Mario may seem like a wildcard but it aint no Super Mario RPG so i doubt its gonna drop Metroid Prime out of contention (might knock it out of first place though).

Now Kingdom Hearts is a tricky one here. We've seen it flop but we've also seen it blaze through the competition too. However, the game is quite memorable so to me it has a good chance of taking 1st here unless theres some sort of mass hatred that i'm unaware of.

I was never a fan of the Grand Theft Auto series so i have no idea of how its gonna perform though the board seems to imply it could shove Metroid Prime out of contention due to Mario's presence in this match.

But imo Paper Mario is the black sheep of the series, i very well doubt he'll sabotage Metroid enough to stop it from advancing.


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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
Master Moltar | Posted 4/27/2009 8:46:45 PM | message detail
Division 6: Round 1 - Match 22 – Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs. Kingdom Hearts vs. Metroid Prime vs. Paper Mario

Moltar’s Analysis

GTA: VC
2004 Results: Won in Round 1 against Star Wars: KOTOR
Lost in Round 2 against Super Smash Bros. Melee

Let’s see that Hawaiian shirt save you now!

Kingdom Hearts
2004 Results: Won in Round 1 against Soul Calibur
Lost in Round 2 against Starcraft

Kingdom HEARTSSSSSSSS

Metroid Prime
2004 Results: Won in Round 1 against Half-Life
Lost in Round 2 against Zelda: Wind Waker

Is it really the strongest game in the Metroid series?

Paper Mario
2004 Results: N/A

2D Mario…yeah it works.

Woo let’s do some “now useless 2004 comparisons”. Hell, we have games in 3 out of 4 of the games that lost their Round 2 matches in the Division, might as well, right?

KH lost in Round 2 to Starcraft, and looking at its match with FF8, let’s just say with the way KH has increased on the site, KH would easily take that today. After that, Prime lost in a 55-45 affair to Wind Waker. The jury is still out on WW, but SSB:M won’t be kind to it. After that, Vice City lost to Melee in a fairly close match.

So 2004 puts all these games (and about 50 others damn you Div 128) on the same level. However, things have changed since then. GTA has gone down, and KH has gone up. Metroid has probably gone up a bit as well. These three games are the ones with the best chances of advancing. Sorry Paper Mario, but this is out of your league.

The order the games advance here is tough though. Overall, KH has the best chance of advancing to me, followed by MP (even with Paper Mario here. I don’t think it hurts MP much, if at all), and coming in last (ignoring PM) is Vice City. KH has looked stronger and stronger on GameFAQs year after year. I like it’s chances to take first here the most but…

I’m going to be selfish and immature and unprofessional and stick with my bracket and favorite GO PRIME!

Moltar’s Bracket Says: MP > KH

Moltar’s Prediction is: Metroid Prime: 33% - KH: 32% - Vice City: 22% - Paper Mario: 13%



Lopen’s Analysis

This is the first match in the bracket where I could see any combination of the four entrants advancing (well maybe Metroid Prime/Paper Mario would be a stretch).

Vice City shouldn't be underestimated, here. Yes, GTA chokes in every contest situation. People claim “oh people point to the GotY polls every time!” Well, here's the difference-- this isn't taking the games and mapping it onto the series or taking the games and mapping it to a character. This is taking the GAMES performances, and saying the GAMES will do well. There are no logical leaps whatsoever.

All that being said... I'm betting on Kingdom Hearts and Metroid Prime. Final Fantasy (should extend to KH) and Nintendo have been dominating, and I see no reason to bet against them against what should probably be the weakest GTA (cept maybe 4) game. I'm just sayin don't count GTA out in the future!

Lopen's prediction:
Kingdom Hearts – 30.00%
Metroid Prime – 26.67%
GTA: Vice City – 23.33%
Paper Mario – 20.00%



Transience’s Analysis

This match is weird and unpredictable, from top to bottom. I guess I should talk about each game:

Grand Theft Auto: Vice City: VC outperformed MGS2 in 2004, putting up a really nice percentage on SSBM. Time has not been kind of GTA though: Vercetti dropping off a cliff, GTA losing to Warcraft in 2006, GTA4 getting trashed by Fallout 3 in the GOTY poll. But will any of these actually affect Vice City?
Master Moltar | Posted 4/27/2009 8:47:18 PM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts: Kingdom Hearts was one of the most overrated games in 2004's contest: people expected big things, but it needed a day vote to defeat Soul Calibur and never really challenged Starcraft. Both of these games got absolutely rocked by FF8 the other day.

But here's the thing - since 2004, KH has gone from being overrated to being about where it belongs. Sora has gone from getting doubled by Aeris to beating her easily. Halo had a better performance on Starcraft than KH did, yet KH beat Castlevania in the Series Contest while Halo bombed. KH also put up a pretty respectable number on the Metal Gear series. I don't think I'd put it in the FF8/FF10 class, but it's probably right there with FF9 - a decent mid-tier game that won't flop and has the full support of the Square fanbase in this fourpack, not to mention the "kiddie" vote.

Metroid Prime: This is a tough one to judge. On the one hand, Super Metroid needed all it could give to beat Super Mario Kart and Half-Life, Metroid Prime's one victory, flopped against FF9 a couple days ago. On the other hand, Prime is a game that has aged well and has a lot of loyal fans. I would say that Prime's fanbase likes it more than KH's does. There's just one problem:

Paper Mario: Oh no, it's another Mario title to ruin Metroid. But I don't think this one has much bite to it at all - released at the end of the n64's lifetime, Paper Mario is even more of an overthought than Majora's Mask was, and we saw how that did. We also haven't seen much in terms of Nintendo overlap, and these two games are about as separated as you can get: RPG vs. platformer, different consoles. There's also a poll showing Metroid Prime 2 doubling Paper Mario 2 for Gamecube GOTY. It's tough to expect much out of Paper Mario.

As for the match, there's two games that you'd expect to not do well: Vice City and Paper Mario. Vice City is past its prime and Paper Mario never really had a prime.

The real prime here is Metroid Prime, and you'd expect it to do pretty well.. but I don't think it can stand up to KH. This is one that's tough to really rationalize or talk about, but I just feel like KH is stronger and better known than Metroid is on this website. Prime should do well, but KH takes first.

Paper Mario
not gonna touch Metroid Prime
GTA still bombs

transience's prediction:

Kingdom Hearts - 36%
Metroid Prime - 31%
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 21%
Paper Mario - 12%



Leon’s Analysis

Grand Theft Auto: Vice City: Has any series fallen off the map quite like Grand Theft Auto? Hold this match back in 2004, and Vice City probably wins easily. After all, it got 46.5% on SSBM back then, noticeably better than MGS2. Since the Nintendo site shift, we’ve seen Liquid quadruple Tenpenny, CJ lose to Ness, Vercetti nearly lose to Kefka, GTA lose to Warcraft, Vercetti get destroyed in 2007, and Niko barely beat Kefka in 2008. That’s hardly encouraging. I’m not going to discount Vice City completely, but I’d be surprised if it advanced at this point.

Kingdom Hearts: On the opposite end of the spectrum, this is a game that’s gained a lot of ground since 2004, where it barely beat Soul Calibur and was probably StarCraft’s only completely legitimate win. It seems the Nintendo site shift helped out Kingdom Hearts, too, because Sora and Kingdom Hearts have become day vote beasts. Back in 2004, I doubt Kingdom Hearts even advances, but now, I think it’ll win this poll outright.
Master Moltar | Posted 4/27/2009 8:48:02 PM | message detail
Metroid Prime: After seeing Super Metroid look less than stellar, it’s Metroid Prime’s turn to prove it’s the strongest in the series. Prime impressed me back in 2004 by not completely folding to Wind Waker, unlike the other two Metroid games in the contest. Sure, you could blame that on WW’s inability to SFF rather than Prime’s strength, but that was impressive to me. With the fact that LFF hasn’t really shown itself to be prominent here, don’t expect Paper Mario to hold it back here. Prime’s got a great shot at first place, though I think it’ll come up short in the end.

Paper Mario: After Super Mario RPG performed well yet again, surely Paper Mario is strong enough to advance, right? Theoretically, if Mario RPG’s strength is propelled by franchise voting, that would be correct. I think this will be a great test of franchise voting here. Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door got owned by Metroid Prime 2 on a GOTY poll several years back, so Paper Mario shouldn’t stand much of a chance against Metroid Prime here. I don’t think it’ll advance, but don’t be surprised if it’s giving Vice City a run for its money for third place! And if Paper Mario bombs, can all the people who called Mario RPG franchise-powered recant on that statement?!

Leonhart’s Vote: I love me some Paper Mario, so it gets my vote here.

Leonhart’s Prediction:

Grand Theft Auto: Vice City – 19.45%
Kingdom Hearts – 33.11%
Metroid Prime – 32.99%
Paper Mario – 14.45%




Ed Bellis’s Analysis

Three games that could very well move on. WHAT A TWIST~

So Vice City, Kingdom Hearts, and Metroid Prime were all in the 128 Division back in 2004. They all lost in Round Two, VC to Melee, KH to Starcraft and Prime to Wind Waker. Going off of 2004 stats, it seems likely that Kingdom Hearts is probably the strongest of the three… but since when has that been a reliable form of arguing? Hell, I’m not even sure if it was reliable back when the original contest started.

So let’s throw all that out the window and examine the site demographics. Kingdom Hearts is my pick for first place because this site loves its Square RPG-ish games, and the series as a whole was able to hang with the likes of Castlevania back in the series contest. Metroid Prime is my pick for second because both original and Super Metroid have really impressed thus far. I could easily see Prime taking first, though.

Vice City… dunno what to make of it. Sure, it beat Knights of the Old Republic, but who cares about Knights of the Old Republic? It’s probably one of the weaker GTA games by this point in time.

Oh, and Paper Mario’s here too.

Prediction: SAMUS IS UNDER FIRE
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City with 23.99%
Kingdom Hearts with 30.01%
Metroid Prime with 28.49%
Paper Mario with 17.51%



Guest’s Analysis - BlAcK TuRtLe

Grand Theft Auto: Vice City

Wow, hard to believe how long it's been since this game came out.

Kingdom Hearts

CLOWN SHOES

Metroid Prime

Great game, the second time around

Paper Mario

Probably the weakest Mario in the bracket

Analysis:

This is a very interesting match. There could reasonably be any combination of Metroid, Kingdom Hearts or GTA advancing here. This is made even more interesting by the fact that they were all very close in the 2004 x-stats (although those are questionable for obvious reasons), so this match will come down to who has changed the most in the last 5 years.

Personally, I think we can write Grand Theft Auto off right away. Tommy Vercetti almost lost to PaRappa the Rappa in 2007 and it's clear that his game hasn't aged well.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/27/2009 8:48:22 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Master Moltar | Posted 4/27/2009 8:48:26 PM | message detail
Of the remaining 2, both have reasons to be stronger. Metroid Prime was behind Wind Waker in 2004, which likely hurt it's stat value. There's also the matter of the 2005 Nintendo boost. On the flipside, Super Metroid and Metroid weren't very impressive this year.

Kingdom Hearts was likely inflated due to Starcraft's run in 2004, but it also had a very well recieved sequel in 2006 that turned Sora from the guy that got doubled by Aeris to the guy that almost beat Squall 3 times. Will the strength of KH2 retroactively apply itself to the original?

Personally, I think Metroid Prime wins in a 1v1 setting, though the presence of Paper Mario is definitely something to worry about. Then again, SFF hasn't been a real factor so far this year.

When I made my bracket, I took KH > Prime, but I've changed my mind with what we've seen so far this year.

TuRtLe's Prediction: Metroid Prime 35%, Kingdom Hearts 33%, GTA 20%, Paper Mario 12%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Kingdom Hearts > Metroid Prime
TuRtLe's Vote: Metroid Prime





Crew Consensus: KH > Prime is the favorite over Prime > KH
transience | Posted 4/27/2009 8:51:29 PM | message detail
I feel like something really weird is going to happen here. like KH or MP with 40+%, PM with 5% or GTA doing well. I dunno, this is a weird match.
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xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 4/27/2009 8:54:04 PM | message detail
Just remember that VC will have a terrible board vote.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFX > MGS2 Points: 57/80
Solid_Mike86 | Posted 4/27/2009 8:54:46 PM | message detail
Lets go Prime and VC!!!
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***UNC TARHEELS 2008-2009 NCAA CHAMPIONS***
AKA Super Luigi. Go Hurricanes! CAR - 2 NJ - 2
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/27/2009 8:55:08 PM | message detail
Doesn't Kingdom Hearts also have a pretty meh board vote? Samus might take the lead early.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
transience | Posted 4/27/2009 8:56:24 PM | message detail
yeah I expect Prime to take over early. KH will do a lot better after the first hour, and then of course the day vote.
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xyzzy
hochiminhX | Posted 4/27/2009 8:56:29 PM | message detail
Time to prove once and for all that Grand Theft Auto is finished on this site

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I may be fine and divine, but sometimes even contest know-nothings like Jose make better predictions than I...though not often
RockMFR 5 | Posted 4/27/2009 8:59:52 PM | message detail
come on Vice City > Prime...
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/27/2009 9:00:16 PM | message detail
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 16.67%

2
Kingdom Hearts 16.67%

2
Metroid Prime 41.67%

5
Paper Mario 25%

3
TOTAL VOTES 12

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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
Just Some Person | Posted 4/27/2009 9:00:23 PM | message detail
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 14.29% 7
Kingdom Hearts 24.49% 12
Metroid Prime 36.73% 18
Paper Mario 24.49% 12
TOTAL VOTES 49

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The sauce is weak with this one. But...if he could be churned, he would make a powerful stir-fry.
Janus5000 | Posted 4/27/2009 9:00:24 PM | message detail
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 14.58%

7
Kingdom Hearts 22.92%

11
Metroid Prime 37.5%

18
Paper Mario 25%

12
TOTAL VOTES 48

SUBMIT
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Stay a while and breathe me in.
Majin Lou | Posted 4/27/2009 9:00:29 PM | message detail
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 33.33%

2
Kingdom Hearts 16.67%

1
Metroid Prime 33.33%

2
Paper Mario 16.67%

1
TOTAL VOTES 6

Vote 2 for VC **** yeah!
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I am absolute corruption.
Pokemon Platinum FC: 1934 6546 0293
transience | Posted 4/27/2009 9:00:31 PM | message detail
lol gta
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xyzzy
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/27/2009 9:00:33 PM | message detail
the board loves their gta
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
Master Moltar | Posted 4/27/2009 9:00:35 PM | message detail
yay Prime!
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Moltar Status: ahh, there you are
Match 22 - Bracket: MP > KH - Vote: MP (62/84)
hochiminhX | Posted 4/27/2009 9:00:45 PM | message detail
Yep, it's KH > MP. This match is done.

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I may be fine and divine, but sometimes even contest know-nothings like Jose make better predictions than I...though not often
GrapefruitKing | Posted 4/27/2009 9:00:45 PM | message detail
unsurprised to see Prime over KH right now
let's see if this lasts
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Today's prediction: Darkness 33.85% - Prime 29.00% - Hawaiian Shirt City 21.78% - Pepper Mario 15.37%
Status:
transience | Posted 4/27/2009 9:00:47 PM | message detail
yeah KH > Prime next
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png
Xcarvenger | Posted 4/27/2009 9:00:57 PM | message detail
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 13.1%

11
Kingdom Hearts 32.14%

27
Metroid Prime 33.33%

28
Paper Mario 21.43%

18
TOTAL VOTES 84

lol gta

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~~> www.board8.wikia.com ~ The source for all your GameFAQs Contests needs.
Condition: Green
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/27/2009 9:01:06 PM | message detail
Argh, Paper Mario doing way too well early. Hope it's popular around these parts.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 4/27/2009 9:01:06 PM | message detail
well, I got my answer quick
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Today's prediction: Darkness 33.85% - Prime 29.00% - Hawaiian Shirt City 21.78% - Pepper Mario 15.37%
Status:
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/27/2009 9:01:21 PM | message detail
Close matches for 1st and 3rd!
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http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
charmander6000 | Posted 4/27/2009 9:01:21 PM | message detail
Come on Vice City.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: KH > GTA: VC Points: 61/84
ScorpioVS | Posted 4/27/2009 9:01:28 PM | message detail
omg is Kingdom Hearts gonna win this?
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Dark Defender
Meeks54 | Posted 4/27/2009 9:01:33 PM | message detail
It's over. If KH wins the board vote, that is all she wrote.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
RPGuy96 | Posted 4/27/2009 9:01:48 PM | message detail
Prime has every reason except brackets to get the board vote, so yawn for now. Prove me wrong, Prime!
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96
transience | Posted 4/27/2009 9:02:03 PM | message detail
Paper Mario's doing really well. the board's shown a lot of love for it in the past - wonder if it holds up.
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/27/2009 9:02:09 PM | message detail
KH > Metroid

next
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png
Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
KingBartz | Posted 4/27/2009 9:02:15 PM | message detail
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 18.51% 104
Kingdom Hearts 32.21% 181
Metroid Prime 31.14% 175
Paper Mario 18.15% 102
TOTAL VOTES 562


for once a match with a close start.

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Check out my Guru bracket: http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=60
therealmnm | Posted 4/27/2009 9:02:45 PM | message detail
Paper Mario giving GTA a fight!
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
Master Moltar | Posted 4/27/2009 9:02:46 PM | message detail
and there's Prime falling off

darn you gamefaqs
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Moltar Status: ahh, there you are
Match 22 - Bracket: MP > KH - Vote: MP (62/84)
red sox 777 | Posted 4/27/2009 9:02:46 PM | message detail
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 18.32% 85
Kingdom Hearts 33.41% 155
Metroid Prime 30.6% 142
Paper Mario 17.67% 82
TOTAL VOTES 464

Paper Mario doing well!
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 4/27/2009 9:02:50 PM | message detail
whoa.. KH exploding right now
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Today's prediction: Darkness 33.85% - Prime 29.00% - Hawaiian Shirt City 21.78% - Pepper Mario 15.37%
Status:
MegatokyoEd | Posted 4/27/2009 9:02:52 PM | message detail
Yeah, KH has this with ease. Let's see if Prime holds on.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
Just Some Person | Posted 4/27/2009 9:03:03 PM | message detail
KH pulling away!

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The sauce is weak with this one. But...if he could be churned, he would make a powerful stir-fry.
transience | Posted 4/27/2009 9:03:18 PM | message detail
Prime bomba

though I guess you could explain it off by Paper Mario doing so well - but I hate doing that

kinda worried about GTA beating it, to be honest
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yzzyx
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/27/2009 9:03:21 PM | message detail
Looks like that's all she wrote. Prime will be back in a few weeks to show everyone that fanbase splits and the Stand Out Factor is alive and well!
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
Solid_Mike86 | Posted 4/27/2009 9:03:31 PM | message detail
Does every god damn ****ing thing related to FF dominate on this site? What a joke.
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***UNC TARHEELS 2008-2009 NCAA CHAMPIONS***
AKA Super Luigi. Go Hurricanes! CAR - 2 NJ - 2