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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 692

creativename | Posted 4/27/2009 9:48:40 AM | message detail
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Paper Mario finish above Vice City. Main reason I think it might not is only because Metroid is there, but I don't see much overlap between Metroid and Paper Mario really.

I'm not sure though, even if it did, it BARELY beat Soul calibur which got like 16% in that poll 2 days ago

Ack. What is this 2K4 obsession!?

Soul Calibur was not craptastic in 2K4. Things change.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/27/2009 9:49:56 AM | message detail
Mario Kart (series) would crush Paper Mario series big time. Mario Kart and Smash Bros. are the two biggest spinoff series on this site, and anyone who didn't think SMK would be strong was fooling themselves. MK64 > SMK, but it's not by much.

I thought it would be strong, but I'm not sure about you, but I would take Super Metroid > Metroid Prime.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFX > MGS2 Points: 57/80
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/27/2009 9:50:22 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2622

This makes me doubt Kingdom Hearts games as well. If FF12 easily beats it, then maybe Sora is just a lot stronger then his game.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/27/2009 9:51:10 AM | message detail
You may hate 2004 stats, but Kingdom Hearts has no reason to be stronger than what it was in 2004, if anything it could be weaker because it has been forgotten because of the newer Kingdom Hearts II.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFX > MGS2 Points: 57/80
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/27/2009 9:53:00 AM | message detail
I think first place is still completely up in the air tonight. I can see KH, MP, or VC winning outright. Vice City has more of a potential to bomb, but it's all just speculation for now.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 4/27/2009 9:53:01 AM | message detail
KHII came out. That is reason enough for KH to boost.

You can argue, however, that KHII has been forgotten and such, but don't say that KH has no reason to boost.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/27/2009 9:53:07 AM | message detail
Soul's opinion on FO3 =/= The majority of voters' opinions on FO3.

Most fans and thus potential voters essentially sum up Fallout 3 as "Oblivion with guns," so it's not too farfetched that the Elder Scrolls and FO3 fanbases would have some similarities, despite how different Soul thinks the two games are.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/27/2009 9:54:32 AM | message detail
KHII came out. That is reason enough for KH to boost.

You can argue, however, that KHII has been forgotten and such, but don't say that KH has no reason to boost.


The same could be said for Metroid Prime and Vice City, other games in the series are the last to boost when a new game gets released.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFX > MGS2 Points: 57/80
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/27/2009 9:54:49 AM | message detail
They'll all get under 10%. Every single one of them will manage to suck so much that they'll find a way so that they'll sum up less than 40%.
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creativename | Posted 4/27/2009 9:56:20 AM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts probably is weaker relative to competition now (it probably isn't at 35% against FF7 indirectly anymore).

But almost all games from back then will be weaker because they're 5 years older. Generally, as games age they get weaker. But Kingdom Hearts decline shouldn't be precipitous, it should be somewhat marginal.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/27/2009 9:56:44 AM | message detail
They'll all get under 10%. Every single one of them will manage to suck so much that they'll find a way so that they'll sum up less than 40%.

XD
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creativename | Posted 4/27/2009 9:59:24 AM | message detail
The same could be said for Metroid Prime and Vice City, other games in the series are the last to boost when a new game gets released.

This absolutely can not be said about Vice City. Newer GTA games make older ones irrelevant. It's very different than most franchises. Plus GTA is probably among the most short-attention-span fanbases out there.

I think GTA3 might be the only GTA game that doesn't disappoint, because people have low expectations for it, and it might get some respect just because it was so revolutionary.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/27/2009 9:59:55 AM | message detail
They'll all get under 10%. Every single one of them will manage to suck so much that they'll find a way so that they'll sum up less than 40%.

If not voting meant a vote for no one, Nobody would've defeated Secret of Mana in Sonic 2/MK/SoM/SFII.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFX > MGS2 Points: 57/80
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/27/2009 10:04:27 AM | message detail
I think GTA3 might be the only GTA game that doesn't disappoint, because people have low expectations for it, and it might get some respect just because it was so revolutionary.

Yep, I think it has the most potential to surprise. If you had to single out one game as to why the PS2 dominated the last generation as well as it did, it would be Grand Theft Auto III. If people remember that, it could do well enough to advance, especially since its competition seems right for it.

But please, Bacon, no simple and unappealing boxart shot. If it gets Claude up there, I'm certain it'll get nostalgia votes.
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MnMZero | Posted 4/27/2009 10:05:02 AM | message detail
In my quick bracket making process, I took KH over Metroid Prime and didn't think much else about it. Metroid Prime at least holds the status of most popular in its series (by which I mean 3D). GTA:VC is eclipsed by its successors, and judging by how GTAIV has performed on this site so far, the love for GTA has decreased significantly. And I maintain that Paper Mario probably won't amount to much, judging by the performance of the other late N64 games. If Majora's Mask can perform terribly while holding the Zelda flag, I don't see Paper Mario escaping this as well. Especially seeing how "popular" its sequel is. Metroid Prime 2 easily beat PM2 in the GotY poll.

And since when is almost losing to SMK automatically assumed to be a terrible performance? I'm actually surprised that SM even held up. We're talking a SNES game that sold less than 2 million vs. the first game of a current flagship series that sold over 7 million (i think) on the same system. Metroid is never going to be a top series on this site, so I think SM did very well in having the strength to hold off SMK. I definitely think MP can hold off GTA:VC...
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XxSoulxX | Posted 4/27/2009 10:05:21 AM | message detail
VC is more liked and more popular then GTA3.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/27/2009 10:06:08 AM | message detail
Charmander's right that the first KH has no reason to boost. HL isn't really reliable evidence for this, though, but looking at RE and RE2 as well, I really doubt later games boost older games substantially.

With that said, KH should be an average game here. MP should be all right as well, but I still favor MP for first simply because, well, I just don't trust *anything* behind Starcraft. Things change, but I don't see why it'd favor KH more than Metroid Prime.

Vice City is just.. out there. Paper Mario is my hopes and dreams!
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MnMZero | Posted 4/27/2009 10:08:26 AM | message detail
And as for the FPS/RPG argument goes, isn't Fallout 3:Oblivion similar to the relationship between KOTOR:Mass Effect? Sure, you can play Mass Effect like a 3rd person shooter, but the same RPG elements and gameplay are incorporated into it. Isn't that the same thing Fallout did to the Oblivion engine?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/27/2009 10:08:49 AM | message detail
And I maintain that Paper Mario probably won't amount to much, judging by the performance of the other late N64 games.

Same here. Watching Yoshi's Island, Majora's Mask, and Tactics get killed is proof enough that a game needs more than just that big series stapled up there to do well. Paper Mario is far from a big series, and it came out after Majora's Mask. Bomb potential is high!
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/27/2009 10:13:07 AM | message detail
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Paper Mario finish above Vice City. Main reason I think it might not is only because Metroid is there, but I don't see much overlap between Metroid and Paper Mario really.

I'd be very happy if Paper Mario beat out both Vice City and Metroid Prime to take second. Don't think the chance of that happening is 0 either.

These things have more to do with the site's changing tastes than anything regarding the division. You really shouldn't be paying much attention to the old ass stats. It's not like Half-Life etc. would've sucked like this back then against different competition, which is what you're saying if you think they were overrated stats-wise.

It doesn't seem like coincidence to me that everything we've seen from Starcraft's side of the division has failed so far, and I've never been able to believe that Halo was at 37% on FFVII, or that KH was just a step behind FFX, etc, whereas the effect of bandwagoning has been validated pretty well in the past 2 years. Starcraft, Soul Calibur, and Half-Life may have dropped since 2004 (and many people were saying that HL had boosted), but that half of the division was plenty overrated back then.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/27/2009 10:17:58 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1129

todays match makes me wish we had Warcraft 3 in this contest... it could make some noise -cry-
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/27/2009 10:23:05 AM | message detail
Maybe in a weak fourpack.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/27/2009 10:24:17 AM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #172
Maybe in a weak fourpack.


Replace Fire Emblem with Warcraft 3 in that SSBM/WW/Disgaea match, and we could have an upset.
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swirIdude | Posted 4/27/2009 10:24:36 AM | message detail
With that said, KH should be an average game here. MP should be all right as well, but I still favor MP for first simply because, well, I just don't trust *anything* behind Starcraft.

Both KH and MP are behind Starcraft; KH was in a direct match, Starcraft's ONLY non-50-50 match, while Prime lost 55-45 to Wind Waker which WAS in a Starcraft 50-50 controversial match.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/27/2009 10:24:49 AM | message detail
Personally, I think Paper Mario will fall flat on its face (lolcwutididthar). Seeing as Yoshi's Island, Majora's Mask, and Final Fantasy Tactics all got killed, it takes more than just a big series name to do well.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 4/27/2009 10:26:29 AM | message detail
Replace Fire Emblem with Warcraft 3 in that SSBM/WW/Disgaea match, and we could have an upset.

Nope. SSBM > WW would still happen. Stop overhyping a game that wasn't liked.
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swirIdude | Posted 4/27/2009 10:28:37 AM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | Posted: 4/27/2009 1:26:29 PM | #176
Replace Fire Emblem with Warcraft 3 in that SSBM/WW/Disgaea match, and we could have an upset.

Nope. SSBM > WW would still happen. Stop overhyping a game that wasn't liked.


Ahahaha, what? I already regret taking WoW out of Round 1 much less taking it to Round 3. The idea of Warcraft 3 ever advancing is laughable.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/27/2009 10:30:19 AM | message detail

From: swirIdude | #174
Both KH and MP are behind Starcraft


Oh... forgot about that.

.. Well, KH still would have probably lost to the normal SC back then. Not sure if MP would have (no idea what 45% on Wind Waker).

Half-Life sure as hell doesn't spark much though..
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swirIdude | Posted 4/27/2009 10:31:46 AM | message detail
Well, KH still would have probably lost to the normal SC back then.

Um, it DID. Unless you mean normal Starcraft to be the one in controversial 50-50 rally situations, which would be ironic.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/27/2009 10:35:26 AM | message detail
Yes, I meant the unbandwagoned SC (some people think its match with KH is still weird today).
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BGE2 - Today: FFX > MGS2 - Points: 55/80 Vote: MGS2
swirIdude | Posted 4/27/2009 10:41:41 AM | message detail
We're likely to see the same bunching effect in the 2007-2009 division we saw with Division 128, in that it's all too new to separate from the pack (except maybe big names like SSBB, SMG, and TP). It's hard to take anything from Division 128 at face value, except for more obvious things like "FFX kicks Shenmue and FFTA's ass", which are few and far between when there were many close matches.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/27/2009 10:50:30 AM | message detail
Speaking of FFX, it couldn't even triple Shenmue or double FFTA in the last contest. Yet it's owning the mess out of MGS2 today.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 4/27/2009 10:52:04 AM | message detail
Would Dissidia be the reason?
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/27/2009 11:14:13 AM | message detail
Why do people think that Kingdom Hearts is suppose to have strength? 2004 Sora happened just months after Kingdom Flop and the boost in 2006 was due to Kingdom Hearts II.

Kingdom Hearts has been a completely different beast since 2005, honestly. It seems to be the one Square series that actually benefited from the Nintendo Boost, for whatever the reason (though in a sense, it makes sense to me...). No way Kingdom Hearts nearly loses to SoulCalibur now, or even StarCraft, I'd say. Squall would've ripped Sora a new one in 2003 or 2004, and remember that Sora easily beat Aeris in 2007 and has hung right there with Squall three out of the four times they've met.

You can blame that on KHII if you want, but Kingdom Hearts in general having an outstanding day vote didn't really start until 2005.
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swirIdude | Posted 4/27/2009 11:21:06 AM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | Posted: 4/27/2009 1:50:30 PM | #182
Speaking of FFX, it couldn't even triple Shenmue or double FFTA in the last contest. Yet it's owning the mess out of MGS2 today.


FFX is more likely to age better than MGS2, the way I see it. It was the defining FF of the PS2 era, and XI and XII were online and disappointing respectively. Meanwhile MGS2 is not considered the definitive best of its era, as people still support the original MGS, and others support MGS3 which is also a PS2 game.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/27/2009 11:21:49 AM | message detail
http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/board8/images/f/f7/Graph1626.png

Meh, KH had a good day vote in 2004.. and don't forget SC is also a good day vote game (It did best in the ASV this year iirc)
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/27/2009 11:21:54 AM | message detail
You may hate 2004 stats, but Kingdom Hearts has no reason to be stronger than what it was in 2004, if anything it could be weaker because it has been forgotten because of the newer Kingdom Hearts II.

From my observations, the general consensus is that KHI was better than KHII, so I doubt that's the case.

Also, FFX's performance here is strangely similar to FFVIII's match a few days ago. Heck, it's almost getting the same percentage on MGS2 than FFVIII got on StarCraft. I think most people would take MGS2 over StarCraft, and so would I, but I wouldn't expect a blowout by any means.

Tomorrow's match reminds me that I had KH > Metroid Prime in the Sweet Sixteen back in the original Games Contest. Go me!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/27/2009 11:22:33 AM | message detail
Meh, KH had a good day vote in 2004

There's a difference between "good" and what KH does now.
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 4/27/2009 11:25:02 AM | message detail
FFX has aged fantastically, so it's no wonder it's kicking the crap out of MGS2.

Actually, this performance today slightly disappoints me, but that's just because I think MGS2 is much weaker than MGS1 or MGS4. Not so sure on MGS3 yet.

For tomorrow, I picked MP > KH, but I wish I'd taken KH > MP instead.
Super Metroid's performance really stunk, so I don't expect much from MP anymore.

Also, Vice City and Paper Mario have no chance in tomorrow's match. No one gives a damn about any of those two games anymore. Vice City will flop hard compared to 2k4, and who has any expectations for Paper Mario to begin with (sub 10% performance, book it)
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Smurf Alt | Posted 4/27/2009 11:25:37 AM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #186
http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/board8/images/f/f7/Graph1626.png

Meh, KH had a good day vote in 2004.. and don't forget SC is also a good day vote game (It did best in the ASV this year iirc)


It was good but not the beast it is now. Sora clawing nearly 2000 back on squall with the handicaps of both a 4-way format and an SFF soaked match against him is a type of wicked day vote that nobody else can compete with.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/27/2009 11:25:38 AM | message detail
Something funny I just noticed

MGS2 had the worst night vote of the 4 games. Never thought I'd see MGS suck at night!
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 4/27/2009 11:30:38 AM | message detail
I just looked at my bracket, and WTF was I thinking when I filled out that thing.

I have Oblivion > GTA SA
well then... talk about a crazy upset.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/27/2009 11:31:07 AM | message detail
Might work out for you if San Andreas bombs! Glad I switched from SA > GoW to SA > Oblivion, at least!
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Ultimaphazon | Posted 4/27/2009 11:34:18 AM | message detail
I think all GTA games are going to bomb (I took SFIV > GTA IV as well), and Morrowind is impressing here, but Oblivion > SA would require the biggest bomb in contest history.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/27/2009 11:35:14 AM | message detail
Oblivion > SA isn't that out there. If SA bombs that much, then Oblivion > GoW is more likely.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/27/2009 11:35:30 AM | message detail
It's a crazy upset that may very well pay off. San Andreas and God of War share a system and go after the same type of fan. Oblivion is the only Xbox option (PC and PS3 as well) and certainly has the sales and acclaim to compete. I wouldn't mind having that upset in my bracket right now, although I'll live with having Oblivion in second place.

Anyway, the FFVIII and X performances, along with the last few years of contest results, make me feel pretty good about Kingdom Hearts tomorrow. Remember that in 2006, the KH series basically proved that its two games are a notch above Halo's two, which is a turnaround from what we saw in the first games contest. Such a shame that I risked it with Metroid Prime winning, though I still think that's a possibility. Based on what we've seen, Paper Mario has a pretty good chance to bomb.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/27/2009 11:37:00 AM | message detail
Yeah, I don't think Paper Mario's going to do very well. Speaking of which, can we finally say that Mario RPG's strength isn't all franchise voting? Please?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/27/2009 11:37:30 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #197
Yeah, I don't think Paper Mario's going to do very well. Speaking of which, can we finally say that Mario RPG's strength isn't all franchise voting? Please?


Wait till Paper Mario bombs to say this
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swirIdude | Posted 4/27/2009 11:38:35 AM | message detail
God of War > Oblivion in that match. Believe it!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/27/2009 11:40:43 AM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | C. Cross | FFIX | Half-Life | LOZ: OOT | Demographic
EBV | 9.94% | 22.64% | 15.83% | 51.60% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 10.49% | 21.31% | 15.26% | 52.94% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 11.49% | 22.74% | 15.87% | 49.90% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 9.37% | 25.38% | 16.15% | 49.09% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 9.49% | 20.80% | 14.26% | 54.88% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 10.31% | 19.96% | 13.59% | 56.15% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 11.70% | 20.11% | 13.16% | 55.03% | (22:00-24:00)

Great day vote for OoT, well above anything else it got. The night vote and early morning vote actually held it slightly under half of the votes. Like with FFVIII, FFIX also had a great early morning vote. The afternoon vote hit it pretty hard though. Half-Life did its best work at night and really dropped off in the afternoon. Chrono Cross does its best work at night like its older brother, but it was very, very consistent in the afternoon. Its percentage barely budged during that entire span from 14:30-22:00.

Yesterday's stats:

Ocarina of Time – 50.00%
Final Fantasy IX – 28.40%
Half-Life – 21.30%
Chrono Cross – 16.10%
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