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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 691

LeonhartFour | Posted 4/26/2009 5:56:22 PM | message detail
So what does FFX need to get tomorrow for people to feel it's the second strongest FF game here?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/26/2009 5:57:20 PM | message detail
Well you've got the weakest MGS game, an Elder Scrolls game no one has played, and Silent Hill.

At least 50%.

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transience | Posted 4/26/2009 5:58:10 PM | message detail
MGS2's no joke - 45% on FFX indirectly.
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yzzyx
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/26/2009 5:59:18 PM | message detail
FFX has to pull at least 50k votes to look like it has a chance at second strongest game, and 60k to cement its status until FF8 scores an upset. Anything less, and it'll be a nasty flop.
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/26/2009 5:59:26 PM | message detail
I know, but seeing FFVIII put up 45% against Starcraft, Soul Calibur, and Xenogears is hard to top. MGS2>Starcraft, but Silent Hill 2 and Morrowind are weeeeak.

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ZFS | Posted 4/26/2009 6:00:33 PM | message detail
MGS2 probably would have beat StarCraft pretty good, too. 45% sounds about right to me.

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Yesmar | Posted 4/26/2009 6:01:36 PM | message detail
I'm still doubtful that there's no LFF for games. For example, FFIX isn't advancing here because it's doing well despite Chrono Cross's presence. What 2004 game does this performance put it on the level of? Perfect Dark? It's advancing because Half-Life has completely bombed. Same with Metroid, SMRPG, FFVIII and to a lesser extent DKC. Other than SM/SMK/Sonic 3 has anything really pointed towards dramatically less LFF?
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
RPGuy96 | Posted 4/26/2009 6:04:40 PM | message detail
I dunno. I'm skeptical of both MGS2 and FFX, and the other competition isn't going to tell us much of anything. I don't think it has to do to much for me to put it over FFVI; I'd probably pick StarCraft over MGS2, so it's gotta do better than FFVIII.
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Mustache...and Green...
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/26/2009 6:05:35 PM | message detail
This match is on track to beat the vote totals for the FFVII match. Looks like vote totals could fall between 132000 and 134000.

The Gurus picked all 3 Valve games, while I picked all of the opposition. This first result looks bad for HL2, also playing a late-gen FF. Portal vs BioShock can still go either way.

I backed Half-Life and Half-Life 2 in my bracket, but I picked BioShock over Portal.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/26/2009 6:05:50 PM | message detail
45% for MGS2 on FFX? That seems high if FFX wants a spot in the finals; what would you take MGS to get on FFX, then?
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Mustache...and Green...
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/26/2009 6:07:09 PM | message detail
That's what the 2004 stats say- it feels wrong to me, but I'm not sure why the stats would have been wrong there, or why FFX would have gained on MGS2 in the 5 years since.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
transience | Posted 4/26/2009 6:07:42 PM | message detail
I just meant via stats. I expect a big result from FF10.
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xyzzy
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/26/2009 6:08:04 PM | message detail
Well, he's talking about based on their matches with Melee in 2004. How it goes tomorrow is another story.

I've got FFX pegged at 44-45% tomorrow myself.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/26/2009 6:09:01 PM | message detail
MGS2's gonna surprise some people tomorrow. Book it.
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ZFS | Posted 4/26/2009 6:09:02 PM | message detail
Oh, wait, what MGS2 would get on FFX. I'm expecting it to be about what Melee did last contest, which would be pretty good considering MGS should be stronger this year than 2k4.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/26/2009 6:09:35 PM | message detail
All you naysayers just wait - MGS2 is gonna put the fire to FFX!

(and it'll STILL be stronger than FF8 huh who's with me)
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/26/2009 6:13:03 PM | message detail
That's a hype train I'm willing to get on!

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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/26/2009 6:15:16 PM | message detail
Two trains that I'm not buyin' tickets for!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/26/2009 6:17:09 PM | message detail
This train we on don't sell no tickets!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/26/2009 6:17:54 PM | message detail
That's why you won't have no passengers!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/26/2009 6:18:47 PM | message detail
Why in the world would be let plebeians on our fantastic train?

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creativename | Posted 4/26/2009 6:19:48 PM | message detail
FFX was more well-liked and is newer than FF8. FF8 has pretty much nothing on FFX, except sales - and all considered, that might as well be nothing. FFX>FF8. Probably not by that much, but it will be stronger.
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transience | Posted 4/26/2009 6:20:24 PM | message detail
I don't even think FF8 has sales on FF10.
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/26/2009 6:20:57 PM | message detail
FF8 sold less than FFX, I think.

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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/26/2009 6:21:22 PM | message detail
What are the sales figures for both?
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/26/2009 6:23:01 PM | message detail
FF8 is the highest selling FF game after FF7 I believe, so it DOES have the sales factor. It has another thing going for it, though, and its that it tends to generate strong reactions. When was the last time you saw someone starting a flamefest about FFX? It's well liked, but it has a sort of "meh" reaction.

Now that I think about it, in some ways, MGS2 is a bit like FF8. On its day, it was very polarizing, but the haters have since moved on, leaving those who loved it. What if it turns out to be stronger than we think it is?
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/26/2009 6:24:18 PM | message detail
FF8 beats FF10 in sales I think if you count Japan in which it has a fairly nice edge. But FF10 seems to have sold better overall in countries outside of Japan. Since we don't really get Japanese voters that's not going to matter
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
AmazingKirby | Posted 4/26/2009 6:24:34 PM | message detail
I don't think tons of people hating a game is a plus factor...
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/26/2009 6:24:38 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm thinking FFVIII was actually the BEST selling FF game for a while, but FFVII eventually repassed it somehow. It's still second best overall, if I'm not mistaken. Need HM to confirm.

FFX was more well-liked and is newer than FF8. FF8 has pretty much nothing on FFX, except sales - and all considered, that might as well be nothing. FFX>FF8. Probably not by that much, but it will be stronger.

FFVIII has a well-liked lead!

And after all that talk about how FFVIII has nothing on FFX, you go on to say that the difference won't be that much!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/26/2009 6:26:32 PM | message detail
Actually, MGS2 is still the best-selling MGS game...

Feeling marginally better about this suicidal train I'm on!

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transience | Posted 4/26/2009 6:26:50 PM | message detail
yeah, sales aren't going to matter with numbers that big.

MGS2 sold like crazy too, though.
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xyzzy
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transience | Posted 4/26/2009 6:28:00 PM | message detail
according to http://www.sporcle.com/games/bestsellingvideogames.php, FF8 and FF10 are essentially equal.

their reference is vgchartz though so don't expect anything close to accurate
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/26/2009 6:28:17 PM | message detail
MGS4 sold approximately 1000000% less than SSBB and nearly beat it straight up (and WILL beat it this time around!). Clearly this only means good things for MGS2
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/26/2009 6:29:20 PM | message detail
Brawl sold 7 million, MGS4 sold 3+ million.

Not that huge a difference.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/26/2009 6:30:47 PM | message detail
Well if you want to include the hardcore fanatics who bought the game multiple times to bolster its sales

(<_________<)

then sure I guess
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/26/2009 6:46:52 PM | message detail
Ugh, the first Half-Life is closer to Chrono Cross than FFIX?

Yeah, FFX better at least hit near 50%.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: OoT > HL - Points: 53/76 Vote: OoT
Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/26/2009 6:48:39 PM | message detail
MGS2 > Starcraft

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[ FINAL FOUR ] FFVII / SMB3 / LoZ: OoT / MGS
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=161
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/26/2009 6:50:11 PM | message detail

From: Dilated Chemist | #387
MGS2 > Starcraft


Not even confident in something like that anymore. I wouldn't see them too far apart.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: OoT > HL - Points: 53/76 Vote: OoT
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/26/2009 6:52:28 PM | message detail
MGS2 can't double a heavily SFFed Xenogears confirmed
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 4/26/2009 6:54:04 PM | message detail
One thing that must be stated is that Division 128 was messed up last contest, so we don't really know how that's going to work out. I made my bracket pick based on the fact that Half-Life had placed #31 on the list, while Final Fantasy IX was like #42 or something, and FF9 would be losing votes to Chrono Cross.

Ocarina of Time is impressing now; it's showing itself to be FF7-caliber in strength right now.

BTW I'd like to see Metroid Prime win the next division, though in my bracket I don't even have it surviving round 1. Though MP was this site's 2002 Game of the Year, so by definition it can't lose to two other games released in 2002, right?

Despite franchise voting, I still think that Half-Life 2 will beat Final Fantasy XII and Resident Evil 4 will beat Twilight Princess. If that doesn't happen, then it proves that this site has somewhat biased taste.
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/26/2009 7:04:17 PM | message detail
Hey guys, I have a foolproof way of measuring FFX vs. MGS2.

Who would win in Raiden vs. Tidus?

Who would win in Snake vs. Auron?

FFX gonna get ROCKED

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ffmasterjose | Posted 4/26/2009 7:06:12 PM | message detail
ITALIC PREDICTION: KP IS RIGHT
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60/76 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Half-Life | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/26/2009 7:06:13 PM | message detail
Would people really take Raiden > Tidus? Tidus should take that pretty comfortably (and deservedly so!).
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turnturnturn your brain in
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/26/2009 7:07:03 PM | message detail
Yeah, I can't really see Kain giving Tidus a good match
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/26/2009 7:07:22 PM | message detail
Tidus should take that pretty comfortably (and deservedly so!)

ffffffffffffffffff
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/26/2009 7:07:35 PM | message detail
I said FFX gonna get ROCKED

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ZFS | Posted 4/26/2009 7:09:59 PM | message detail
FFVII's the best selling FF game, by a good million units or so. Best selling FF in every territory, too.

FFVIII's second worldwide, but it's like 2.4 million to 2.1 million in the States in favor of FFX. Not much difference.

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charmander6000 | Posted 4/26/2009 7:12:59 PM | message detail
I'm sorry guys, but I have to do this...

I just have enough faith in the rallying power if that say, MGS3 is up by 4000 votes going into the asv...

Are you ****ing crazy? Not only is the the biggest comeback ever, but you're saying that it could happen in four-ways? WoW isn't even an ASV game plus it has Halo 2 to compete with. Don't say that Halo 2 won't matter since it's between MGS3 and WoW because for every vote that Halo 2 gets is a vote less that WoW gets and more votes needed in a rally. Come back when actually know something about trends.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Half-Life Points: 55/76
swirIdude | Posted 4/26/2009 7:13:52 PM | message detail
BTW I'd like to see Metroid Prime win the next division, though in my bracket I don't even have it surviving round 1.

If the greatest game ever made loses in ROUND 1 I will have lost all hope in the economy.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/26/2009 7:14:43 PM | message detail
ban charmander
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