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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 691

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/25/2009 9:23:20 PM | message detail

From: General_Zimbad | #044
I never like to call it this early but I'm going to say this is it.


I don't think its anywhere near over.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=1628&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

Half Life starts out REALLY slow.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/25/2009 9:23:30 PM | message detail
Currently 30% on what may very well be the strongest game in the contest yeah you really suck FF9 way to fail

You made Vivi cry. =(

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hochiminhX | Posted 4/25/2009 9:23:34 PM | message detail
Hochi? Surprised by results not going his way? I never thought I'd see the day.



What are you talking about? I have OoT > FF9 in my bracket. OoT is still doing awful. If FFVII were in OoT's place, it would have double what OoT has
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I may be fine and divine, but sometimes even contest know-nothings like Jose make better predictions than I...though not often
transience | Posted 4/25/2009 9:23:42 PM | message detail
well, r2 should be fun - a chance to measure FF8 vs. FF9, and maybe a chance for Starcraft to luck out. I'm gonna love seeing FF8 and FF9 measure up, that's a debate we've had for years.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 4/25/2009 9:23:50 PM | message detail
God damn you Starcraft.

Why was everyone expecting great things from StarCraft? Especially since Blizzard rallying hasn't been that impressive since.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/25/2009 9:23:53 PM | message detail

From: SonicRaptor | #050
I hate to call this early as well, but Half-Life is really done because there is no voting block it can succeed at.

Now the real question is if FF12 can beat Phoenix Wright.


Fixed.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/25/2009 9:24:21 PM | message detail
You're ruining the integrity of this line of topics debating the statistics of a popularity contest about video games!

Haha, I know right? Shame on me.

Seriously though, FF9 isn't really impressing me. Sure I had OOT > Half-Life, but that's mainly because I have no faith in FF9 at all, not that I expected strength out of Half-Life.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/25/2009 9:24:27 PM | message detail
Eh, 40% might be too high, but if FFVIII wants to argue that it's in that elusive top ten club, I think it's gotta do better than 35%. Hopefully I'm just overestimating FFVIII after getting burned by it; I'd be pleased to see it come crashing back down.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/25/2009 9:24:27 PM | message detail

From: SonicRaptor | #055
God damn you Starcraft.

Why was everyone expecting great things from StarCraft? Especially since Blizzard rallying hasn't been that impressive since.


We're talking about a game that nearly beat Smash Bros Melee.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/25/2009 9:24:54 PM | message detail
I consider OoT and LttP to be completely different animals in this day and age. I can't imagine LttP getting support on par with OoT just because one wears the "LOL BEST GAME EVER" tag and the other doesn't.

Plus, if character contests are any indication, FFVII loves to lose support in the final match.


If you want to use character contests as an indication (especially the last two featuring characters that were bandwagoned to all hell and led Link in both final matches) be my guest. I'd much rather point toward the Series Contest, where FF fell flat on its face against SMB and *still* got 49% on LoZ when the time came in the finals, but what do I know?
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transience | Posted 4/25/2009 9:25:36 PM | message detail
I think you're underestimating OOT, actually. there's a grand list of two games that would get 40% on OOT - CT, FF7.

of course half of that is because it'd SFF the christ out of other stuff, but hey!
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SonicRaptor | Posted 4/25/2009 9:26:10 PM | message detail
We're talking about a game that nearly beat Smash Bros Melee.

I am not denying StarCraft was a beast in that contest, nobody will deny that.

What I am saying is Blizzard rallying has not been a factor since and we have yet to see a game, series or character repeat what StarCraft pulled off in 2004. Diablo in the villains contest doesn't count because he faced what would have been turbofodder if placed in the regular character battle.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/25/2009 9:26:18 PM | message detail
So how long before Chrono Cross cuts Half-Life?
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Half-Life Points: 55/76
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/25/2009 9:26:33 PM | message detail
Does >30% on OoT with Chrono Cross in the poll make FFIX a candidate for the Top 20 Club?

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transience | Posted 4/25/2009 9:26:49 PM | message detail
I think we can safely say that Chrono Cross is at the very least equal to Xenogears
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SonicRaptor | Posted 4/25/2009 9:26:52 PM | message detail
It's also good to see FF9 is getting the respect it DAMN WELL deserves.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/25/2009 9:27:20 PM | message detail
Hang on now, I still feel pretty bad about my Starcraft pick for next round. Remember FF8 cleared 61% on it yesterday, and even Sephiroth was only able to LFF Cloud 6-7% or so, although FFIX probably holds up to SFF better than Seph did. Starcraft needs a lot to go its way just to get within range of rallying. I'd set that range at about 47% on FF8, or 2500 votes with 6 hours to go, assuming SC and FF8 combine for 40% or so of the vote.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/25/2009 9:27:22 PM | message detail
Does >30% on OoT with Chrono Cross in the poll make FFIX a candidate for the Top 20 Club?

Eh, not really. If anything it's probably SFFing CC a bit.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/25/2009 9:27:25 PM | message detail

From: SonicRaptor | #055
God damn you Starcraft.

Why was everyone expecting great things from StarCraft? Especially since Blizzard rallying hasn't been that impressive since.


I wasn't. I was expecting it to lay down and die next round. My bracket has FFVIII going very far, and I've pretty much conceded that Starcraft will ride yet another perfect storm to an undeserving result. I don't care what happens yesterday; I'll be very surprised to see it drop the ball when two FF games will be overlapping so heavily.
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hochiminhX | Posted 4/25/2009 9:27:30 PM | message detail
Does >30% on OoT with Chrono Cross in the poll make FFIX a candidate for the Top 20 Club?


No, but it makes OoT a candidate for the Bottom 20 Club

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I may be fine and divine, but sometimes even contest know-nothings like Jose make better predictions than I...though not often
Biolizard28 | Posted 4/25/2009 9:27:49 PM | message detail
Blizzard rallying was needed to keep Arthas from folding to an SFFd Ike.

Either Ike is a goddamn beast waiting to be unleashed, or Blizzard rallying is lol
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/25/2009 9:27:53 PM | message detail

From: transience | #065
I think we can safely say that Chrono Cross is at the very least equal to Xenogears


if FF9 wasn't here, I'd think Chrono Cross could beat Half Life
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/25/2009 9:27:54 PM | message detail
I think we can safely say that Chrono Cross is at the very least equal to Xenogears

I can feel alright with this.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/25/2009 9:28:13 PM | message detail

From: Karma Hunter | #060
I consider OoT and LttP to be completely different animals in this day and age. I can't imagine LttP getting support on par with OoT just because one wears the "LOL BEST GAME EVER" tag and the other doesn't.

Plus, if character contests are any indication, FFVII loves to lose support in the final match.


If you want to use character contests as an indication (especially the last two featuring characters that were bandwagoned to all hell and led Link in both final matches) be my guest. I'd much rather point toward the Series Contest, where FF fell flat on its face against SMB and *still* got 49% on LoZ when the time came in the finals, but what do I know?


Character contests were from the last two years and are our only fourway contests that we can compare this fourway contest to. Series was in 2006 and already has conflicted with this contest (Mario Kart impressing, lol Mega Man and Sonic).

Everyone knows characters =/= games, but the same things that affect and benefit characters should benefit games too, including bandwagons and such.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/25/2009 9:28:46 PM | message detail
I don't see what all the Starcraft fuss is about. It simply got beaten too badly for R2 to be really contention.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/25/2009 9:29:06 PM | message detail
*what happened yesterday* lol
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/25/2009 9:29:09 PM | message detail

From: Biolizard28 | #071
Blizzard rallying was needed to keep Arthas from folding to an SFFd Ike.

Either Ike is a goddamn beast waiting to be unleashed, or Blizzard rallying is lol


My part in that rallying ceased after the night since Arthas was so ahead of him I didn't even bother rallying during the day.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
RPGuy96 | Posted 4/25/2009 9:29:22 PM | message detail
Well, yeah, but I'd guess that LttP, Mario 3, and perhaps Melee could manage 40% on FFVII, which should be more or less the same thing as 40% on Ocarina.

Still, I think 38% or so would be the sweet spot for low tier elites, just like it was for the lower Noble Nine for a long time. Round 2's going to be messed up for obvious reasons but we should get a decent read on FFVIII wrt Ocarina in round 3, at least.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/25/2009 9:29:25 PM | message detail
FF8 is gonna make FF9 look completely silly next round.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/25/2009 9:29:27 PM | message detail
Eh, not really. If anything it's probably SFFing CC a bit.

...Did you just imply that CC is making FFIX do better?

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/25/2009 9:29:57 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #069
I wasn't. I was expecting it to lay down and die next round. My bracket has FFVIII going very far, and I've pretty much conceded that Starcraft will ride yet another perfect storm to an undeserving result. I don't care what happens yesterday; I'll be very surprised to see it drop the ball when two FF games will be overlapping so heavily.


Undeserving? It didn't cheat until SSBM. It was pure rallying strength.

Sounds deserved to me.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/25/2009 9:30:13 PM | message detail
...Did you just imply that CC is making FFIX do better?

Why yes I did.

But that's mainly because I think CC has more haters than a rabid fanbase on GameFAQs of all places.

And most Square fans would probably prefer FFIX unfortunately :/
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Biolizard28 | Posted 4/25/2009 9:30:32 PM | message detail
From: MyWorldIsCrono | #077
My part in that rallying ceased after the night since Arthas was so ahead of him I didn't even bother rallying during the day.

So it's the latter.

Starcraft was never going to repeat its last run. No ****ing way.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/25/2009 9:30:47 PM | message detail
THAT IS NOT HOW FANBASE OVERLAPS WORK

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/25/2009 9:31:13 PM | message detail
RBY:GS::FF8:FF9

Both will SFF their counterpart significantly enough that the bigger game will still advance.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/25/2009 9:31:26 PM | message detail
Albion just doesn't care about the other Blizzard franchises. That's one reason rallying wasn't an issue. Or maybe I'm giving him too much credit, who knows.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/25/2009 9:31:35 PM | message detail
Eh, not really. If anything it's probably SFFing CC a bit.

...Did you just imply that CC is making FFIX do better?


I bet I can guess who this is in response to
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Biolizard28 | Posted 4/25/2009 9:31:58 PM | message detail
From: M_e_g_a_6_4 | #081
Undeserving? It didn't cheat until SSBM. It was pure rallying strength.

Sounds deserved to me.


Cheating wasn't discovered until SSBM. It may very well have cheated throughout its division. Just because it didn't have a massive spike each match doesn't mean there wasn't stuffing.
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i have nothing against pedophiles especially the ones that actually act on their desires-Palmer
Now this is entertainment!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/25/2009 9:32:28 PM | message detail

From: Masato_Tanaka | #086
Albion just doesn't care about the other Blizzard franchises. That's one reason rallying wasn't an issue. Or maybe I'm giving him too much credit, who knows.


To be fair, I can rally maybe 1k votes on my own at max. 1k would do nothing in a match like yesterdays.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/25/2009 9:32:43 PM | message detail

From: Karma Hunter | #087
Eh, not really. If anything it's probably SFFing CC a bit.

...Did you just imply that CC is making FFIX do better?


I bet I can guess who this is in response to


Could you please stop acting like a ***** in the stats topic?

Thanks.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/25/2009 9:33:00 PM | message detail
THAT IS NOT HOW FANBASE OVERLAPS WORK

Sure it does! Explain to me why it wouldn't occur that way at least in some fashion.

It's not like what I'm stating hasn't been presented in this topic or contests before. There's a reason Mario beat the **** out of Samus in 05.
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The Straight Up G
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/25/2009 9:34:05 PM | message detail

Could you please stop acting like a ***** in the stats topic?

Thanks.


I appreciate this.

I know I'm just feeding this BS, but I really don't care for people starting e-fights just for the hell of it.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/25/2009 9:34:49 PM | message detail
Sure it does! Explain to me why it wouldn't occur that way at least in some fashion.

Adding another game into a poll that shares the same fanbase will NEVER make it do better. No matter how badly it SFFs it. It's common sense.

Add a game equal to CC's strength in and it and FFIX would be doing slightly better while HL and OoT would be doing slightly worse.

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/25/2009 9:35:17 PM | message detail
I just find it hilarious he was freaking out about a 500 post.

Especially since I did one on the previous topic that was much more offensive.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/25/2009 9:36:27 PM | message detail
so... ff12 > hl2 confirmed?
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/25/2009 9:36:57 PM | message detail
HL2>HL and FFIX>FFXII...but things aren't looking good for Gordon.

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/25/2009 9:37:29 PM | message detail
HL1 is doing well enough for HL2 to have a shot, assuming it doesn't fall off the map
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/25/2009 9:37:34 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #095
so... ff12 > hl2 confirmed?


Looking that way.

TP should impress in this match. Wouldn't be surprised to see 55%, honestly.

Also wouldn't be too surprised to see Phoenix Wright advance. :D
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/25/2009 9:37:54 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #096
HL2>HL and FFIX>FFXII...but things aren't looking good for Gordon.


FF12 also lacks SFF in that match, so I'd put it about ff9 level.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
red sox 777 | Posted 4/25/2009 9:38:15 PM | message detail
Adding another game into a poll that shares the same fanbase will NEVER make it do better. No matter how badly it SFFs it. It's common sense.

A minor correction: adding another game into a poll that shares the same fanbase will never make a game do better relative to its competition, assuming the competition is non-static (L-Block). A game's absolute percentage can go up if the other game is SFF'd hard enough.
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