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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 690

XxSoulxX | Posted 4/25/2009 9:57:58 AM | message detail
Get those stupid arguments out of here!
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Good Times,
Great Memories
voltch | Posted 4/25/2009 9:58:07 AM | message detail
i'm on the FF/ZELDA/pokemon bandwagon,i just forgot which one's stronger.
my theory is,when 2 bandwagon collides nothing makes sense anymore.
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Pearl FC:2450 0974 5734
*shakes fist*
charmander6000 | Posted 4/25/2009 11:03:06 AM | message detail
What about the Mario bandwagon?

Too bad the only games in this half division are Paper Mario and Super Mario Galaxy.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Starcraft > FFVIII Points: 53/72
HotSkitty | Posted 4/25/2009 11:05:13 AM | message detail
Starcraft finally appears to have stopped falling in percent.

and this makes Halo look PATHETIC.
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Never gonna give you up.
voltch | Posted 4/25/2009 11:05:46 AM | message detail
what mario bandwagon?
the plumber can run after the train for all i care,though with his jumping ability i'm sure he'll land right on it.
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Pearl FC:2450 0974 5734
*shakes fist*
KingBartz | Posted 4/25/2009 11:24:11 AM | message detail
also,FFX doesn't get the backlash it used to,that's reserved for XII,i haven't seen a meg ryan joke in years.

That's only because I haven't been here in years :p

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Check out my Guru bracket: http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=60
transience | Posted 4/25/2009 11:25:17 AM | message detail
Link's Awakening/Mega Man X/Streets of Rage 2 vs. Xenogears/Starcraft/Soul Calibur gogogo
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xyzzy
Tohoya | Posted 4/25/2009 11:27:15 AM | message detail
Why are we discounting WoW? 10 million subscribers say that it has a bunch of popularity. I'd expect it to be an upper midcarder even without rally potential.
HaRRicH | Posted 4/25/2009 11:30:24 AM | message detail
...damn, FF8 is plowing Starcraft. I missed most of the discussion from last night, but it looks like we have a new contender for a top-ten game.


How are people feeling about WoW now?
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
transience | Posted 4/25/2009 11:31:17 AM | message detail
I'm not sure if you make the logical jump from Starcraft to Warcraft.
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/25/2009 11:32:36 AM | message detail
It's not so much a jump as a trend. All the PC games - and any game that would've benefited from low votals - are disappointing.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
transience | Posted 4/25/2009 11:33:24 AM | message detail
Starcraft won a match with like 130,000 votes. I don't buy vote totals being an issue, not when you need *less* votes to win.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 4/25/2009 11:35:08 AM | message detail
my bad, it was 110k. it was still easily the highest voted on match of the contest and Starcraft won it.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/25/2009 11:36:19 AM | message detail
KP makes an excellent point regarding Half-Life's imminent collapse, due to half this contest's results (Doom, Starcraft, Contra, etc etc are flopping like fish).

When you really think about it, this loosely translates into recent casual bait like GTA, Halo and Generic Shooter Whatever (Left 4 Dead, Fallout 3, Gears of War). I won't be at all surprised if poll results are more recent games are more out of whack than anything we've seen so far. At this point, nothing will surprise me. Okami could score first place twice and I'd just be like "...huh".
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/25/2009 11:37:16 AM | message detail
Yeah, because SC was benefiting heavily from Halo anti-votes.

Remember Felix's 47% against Master Chief?

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
red sox 777 | Posted 4/25/2009 11:38:11 AM | message detail
Don't blame low votals for Starcraft losing here. 4-ways more than compensate for the increase in votals since 2004, and FFVIII + Starcraft are going to end up with few votes here than at least 2 and maybe 3 of Starcraft's 2004 matches. And, of course, Starcraft won the match in the 2004 contest with the highest votals.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
transience | Posted 4/25/2009 11:38:33 AM | message detail
sure. but look at any Starcraft match and you'll see it probably outscore FF8 today. the vote total argument holds no water because of the fourway thing.

now, if you want to say that we're trending away from PC games..that's another story.
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yzzyx
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/25/2009 11:39:58 AM | message detail
4-ways only nullifies the votals disadvantage if like 80+% of the people who voted for Starcraft in 2k4 vote for it in now.

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HaRRicH | Posted 4/25/2009 11:40:56 AM | message detail
How much better would SSB have done here in SC's place?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=38

Granted, I'd take SSB > SC, but I doubt it would have caught up to Starcraft.....
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/25/2009 11:41:36 AM | message detail
Man, I haven't been this happy when I saw a poll result in a long time! Perfect storm, here we come!

FFVIII has 61.24% on StarCraft. R/B/Y got 63.72% on Majora's Mask. StarCraft vs. Majora's Mask: Who wins?

I'm not sure I can be as confident as some people about FFVIII still taking second next round even with FFIX there, but it's got some breathing room to work with. Of course, OoT is going to smother the poll next round, so...I'd feel a lot more comfortable with Half-Life there. And I wouldn't automatically give this one to FFIX tomorrow. FFIX isn't this strong, I don't think. It'd probably be winning this poll, sure, but I doubt it'd be 60/40.

Also, I think this poll makes Diablo II and WoW look bad, though perhaps you can't make the comparison here. But I think it proves that WoW's rallying can't beat everything if it's just THAT weak.

StarCraft = Gonzaga
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 4/25/2009 11:41:46 AM | message detail
Why are we discounting WoW? 10 million subscribers say that it has a bunch of popularity. I'd expect it to be an upper midcarder even without rally potential.

Starcraft sold as many copies.

Sales =/= popularity on GameFAQs
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Starcraft > FFVIII Points: 53/72
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/25/2009 11:42:07 AM | message detail
Yay polls with 10k votes

SSB would be easily outdoing Starcraft here.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
Mumei | Posted 4/25/2009 11:43:14 AM | message detail
It might just be that StarCraft was completely inconsistent, and it was bandwagoned even more than we realized. It has no real reason to "go down" from last time (sequel announced and is probably slightly more relevant because of it, sold 3 million more copies since 2004, etc.)... for now, I am assuming that this is its "natural" strength, sans rallying, bandwagoning, etc., and that what happened in 2004 is the result of vastly increased strength from rallying and bandwagoning.

We'll see how that works out later.

Okami could score first place twice and I'd just be like "...huh".

That would be beautiful. Too bad it'll never happen.

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"Luxe, calme et volupte." - Charles Baudelaire, The Invitation to the Voyage
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/25/2009 11:43:32 AM | message detail

From: transience | Posted: 4/25/2009 2:33:24 PM | #262
Starcraft won a match with like 130,000 votes. I don't buy vote totals being an issue, not when you need *less* votes to win.


I do, because I think rally potential in 4-ways is an overblown factor. You can rally people all you want, but they're going to vote for whatever they want to in the end. I'm one of the few that thinks rallying matters more in 1v1, because there's only one other poll option to worry about. In this format, you have a potential rallied vote looking at three other options.

And as far as today is concerned, people are really overestimating Starcraft's competition from 2004. Halo, Kingdom Hearts and Wind Waker are hated games in mainstream internet circles. Grand Theft Auto the series is equally hated. Of course rallying against those games will be easier, especially given ungodly low vote totals. I know hindsight is 20-15, but is there any doubt Final Fantasy 8 doesn't break 53% (or more) in three straight matches if you put it in Starcraft's place in 2004?

Furthermore, do you guys even remember that contest? People saw that bracket and began the Starcraft > Halo rally hype WEEKS in advance. If you were in a Starcraft chat room, you saw rally bots. It was unavoidable. I truly believe that rally was more impressive than what L-Block did, cheating or no.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/25/2009 11:45:15 AM | message detail
Also, do I see people talking up FFVIII > FFX here? I can dig it! Not sure I buy it though, have to see what FFX does first!

But I've got FFX beating FFVIII when it's OoT/FFVIII/FFX/SSBM later on, but if it goes the other way, I can live with that!
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/25/2009 11:45:30 AM | message detail
It feels so good to be on Leon's side in something. I hated all the Squall/Magus arguing, especially given I ended up looking like a drooling idiot. Nothing new for me, but that one especially stung.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/25/2009 11:48:08 AM | message detail
The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced the Halo win wasn't even legit.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=1625&num=2

300 votes in 30 minutes at 2 in the morning?
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/25/2009 11:48:19 AM | message detail
Don't mess with Squall, son!

But I agree with whoever said that this performance at least rivals R/B/Y's performance from a couple of days ago. I think Wind Waker is stronger than Majora's Mask, and StarCraft beat WW (although the legitimacy of that win is questionable). FFVIII is doing about the same here as RBY did before.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/25/2009 11:51:06 AM | message detail

From: Mumei | Posted: 4/25/2009 2:43:14 PM | #273
It might just be that StarCraft was completely inconsistent, and it was bandwagoned even more than we realized. It has no real reason to "go down" from last time (sequel announced and is probably slightly more relevant because of it, sold 3 million more copies since 2004, etc.)... for now, I am assuming that this is its "natural" strength, sans rallying, bandwagoning, etc., and that what happened in 2004 is the result of vastly increased strength from rallying and bandwagoning..


It has plenty of reason to go down. 5 years is a long time, and the hype for Starcraft 2 is like 10% of what you'd expect it to be. You're seriously the only guy I ever see discussing the updates. Quite frankly, Diablo 3 and.... World of Warcraft (*sigh*).... has taken over. WoW changed Blizzard, it's undeniable.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/25/2009 11:52:32 AM | message detail
Heh, I had Diablo 2 getting to the round before the division finals through a combination of having it almost as strong as Starcraft and the fact that it's always paired with 2 Gamecube games after round 1

Well, I guess the odds of that are like, 0 now considering everything so far.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/25/2009 11:53:00 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 4/25/2009 2:48:19 PM | #278
Don't mess with Squall, son!

But I agree with whoever said that this performance at least rivals R/B/Y's performance from a couple of days ago. I think Wind Waker is stronger than Majora's Mask, and StarCraft beat WW (although the legitimacy of that win is questionable). FFVIII is doing about the same here as RBY did before.


I'm so sick of the assumption Majora's Mask HAS to be strong because it has "Zelda" in the title. Beating up Majora's Mask (which I maintain is the Zelda equivalent of Final Fantasy 9; NO ONE CARES about it outside of Board 8) doesn't count for squat. Yet.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/25/2009 11:54:10 AM | message detail
Translation: Final Fantasy 8 > Metal Gear Solid. Calling it now.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
Meeks54 | Posted 4/25/2009 11:54:51 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #277
The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced the Halo win wasn't even legit.

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=1625&num=2

300 votes in 30 minutes at 2 in the morning?




I know there has been someone quite vocal for 5 years saying that SC's entire run was not legit.

Of course it was not legitimate, I don't know how it took you 5 years to get this.


Halo>SC
KH>Halo
WW>KH
Then the match I so wanted to see, WW vs Melee.

It is such a shame that CeeJ let blatant cheating go in it's matches, even the one it actually got caught in, really screwing over the rankings for 128, and by extension through Final Fantasy VII, the entire bracket.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
transience | Posted 4/25/2009 11:56:04 AM | message detail
there's a limit to how low I'm willing to take Majora's Mask.

I'd probably take Starcraft over MM, but not by much - in other words, FF8/RBY *could* be close. I'd go RBY in a neutral setting though.

this division is far from neutral.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
Meeks54 | Posted 4/25/2009 11:58:47 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #281
I'm so sick of the assumption Majora's Mask HAS to be strong because it has "Zelda" in the title. Beating up Majora's Mask (which I maintain is the Zelda equivalent of Final Fantasy 9; NO ONE CARES about it outside of Board 8) doesn't count for squat. Yet.




What will MM have to do to show you how strong it is, and we need to have some type of bet that it will indeed do that, because I would just love to have your sig. Low tier Zelda still levels 80% of this field. I would not be surprised in the least if MM was still at top 25 game.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
HaRRicH | Posted 4/25/2009 11:59:52 AM | message detail
I'll take SC > LoZ:MM, but R/B/Y > FF8. Just a feeling.


I think rally potential in 4-ways is an overblown factor. You can rally people all you want, but they're going to vote for whatever they want to in the end. I'm one of the few that thinks rallying matters more in 1v1, because there's only one other poll option to worry about. In this format, you have a potential rallied vote looking at three other options.

There's some truth here, but I think it comes down to this: every person rallied is already a fan of the rallied game whereas the other games are TBA in that regard. Four-ways allow more options, yes, but let's look at Starcraft for a second. People rallied for Starcraft were likely rallied from people playing it on b.net or viewing a fan-site at the time. Starcraft is also the only PC/RTS/Blizzard-game in a poll without a mega-classic like SMB3 or LoZ:OoT, so the chances of rallied people favoring another game is rather unlikely.

Also, from my experiment on GameFAQs ASCII a few years ago when HBO linked to Arbiter/Mega Man and Arbiter killed the Blue Bomber, the numbers approximately said 80% of Arbiter's rallied people voted for it there. If that high of a percentage of rallied people would vote for Arbiter over Mega Man, I don't see any qualms with rallied people from b.net or other fan-sites massively favoring Starcraft over these games. We're doing four-ways now, but that's a huge percentage to overcome.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/25/2009 12:00:10 PM | message detail

From: Meeks54 | #285
What will MM have to do to show you how strong it is


Evidence.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SC > FF8 - Points: 51/72 Vote: FF8
HaRRicH | Posted 4/25/2009 12:05:00 PM | message detail
The only evidence we're gonna get for LoZ:MM will be coming in R2. That or the N64-VC poll...haha.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
Mumei | Posted 4/25/2009 12:09:52 PM | message detail
It has plenty of reason to go down. 5 years is a long time, and the hype for Starcraft 2 is like 10% of what you'd expect it to be. You're seriously the only guy I ever see discussing the updates. Quite frankly, Diablo 3 and.... World of Warcraft (*sigh*).... has taken over. WoW changed Blizzard, it's undeniable.

Maybe. I mean, things can obviously change in five years, but you would think that something that continues selling (even if they are probably mostly repurchases) eleven years after its release wouldn't have a huge drop.

And there's plenty of discussion that happens about the updates; you just aren't really interested in it, so you don't seek it out - right?

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"Luxe, calme et volupte." - Charles Baudelaire, The Invitation to the Voyage
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/25/2009 12:13:03 PM | message detail
Melee would have ****ing annihilated Wind Waker in 2004. Don't turn into another Slowflake.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
charmander6000 | Posted 4/25/2009 12:14:17 PM | message detail
So who are we expecting to flop more tomorrow FFIX or Half-Life?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Starcraft > FFVIII Points: 53/72
HaRRicH | Posted 4/25/2009 12:15:22 PM | message detail
For what it's worth, I don't think Starcraft 2 hype has been all that big on GameFAQs...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3105

...but then again, that poll's nearly a year old and most of the games listed are released, so who knows now.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
HaRRicH | Posted 4/25/2009 12:17:24 PM | message detail
I'm not convinced SSBM would have killed LoZ:WW when LoZ:WW was the newest LoZ-game and the most recent GotY-winner here while the SSB-series was still establishing itself...but yeah, SSBM will Superman LoZ:WW in a few days.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
voltch | Posted 4/25/2009 12:17:59 PM | message detail
half-life will probably flop more,i get the impression some of VIII's magivc might rub off on IX like how R/B/Y kept enough momentum going for it to give G/S an extra boost.

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Pearl FC:2450 0974 5734
*shakes fist*
XxSoulxX | Posted 4/25/2009 12:19:22 PM | message detail
... there's people expecting HL to flop?

This match is all about FFIX. If it's strong, it will make it through. If it flops, HL will make it through. Unless you believe HL will finish before CC or something, I don't see how it can flop.
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Good Times,
Great Memories
voltch | Posted 4/25/2009 12:22:29 PM | message detail
i really like HL and HL2s positions,with a zelda and a lower tier FF
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Pearl FC:2450 0974 5734
*shakes fist*
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/25/2009 12:25:08 PM | message detail
Starcraft just had a 40% update and still lost. roflcakes
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
voltch | Posted 4/25/2009 12:26:40 PM | message detail
for an obscure game xenogears is doing very well there,hanging around with something like soul calibur.
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Pearl FC:2450 0974 5734
*shakes fist*
ffmasterjose | Posted 4/25/2009 12:27:56 PM | message detail
Eh, I'm still not sold on FFIX taking second tomorrow. It strikes me as the Majora's Mask of the series, just from gut feeling. Not including Tactics in that just because it's not "traditional" Final Fantasy, but I do think XII will be the bigger bust. That's neither here nor there though.
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56/72 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Final Fantasy VIII > Starcraft | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/25/2009 12:29:27 PM | message detail
If you excluded OoT SFF, Majora's Mask would easily take 2nd tomorrow.

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