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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 690

UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/24/2009 8:59:34 PM | message detail
Who takes the role of zero?



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/24/2009 9:19:23 PM | message detail
tag
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
transience | Posted 4/24/2009 9:26:25 PM | message detail
'kay, time for the daily top 10-20 argument

Final Fantasy VIII
Metal Gear Solid
Pokemon RBY
Mario 64
Final Fantasy VI
Mario 1
Zelda 1
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yzzyx
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:28:57 PM | message detail
My classiest 500 post yet.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/24/2009 9:29:07 PM | message detail
GSC is Top 20 for sure. FF8 is probably Top 10.

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ZFS | Posted 4/24/2009 9:30:02 PM | message detail
Pokemon RBY
Final Fantasy VIII
Metal Gear Solid
Super Mario 64
Final Fantasy VI
Zelda 1
Mario 1

Or something like this, probably.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/24/2009 9:30:09 PM | message detail
From yesterday:

Mumei5 (5:48:35 PM): Including Tactics, what do you think the hierarchy of FF games is?
yoblazer33 (5:49:57 PM): 7 > 10 > 8 > 6 > 9 > Tactics > 12/4/1 > the rest

Hey, if you move Tactics a smidgen to the right, it doesn't look so bad!
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
Sonic_Factor | Posted 4/24/2009 9:30:17 PM | message detail
starcraft going up !
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:30:31 PM | message detail
I'm not ready to call any of them Top 10 until I see all of them in action in Round 2 at least. Though FF8, MGS, and RBY are looking fine right now and should be Top 20.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/24/2009 9:30:37 PM | message detail
Squall has had some pretty bad draws in the past (2002 of course, but he probably beats Sonic twice in 2k8 if Sora/Snake don't muck it up for him, and then of course there's the times he's had to run into Cloud). I can't imagine many people here would take Sonic > Squall right now, though, and MM and Crono certainly aren't safe in the slightest.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/24/2009 9:30:39 PM | message detail
Bringing this back from the previous thread...


I'd rather we beg Bacon to give Squall a shot at Mega Man or something.


For those who don't believe Squall could pull it off, ask yourselves, wouldn't you peg Squall at Vincent or Auron's level? If so, he has a very, very good shot at beating Mega Man or Sonic, right? Consider that, in his match against Vincent, he was juuuust barely edged out.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:30:49 PM | message detail
in before jumping the gun
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:30:55 PM | message detail
Right now, I'd go RBY > FFVIII > MGS > Mario 64 in terms of newcomers. Makin' a comparison at the moment but it kinda sucks because the old games only have ridiculous blowouts to their credit.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/24/2009 9:31:22 PM | message detail
I think the ralliers have gotten into full gear now. Only a 10 vote gain for FF8.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:31:53 PM | message detail
Squall would wipe the floor with Mega Man.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/24/2009 9:32:05 PM | message detail
And, hey, a StarCraft stall. Semi-respectability here we come maybe possibly
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ZFS | Posted 4/24/2009 9:32:17 PM | message detail
Ralliers more like FFVIII dropping off for an update! Time for a rebound next update.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/24/2009 9:32:22 PM | message detail
Honestly, I think Turtle has a decent point, though probably not for the reason he intended. The fact that VIII is so very different than your traditional FF game (leveling is a bad idea, no MP, stocking spells, the Junction system in general) is what makes me think if IX should advance tomorrow it'll hurt VIII way more in the next round than most people here seem to think. The playrate on IX is definitely lower, but it's a far more traditional and accessible RPG than VIII and that fact should pull a bunch of votes its way. I don't know if it'll be enough for VIII to place third (though it is what I have bracketed), but it won't be a 80/20 affair by any means.

That's not my point at all.

The people who would vote for 8 are the people who would vote for 7 whereas the people that would vote for 9 are more than likely people who were with the series before 7, and were butthurt by the huge leaps forward 7 and 8 took and embraced the huge step backward that was 9.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:33:28 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #018
Honestly, I think Turtle has a decent point, though probably not for the reason he intended. The fact that VIII is so very different than your traditional FF game (leveling is a bad idea, no MP, stocking spells, the Junction system in general) is what makes me think if IX should advance tomorrow it'll hurt VIII way more in the next round than most people here seem to think. The playrate on IX is definitely lower, but it's a far more traditional and accessible RPG than VIII and that fact should pull a bunch of votes its way. I don't know if it'll be enough for VIII to place third (though it is what I have bracketed), but it won't be a 80/20 affair by any means.

That's not my point at all.

The people who would vote for 8 are the people who would vote for 7 whereas the people that would vote for 9 are more than likely people who were with the series before 7, and were butthurt by the huge leaps forward 7 and 8 took and embraced the huge step backward that was 9.


That's so cute. :3
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/24/2009 9:34:00 PM | message detail
I've always said Squall > Vincent > Auron since 2006. Kingdom Hearts 2 is what gives me the cofidence to take Squall > Vincent if they ever rematch. Vincent got lucky in 2005 with Advent Children.

That said, I think Mega Man is still a bit stronger than that, but I would definitely take all 3 of the near nobles over Sonic the Failhog.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/24/2009 9:34:47 PM | message detail
But it's actually true. FFIX WAS much closer to FF IV-VI than the other two games. In fact, it was intended to be a throwback. B_T is wrong with his reasoning, but his conclusion is sound.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:34:58 PM | message detail
I'd take Guybrush Threepwood over Sonic the Hedgehog. :D
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/24/2009 9:35:39 PM | message detail
And I fully expect Kamikazi Failtato to chime in and say that FF9 was "a throwback" to the older games.

Last I checked, the SNES Final Fantasies didn't feature poorly designed, 1-dimensional characters and a lame-as-all-hell plot (well, maybe 5, but at least 5 had great gameplay, something else 9 lacked).
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
red sox 777 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:35:49 PM | message detail
10 vote gain for an update? Sound the alarms!

Oh, and looking at 2004, I think Starcraft actually had a decent day vote. Consider its opponents: Halo, Kingdom Hearts, Zelda, and Smash. With opponents like that anyone's day vote would look bad. And SC really didn't lose very much percentage with the day to any of them- Halo's vaunted ASV took it from a tiny lead to an 1100 vote lead- not much in 1v1 considering it's Halo.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:36:01 PM | message detail
If the Antichrist made it into the contest, I would also choose him over Sonic the Hedgehog.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/24/2009 9:36:13 PM | message detail
If that Kanzaris guy is KP,

lol
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/24/2009 9:36:47 PM | message detail
SC makes it a little closer in the night, but I doubt the day is kind to its %.

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ZFS | Posted 4/24/2009 9:36:54 PM | message detail
that FF9 was "a throwback" to the older games.

Uhh, it was.

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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:37:17 PM | message detail
don't fall for the trap HM
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I'm gonna keep on going, I know I'll be strong.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/24/2009 9:37:29 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #028
that FF9 was "a throwback" to the older games.

Uhh, it was.


Read the rest of the post.

And stop saying SC.

There's 2 SC games in this poll.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Meeks54 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:38:29 PM | message detail
1 OoT
2 FF VII
3 RBY
4 CT
5 ALttP
6 SMB 3
7 Melee
8 SM 64
9 TP
10 FF VIII.
11-14 who cares?
Dog crap WoW
LOL Starcraft

My current ranking.


Yeah, I think RBY would absolutely maul everything not named OoT or FF VII. I don't care if you beat Wand of Gamelon, if you crush Zelda by that much, you are ungodly. No one here believes CT could have done that to MM, right?

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:38:43 PM | message detail
Samuel L Jackson VS Solid Snake

Who would win?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/24/2009 9:39:27 PM | message detail
And I fully expect Kamikazi Failtato to chime in and say that FF9 was "a throwback" to the older games.

I've refrained from commenting on anything you've said this night (except to chime in and agree once), so I'd prefer if you kept your toddler-like insults to the games and wait for Harrich to come in and say whatever we're all thinking towards you.

Thanks.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/24/2009 9:39:40 PM | message detail
Bad-ass Mother ****er vs Bad-ass Mother****er

I'd like to see that
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/24/2009 9:41:15 PM | message detail
MWC/BT Stats and Discussion time to bail out of here before Albion shows up
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:41:35 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #033
And I fully expect Kamikazi Failtato to chime in and say that FF9 was "a throwback" to the older games.

I've refrained from commenting on anything you've said this night (except to chime in and agree once), so I'd prefer if you kept your toddler-like insults to the games and wait for Harrich to come in and say whatever we're all thinking towards you.

Thanks.


Eh, just because Turtle's opinions are wrong doesn't make him less awesome.

He's hilarious because of his wrong opinions. <3
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:41:51 PM | message detail
Starcraft's Path to Victory:

FFVIII's lead at:

1 AM | 800
3 AM | 1200
6 AM | 1500
9 AM | 1600
3 PM | 2200
6 PM | 2200
8 PM | 2000
9 PM | 1600
10 PM | 1100
11 PM | 600
Final | -100

Let's do this
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/24/2009 9:42:13 PM | message detail
Albion is too busy training. The effort may be fruitless today, but it nonetheless will make him a more efficient machine on WoW Day.
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Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:42:59 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #038
Albion is too busy training. The effort may be fruitless today, but it nonetheless will make him a more efficient machine on WoW Day.


He's probably saving up his rallying power for Round 2, where it'll matter more.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/24/2009 9:43:38 PM | message detail
Great, now I'm imagining Albion furiously clicking Create New Topic as fast as possible on as many forums as he can. Possibly with the Rocky theme playing in the background.

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Justin_Crossing | Posted 4/24/2009 9:44:26 PM | message detail
Albion's training today will AID him with WoW rallying.

For WoW he's got a whole new trick up his sleeve.

And I was impressed when he told me the plan.
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Please sign this topic. Don't ask questions. Just do it.
SonicRaptor | Posted 4/24/2009 9:44:35 PM | message detail
I never once thought StarCraft had a chance to repeat 2004, times have changed.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:46:05 PM | message detail
And Ulti's new trolling gimmick didn't strike me until just now.

It always takes me two-three days before I realize Ulti's trolling.
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transience | Posted 4/24/2009 9:46:06 PM | message detail
I think we need some Crono/Vincent comparisons here.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:46:28 PM | message detail
Oh, and hey, we have another example of LFF not mattering. In fact, even with FFVIII beating up StarCraft, Xenogears is fighting with Soul Calibur.

If I was going to apply anything in this match towards tomorrow's, that would be it, not this silly FF = instant win stuff (especially a day after Tactics).
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/24/2009 9:46:36 PM | message detail
I don't think anyone will need to bother rallying if FFIX is there. Throwback or not, the overlap between the two will be significant, Ocarina probably hurts them a bit as well, and Starcraft stands out like a swollen wang.

It actually sucks if you think about it. Everyone who called FFVIII an absolute beast of a game (probably the third or perhaps even second strongest in the series) has been validated. This is the first time we see it without FFVII's massive shadow, it's kicking ass, and it may all amount to nothing due to crappy bracket placement. Sucks to be Squall yet again.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:46:50 PM | message detail
And I'm gonna mutilate myself for the night.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/24/2009 9:47:47 PM | message detail
I'm gonna go the RBY route and say that the split simply won't be enough for Starcraft to capitalize on. It's getting murdered here.

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/24/2009 9:47:48 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #046
I don't think anyone will need to bother rallying if FFIX is there. Throwback or not, the overlap between the two will be significant, Ocarina probably hurts them a bit as well, and Starcraft stands out like a swollen wang.

It actually sucks if you think about it. Everyone who called FFVIII an absolute beast of a game (probably the third or perhaps even second strongest in the series) has been validated. This is the first time we see it without FFVII's massive shadow, it's kicking ass, and it may all amount to nothing due to crappy bracket placement. Sucks to be Squall yet again.


This is the ray of sunshine in all of this. <3

Especially if RBY advances and FF8 doesn't.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 4/24/2009 9:48:09 PM | message detail
Yup, I think making Squall have terrible matches against monstrous noble niners is a running gag by now. Sort of like Snake/Knuckles on second round.