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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 689

MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/23/2009 10:30:39 PM | message detail
well laharl's dropping and snake's rising sure would have predicted this match..
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: MGS > FFT - Points: 49/68 Vote: G/S
MetricTrout | Posted 4/23/2009 10:31:44 PM | message detail
Hey, thanks for reminding me, red sox.

Crono/Vincent 2007 projections (with your standard warnings about how this is probably irrelevant):

Crono's percentage on Vincent at this time: 56.25%
Crono's final percentage: 48.58%
Percentage Loss: 7.67%

MGS's percentage on Pokemon at this time: 53.69%
Projection based on Crono/Vincent: 46.02%

And Pokemon has an awesome ASV, while MGS has a pretty poor one.

Aw yeah, time to do this!
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/23/2009 10:39:24 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #051
well laharl's dropping and snake's rising sure would have predicted this match..


And Cloud beating Link in 2003 would have predicted FF7 > OoT.

And Laharl dropping? He was at his strongest point ever last year thanks to the 400 crappy Disgaia games.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/23/2009 10:41:07 PM | message detail
Pretty sure he was talking about Ramza dropping to Laharl's level.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
RPGuy96 | Posted 4/23/2009 10:41:27 PM | message detail
Pokecut

(hey where's that FFT cut)
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96
Lopen | Posted 4/23/2009 10:44:29 PM | message detail
Laharl rSFFed Ramza to hell. No one who has played both games that are in their right mind would vote Ramza.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
hochiminhX | Posted 4/23/2009 10:49:17 PM | message detail
It's quite sad to see a masterpiece like FFT lose to a children's game. But it matters not. What we forgot to consider is that FFT and MGS share a similar fanbase. We saw this in FFVII/MGS. Two PSX games are draining each other allowing GSC to sneak by.
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The corpse's bitter crimson tears flow and mingle with the endless sand, feeding the chaos within me and making me stronger.
Mr3790 | Posted 4/23/2009 10:51:22 PM | message detail
G/S(C)>FFT

IMO
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AC:WW Code: Name:Mr.378 Town:Darkcity FC: 4210-5769-8462
GENO WHIRL!
dragoontheguy | Posted 4/23/2009 10:51:42 PM | message detail
It's quite sad to see a masterpiece like FFT lose to a children's game. But it matters not. What we forgot to consider is that FFT and MGS share a similar fanbase. We saw this in FFVII/MGS. Two PSX games are draining each other allowing GSC to sneak by.

Butthurt much?
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"A casual stroll through the lunatic asylum shows that faith does not prove anything." - Friedrich Nietzsche
http://www.last.fm/user/dragoontheguy
nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/23/2009 10:55:02 PM | message detail

From: hochiminhX
It's quite sad to see a masterpiece like FFT lose to a children's game. But it matters not. What we forgot to consider is that FFT and MGS share a similar fanbase. We saw this in FFVII/MGS. Two PSX games are draining each other allowing GSC to sneak by.


Hmm... but I'm sure I remember ...

From: hochiminhX
I cannot stress this enough. GSC is irrelevant. Nobody cares about it. That is why it got the holy hell knocked out of it by Xenogears.


Yeah, that's what I thought.
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Ah hochi.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/23/2009 10:55:18 PM | message detail

From: Karma Hunter | #054
Pretty sure he was talking about Ramza dropping to Laharl's level.


I would say that Laharl went up more than Ramza going down. I'd expect Laharl to 60-40 Vyse nowadays.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
red sox 777 | Posted 4/23/2009 10:57:49 PM | message detail
Even in losing, Hochi still won his sig bet. Just like even when Cloud failed to place in 2007, he still beat those who had Link winning!
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/23/2009 11:00:36 PM | message detail
You cannot grasp the true form of hochi's bracket - do not even try to comprehend!
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/23/2009 11:03:38 PM | message detail
I would say that Laharl went up more than Ramza going down. I'd expect Laharl to 60-40 Vyse nowadays.

Or maybe a combination of both.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
hochiminhX | Posted 4/23/2009 11:06:53 PM | message detail
Hmm, I still won my sig bet and MGS is still ravishing GSC limb from limb. Once again I have the last laugh.
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The corpse's bitter crimson tears flow and mingle with the endless sand, feeding the chaos within me and making me stronger.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 11:09:42 PM | message detail
Hey wait a minute I called this one.

Is there anyone here who called both Poke-matches?
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
hochiminhX | Posted 4/23/2009 11:10:13 PM | message detail
MetricTrout, you lost to me. Time for you to pay the ultimate price... with your sig


This will be your sig for one week


I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.

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The corpse's bitter crimson tears flow and mingle with the endless sand, feeding the chaos within me and making me stronger.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 11:10:30 PM | message detail
Trout was too bold with his sig bet, but it was hilarious that hoci was still the only one who took him up on it.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 11:10:50 PM | message detail
one of us
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/23/2009 11:11:37 PM | message detail
Loads of people called both, believe it or not the majority of people who called one called the other. Funky fact that is not really that surprising. But the guru shows it to be.
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Clever guru.
dragoontheguy | Posted 4/23/2009 11:11:49 PM | message detail
Hmm, I still won my sig bet and MGS is still ravishing GSC limb from limb. Once again I have the last laugh.

I don't know, you seem pretty pissed off that FFT is getting destroyed.
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"A casual stroll through the lunatic asylum shows that faith does not prove anything." - Friedrich Nietzsche
http://www.last.fm/user/dragoontheguy
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/23/2009 11:11:57 PM | message detail
Time for you to pay the ultimate price... with your sig

sigged
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turnturnturn your brain in
Time for you to pay the ultimate prince... with your sig
VegetaMishima | Posted 4/23/2009 11:12:15 PM | message detail
ya these matchups or horrible, too bad i just made a topic on that.


seriously, BS.
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Kenny freaking powers!
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/23/2009 11:14:01 PM | message detail
I don't know, you seem pretty pissed off that FFT is getting destroyed.

an analyst not even fit to hold hochi's considerable psychoanalysis reports
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turnturnturn your brain in
ESY16 | Posted 4/23/2009 11:17:17 PM | message detail
Tag. Haven't posted in one of these in a while!

Grim contest for me so far, though it has been looking up a bit lately.
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Operator of the Would You Hit It Topics! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=42879107
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/23/2009 11:21:47 PM | message detail
Actually after considerable disussion let's go with something else...

...oh, and it looks like FFT finally got that cut it was looking for a little bit back. Pokemon's not *completely* dying with the night here (kinda like last night), though we'll have to see if that's mirrored in a similarly unimpressive morning vote
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 11:25:21 PM | message detail
WHOA @ THAT SIG
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
hochiminhX | Posted 4/23/2009 11:27:04 PM | message detail
I don't know, you seem pretty pissed off that FFT is getting destroyed.


I am. I'm mad as hell. I was also pissed when you sprayed chemical orange on my people and gave them cancer. But I'm not surprised that a joke game is beating a good game in the same way I'm not surprised you Americans used barbaric tactics.

Now then, there has been rumblings that FFVIII can beat Starcraft tomorrow. There is no way, not with Xenogears. Once again, I, Hochiminh, will take challengers for a sig bet. Anyone have the wherewithal to accept my challenge?

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The corpse's bitter crimson tears flow and mingle with the endless sand, feeding the chaos within me and making me stronger.
red sox 777 | Posted 4/23/2009 11:30:16 PM | message detail
Looks like FFT got its cut!

And Pokemon isn't completely dying with the night vote? Look at this:

At this point (2:26), Crono had 55.51% on Vincent. He fell 6.93% from here to the end.

GS currently has 57.60% on FFT. Using Crono/Vincent, it is projected to win with 50.77%.

Notice how its projection now is lower than earlier, meaning GS is falling off relative to FFT faster than Crono fell off relative to Vincent. That'll probably change when GS doesn't completely die in Europe, but it is getting killed with the night vote right now.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
dragoontheguy | Posted 4/23/2009 11:31:22 PM | message detail
I am. I'm mad as hell. I was also pissed when you sprayed chemical orange on my people and gave them cancer. But I'm not surprised that a joke game is beating a good game in the same way I'm not surprised you Americans used barbaric tactics.

Uh, my nation wasn't involved in vietnam, but okay.

I haven't been around these parts of the interwebs in a while, are you the resident troll here or what?
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"A casual stroll through the lunatic asylum shows that faith does not prove anything." - Friedrich Nietzsche
http://www.last.fm/user/dragoontheguy
Lopen | Posted 4/23/2009 11:33:19 PM | message detail
Man, I kind of want to sig bet with Hochi just so I can join the cult
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Lopen | Posted 4/23/2009 11:34:55 PM | message detail
Although, I have defeated Hochi in the art of sig combat one (1) straight time(s). Perhaps it would be suicidal for him to pursue a duel against me.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
HaRRicH | Posted 4/23/2009 11:47:57 PM | message detail
I suddenly feel guilty...!
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
red sox 777 | Posted 4/24/2009 12:06:48 AM | message detail
Pokemon GS by the hour against Final Fantasy Tactics:

1:00 | 59.32%
2:00 | 55.91%
3:00 | 53.44%

Crono by the hour against Vincent 2007:

1:00 | 56.57%
2:00 | 54.83%
3:00 | 52.08%

4:00 | 51.40%
5:00 | 43.78%
6:00 | 41.43%
7:00 | 43.06%

Current Projection based on Crono/Vincent trends: GS wins with 50.54%.

This match has been keeping up (and exceeding in fact!) with the brisk pace set by Vincent and Crono, but the part of the match that sets that match apart from almost all others is what happened in the next 4 hours. FFT will do well; it will probably win some hours, but you can't expect it to do what Vincent did here. Past 4, keeping pace with Crono/Vincent 2007 will be a lot harder- Vincent himself couldn't do it last year.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
transience | Posted 4/24/2009 12:07:44 AM | message detail
haha I swear you do this just to make me laugh
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yzzyx
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/24/2009 12:09:37 AM | message detail
Do not belittle our resident Cronologist!
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
Lopen | Posted 4/24/2009 12:11:17 AM | message detail
Best gimmick in the history of these topics imhhho. It always leaves me feeling hopeful.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
ZFS | Posted 4/24/2009 12:14:31 AM | message detail
It ain't a legit comeback unless the Crono/Vincent trends match up !

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http://i44.tinypic.com/hwh4yo.gif
transience | Posted 4/24/2009 12:23:19 AM | message detail
just think -- all you need to hope for is a bigger comeback than Vincent/Crono against something that won't die come 3am and a day vote worse than Crono's!

believe
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/24/2009 12:25:33 AM | message detail
You say that tran man... but look at the trends. Just look at them!

that's what I thought
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turnturnturn your brain in
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transience | Posted 4/24/2009 12:25:53 AM | message detail
they're.. they're.. they're trendy!
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/24/2009 12:27:32 AM | message detail

From: hochiminhX | Posted: 4/24/2009 2:27:04 AM | #078
I don't know, you seem pretty pissed off that FFT is getting destroyed.


I am. I'm mad as hell. I was also pissed when you sprayed chemical orange on my people and gave them cancer. But I'm not surprised that a joke game is beating a good game in the same way I'm not surprised you Americans used barbaric tactics.

Now then, there has been rumblings that FFVIII can beat Starcraft tomorrow. There is no way, not with Xenogears. Once again, I, Hochiminh, will take challengers for a sig bet. Anyone have the wherewithal to accept my challenge?


I think people mean FF8 > Starcraft in round 2.

And I *really* like this guy now. Call out the hypocritical Americans for what they really are.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
alexazx | Posted 4/24/2009 12:33:49 AM | message detail
After seeing MGS having no trouble whatsoever with Pokemon G/S, I feel confident in RYB not making it past the division finals. OOT and MGS is just too strong.

Pokemon RYB is probably a tiny bit stronger than G/S, and I think RYB will beat G/S the next round, but as standalone games, I think both of them have the Pokemon fanclub on their side. It's not like there was any major difference between the 1st and 2nd generation Pokemon. People who only played RYB will probably vote for G/S today.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/24/2009 12:35:54 AM | message detail
If matches still started at 3 AM we'd be starting out with Pokemon and FFT going 50-50. That's be a nice match
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/24/2009 12:38:14 AM | message detail
Pokemon RYB is probably a tiny bit stronger than G/S, and I think RYB will beat G/S the next round, but as standalone games, I think both of them have the Pokemon fanclub on their side. It's not like there was any major difference between the 1st and 2nd generation Pokemon.

This line of thinking has clearly never failed so I will embrace it as fully as is appropriate~
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turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/24/2009 12:51:28 AM | message detail
I am wondering what kind of split we'll get from these two next round, and while it'll be bad, I don't think it'll be anything near what we'll see from SM64/YI (which I think can go 85/15) RBY looked unheard of yesterday, GS isn't looking like something that'll take such a beating. Its 45% on Metal Gear Solid (not to mention its 57% on FFT) is nothing to scoff at, and it leads me to believe that a great scenario for RBY would be a tripling.

What I'm far more interested in, though, is the combined percentage for the two Pokemon games. I might get some heat for this after yesterday, but with MGS in the poll, I really doubt they combine for 50%.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/24/2009 1:01:56 AM | message detail
Wait, that doesn't sound nearly so unreasonable after some quick number crunching. In fact, I'd say "under 40%" before I say "approaching 50%."
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
consolefreak | Posted 4/24/2009 1:10:53 AM | message detail
I know you're only being half serious with this Crono stuff Red Sox (considering the sizable difference in trends between Pokemon and CT), but you can't just subtract the same percentage and make a valid comparison. Since GS had a higher percentage to begin with, it was in a better position to lose percentage.


Crono's percentage on Vincent at this time: 56.51%
Crono's final percentage: 48.58%
Percentage Loss: 7.93%

GS's percentage on FFT at this time: 58.94%
Projection based on Crono/Vincent: 51.01%


A better projection would have been 58.94 / (56.51/48.58) = 50.70%

I don't want to be an ass or anything, and I realize this is a disgustingly small difference, but it could be a bigger difference in different analogies.


What I'm far more interested in, though, is the combined percentage for the two Pokemon games. I might get some heat for this after yesterday, but with MGS in the poll, I really doubt they combine for 50%.

I would be very surprised if the Pokemon games combined for over 50%. I think MGS will end up around 35%, MM around 23-24%. A small window to have it beat R/B/Y yet, though I have to admit that looks extremely unlikely.
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Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino
lightsout06 | Posted 4/24/2009 1:12:04 AM | message detail
so will MGS2 and 3 be this strong. i already know that 4 will dominate but MGS2 has FFX and silent hill and MGS3 has the Chief and WoW. i dont see them coming through the prelims
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/24/2009 1:23:57 AM | message detail
I would be very surprised if the Pokemon games combined for over 50%. I think MGS will end up around 35%, MM around 23-24%. A small window to have it beat R/B/Y yet, though I have to admit that looks extremely unlikely

Yep. The tables really are switched for Pokemon in the next round. I also expect Zelda to look better (Zelda should never look that bad, and expecting it twice in a row just seems like wanting to get burned), and MGS obviously has the big stand-out factor there, so I wouldn't be surprised if MGS and MM combined for over 60%. Granted, even if they shoot that high, a mere 70/30 Pokemon split would all but guarantee RBY a trip to the division finals.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.