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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 688

HaRRicH | Posted 4/23/2009 2:19:43 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy Tactics might flop, or it might not.

Daring move, hoch!


Are we going to start saying PD and BK are being sapped by LoZ:MM when LoZ:LttP couldn't keep DKC from beating Doom? DKC is Rare and more closely related to Nintendo than PD or BK while LoZ:LttP would kill LoZ:MM...so let's avoid damage control like that for now. SFF/LFF hasn't been much of a factor so far, and this match is a shocker to all of us...so -- while I know we're all going to blabber on about what might be the case -- patience will prove useful.

Besides, it looks like GE may not have been SFF'd much by LoZ:OoT...so I doubt LoZ:MM is crushing PD with SFF here. I'm not crazy about Pokemon R/B/Y being a super-tier game, but...it might be the case; we've never really seen LoZ-contestants have to bow down like this outside of Tingle before, and LoZ:MM is no Tingle (nor are PD/BK). We'll see.
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Yesmar | Posted 4/23/2009 2:23:45 PM | message detail
Red/Blue/Yellow should definitely beat FFT next round, but I don't think that any of the talk for G/S upsetting it tomorrow will result in anything. Would anyone here put RBY much higher than MGS? And while MGS beats FFT with ease now most likely, it's probably not to as large an extent as the two Pokemon games. And FFT is most liklely nowhere close to Xenogears '04, unless Xenogears got SFF'd pretty badly. FF1 should have shown that franchise voting is still very much in effect.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/23/2009 2:24:46 PM | message detail

From: Master Moltar
I'm willing to accept any explanation that has MM looking as strong as we thought it was, even if it means RBY > FF7 or some nonsense.

I'll believe


A lot of people were throwing round the idea that MM might be equal to WW for a long time ...

RBY = 65.7% on FFVII.
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I believe.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/23/2009 2:25:35 PM | message detail
FF1 should have shown that franchise voting is still very much in effect.

But after this...I am really starting to doubt franchise voting being a big factor.
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Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/23/2009 2:26:04 PM | message detail
Would anyone disagree that MM is the weakest Zelda ever to get into a game contest?
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Yesmar | Posted 4/23/2009 2:28:05 PM | message detail
But after this...I am really starting to doubt franchise voting being a big factor.

Link's Awakening disagrees. Majora's Mask is really not that popular in relation to other Zeldas. And this is coming from someone for whom it's their favorite game of all time. It still looks to be a fairly solid midcarder. Doubling Perfect Dark with ease is nothing to be ashamed of.
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MetricTrout | Posted 4/23/2009 2:30:08 PM | message detail
Majora's Mask is still stronger than Link's Awakening.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/23/2009 2:31:21 PM | message detail
Majora's Mask is still stronger than Link's Awakening.

What makes you so sure?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/23/2009 2:31:46 PM | message detail

From: Yesmar | Posted: 4/23/2009 5:28:05 PM | #056
But after this...I am really starting to doubt franchise voting being a big factor.

Link's Awakening disagrees. Majora's Mask is really not that popular in relation to other Zeldas. And this is coming from someone for whom it's their favorite game of all time. It still looks to be a fairly solid midcarder. Doubling Perfect Dark with ease is nothing to be ashamed of.


This is such a stupid post. EVERYONE with a Game Boy in the late 1990s owned and loved Link's Awakening. LA is not some fluke game like Wind Waker 2004 was. LA being strong has jack **** to do with franchise voting, and this is also true for Final Fantasy 1. That game has legitimate strength. I don't know how many times it has to be in a poll before people agree with this.

If "franchise voting" (whatever this term even means) meant anything, then all the games of a franchise would be strong regardless of anything else. So when Wand of Ghamelon wins a poll, I'll buy into this made-up voting factor meaning something. Until then, it just looks like people making up factors to justify dumb picks.
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MetricTrout | Posted 4/23/2009 2:32:47 PM | message detail
Also, why are we still discussing FFT? Pokemon Gold/Silver > FFT is a lock, the real question is if it can defeat Metal Gear Solid.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/23/2009 2:32:51 PM | message detail
If we ever see Majora's Mask and Link's Awakening in a poll together, I'll bet my account on the latter being the stronger of the two. I guarantee LA would destroy MM in a poll.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/23/2009 2:33:35 PM | message detail
I also think MM would lose to Link's Awakening.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/23/2009 2:36:00 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | Posted: 4/23/2009 5:32:47 PM | #060
Also, why are we still discussing FFT? Pokemon Gold/Silver > FFT is a lock, the real question is if it can defeat Metal Gear Solid.


Yeah as the biggest FFT fan here, I really regret changing my mind on MGS > RBY in round 2. It was nothing more than one of those "it'll lose, but I have to make a fanboy pick or two". Similar to why I took EB > YI. no logic behind it, just throwing some support out there.

This is not the same FFT that beat MGS in 2004, but I'm not sold on GSC being worth anything. There's RBY, a huge gap, and then everything else when it comes to mainstream voting for Pokemon on this site. Everyone played and liked RBY, and from there it became pretentious and weeded out the casuals. GSC losing to Xenogears twice wasn't some random fluke, though GSC will obviously get a boost from being in a poll one day after RBY. It might beat FFT, but beating today's MGS strength is ludicrous.
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MetricTrout | Posted 4/23/2009 2:37:13 PM | message detail
What makes you so sure?

Votals. Majora's Mask has 26237 votes right now, while being SFFed by 2 N64 games and another Nintendo game. Link's Awakening had 27034 at this point, despite having no other Nintendo-published games or other Game Boy games in the poll.

How much would you expect Chrono Trigger to score in this poll? Based on the votals, Pokemon looks to be slightly stronger than Chrono Trigger in strength.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/23/2009 2:37:19 PM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | Posted: 4/23/2009 5:33:35 PM | #062
I also think MM would lose to Link's Awakening.


This is only up for debate because people are in damage control defending the horrendously awful MM > RBY pick. That pick is Samus > Mario levels of dumb.

Yeah, I went there.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/23/2009 2:37:41 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #051
Besides, it looks like GE may not have been SFF'd much by LoZ:OoT...so I doubt LoZ:MM is crushing PD with SFF here. I'm not crazy about Pokemon R/B/Y being a super-tier game, but...it might be the case; we've never really seen LoZ-contestants have to bow down like this outside of Tingle before, and LoZ:MM is no Tingle (nor are PD/BK). We'll see.


Tingle's first appearance was MM... Maybe MM is getting huge droves of anti-votes toward Pokemon by fans who think even the kiddy Pokemon is much more tolerable than that ugly-ass pedophile?

Mass amounts of people banding together to anti-vote Tingle would be even more glorious than Pokemon RBY making FF7 **** its pants.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/23/2009 2:37:57 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be at all surprised if RBY were close to Chrono Trigger in strength and ended up a top ten game.
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MetricTrout | Posted 4/23/2009 2:40:00 PM | message detail
This is not the same FFT that beat MGS in 2004, but I'm not sold on GSC being worth anything. There's RBY, a huge gap, and then everything else when it comes to mainstream voting for Pokemon on this site. Everyone played and liked RBY, and from there it became pretentious and weeded out the casuals. GSC losing to Xenogears twice wasn't some random fluke, though GSC will obviously get a boost from being in a poll one day after RBY. It might beat FFT, but beating today's MGS strength is ludicrous.

I completely disagree. I actually think there is a distinct possibility, though small, that GSC could actually be stronger than RBY in a direct matchup. Either way, though I would not take GSC to be any less than around 40% of RBY strength.

Unless you have numerical evidence to back up your statement, rather than opinions.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/23/2009 2:41:17 PM | message detail
I'd sooner buy RBY being a new Top 5 Game then MM being weak. The game isn't Yoshi's Island; while the black sheep, it has a lot of fans, and it's remembered as one of the more unique Zelda games (in a good way).

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/23/2009 2:42:11 PM | message detail
GSC would probably get doubled by RBY without taking SFF into account.

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/23/2009 2:42:18 PM | message detail
The real test will be advancing with Starcraft/MGS/OoT. That's when we'll know whether RBY has the strength and ability to resist SFF and the unwavering fanbase that could carry it to victory. As L-Block has showed us, RBY has a solid chance to advance, and if it can withhold OoT and two other strong-ass games, the sky's the limit.

MGS should be a beast, though. I wouldn't be completely surprised if it got second to MGS and still advanced in Round 3.

The most hilarious result would be GSC > FFT in Round 1.
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ZFS | Posted 4/23/2009 2:42:47 PM | message detail
I would bet a lot that RBY isn't a top 5 game.

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/23/2009 2:43:57 PM | message detail
A lot, huh?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/23/2009 2:44:22 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | Posted: 4/23/2009 5:40:00 PM | #068
This is not the same FFT that beat MGS in 2004, but I'm not sold on GSC being worth anything. There's RBY, a huge gap, and then everything else when it comes to mainstream voting for Pokemon on this site. Everyone played and liked RBY, and from there it became pretentious and weeded out the casuals. GSC losing to Xenogears twice wasn't some random fluke, though GSC will obviously get a boost from being in a poll one day after RBY. It might beat FFT, but beating today's MGS strength is ludicrous.

I completely disagree. I actually think there is a distinct possibility, though small, that GSC could actually be stronger than RBY in a direct matchup. Either way, though I would not take GSC to be any less than around 40% of RBY strength.

Unless you have numerical evidence to back up your statement, rather than opinions.


See I'm the common sense "eye test" guy in the stats topic, and numbers only take you so far. GSC is only "stronger" than RBY among the hardcore Pokemon fans like Sir Chris. Among mainstream voters that got into Pokemon on RBY and were collectively weeded out with each new generation, GSC would get killed. This is another match I'd bet my account on in a second if it ever happened.
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Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/23/2009 2:45:14 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #065
This is only up for debate because people are in damage control defending the horrendously awful MM > RBY pick. That pick is Samus > Mario levels of dumb.

Yeah, I went there.


I know you're all big being high and mighty for getting a prediction right for once but in all fairness when has Zelda in any shape or form lost to anything outside of the Noble 9 represented characters or games? This Pokemon game didn't even make the last game contest, its series brother got buried embarrassingly. It stunk in the series contest and Pikachu has been fodder for years before eventually elevating to the status of midcarder. You can talk about common sense all day like if you want but this is Gamefaqs, common sense very rarely has any place here. Zelda was always going to be the safe pick here, if you didn't acknowledge this as a risky gamble when you were making your bracket you probably don't really know how GameFAQs contests work.
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trannyscience | Posted 4/23/2009 2:45:29 PM | message detail
taking GSC > RBY is like taking FF8 > FF7. don't do it.
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ZFS | Posted 4/23/2009 2:46:21 PM | message detail
And Majora's Mask definitely isn't Yoshi's Island weak, but it's certainly not that strong either -- we're talking about a Zelda game incapable of breaking 30% in a poll. It's not fodder, but it's far from being the top 20 game people here expected it to be, unless Pokemon's just SFFing to look as weak as it is.

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/23/2009 2:46:30 PM | message detail

From: Internet_Warbot | #075
I know you're all big being high and mighty for getting a prediction right for once but in all fairness when has Zelda in any shape or form lost to anything outside of the Noble 9 represented characters or games?


Jay Solano.

Yeah, I went there.

Also, L-Block.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/23/2009 2:46:41 PM | message detail
when has Zelda in any shape or form lost to anything outside of the Noble 9 represented characters or games?

ZELDAFEAR lololo

you probably don't really know how GameFAQs contests work.

Who won the last games contest? Refresh my memory, because I forget.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/23/2009 2:48:00 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX
This is another match I'd bet my account on in a second if it ever happened.


You mean like next round? ...
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/23/2009 2:48:29 PM | message detail
unless Pokemon's just SFFing to look as weak as it is.

Let's stop with this talk right here. We haven't seen a single big case of SFF or LFF this entire contest, and I seriously doubt it starts with Pokemon - a fanbase that has already shown to be somewhat separated from the rest of Nintendo.

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/23/2009 2:49:23 PM | message detail
Plus, if Pokemon is SFFing Zelda, then it pretty much has to be a top 5 game to get that much support.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/23/2009 2:49:42 PM | message detail
MM was only a popular pick among the Board 8 stat/guru crowd, from people convinced it had some huge window. This same logic was used for Raiden by the same people, and we all saw how that worked out. Having "Zelda" in the title only means so much when the game is trash, came out late in a system life span and was generally disliked. Outside of this board, I can't recall anyone caring about Majora's Mask.

I'm willing to bet Pokemon > MM was far and away the casual pick for this match.
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ZFS | Posted 4/23/2009 2:50:12 PM | message detail
I never said it was the case, that's just all Majora's Mask can say to make it look anywhere near what the expectations were. Without that, this game ain't that strong.

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MetricTrout | Posted 4/23/2009 2:50:33 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49185271

I see a lot of topics like these, both on Board 8 and other social boards, and Gold/Silver always come up on top.

Not saying that Board 8 = GameFAQs. But it makes you wonder how much weaker Gold/Silver really is. Every Pokemon generation has sold more than OoT and FF7 combined, so exposure is not really an issue.

At most, I would say that if R/B/Y = Chrono Trigger, G/S/C = FF3. And I would take FF3 over MGS/FFT/whatever, especially when it sticks out like G/S/C would.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 4/23/2009 2:50:34 PM | message detail
I thought Raiden was just being overhyped by those Zany MATEL GAER fans.
Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/23/2009 2:50:39 PM | message detail
Every dog has their day, try making 3 different end leaderboards over the years and come back to me. ^_~

If you don't realise the difference between a lock and an upset pick I'll be waiting a while.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/23/2009 2:51:03 PM | message detail
Having "Zelda" in the title only means so much when the game is trash, came out late in a system life span and was generally disliked.

Which is what I said earlier: Having a franchise name in the title doesn't guarantee you're a powerhouse.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/23/2009 2:51:10 PM | message detail
MM's expectations were set pretty high. I saw some MM>TP talk here and there.

But yeah, not Top 20, but it doesn't have to be Top 20 to be strong.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/23/2009 2:51:18 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm pretty much done with saying franchise voting is a factor and just gonna throw out that some of these games actually have fanbases more than anybody dumb enough to vote because of a name.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/23/2009 2:51:39 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | Posted: 4/23/2009 5:50:33 PM | #085
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49185271

I see a lot of topics like these, both on Board 8 and other social boards, and Gold/Silver always come up on top.

Not saying that Board 8 = GameFAQs. But it makes you wonder how much weaker Gold/Silver really is. Every Pokemon generation has sold more than OoT and FF7 combined, so exposure is not really an issue.

At most, I would say that if R/B/Y = Chrono Trigger, G/S/C = FF3. And I would take FF3 over MGS/FFT/whatever, especially when it sticks out like G/S/C would.


Did I not JUST SAY GSC is stronger among hardcore Pokemon fans? I didn't suddenly start speaking Greek.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/23/2009 2:52:25 PM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | Posted: 4/23/2009 5:51:03 PM | #088
Having "Zelda" in the title only means so much when the game is trash, came out late in a system life span and was generally disliked.

Which is what I said earlier: Having a franchise name in the title doesn't guarantee you're a powerhouse.


</topic>

As for an actual hard-to-call match, we're only 6 hours away!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/23/2009 2:52:51 PM | message detail
and was generally disliked.

Neither MM, FFIX, Yoshi's Island, MGS2 or whatever black sheep you can think of is generally disliked. They're just not liked as much. They still have a good number of fans.

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ZFS | Posted 4/23/2009 2:53:02 PM | message detail
MM > TP talk was always silly -- it was never going to be that strong, at all. But there's no doubt at this point that MM's a really low tier Zelda.

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/23/2009 2:53:40 PM | message detail

From: Shoenin_Kakashi | #086
I thought Raiden was just being overhyped by those Zany MATEL GAER fans.


Raiden:MGS::MM:Zelda

"Hey, series X is strong, so surely Y will be strong since it's from X!"

Because we all remember what powerhouses Midna and the fat **** in the skintight green leotard were.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/23/2009 2:53:43 PM | message detail
A really low-tier Zelda game still beats 3/5 of the bracket, I think.

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MetricTrout | Posted 4/23/2009 2:54:09 PM | message detail
The thing is, Majora's Mask is performing as expected. Stronger than Link's Awakening, weaker than Zelda 1, and on par with Wind Waker. The wild card was Pokemon, and no one really expected it to have Chrono Trigger type strength.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/23/2009 2:54:24 PM | message detail
Raiden was totally in the top 15% in the x-stats last year don't be hatin'.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/23/2009 2:54:35 PM | message detail
Top 15, rather.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/23/2009 2:54:57 PM | message detail
The thing is, Majora's Mask is performing as expected. Stronger than Link's Awakening, weaker than Zelda 1, and on par with Wind Waker.

Dude, get out of damage control mode now.
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