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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 688

HaRRicH | Posted 4/23/2009 9:28:03 PM | message detail
Goddamn, Pokemon's out of control.

Pokemon G/S/C got 42.05% on Xenogears in 2004...and now Pokemon G/S is currently getting 33.79% against Metal Gear Solid, Final Fantasy Tactics, and Deus Ex. Seeing G/S do this well and assuming R/B/Y will crush it, I mean...I'm not sure how MGS is supposed to stand a chance at taking first in R2 outside of standing out as the only non-Nintendo game.

Yeesh. Did the site get like this before or after Pokemon/Metroid went down?
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/23/2009 9:29:44 PM | message detail
Fanbase realizing Pokemon isn't kiddy, fourways helping tremendously, etc.

Whatever the reason, I'm all for the dominant force of PokeFAQs!
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http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
charmander6000 | Posted 4/23/2009 9:30:08 PM | message detail
Yeesh. Did the site get like this before or after Pokemon/Metroid went down?

2006 was the first year we observed this with Metroid/Pokemon and Samus/Nidoran F
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 51/68
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 9:30:13 PM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid should take first rather easily. Poke-mania will be pretty diluted with the sight of two of them in the poll, I think, even if the original manages an 80/20 killing or something.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/23/2009 9:30:14 PM | message detail
You doubt MGS before it even reaches its stride and when it's on the receiving end of STF? R2 will put a reversal to all that. RBY should consider itself lucky to get whatever GS ends up with by the end of today!
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
Lopen | Posted 4/23/2009 9:30:50 PM | message detail
People are wise to the cameo appearance now. FFT has developed Cloud trends.

Time to duck and cover Pokemanz.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
charmander6000 | Posted 4/23/2009 9:31:10 PM | message detail
Yup looks like MGS has first...

So how about that Starcraft/Final Fantasy VIII?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 51/68
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 9:31:40 PM | message detail
And hey, I still think Majora's Mask has a sliver of hope for making it out.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/23/2009 9:32:11 PM | message detail
This match seals the defeat of Half-Life at the hands of FF9, in all likelihood.

Contra, Doom, Goldeneye, Perfect Dark, Deus Ex and games of this ilk have all performed like complete crap. Don't see why Half-Life (and possibly even HL2) won't escape this.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/23/2009 9:32:53 PM | message detail
MGS is scoring 62.29% on FFT.

Very nice boost for MGS, even if some of that really is FFT falling.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/23/2009 9:33:16 PM | message detail
I say that match should still be in the air considering franchise voting is the only reason most people consider those FF games anywhere near strong.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: MGS > FFT - Points: 49/68 Vote: G/S
charmander6000 | Posted 4/23/2009 9:33:41 PM | message detail
Contra, Doom, Goldeneye, Perfect Dark, Deus Ex and games of this ilk have all performed like complete crap. Don't see why Half-Life (and possibly even HL2) won't escape this.

Besides Doom and GoldenEye (which did well IMO) did you really expect the others to be anything, but failures?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 51/68
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 9:34:19 PM | message detail
The Chrono Cross split, Half-Life's big stand-out factor, and Ocarina of Time making a run for 50% (and likely hurting the RPGs more) still give me hope.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
Big Bob | Posted 4/23/2009 9:34:24 PM | message detail
Ulti, I'll sig bet you that Half-Life makes it out of its match.
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49181355
MUCH better use of my sig space.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/23/2009 9:34:52 PM | message detail
besides, if we're all going to go high on Pokemon, we may as well give Half-Life the same treatment. It has almost as much reason to go up as Pokemon (people loved using characters as an example!).
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: MGS > FFT - Points: 49/68 Vote: G/S
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/23/2009 9:35:28 PM | message detail
I think this format and Valve's emergence into the mainstream should help their games quite a bit. Probably not enough to pull off amazing upsets, but they'll do better than expected. I can see Half Life taking out a FF9 slightly held back by CC.
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http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/23/2009 9:35:43 PM | message detail
Contra bombed.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
TheRye | Posted 4/23/2009 9:35:55 PM | message detail
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/23/2009 11:32:11 PM | message detail

Contra, Doom, Goldeneye, Perfect Dark, Deus Ex and games of this ilk have all performed like complete crap. Don't see why Half-Life (and possibly even HL2) won't escape this.


I would handily take Half-Life over all of those games except Goldeneye. Didn't Half-Life get like 45% on Metroid Prime, pre-HL2 and pre-Orange Box?
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The Rye - The one and only...
http://backloggery.com/the_rye/sig.gif
MetricTrout | Posted 4/23/2009 9:36:50 PM | message detail
Hochi can have your entire sig. I'll take your empty quote so the whole thing fits.

OK.

I was right about Pokemon G/S not being significantly weaker than R/B/Y, though. It just turns out that MGS was stronger than expected.

And this match is on pace for slightly less than SMW/FF type votals. Though both Pokemon and MGS have strong board votes, so it may end up below the FF7 match as well.
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This space reserved.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/23/2009 9:37:13 PM | message detail
Holy gains, MGS.

FFT > GSC is a ****ing joke now, but there's still some chance GSC may end up closer to FFT than MGS.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/23/2009 9:38:06 PM | message detail
MGS was stronger than expected.

I don't understand the "my game lost, the other game must have been stronger than expected!" logic. Leave that useless crap to people like BT.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 9:38:25 PM | message detail
I would handily take Half-Life over all of those games except Goldeneye. Didn't Half-Life get like 45% on Metroid Prime, pre-HL2 and pre-Orange Box?

Closer to 44%, but yeah, HL did very well for itself in 2004, and it has good reason to be stronger now.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/23/2009 9:38:27 PM | message detail
Half-Life's chances are very slim.

Adding to what Ulti said, it's 2k4 performance was already inflated by low votals. Re-run the match today and MP clears 60% easily. We've also seen splits not mean much of anything so far; just being the same company doesn't cut it with games.

The only thing Half-Life has left to cling onto is the Progenitor Factor. Everything else just looks bad.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
RPGuy96 | Posted 4/23/2009 9:39:33 PM | message detail
We saw Majora's Mask flop badly and FFT do pretty poorly today. Do you really think FFIX has a lot going for it?
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Mustache...and Green...
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ZFS | Posted 4/23/2009 9:39:42 PM | message detail
I really doubt that Prime would get 60% on Half-Life today, unless HL has just completely dropped off the map.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/23/2009 9:40:06 PM | message detail
I'm not even clinging to the splits anymore. We have no idea where FF9 is right now.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: MGS > FFT - Points: 49/68 Vote: G/S
HaRRicH | Posted 4/23/2009 9:40:22 PM | message detail
Don't get me wrong, MGS all the way (now that PD is out...grrr!). Pokemon's on a rampage though, and we've seen that it's hard to push Pokemon characters around in four-ways; they're not always the most impressive, but they're hard as hell to eliminate and have pull some surprises in the past two years. I imagine it will only be tougher to push their games around (like what we've been seeing the past 24 2/3 hours), and LUE Links suggests R/B/Y will double G/S while yesterday says LoZ:MM is hardly a factor.

Go MGS, but beating R/B/Y is going to be a tough feat if MGS doesn't kick it into gear (and it will, but I don't know if it will be enough).
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/23/2009 9:40:24 PM | message detail
Come on Starcraft > Soulcalibur upset!
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transience | Posted 4/23/2009 9:40:25 PM | message detail
lol 2004

that goes twice for this match.
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xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/23/2009 9:41:17 PM | message detail
Doth thou continuest to doubteth? Prithee tell, and our lady prepareth to venture into that darkest night that embraceth her so tightly and expels monsters of capsuleth form.*

*from the new hit Metal Gear Solid: FFTranslation Edition
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
charmander6000 | Posted 4/23/2009 9:41:21 PM | message detail
I don't understand the "my game lost, the other game must have been stronger than expected!" logic. Leave that useless crap to people like BT.

???

Well either your game is weaker and is bombing relatively to the three other games or another game is stronger and doing better relatively to the three other games. People's expectations are different from others.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 51/68
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/23/2009 9:42:12 PM | message detail
Well, yeah. FFIX could always bomb. I doubt it does, but it could.

Judging on HL alone, though, it doesn't look too good.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/23/2009 9:42:18 PM | message detail
Half-Life 2 was a pretty famous release. I think that's enough to keep the Half-Life name afloat. I mean at the time of its match it was an 8 year old game with no sequel.

I don't think it'll win though
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/23/2009 9:42:43 PM | message detail
Judging on FFT and MM, FFIX doesn't look good.

There's no reason for *either* game to look good. That's why it's still a tossup, but we at least know Half-Life has more of a reason to gain.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: MGS > FFT - Points: 49/68 Vote: G/S
charmander6000 | Posted 4/23/2009 9:42:56 PM | message detail
In other news, this is the first LoZ/FF/Mario game to be eliminated.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 51/68
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 9:42:57 PM | message detail
I really doubt that Prime would get 60% on Half-Life today, unless HL has just completely dropped off the map.

Same. I don't see why Half-Life would get weaker after Half-Life 2, The Orange Box (finally some series console exposure), being offered up on Steam, and Gordon's popularity explosion on GameFAQs. It should be stronger. I mean, the reasons for it being stronger are identical to those for MGS (minus the Brawl cameo), and that seems to be looking pretty good now.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/23/2009 9:44:08 PM | message detail
Asking HL2 to help out HL is like asking RE4 to help out RE/RE2 (and maybe it did, I don't know). The games are 6 years apart.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/23/2009 9:45:20 PM | message detail
As far as SotN, I don't think it's nearly to the level of 30% on MGS 2k4. RE1 got stronger.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
ZFS | Posted 4/23/2009 9:45:21 PM | message detail
Yeah. I have a hard time believing that Half-Life is going to disappeared from the mainstream when the series is still relevant and kicking today, probably more than it was during 2k4. It can still lose and I wouldn't be surprised, but I'd say its chances are probably better at this point than FFIX, just taking everything we've seen into consideration. Match is a tossup right now, I think. Cross will probably make the difference.

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Dark_Star_1 | Posted 4/23/2009 9:45:37 PM | message detail
Only a 10 vote gain?
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RFOTD #326 - Canada is an Indian word meaning Big Village.
Chicago is Indian for place of wild garlic.
charmander6000 | Posted 4/23/2009 9:45:46 PM | message detail
Pokemon with the night (Asia) vote?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 51/68
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 9:45:48 PM | message detail
Unless this is FFT falling down the Grand Canyon, it sure looks like the original MGS was boosted by something, and I'm just assuming HL is in that same boat. It has just about every reason to be.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
TheRye | Posted 4/23/2009 9:46:32 PM | message detail
Asking HL2 to help out HL is like asking RE4 to help out RE/RE2 (and maybe it did, I don't know). The games are 6 years apart.

I think that one highly-anticipated and very well-received sequel is a little different than, what is it, the 8th Resident Evil game released?
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The Rye - The one and only...
http://backloggery.com/the_rye/sig.gif
eaglesarebeasts | Posted 4/23/2009 9:46:52 PM | message detail
Come on Starcraft > Soulcalibur upset!

Awww yeah. I like how you think.
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/23/2009 9:47:08 PM | message detail
HL now is stronger than HL in 1998, but it's still relatively weaker, if that makes sense. We got half the amount of votals we get now, and I think that makes a big difference.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
red sox 777 | Posted 4/23/2009 9:47:13 PM | message detail
Time for irrelevant (or are they?) Crono/Vincent 2007 comparisons:

At this point (45 minutes in), Crono had 56.86% on Vincent, and he ended at 48.58%. He fell a total of 8.28% from this time to the end.

GS currently has 59.89% on FFT (yep, FFT cleared 40%). If GS falls by the same amount Crono did against Vincent, it wins wth 51.61%.

Yeah, not going to get that close, but FFT may win some hours overnight.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
transience | Posted 4/23/2009 9:47:32 PM | message detail
I think this is a both of both - FFT falling, MGS rising. and Pokemon in the middle.

I kinda see G/S as being about equal to 2k4 MGS and FFT.
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xyzzy
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/7033/trannyanalysis.png
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/23/2009 9:48:16 PM | message detail
PokeFAQs.
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http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/23/2009 9:48:27 PM | message detail
I kinda see G/S as being about equal to 2k4 MGS and FFT.

Wouldn't that put Xenogears above them both? >_>

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
ZFS | Posted 4/23/2009 9:48:34 PM | message detail
Haha Crono/Vincent comparisons. It cracks me up every time -- when did you start this !

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