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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 688

UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/22/2009 10:53:02 PM | message detail
lol 6888

AND THIS IS NOT AN UPSET


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
voltch | Posted 4/23/2009 2:28:05 AM | message detail
awww,i liked 6888
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Pearl FC:2450 0974 5734
*shakes fist*
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/23/2009 10:47:23 AM | message detail
Awesome match going on here with 2009 BGE Pokemon RBY.
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http://gamebros.smackjeeves.com/
http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/23/2009 10:47:46 AM | message detail
jumping the gun
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/23/2009 10:49:01 AM | message detail

From: Internet_Warbot | #004
jumping the gun


no sense of humor
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http://gamebros.smackjeeves.com/
http://l33trappacat.smackjeeves.com/
XxSoulxX | Posted 4/23/2009 11:18:52 AM | message detail
Holy crap, I actually called an upset right! Kickass!

Am I the only one with R/B/Y > MGS next round?
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Good Times,
Great Memories
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/23/2009 11:25:07 AM | message detail
If FFT advances tomorrow, well, game over MM. But even if GSC is there, MM would have to go from 36% to something over 50% on RBY. I don't think we've ever seen double LFF that bad, and Majora's Mask is a Ninty game as well on top of that.

Well, what if Majora's Mask is being LFF'd by Perfect Dark and Banjo-Kazooie here?!

Yeah, I'm stretching it here, but I've got MGS > MM next round, so I need SOMETHING to hold onto here!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
voltch | Posted 4/23/2009 11:45:41 AM | message detail
face it,your not gonna match the dizzying heights of,hey weren't you the dude that got screwed over by bacon when you should have won a prize?
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Pearl FC:2450 0974 5734
*shakes fist*
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/23/2009 11:46:41 AM | message detail
Leon, Swift and Lopen all apparently voted like 39 times per match. Which we all know is BS.
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.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.
Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
voltch | Posted 4/23/2009 11:47:41 AM | message detail
like,total BS,which matches were they accused of already?
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Pearl FC:2450 0974 5734
*shakes fist*
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/23/2009 12:08:05 PM | message detail
Well, I did accidentally vote twice, which apparently is the same thing as cheating, even though it was in a blowout match. So basically if I was allowed to have a prize, he'd legally have to let everyone cheat.

That was my take on the matter.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/23/2009 12:09:59 PM | message detail
legally eh
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.
voltch | Posted 4/23/2009 12:12:24 PM | message detail
meh,he let all the vote stuffing happen and then to look good he picked on a nice guy like you.aww
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Pearl FC:2450 0974 5734
*shakes fist*
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/23/2009 12:23:40 PM | message detail
MM has absolutely no chance at advancing next round. GSC would have to be as strong as RBY and also split perfectly evenly with it. Nothing like that has ever even come close to happening.

MGS wins due to standout, RBY gets 2nd no matter who's in the poll.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
XxSoulxX | Posted 4/23/2009 12:24:32 PM | message detail
MGS wins due to standout, RBY gets 2nd no matter who's in the poll.

RBY could finish first.
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Good Times,
Great Memories
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/23/2009 12:26:27 PM | message detail
And from the looks of the last stats topic, people are already trying to play down this result. I would advise against that.

RBY could finish first.

If GSC isn't there, yeah.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/23/2009 12:39:27 PM | message detail
I'm not even going to make judgments this early.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: MM > PD - Points: 48/64 Vote: R/B/Y
Zylo the wolf | Posted 4/23/2009 12:40:25 PM | message detail
I agree with Ulti it was common sense that PKMN would win. What's shocking is how weak MM is.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me
voltch | Posted 4/23/2009 12:45:17 PM | message detail
i tell ya all now,FFT will be shocking us all.
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Pearl FC:2450 0974 5734
*shakes fist*
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/23/2009 12:46:42 PM | message detail
Shocking us by how bad it flops, maybe.
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I'm gonna keep on going, I know I'll be strong.
http://i195.photobucket.com/albums/z114/Javer8000/FanimeCon2008/Sandbag.jpg
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 4/23/2009 12:47:57 PM | message detail
OK, guys, we gotta rap some Pokémon.
You just do the singing. I'll take care of the hard part.
Let's get it on!

I want to be the best
there ever was.
To beat all the rest, yeah,
that's my cause.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/23/2009 12:50:53 PM | message detail
i tell ya all now,FFT will be shocking us all.

By being bad. I had reservations about FFT beating RBY from the start (because I had the common sense to see RBY would be a monster), and now it's a lock FFT won't place in the second round. This isn't the same game that beat Metal Gear Solid.

And screw the vote-stuffers. FFT won that match.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ; Rest in peace, Mitch Stuekerjuergen :(
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 12:51:03 PM | message detail
Flopal Floptasy Floptics
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 12:51:47 PM | message detail
Flopal Flop Flopid
Pokemon Flop/Flop/Flop
Flopus X
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 12:55:53 PM | message detail
Flopo Flopooie
Perfect Flop
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
The Flop of Zelda: Flop's Flop

This is kinda fun!

You should probably expect it for every match now.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/23/2009 12:58:23 PM | message detail
So does anyone else think that RBY will perform better against tougher competition? Pikachu and Mewtwo did the same thing, and while RBY is obviously a different beast from them, I think the same parallels could occur.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
HaRRicH | Posted 4/23/2009 1:23:03 PM | message detail
Since I asked at the end of the last topic, I'll ask again here...who's got the balls?

Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
Super Mario Bros. 3
Super Smash Bros. Melee
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/23/2009 1:25:19 PM | message detail
SMB3 gets through somehow, while I'll give Melee the benefit of the doubt.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: MM > PD - Points: 48/64 Vote: R/B/Y
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/23/2009 1:30:59 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | Posted: 4/23/2009 4:23:03 PM | #027
Since I asked at the end of the last topic, I'll ask again here...who's got the balls?

Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
Super Mario Bros. 3
Super Smash Bros. Melee


What a damn good match that would be.

I think Mario 3 takes an easy first place there, because there's really nothing holding it down. From there, assuming the recent trend of "LFF doesn't matter", I'd go with Pokemon RBY for second place. There's a few reasons for TP and Melee to hurt each other a bit (and for the record, I'd pick Melee to absolutely destroy TP in a poll), but there's nothing holding back Pokemon there.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/23/2009 1:33:55 PM | message detail
i tell ya all now,FFT will be shocking us all.

...By flopping, that is.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
RPGuy96 | Posted 4/23/2009 1:35:01 PM | message detail
Fun with numbers, RBY edition. Note that RBY is increasing pretty rapidly with the ASV, so all of these comparisons will likely be more favourable to RBY by the end of the day.

If Perfect Dark = SFF'd Metroid 1, Zelda 1 gets 41.7% on RBY.
If Majora's Mask = FF1, Mario World gets 41% on RBY.
If Majora's Mask = Link's Awakening, FFVI gets 41.6% on RBY
If Perfect Dark = Doom, LttP gets 41% on RBY
If Perfect Dark = Star Fox 64, FFVII gets 46.7% on RBY
If the PD/SotN relation from 2k4 holds, Mario 64 gets 31.1% on RBY
If Perfect Dark = EarthBound, Chrono Trigger gets 45% on RBY

Wheeee
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96
Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/23/2009 1:36:46 PM | message detail
When Perfect Dark's base is being sapped by two other N64 titles, one of them also Rare I don't think those figures hold much water.
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Hey you, get offa my cloud! - Mario
hochiminhX | Posted 4/23/2009 1:38:04 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy Tactics might flop, or it might not.

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The corpse's bitter crimson tears flow and mingle with the endless sand, feeding the chaos within me and making me stronger.
RPGuy96 | Posted 4/23/2009 1:38:15 PM | message detail
I'd have used Majora's Mask more, but most of the elite games did more than double their next weakest opponents.
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/23/2009 1:38:41 PM | message detail
From: hochiminhX | #033
Final Fantasy Tactics might flop, or it might not.

Bold statement of the contest right here.
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I'm gonna keep on going, I know I'll be strong.
http://i195.photobucket.com/albums/z114/Javer8000/FanimeCon2008/Sandbag.jpg
BDawg | Posted 4/23/2009 1:39:04 PM | message detail
Lol x-stats indeed.
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Should I start running now?
nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/23/2009 1:45:00 PM | message detail

From: RPGuy96
If Perfect Dark = Star Fox 64, FFVII gets 46.7% on RBY


Awwww yeah. Shame StarFox would beat PD down.
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But I like those numbers.
trannyscience | Posted 4/23/2009 1:45:41 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be sure about that. that'd be debatable.
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/23/2009 1:48:06 PM | message detail
Considering that PD is being sapped by two other N64 games, those numbers don't hold water. And Majora's Mask's performance today is reinforcing what Yoshi's Island's performance yesterday taught us: Just because you may have your franchise name in your title doesn't necessarily mean you're going to be a powerhouse.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/23/2009 1:48:42 PM | message detail
hahahaha
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg
Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/23/2009 1:50:08 PM | message detail

From: Internet_Warbot | #032
When Perfect Dark's base is being sapped by two other N64 titles, one of them also Rare I don't think those figures hold much water.


From: Fayt_Esteed | #039
Considering that PD is being sapped by two other N64 games, those numbers don't hold water.


awww yeah paraphrasing my posts! =P
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/23/2009 1:59:59 PM | message detail
We could use a poll that asks for a favorite starter, and then rally them into the next character battle. I still think we're missing something about Pokemon.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: MM > PD - Points: 48/64 Vote: R/B/Y
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/23/2009 2:02:47 PM | message detail
There's nothing to miss. People like the game a lot, but not nearly as many care about the individual Pokemon. Seems pretty clear cut to me.
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No matter what, no matter how, I know I'll make it through somehow.
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif
MetricTrout | Posted 4/23/2009 2:04:10 PM | message detail
Rally the Pokemon Trainer. Being the silent protagonist, he should be stronger than any individual Pokemon.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
voltch | Posted 4/23/2009 2:04:56 PM | message detail
we need a better series contest,the concept is still good,but now that nintendoFAQs has died down a bit,we can start having real matches.
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Pearl FC:2450 0974 5734
*shakes fist*
voltch | Posted 4/23/2009 2:05:30 PM | message detail
oh,if we're gonna get a human it's Oak or Red tbh.
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Pearl FC:2450 0974 5734
*shakes fist*
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/23/2009 2:06:14 PM | message detail
we need a better series contest,the concept is still good,but now that nintendoFAQs has died down a bit,we can start having real matches.

No, not another series contest.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
Master Moltar | Posted 4/23/2009 2:08:43 PM | message detail
I'm willing to accept any explanation that has MM looking as strong as we thought it was, even if it means RBY > FF7 or some nonsense.

I'll believe
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Moltar Status: you can't hide forever
Match 17 - Bracket: Zelda: MM > RBY - Vote: Zelda: MM (50/64)
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/23/2009 2:15:01 PM | message detail
Charizard is the easy rally favorite.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
trannyscience | Posted 4/23/2009 2:19:35 PM | message detail
yeah I don't see the big deal here, it's a huge ensemble cast and they're inanimate creatures. there's a reason I compared it to FF6 yesterday!
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg