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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 687

tim333 | Posted 4/22/2009 11:39:33 PM | message detail
I emulated the Japanese Silver because I was impatient.

There was a partial fan translation, too. Did anybody ever play with that patch? I remember a quirk it had: it wasn't programmed correctly to say stuff about your bag pocket, so instead of saying "You got a NUT! Put NUT in whatever pocket!" it just said

"You got a NUT!"
"A NUT!"

This used to send my friend and me into hysterics. A NUT!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 11:39:48 PM | message detail
I really hope we get another Crono/Vincent match up next contest.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
ZFS | Posted 4/22/2009 11:40:02 PM | message detail
CTDS boosted Crono let's wait for CT to go up against some real competition first

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 11:42:46 PM | message detail
I cant wait to see the asian percentage for this match

A Europeon platformer, a FPS, a Zelda game when Zelda typically does bad in Asia, and Pokemon

we might be seeing 80%
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
Justin_Crossing | Posted 4/22/2009 11:43:26 PM | message detail
I really, really am quite pleasantly surprised at how Pokemon's doing.

I also would not mind you all signing the topic in my sig.

But yeah, if RBY is continuing at a trend like this, there's no telling what might happen tomorrow.
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=954454&topic=49183723
Please sign this topic. Don't ask questions. Just do it.
Janus5000 | Posted 4/22/2009 11:55:41 PM | message detail
*looks at result for the first time*

Oh my.

That is beyond beautiful.
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Stay a while and breathe me in.
FastFalcon05 | Posted 4/22/2009 11:57:42 PM | message detail
This is completely unrelated to anything currently being discussed, but I was just thinking about what others new contests are left that are still worthwhile. The most bandied about thing seems to be the non-vg chars contest, but we know that will never happen. The next thing I could think of was a "Best Video Game Moment" contest. Nominations would definitely be bizarre and it would be spoiler city, but I bet you could get some interesting entries and results from it.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/22/2009 11:58:05 PM | message detail
Something new to think about: what do you think Goldeneye does here if it was in PD's place? According to GE > C:SotN > PD from 2004 and PD today, PD would be indirectly worth 38.13% on GE...whereas it's currently (2:47 AM) worth 30.89% on LoZ:MM; combining those, GE gets 40.51% on LoZ:MM.

That can't be fully accurate, but that's a BIG reversal from the N64-VC poll if that's anywhere close to true...though we should consider GE/C:SotN/PD probably lost strength in the past five years and LoZ:MM has its brand-name keeping it afloat if nothing else.


We need to see GE against FF7, quick...I don't want to believe LoZ:MM > GE.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
HaRRicH | Posted 4/22/2009 11:59:24 PM | message detail
That'd be a great chance for Aeris to have near-elite strength again!
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
hochiminhX | Posted 4/23/2009 12:01:08 AM | message detail
There's actually a formula you use to predict the results of this contest. It involves the List, the 2004 Contest, the 2003 Contest, plus a dose of common sense. Plus the ZDF. I won't tell you what this formula is but it is what allowed me to predict today's results. I should be getting close to the leaderboard. Then, I shall usher in a new era.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/23/2009 12:03:49 AM | message detail
Using PD in this match - y'know, when it's barely winning updates over Banjo-Kazooie a good deal of the time - is a trap. Goldeneye might not be stronger than MM, and it didn't exactly knock anything out of the ballpark in its match. But remember that PD could have very well met Goldeneye directly in 2004, and no game in this match would be able to match that beatdown.
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ZFS | Posted 4/23/2009 12:04:34 AM | message detail
Zack and Aeris final book it

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hochiminhX | Posted 4/23/2009 12:05:31 AM | message detail
You guys need to stop analyzing performance from fodder (PD) and trying to make a case out of it. Seriously.
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The corpse's bitter crimson tears flow and mingle with the endless sand, feeding the chaos within me and making me stronger.
HaRRicH | Posted 4/23/2009 12:12:40 AM | message detail
They're hypotheses, hoch, ones made with the little bit of information we have. Feel free to counter them with ZDF if you think that little of them, but they're just suggestions.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
Xcarvenger | Posted 4/23/2009 12:20:12 AM | message detail
CT may not be able to beat the "Zelda votes" from LttP voters nowadays ever since the "Nintendo boost" in 05/06 (and its subsequent little bumps here and there) thus may lose in direct match (it's already close anyway), but indirectly I believe CT is still equal or a bit stronger than LttP

also, I don't think we can compare characters to games directly in some cases (especially towards the top, like FFVII will always be stronger than Cloud, but I don't think a single Zelda/Mario game has a strength of Link/Mario). pretty sure CT is in the former category, i.e. the game is more well-known than its most popular character (Crono), because people know the game but may not necessarily care about the characters (wasn't the 'europe votes' kinda kind to CT back in BGE04 than for CT characters in any of our CBs so far? not spectacular but not as sucktacular as CT characters. of course CTDS helps a bit now as well)

so yeah Crono bombing does not mean the game has bombed as much or even at all. name recognition goes a long way!

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Dilated Chemist | Posted 4/23/2009 12:49:02 AM | message detail
Wow, didn't they Pokemon would perform this well.

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[ FINAL FOUR ] FFVII / SMB3 / LoZ: OoT / MGS
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=161
Gaddswell | Posted 4/23/2009 12:59:43 AM | message detail
Haha, look what's happened to this topic! There's about 50 posts on just the Pokemon trading cards!

I see most of the scenarios have been run through (like LA > MM) already. Awesome result.

Pokemon wins the day over MM, right? RBY doubling MM, who'd have thought?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/23/2009 1:27:46 AM | message detail
LA > MM isn't a stretch at all.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/23/2009 1:31:39 AM | message detail
I think you pretty much have to assume LA > MM (or massive SFF here) just in order to keep RBY from coasting to the championship with zero resistance. Both may be the case, but there's only so much one can (presumably) assume.
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voltch | Posted 4/23/2009 2:47:07 AM | message detail
mymy,if this had happened earlier,well i would taken pokemon>metroid in a series contest.
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Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/23/2009 3:35:45 AM | message detail
I always suspected nobody gave a damn about MM outside this board.

What about Pokemon though, it's really loving this 4-way format.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 4/23/2009 4:34:43 AM | message detail
Don't forget to check out the latest FAQs posted for Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars, Dragon Ball: Evolution, Rune Factory Frontier, and Valkyrie Profile: Covenant of the Plume. We've also got new reviews for The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask, Dokapon Journey, and Broken Sword: Shadows of the Templars (Director's Cut), plus new cheats for Demigod and Lode Runner.

NEW REVIEWS CAN'T HELP YOU NOW, ZELDA!
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/23/2009 4:58:24 AM | message detail
Has anybody thought of the possibility that MGS4 could be one of those bandwagon entries like Snake was last year?


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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: MM > PD - Points: 48/64 Vote: R/B/Y
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/23/2009 5:06:05 AM | message detail
Um... probably not. There's really no set up situation that says to voters, "hey, this game can beat FF7/OoT!" like Snake/Cloud/Seph/Kirby did last year with Link. You'd need a situation like OoT/TP/Melee/MGS4 to begin with, then you'd need to assume Brawl is actually on or above Melee's level, and even then that setup means that the original MGS bowed out early despite a favorable situation...

...no, if anything gets bandwagoned I'm gonna go with the safe pick and just say StarCraft. Pencil in RBY for a potential second one, I guess.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/23/2009 5:27:34 AM | message detail
wow. what a terrible morning vote.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: MM > PD - Points: 48/64 Vote: R/B/Y
Starion | Posted 4/23/2009 5:29:57 AM | message detail
For Pokemon? Well, it's still padding the lead over MM. I'm just wondering when it will start gaining percentage wise again.
red sox 777 | Posted 4/23/2009 5:31:17 AM | message detail
Whoa, RBY has been falling pretty quickly since 8 AM. Well, if the ASV is the same way, it should end up under 50%. Still an amazing performance.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/23/2009 5:36:41 AM | message detail
For Pokemon? Well, it's still padding the lead over MM.

Pokemon's morning vote would have to be absolutely horrid for it to drop updates to a game it was on track to double. Instead, its morning vote looks kinda bad compared to these other Nintendo games, or "just very good" by any other standard. It would seem that unlike the actual characters, who have morning votes and ASVs that are second to none (meaning the worst night votes in the contest), that RBY is being fueled in a big part by older, nostalgic voters.

Which makes sense - you don't push 50% against this kind of competition without cobbling together a pretty impressive voting coalition. Still, it's odd to see a Pokemon entity go down with the morning against anything.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/23/2009 5:36:46 AM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #209
Earthbound > Banjo Kazooie and probably Perfect Dark too
SMW2 might be better than MM at this point as well.


As a big EB fan, Banjo would clobber it, and Perfect Dark would too. And no way is SMW2 anywhere near MM.


As someone who's correctly called all Earthbound related matches correctly, Earthbound would clobber BK. Just look at how weak Banjo himself is. It would be at least 55-45, and probably more.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/23/2009 5:40:35 AM | message detail
MyWorldIsCrono
Posted 4/23/2009 1:29:00 AM
message detail
filter | quote
#260 >.< Why are people STILL ignoring the fact that pokemon was anti voted in 1v1? Its so painfully obvious now but people still hold onto this. Pikachu went from being blown out by fox in 1v1 to being a top character in 4ways, and now this

What more evidence do you need? We're not gonna be seeing the GSC that got beaten big by Xenogears


I said this when I first took Pikachu far in 2007, Pokemon's strength isn't because of dillution of anti-votes, it's because Pokemon as a whole has gone from "OMG COOL POCKET MONSTERS" to "Ewww, who likes that kiddy crap" back to "OMG LET'S BATTLE MY LEVEL 100 MUDKIP AGAINST YOUR SCYTHER". People that were kids when the fad started were in that age between 13-17 when Pikachu and G/S bombed, and are now in their late teens/early 20's and ripe for the nostalgia vote picking.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/23/2009 5:46:45 AM | message detail
Hey BT guess what

we all heard you the last hundred times you repeated your lame arguments

and guess what else

no one cares
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/23/2009 6:00:41 AM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #429
As someone who's correctly called all Earthbound related matches correctly,


I don't understand why you always talk about reputation.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: MM > PD - Points: 48/64 Vote: R/B/Y
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/23/2009 6:16:53 AM | message detail
I think R/B/Y is doing great here, but I think everyone's overreacting as to its potential strength! I mean, let's wait until next round before passing judgment. It's facing three N64 games and unproven commodities at that. The fact that one of them is a Zelda game is very impressive, but I'm still going to withhold judgment on its strength until I see what it does against MGS. If it outright beats MGS, I'll be a believer.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/23/2009 6:23:26 AM | message detail
Looks like Pokemon is under FFVII now, but Perfect Dark could have been affected by OoT/GE SFF

>_>

So for a person with MGS > FFT next round I have to give Pokemon the favourite, though I wouldn't be surprised to see FFT pull through.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: MM > Pokemon R/B/Y Points: 49/64
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/23/2009 6:35:03 AM | message detail
Man, are people seriously using Perfect Dark as a gauge for R/B/Y's strength? This sounds like a mistake to me!

Like tranny said earlier, this feels like Tifa/Vyse and Vincent/Kerrigan all over again. Perfect Dark is going up against THE Pokemon game and a Zelda game. Of course it's going to get destroyed! Again, wait until it actually faces a game with real strength (MGS). I think franchise voting becomes less of a factor the more recent we get (I think someone else already mentioned this would be the case, and it seems like it's true).

This doesn't make G/S/C > FFT a lock tomorrow either, by the way. Like others have said, R/B/Y is THE Pokemon game, and I don't expect the others to get anywhere near this performance.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 4/23/2009 6:43:08 AM | message detail
So for a person with MGS > FFT next round I have to give Pokemon the favourite, though I wouldn't be surprised to see FFT pull through.

Same here. I'm really hoping that G/S really is a few steps below RBY in terms of strength and that Tactics doesn't suck too much. gogogo franchise voting.

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50/64 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Pokemon RBY > Zelda: Majora's Mask | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/23/2009 6:44:42 AM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | C. Trigger | Earthbound | Lufia II | Yoshi's Isle | Demographic
EBV | 51.12% | 18.51% | 4.56% | 25.81% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 54.51% | 18.53% | 4.61% | 22.35% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 58.37% | 15.38% | 4.85% | 21.40% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 56.97% | 13.66% | 4.38% | 24.99% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 58.18% | 14.27% | 4.46% | 23.09% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 54.32% | 16.30% | 3.52% | 25.86% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 56.28% | 16.38% | 4.55% | 22.80% | (22:00-24:00)

CT dominated every time except for the Power Hour and the ASV, where it dropped noticeable. Earthbound did horribly overnight, but for some reason, it made a 2% jump with the ASV. SSB proxy? Yoshi's Island does the best during the morning and ASV, as expected.

Yesterday's stats:

Chrono Trigger – 50.00%
Yoshi’s Island – 29.70%
Earthbound – 21.68%
Lufia II – 6.98%
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/23/2009 6:48:48 AM | message detail
Pokemon Stats and Discussion
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/23/2009 7:22:53 AM | message detail
G/S/C to R/B/Y is Vice City to GTA3, what the previous game should have been. RBY probably is the strongest game, but I'd be surprised if GS is that much weaker than it.

Also why does everyone think that Xenogears was weak in 2004? Like Secret of Mana, I wouldn't be surprised if it was SFF by FFVII.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: MM > Pokemon R/B/Y Points: 49/64
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/23/2009 7:25:18 AM | message detail
Xenogears wasn't weak back then. It always did pretty well in any polls that it was in (those which non-FF Square series is your favorite things), and FF7 is the absolute worst matchup the game could have gotten. And even then it still managed to squeeze out 20% of the vote.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/23/2009 7:38:52 AM | message detail
Yeah, Xenogears was probably a solid midcarder back then- the upper bound on potential FFVII/Xenogears SFF is really high. That doesn't mean GSC will beat FFT tomorrow though- RBY is in all likelihood a far far stronger game. I know, 2004 stats aren't very reliable, but going from 42% on Xenogears to beating FFT is still the greatest boost in the history of these contests. And no, I've seen no evidence that Pokemon characters have boosted that much- you can't exactly hold Pikachu getting SFF'd by Fox, who then got SFF'd by Link, in 2003 as evidence that he was pathetic back then.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 7:39:49 AM | message detail
The sad thing about this is that it might easily be the biggest moment of the contest, meaning that Half-Life beating Final Fantasy (twice) wouldn't look nearly as big or generate the type of board explosion that I was hoping for. Still wish it happens.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/23/2009 7:42:06 AM | message detail
See, I don't think Pokemon beating Tactics tomorrow is really that huge of a boost, but this is because for whatever reason I have trouble thinking very highly of Tactics. Yeah it almost beat MGS 5 years ago, but we don't really know what that translates to these days.
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MnMZero | Posted 4/23/2009 7:45:46 AM | message detail
Next character battle to have at least 28 Pokemon in it, BOOK IT

Vincent
Squall
Auron
Charizard

Who has the balls to take Charizard?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 7:46:58 AM | message detail
Are you kidding? Charizard wins that.

I wish I even knew whether or not I was joking.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/23/2009 7:47:26 AM | message detail
Eh, people had trouble thinking highly of Tactics back when it gave MGS the fight of its life to begin with. Now, I still expect you'll see a dropoff from FFT and a boost from MGS which should allow ample room for G/S to slip in, but it's not like FFT doesn't have strength today.

*cue FFT getting fodderized down to Deus Ex level*
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/23/2009 7:55:50 AM | message detail
FFT may not be very strong, but it should be plenty stronger than Xenogears. Let's say it beats Xenogears 55-45, which is probably an absolute worst case scenario. Then GSC needs to go from beating losing 58-42 to winning 55-45 against Xenogears. That's a bit more than Snake swung on Megaman with MGS recovering in 2005, Snake appearing in Brawl, and Megaman dropping off the map. Now, GSC very well could have done that relative to Xenogears.....but FFT beating it 55-45 is pretty much a worst case scenario, and the gap is probably much larger.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 7:58:33 AM | message detail
It's not that cleanly transitive from a 1v1 match, though. Looking at today's match pic and this result, it seems very likely to me that Pokemon is benefiting from some sort of stand-out factor here, and that's against three Nintendo games. Can you just imagine tomorrow? It's drawn some very good opponents to stand out against.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/23/2009 7:59:27 AM | message detail
Much larger back then, I think I would qualify. How does FFT 2k9 perform against Xenogears 2k4? I think it's quite possible the answer is less than 55-45 indirectly.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/23/2009 8:01:05 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]