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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 687

MetricTrout | Posted 4/22/2009 9:50:31 PM | message detail
So, RBY and GSC next round. How will they split?
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dethfdddddh | Posted 4/22/2009 9:51:30 PM | message detail
another example of progenitor factor~
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Fast Falcon ate my bracket for dinner in the guru contest.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 9:51:37 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | #151
So, RBY and GSC next round. How will they split?


At this point, I can't see GSC being strong enough to hurt it significantly. And if RBY is at FF7 level like its trying to show us it is, MGS doesn't stand a chance even if its being split heavily.
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 4/22/2009 9:51:46 PM | message detail
Man i wish i could stay up to watch this but i gotta go sleep.

But either way it looks like we may have a new champion this year.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/22/2009 9:51:48 PM | message detail
I didn't share this beforehand because anecdotal evidence is generally worth crap, but given the results I think it's somewhat relevant.

At the school I go to, people have started playing Pokemon Red again. Not hardcore people, casual games at least 18 years old. This happened out of nowhere. They aren't frowned upon or viewed as weird; people were actually congratulating them for catching all 151 again.

Everyone loves RBY.

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Lopen | Posted 4/22/2009 9:51:49 PM | message detail
Wind Waker is going to look like a joke, let me just get these words in the air right now. Say what you want about SFF being dead in this format, but SSBM is the absolute worst match The Wind Waker could get this side of Ocarina of Time. It's going to need to be watching that Fire Emblem or Disgaea don't eliminate it.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
RockMFR 5 | Posted 4/22/2009 9:52:01 PM | message detail
I don't think RBY necessarily gets out of round 2. It's going to have a lot to deal with:
1) GS will almost certainly be there, and at the very best RBY will probably split the Pokemon votes 2/1.
2) There will be a stronger anti-vote, as having two Pokemon games in the same match will evoke a "wtf Pokemon is taking over!" reaction in a lot of people
3) Two fewer N64 games draining MM
4) For people who owned a Game Boy and a PlayStation (a common combo), the votes for MGS are going to be coming out of Pokemon's share
5) 24 days between now and that match - some of the Platinum fanbase should leave the site by then
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/22/2009 9:52:21 PM | message detail
So, RBY and GSC next round. How will they split?

I dunno, but if the RBY fans want another dominant performance, they'll conspire to give the other game nothing but pics with Pokemon that nobody gives a crap about.
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Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 4/22/2009 9:52:26 PM | message detail
Right now:

Pokemon on MM: 65.14%
FFVI on LA: 56.09%

Even if FFVI has dropped a bunch AND LA > MM, Pokemon is still a beast.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/22/2009 9:52:28 PM | message detail
If people really don't think of RBY as their favorite game, then it won't win when it meets games that a lot of people do think of as their favorite- FFVII, OOT, CT, LTTP, etc. But RBY is certainly no joke- you could maybe make an argument for its characters being jokes if they made a run like that, but RBY is probably the most influential game of its era. Oh, and by the way....Pokemon is the ultimate ensemble cast with 150 Pokemon plus other characters! It's got FFVI, and even Chrono Cross, beat out by a lot there.

Tomorrow looks interesting, but I stand by the RBY:GSC::OOT:MM analogy.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/22/2009 9:53:07 PM | message detail
I would say that RBY and GSC both advancing in R2 is more likely than RBY not advancing at all.

Which is to say, neither have any shot of happening.

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nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/22/2009 9:53:09 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato
I didn't share this beforehand because anecdotal evidence is generally worth crap, but given the results I think it's somewhat relevant.

At the school I go to, people have started playing Pokemon Red again. Not hardcore people, casual games at least 18 years old. This happened out of nowhere. They aren't frowned upon or viewed as weird; people were actually congratulating them for catching all 151 again.

Everyone loves RBY.


Actually, this is very true. I had a guy ask me what to do after beating Misty last week. Apparently he knew I was good at games. Awww yeah.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 4/22/2009 9:53:25 PM | message detail
RBY pokes > DP pokes > GSC Pokes > RSE's abortions.


Only RSE poke designs I liked were Ninja Gecko Family, Mudkip(and swampert), Metagross, Gardevoir, DON FRANCISCO(ludicolo), Milotic, and Groudon.

Feebas can go burn in hell.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/22/2009 9:54:29 PM | message detail

From: dethfdddddh | #152
another example of progenitor factor~


An excellent point. This didn't hit me until you pointed it out. Every series original has looked good. Even RE looked better than RE2.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
transience | Posted 4/22/2009 9:55:38 PM | message detail
I seem to say this once a contest, but this match kinda reminds me of when Tifa tripled up Vyse and everyone said she was a threat to beat Mario/Samus/Crono. then she came back to earth.

this is an awesome performance but let's try to hold our expectations back until we see something we can quantify -- ie, Metal Gear Solid.
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Lopen | Posted 4/22/2009 9:55:44 PM | message detail
I wouldn't take GSC to get out of tomorrow's match to be a sure thing anyway. Why are people thinking it's a foregone conclusion? They're not the same game. 5 years ago the game did lose to Xenogears, you know. I mean, I know Pokemon is more popular around here now but I'd never have taken RBY to lose there.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/22/2009 9:55:54 PM | message detail
SSBM is the absolute worst match The Wind Waker could get this side of Ocarina of Time. It's going to need to be watching that Fire Emblem or Disgaea don't eliminate it.

Actually, I think that FE's also got its worst matchup in Melee...
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/22/2009 9:56:29 PM | message detail
Oh, and after this, I feel good about SSBM beating WW worse than this. This match has shown me that Zelda can be beaten up by Nintendo. Maybe WW could have held up to Melee back in 2004, maybe not, but it's getting stomped with SFF this year. I think I'd still take SSBM > RBY at this point, though I've thought RBY would probably beat Brawl since before the contest and would take that with confidence now.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 9:56:53 PM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | #167
SSBM is the absolute worst match The Wind Waker could get this side of Ocarina of Time. It's going to need to be watching that Fire Emblem or Disgaea don't eliminate it.

Actually, I think that FE's also got its worst matchup in Melee...


Disgaeas got this
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Lopen | Posted 4/22/2009 9:57:18 PM | message detail
Actually, I think that FE's also got its worst matchup in Melee...

How so? You think people are going to vote the game because "OMG MARTH I KNOW HIM"

They're not at all the same kind of game, they're not on the same system. Fire Emblem's damage there from Melee should be minimal.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 9:57:38 PM | message detail

From: Lopen | #166
I wouldn't take GSC to get out of tomorrow's match to be a sure thing anyway. Why are people thinking it's a foregone conclusion? They're not the same game. 5 years ago the game did lose to Xenogears, you know. I mean, I know Pokemon is more popular around here now but I'd never have taken RBY to lose there.


Because as we see now, Pokemon gets a strong franchise vote. Its not going to be nearly doubling a zelda title then job tomorrow, especially when G/S is still a very highly regarded game.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/22/2009 9:58:22 PM | message detail
Actually, I think that FE's also got its worst matchup in Melee...

How so? You think people are going to vote the game because "OMG MARTH I KNOW HIM"

They're not at all the same kind of game, they're not on the same system. Fire Emblem's damage there from Melee should be minimal.


Actually, my logic there is that Melee helped make FE as popular as it is.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/22/2009 9:58:39 PM | message detail
The problem with FE/Melee is that everyone who has played FE has also played Melee. They have an insanely high playership overlap.

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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/22/2009 9:59:08 PM | message detail
The problem with FE/Melee is that everyone who has played FE has also played Melee. They have an insanely high playership overlap.

That too.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
Lopen | Posted 4/22/2009 9:59:22 PM | message detail
Its not going to be nearly doubling a zelda title then job tomorrow

Just think of it as Majora's Mask for one moment if you will.

I would've taken FFT and MGS over Majora's Mask without thinking twice. Zelda name alone can only do so much. MGS and FFT are not to be taken lightly.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 9:59:34 PM | message detail
In all honesty, Fire emblem is in for a beat down with Disgaea beating it. Too bad we didn't get a non Nintendo game in that match instead of Fire Emblem that could have capitalized on WW being sff'd down
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MetricTrout | Posted 4/22/2009 9:59:34 PM | message detail
Here is a question. How do you know that GSC is not actually stronger than RBY in a direct matchup? It seems to me that GSC is more popular among the more dedicated members of the fanbase, and it did get in over RBY in the 2004 contest?
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/22/2009 9:59:54 PM | message detail
This isn't a franchise vote. The Pokemon series lost to Metroid. This is RBY being probably a top 7 game, and very likely at least a top 10 game.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/22/2009 9:59:57 PM | message detail
What I want to know, why did we get RBY and GS since Crystal has more in common with GS then Yellow does with RB.
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Anyone?
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/22/2009 10:00:56 PM | message detail
I think that Crystal was released after 2000.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 10:01:00 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | #177
Here is a question. How do you know that GSC is not actually stronger than RBY in a direct matchup? It seems to me that GSC is more popular among the more dedicated members of the fanbase, and it did get in over RBY in the 2004 contest?


While I don't think its actually stronger, I think people are making it out to be fodder compared to rby which is completly false. It'll likely get like 40% on RBY in a non sff match, and thats more then enough to take out FFT and possibly MGS if this strength from RBY is legit.
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Gr8CyberMonkey | Posted 4/22/2009 10:01:28 PM | message detail
I'm thinking that Pokemon > MM will be a very popular pick among casual bracketmakers.
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The question to everyone's answer.
Lopen | Posted 4/22/2009 10:01:29 PM | message detail
The problem with FE/Melee is that everyone who has played FE has also played Melee. They have an insanely high playership overlap.

That may be, but that doesn't mean FE has any reason to cave disproportionately. I mean, everyone who's played FE has likely played SMB3 too, would you expect a huge SFF beatdown there too? How about Pac-Man vs FE?
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/22/2009 10:01:30 PM | message detail
Fire Emblem > WW gets SFF'd to hell and back book it.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 10:01:35 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #178
This isn't a franchise vote. The Pokemon series lost to Metroid. This is RBY being probably a top 7 game, and very likely at least a top 10 game.


1v1 aka anti votes

plus the % are pretty similiar
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yoshifan823 | Posted 4/22/2009 10:01:48 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | #177
Here is a question. How do you know that GSC is not actually stronger than RBY in a direct matchup? It seems to me that GSC is more popular among the more dedicated members of the fanbase, and it did get in over RBY in the 2004 contest?


RBY is the original. The fanbase may like GSC more, but the general population knows RBY even more.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/22/2009 10:02:39 PM | message detail
This is a seriously scary performance from RBY. I'd put it in the top ten games no questions asked after this, and you could make an argument to go higher. Let's make a list:

Final Fantasy VII
Ocarina of Time
Link to the Past
Chrono Trigger
Super Mario Bros. 3
Pokemon RBY
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Melee
Final Fantasy X
Metal Gear Solid
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Final Fantasy VI

The first six we've seen in action and have cemented their status, I think. The next three we haven't seen yet but seem like good bets. FFVI we have seen and it flopped, but it's there for now because I think it has a better argument than the other 3D games, at least until we see them in action. Of the others we've seen, SM64 and SMW have arguments to be there over FFVI, or SSBM/FFX/MGS if they flop.

I'm really looking forward to seeing the other elites in action. Especially MGS/FFVIII/SC; RBY might be able to escape this division even with Ocarina if none of them perform up to task. And that's a frightening thought.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 10:02:59 PM | message detail

From: yoshifan823 | #186
RBY is the original. The fanbase may like GSC more, but the general population knows RBY even more.


Its not like G/S/C isn't well known either though, its one of the top 10 best selling games of all time.
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yoshifan823 | Posted 4/22/2009 10:03:08 PM | message detail

From: Lopen | #183
The problem with FE/Melee is that everyone who has played FE has also played Melee. They have an insanely high playership overlap.

That may be, but that doesn't mean FE has any reason to cave disproportionately. I mean, everyone who's played FE has likely played SMB3 too, would you expect a huge SFF beatdown there too? How about Pac-Man vs FE?


Except for the fact that SSBM may have been responsible for bringing FE over here in the first place, and most people know FE because of Roy and Marth.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/22/2009 10:03:46 PM | message detail
Except for the fact that SSBM may have been responsible for bringing FE over here in the first place, and most people know FE because of Roy and Marth.

Another point I'm trying to make.
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yoshifan823 | Posted 4/22/2009 10:04:38 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #188
Its not like G/S/C isn't well known either though, its one of the top 10 best selling games of all time.


So, my question is, why weren't we expecting this power before hand? Also, will DPP bring the pain? I'm regretting not having it go further now, because Pokemon seems to be back, after the red-headed stepchild of the series kinda brought it down.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/22/2009 10:04:43 PM | message detail
GSC will do well tomorrow, but RBY slaughters it if they meet up.

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MetricTrout | Posted 4/22/2009 10:05:10 PM | message detail
Really? Both GSC and RBY sold enough copies for the difference in recognizability to be negligible. I mean, even RSE sold more than OoT and FF7 combined.
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Lopen | Posted 4/22/2009 10:05:11 PM | message detail

Except for the fact that SSBM may have been responsible for bringing FE over here in the first place, and most people know FE because of Roy and Marth.


Yes, but that in no way assures that these people are more likely to go to SSBM. The games are completely different, on different systems. Basically I think the only votes it loses in this case are the "I don't know the game but Marth was cool" votes. I think you'll be hard pressed to find fans of any of the three other games that haven't played SSBM.
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So I lost a bet to creativename (yeah...hardly shocking). Like usual, I should've known better!
FACT: Halo 3 was 1000% responsible for Master Chief's boost.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 10:05:19 PM | message detail

From: yoshifan823 | #191
So, my question is, why weren't we expecting this power before hand? Also, will DPP bring the pain? I'm regretting not having it go further now, because Pokemon seems to be back, after the red-headed stepchild of the series kinda brought it down.


Too many people had the bad performances from 1v1 when anti votes were prevelant stuck in their head.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/22/2009 10:05:26 PM | message detail
1v1 aka anti votes

plus the % are pretty similiar


Anti-votes? RBY is over 50% here. As far as anti-votes are concerned, you can treat today's match as RBY vs. Team N64.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/22/2009 10:05:42 PM | message detail
Also, saying this now:

None of the other Pokemon games will even come close to this. They'll do better than we expected, but RBY is *the* Pokemon game.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 10:07:22 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #196
1v1 aka anti votes

plus the % are pretty similiar


Anti-votes? RBY is over 50% here. As far as anti-votes are concerned, you can treat today's match as RBY vs. Team N64.


oh are you still thinking that xenogears actually was strong enough to get 60% on GSC? lol
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/22/2009 10:07:51 PM | message detail
Keep in mind that the bottom three today kill, and I mean absolutely obliterate, the trio Chrono Trigger was up against yesterday. And we thought that was a good performance.

I just... can't get over this. It's amazing. I'd be a lot happier if ****ing ratface wasn't in the match picture, though. I can't believe he did this to me again.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/22/2009 10:08:08 PM | message detail
Yeah, the anti-vote argument has been thoroughly debunked and I say good riddance. Pikachu got by on his iconic-ness, however undeserved it may be. I feel old because Pokemon is basically Mario for a younger generation.
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