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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 687

Karma Hunter | Posted 4/23/2009 8:01:33 AM | message detail
It's not that cleanly transitive from a 1v1 match, though. Looking at today's match pic and this result, it seems very likely to me that Pokemon is benefiting from some sort of stand-out factor here, and that's against three Nintendo games. Can you just imagine tomorrow? It's drawn some very good opponents to stand out against.

All the sweeter when we get to Pokemon RBY/Zelda: MM/MGS/Pokemon GS, I say!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/23/2009 8:03:20 AM | message detail
How does FFT 2k9 perform against Xenogears 2k4? I think it's quite possible the answer is less than 55-45 indirectly.

You think FFT/Xenogears would be a close match indirectly? Ehhhh.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/23/2009 8:04:15 AM | message detail
I'm wary on not trusting Pokemon to come out swinging with the ASV, so I don't know if MM's gonna look *that* respectable (uhhh wasn't it supposed to win?). Sure, it somehow didn't win the morning vote and it's going down with the DSV too... but we've seen that lead to taking the ASV in the past (curse you Zero).
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/23/2009 8:05:35 AM | message detail
I don't think Pokemon really stands out tomorrow. Its fanbase is broad enough that it permeates all fanbases, at least for RBY, meaning it's not just a Nintendo fueled thing. And I wouldn't expect MGS and FFT to overlap much given how little effect LFF seems to have had on the contest so far. It comes down to whether the OOT:MM :: RBY:GSC analogy is good or not.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 8:05:53 AM | message detail
All the sweeter when we get to Pokemon RBY/Zelda: MM/MGS/Pokemon GS, I say!

Hot diggity dog!

You know, I can still see Majora's Mask making it out of the next round. Pokemon's range seems that massive here, and we're really not sure how significantly Poke-fever will be diluted when there are two in the poll.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/23/2009 8:07:07 AM | message detail
You think FFT/Xenogears would be a close match indirectly? Ehhhh.

Never at the same point in time, but remember - a good chunk of the Noble Nine has likely been, at some point, stronger than Sephiroth 2k2. Xenogears in 2004 is the benchmark from which Pokemon has improved, so it's the relevant entity here - *not* Xenogears 2009. Meanwhile, FFT 2k9 is the game we care about because it has to actually compete against the Pokes, so FFT's strength in 2004 isn't necessarily material if you think it's had a substantial dropoff.

...I was pretty darn sure G/S was taking that match even before RBY killed here. G/S should be a *lot* weaker, yes, but... well, I've given my thoughts on this match enough by now.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/23/2009 8:20:26 AM | message detail
No way I'd pick GSC over MGS. This isn't 2004 where Snake almost lost to Frog and Bowser. This is 2009, after we've seen Snake beat Cloud. MGS is gonna be a beast, and I don't think even with Nintendo backing that GSC will be able to touch it. Second, easily, but over MGS? I think there's a better chance of FFT advancing than that.

Now, RBY on the other hand...
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/23/2009 8:30:54 AM | message detail
I don't think there's any chance MM makes it out of the next round. If FFT advances tomorrow, well, game over MM. But even if GSC is there, MM would have to go from 36% to something over 50% on RBY. I don't think we've ever seen double LFF that bad, and Majora's Mask is a Ninty game as well on top of that.

As long as MGS doesn't flop it's a good bet for first if GSC advances, but if GSC somehow beats MGS I wouldn't be surprised to see both Pokemon games advance next round.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/23/2009 8:32:52 AM | message detail
You know, since Pokemon is as widespread as Tetris, I wouldn't be surprised if it collapses next round.

It's as big as Tetris and has just as many sales and appeal as Tetris. Mudkip and Pikachu strengths are absolutely wonky just like L-Block.

Perhaps Pokemon is merely dominating here because the other games are "meh", but up against games people really like, it croaks?
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: MM > PD - Points: 48/64 Vote: R/B/Y
charmander6000 | Posted 4/23/2009 8:34:22 AM | message detail
We'll see that tomorrow then.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: MM > Pokemon R/B/Y Points: 49/64
ffmasterjose | Posted 4/23/2009 8:35:21 AM | message detail
Holy underwear I just saw how Chrono Trigger did in Europe yesterday! Niiiice
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50/64 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Pokemon RBY > Zelda: Majora's Mask | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
voltch | Posted 4/23/2009 8:38:35 AM | message detail
come on FFT,square's been doing not bad recently,let's hope the PSP remake and A2 helps the original one out.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/23/2009 8:41:55 AM | message detail
The difference between Tetris and Pokemon R/B/Y:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3446
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3462
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/23/2009 8:46:34 AM | message detail
Yeah, now just imagine that it's a super saiyan Tetris!

.. It's possible. =(
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: MM > PD - Points: 48/64 Vote: R/B/Y
transience | Posted 4/23/2009 8:57:47 AM | message detail
there's no way Xenogears beats FFT. there's like one poll that suggests it somewhere but it's loaded with FF titles. FFT wins that if only because of the name. it's got everything in its favour - even The List favours FFT, and that's the kind of thing Xenogears would thrive in since it's kinda like the Square version of Earthbound.

I still say that 2004 GSC/Xenogears match has zero relevance today though.
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xyzzy
voltch | Posted 4/23/2009 9:01:29 AM | message detail
G/S to pull a DKC2/RE on us?
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/23/2009 9:09:57 AM | message detail
come on FFT,square's been doing not bad recently,let's hope the PSP remake and A2 helps the original one out.

I still stand by Metal Gear Solid to beat FFT. FFT probably has fallen off the map by now; its main character struggled to beat LAHARL, of all characters, and Laharl is right down there with Guybrush and Ratchet as one of the weakest characters to ever make multiple contests.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/23/2009 9:10:58 AM | message detail
After looking at today's match, I'm starting to question *all* franchise votes.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: MM > PD - Points: 48/64 Vote: R/B/Y
hochiminhX | Posted 4/23/2009 9:12:30 AM | message detail
Keep in mind that FFT has a more hardcore fanbase than MGS and MGS will be leeched by Deux Ex. That said, I still feel confident that MGS wins fairly easily tomorrow. GSC will be going nowhere.

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The corpse's bitter crimson tears flow and mingle with the endless sand, feeding the chaos within me and making me stronger.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/23/2009 9:16:10 AM | message detail
Keep in mind that FFT has a more hardcore fanbase than MGS and MGS will be leeched by Deux Ex. That said, I still feel confident that MGS wins fairly easily tomorrow.

MGS leeched by Deus Ex? Please elaborate. I personally can't see Deus Ex getting above 10%.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
MetricTrout | Posted 4/23/2009 9:17:06 AM | message detail
I still think Pokemon G/S/C is actually stronger than Pokemon R/B/Y, which is why it got nominated in 2004. It seems that in every favorite version of Pokemon thread, G/S/C gets brought up a lot more.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
voltch | Posted 4/23/2009 9:17:19 AM | message detail
no need to elaborate,this is hochi we're talking about.
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hochiminhX | Posted 4/23/2009 9:17:44 AM | message detail
Deux Ex will be lucky to get 7% but it will still hurt MGS nonetheless. Even if it got 3% it still hurts MGS albeit by a borderline negligible margin. MGS and Dex Ex are both "Military hoo-rah" shoot em' up games

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The corpse's bitter crimson tears flow and mingle with the endless sand, feeding the chaos within me and making me stronger.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/23/2009 9:18:48 AM | message detail
I guess you have a point there.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
charmander6000 | Posted 4/23/2009 9:19:59 AM | message detail
I still think Pokemon G/S/C is actually stronger than Pokemon R/B/Y, which is why it got nominated in 2004. It seems that in every favorite version of Pokemon thread, G/S/C gets brought up a lot more.

It got more nominations because it had no competition while RBY had Tetris and Link's Awakening. Like Vice City GSC is everything RBY should have been, but outside the Pokemon fanbase I see RBY dominating (while Vice City would probably defeat GTA3)
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: MM > Pokemon R/B/Y Points: 49/64
HaRRicH | Posted 4/23/2009 9:20:41 AM | message detail
Sorry, the only word I heard was "negligible."
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Prototype
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/23/2009 9:26:42 AM | message detail
Looking at the results of yesterday's match and today's, I'm starting to scratch my head about just how much of a factor franchise voting really is...
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/23/2009 9:42:04 AM | message detail
...and seeing Majora's Mask perform like this really makes me question how strong it is as far as Zelda games go.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
voltch | Posted 4/23/2009 9:46:59 AM | message detail
maybe ,modern/old school games create different mindsets when it comes to voting.
lie i dunno,younger audiences franchise vote for games they never played,but once we reach gams they actually played,preference comes into play.
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Tohoya | Posted 4/23/2009 9:47:00 AM | message detail

I said this when I first took Pikachu far in 2007, Pokemon's strength isn't because of dillution of anti-votes, it's because Pokemon as a whole has gone from "OMG COOL POCKET MONSTERS" to "Ewww, who likes that kiddy crap" back to "OMG LET'S BATTLE MY LEVEL 100 MUDKIP AGAINST YOUR SCYTHER". People that were kids when the fad started were in that age between 13-17 when Pikachu and G/S bombed, and are now in their late teens/early 20's and ripe for the nostalgia vote picking.


Quoted for truth. I think a lot of the pokemon backlash has subsided, though I think Pikachu would still have some problems in 1-on-1 format since he still epitomizes what's wrong with the series in a lot of people's minds.
MetricTrout | Posted 4/23/2009 9:47:03 AM | message detail
Majora's Mask is stronger than Link's Awakening, weaker than Zelda 1, not sure about Wind Waker.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
creativename | Posted 4/23/2009 9:49:29 AM | message detail
Oh wow, surprising result today.

I've always thought for years Majora's Mask was overrated (in terms of expected strength) by just about everybody, I never expected much from it - but Pokemon being this dominant is extremely surprising. Link's Awakening being stronger than Major's Mask is also quite surprising to me - I didn't expect MM to be popular, but at least it's a console game.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 4/23/2009 9:49:31 AM | message detail
LA is stronger than Zelda 1, though.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/23/2009 9:50:14 AM | message detail
Majora's Mask is stronger than Link's Awakening

But I'd take Link's Awakening over MM considering that MM is considered a black sheep of the series.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
MetricTrout | Posted 4/23/2009 9:51:13 AM | message detail
This match is really bringing in the votes. Despite having 4-way SFF, it still is on pace to draw more votes than the Chrono Trigger match, and probably more than the Mario 64 match as well.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/23/2009 9:54:54 AM | message detail

From: Mac Arrowny | #483
LA is stronger than Zelda 1, though.


I'm still waitin' for this one.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: MM > PD - Points: 48/64 Vote: R/B/Y
MetricTrout | Posted 4/23/2009 9:55:46 AM | message detail
Majora's Mask is numerically outperforming Link's Awakening by quite a lot right now, actually. Majora's Mask is only scoring less than 1000 than Link's Awakening did by this time despite being hit by 4-way SFF.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
Tohoya | Posted 4/23/2009 9:57:01 AM | message detail
Is it possible that Pokemon is benefitting from LFF here?

I know they're all Nintendo, but I stand by my assertion that Pokemon does not have any more overlap with the traditional Nintendo fanbase than it does with anything else. Its popularity was widespread, and most importantly, it was on a system that was universally owned, and not limited to the traditional Nintendo fanbase. There are a huge number of people who owned a gameboy and look back at Pokemon fondly that also owned and loved PS franchises like FF and MGS.

Looking at this poll, I don't see much evidence for Nintendo/Pokemon LFF or SFF:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3301&num=4

Which means that a game with a fanbase nigh independent of traditional Nintendo is going up against 3 N64 games.

It's still incredibly impressive even if there's massive LFF going on, though.
Tohoya | Posted 4/23/2009 9:58:44 AM | message detail
This match is really bringing in the votes. Despite having 4-way SFF, it still is on pace to draw more votes than the Chrono Trigger match, and probably more than the Mario 64 match as well.

Further proof that Pokemon is not suffering from LFF or SFF here!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/23/2009 10:06:21 AM | message detail
lol never thought I'd see Pokemon easily lose the morning vote
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/23/2009 10:08:58 AM | message detail
Out of the Brawl and Melee cast series I believe that Pokemon has the least overlap because their games are mostly on handhelds and the DS and GBA don't really overlap with the Gamecube and Wii as much as you'd think and if anything it's best way for Xbox and Playstation fans to get exposed to Nintendo's series.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: MM > Pokemon R/B/Y Points: 49/64
MetricTrout | Posted 4/23/2009 10:11:43 AM | message detail
Yeah, Pokemon has always had a dedicated fanbase, making it not very susceptible to SFF. Sort of like Earthbound, but with about 10 times more fans.

Still, every other vote drawing match has had diversity in consoles and companies (Nintendo/Square/other). The exception is the Chrono Trigger match, which is the reason why it impressed me so much; drawing so many votes despite 4 SNES games, including 3 RPG. And even Chrono Trigger's match had both Nintendo and Square.

This match? 4 Nintendo games, 3 on the same console. Pokemon is looking damn impressive here.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
HaRRicH | Posted 4/23/2009 10:51:16 AM | message detail
Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
Super Mario Bros. 3
Super Smash Bros. Melee

Who's got the balls?
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/23/2009 10:54:33 AM | message detail
You evil bastard.

SMB3 > SSBM. TP ~= FFX, which SSBM and SMB3 should be able to beat. Pokemon RBY, as much as I love the idea of it being a top-tier game I'm not gonna put that much faith in it yet. If it beats MGS (or, more bizarrely, GSC does), then hell yeah I'd go SMB3 > RBY.
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Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/23/2009 10:55:29 AM | message detail
SMB3 > SSBM > Pokemon > TP
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 11:01:11 AM | message detail
Less than three days.

http://www.gamasutra.com/features/20030808/freeman.jpg

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Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
red sox 777 | Posted 4/23/2009 11:03:13 AM | message detail
More votes is not sufficient evidence to show a lack of SFF. Link by himself drew more votes in the post-final poll last year than Link, Snake, Cloud, and Crono did in the finals. Guess Link has less overlap with himself than with those other characters!
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/23/2009 11:07:01 AM | message detail
Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
Super Mario Bros. 3
Super Smash Bros. Melee


That's an interesting poll. I expect SMB3 wins the people who started gaming on the NES and most of the SNES people, RBY wins the rest of the SNES people and those who started on the N64, and Melee wins those who started after the N64. TP wins the people who vote for Zelda no matter what. SMB3 > Melee, I guess.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/23/2009 11:09:34 AM | message detail
And obviously things are not as clear-cut along generational lines as I wrote there, but I do expect each of the non-Zelda games would win in its generation, probably with the older generations being more balanced, but having more votes (median age is 19-20ish).
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/23/2009 11:11:58 AM | message detail
Pokemon is a pretty cool guy. He kills my bracket and doesn't afraid of anything.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.