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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 686

KamikazePotato | Posted 4/22/2009 1:45:21 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/22/2009 1:46:27 PM | message detail
fight
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In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg
creativename | Posted 4/22/2009 1:46:44 PM | message detail
Well hey, Chrono Trigger looking to finish 56+% - pretty good! I'm quite happy with that performance.

Last night I was a bit concerned at how well Earthbound was doing - it made CT's high percent look less impressive. But CT's percent on EB will look quite OK now. Assuming they finish 56/16 that's just over 22% for EB, pretty much just where the last contest's x-stats would place them.

They could well have dropped in strength similarly since then, but hopefully this indicates that any drop by Chrono Trigger is minor.

Very impressive overnight vote for CT too. I said last night this competition was weak so they couldn't take much percent in any case, but CT not really slowing down overnight is quite unusual for it.

The ASV vote here isn't being kind to CT, but of course Chrono Trigger's day vote standards are just about the worst, so this isn't too bad by those standards. There was a chance that due to its age CT's trends had become even more exaggerated but I'd say CT:DS has at least stemmed that possibility. CT will rebound a bit with the night vote too.

LttP will make CT's day vote look worse than YI's is doing, but at least it looks like CT wouldn't get walloped too bad by LttP 1v1.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
trannyscience | Posted 4/22/2009 1:47:14 PM | message detail
if you know it's a bad comparison, don't use it. RBY has *nothing* to go on here - it could be literally anywhere. it's best to let that unknown factor play out instead of trying to base it off Mewtwo or Pikachu.

if you thought FF6 had an ensemble cast...
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/22/2009 1:47:49 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter VS KamikazePotato


FIGHT!!
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
__hiei__ | Posted 4/22/2009 1:50:04 PM | message detail
people are saying LTTP's pack is better based on..what? the game that took second almost lost to doom
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/22/2009 1:50:07 PM | message detail
I'd rather try and base it off of *something*. Pikachu is at least somewhat representative of R/B/Y, and at the very least he's shown that Pokemon resists Nintendo overlap well.

It's more fun than going "R/B/Y will be super strong, book it", at least.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/22/2009 1:51:01 PM | message detail
From: __hiei__ | #106
people are saying LTTP's pack is better based on..what? the game that took second almost lost to doom

Probably the fact that Earthbound DID lose to Doom.
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I can feel it coming over me; I feel it all around me.
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg
ZFS | Posted 4/22/2009 1:51:03 PM | message detail
Might as well say RBY trashes every Zelda sales-wise, too.

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trannyscience | Posted 4/22/2009 1:51:04 PM | message detail
Pikachu is drawing from a lot more than RBY. it's like saying "MM is strong because Link is strong book it", or perhaps more relevant, "Yoshi's Island is strong because Yoshi is strong"
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/22/2009 1:51:12 PM | message detail
It's more fun than going "R/B/Y will be super strong, book it", at least.

N
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No matter what, no matter how, I know I'll make it through somehow.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/22/2009 1:51:25 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/22/2009 1:52:36 PM | message detail
Fine then.

R/B/Y will be super strong, book it. MM is done

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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/22/2009 1:52:59 PM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Pikachu_vs_Alucard_vs_Arthas_vs_Falcon_2008

Look what Captain Falcon did to Pika: almost made him lose to Alucard, and Alucard's just rapidly becoming irrelevant these days.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/22/2009 1:54:53 PM | message detail
MyWorldIsCrono
Posted 4/22/2009 12:26:22 PM
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filter
#443 Trends are trends, regardless of competition.


Completely false. Stick 2 games with similar trends against eachother and suddenly noone dominates a particular voting block and they go even throughout the match.

FACT or FICTION: Super Mario 64 > Metal Gear Solid > Goldeneye > Super Mario RPG > Mario Kart 64.
FACT or FICTION: Star Fox 64 > Donkey Kong Country > Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island > Kirby Super Star.
FACT or FICTION: Resident Evil 4 is in trouble due to RE1 and RE2 not impressing.
FACT or FICTION: Final Fantasy 7 > Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time in a one-on-one match.


Fiction. I'd move Mario Kart up between Goldeneye and MGS
Fact, seems prretty reasonable to me given what we've seen
Fiction, I've said since day 1 that old RE and new RE are completely different, and the same applies itself to MGS4 and the rest of the games.
Faction, too hard to say one way or another, especially since we haven't seen OoT yet. Either way, it would be a barnburner.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
red sox 777 | Posted 4/22/2009 1:55:27 PM | message detail
RBY has huge amounts of potential (I'd say its max is around FFVI level); no confidence on where it really is.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/22/2009 1:56:18 PM | message detail
Whoa there FFVI level. RBY could be pretty strong, but that's pushing it.
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I'm gonna keep on going, I know I'll be strong.
http://i195.photobucket.com/albums/z114/Javer8000/FanimeCon2008/Sandbag.jpg
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/22/2009 1:56:37 PM | message detail
Yeah, it's at least FF7 level
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
trannyscience | Posted 4/22/2009 1:57:37 PM | message detail
RBY could be FF6 level - I mean I wouldn't bet on it, but it could really be anywhere.
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg
ZFS | Posted 4/22/2009 2:00:24 PM | message detail
Let's no get carried away here. RBY might be strong, but I'd bet a lot on it not being a top 15 kinda game.

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trannyscience | Posted 4/22/2009 2:01:18 PM | message detail
and I would bet on RBY being stronger than Link's Awakening. *shrug*
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 4/22/2009 2:02:10 PM | message detail
it's not really fair to give MM the benefit of the doubt because of LA when we haven't seen Pokemon at all. that's like saying that FFT should beat MGS because everything FF has done well.

Agree or Disagree: MM will most likely fall between LttP and LA

LA got almost 44% on FFVI, that's near the top level of where I'd place Pokemon.

The Final Fantasy Tactics comparison is wrong because we know Metal Gear Solid will be within the range of FFVI and FFI and will be closer to FFVI while Tactics will be closer to FFI based on popularity of each game on GameFAQs.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Chrono Trigger > SMW2: YI Points: 45/60
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/22/2009 2:02:52 PM | message detail
Time to consult The List!

#28: Pokemon Red - GB

Hmmmm....
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I can feel it coming over me; I feel it all around me.
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/22/2009 2:02:58 PM | message detail
MM falls between LTTP and LA, but R/B/Y is assuredly stronger than LA, so...yeah.

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ZFS | Posted 4/22/2009 2:03:00 PM | message detail
I wouldn't.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/22/2009 2:03:58 PM | message detail
...Did we ever learn if games were grouped together for the list?

For all we know all the combined votes of Red, Blue, and Yellow would've made it Top 10 material!

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charmander6000 | Posted 4/22/2009 2:05:15 PM | message detail
For all we know all the combined votes of Red, Blue, and Yellow would've made it Top 10 material!

The drop down list only had Pokemon Red iirc.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Chrono Trigger > SMW2: YI Points: 45/60
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/22/2009 2:05:44 PM | message detail
Dun dun dun
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I can feel it coming over me; I feel it all around me.
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg
trannyscience | Posted 4/22/2009 2:05:54 PM | message detail
The Final Fantasy Tactics comparison is wrong because we know Metal Gear Solid will be within the range of FFVI and FFI and will be closer to FFVI while Tactics will be closer to FFI based on popularity of each game on GameFAQs.

the point is that we have no real idea where Pokemon falls, so to say "MM has this because LA did well" is unfair because we haven't seen Pokemon at all.

I want to say MM wins this easily as well, but I'm holding back because we've seen Pokemon grow bigtime over the past few years and don't care to write it off for essentially no reason.
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/22/2009 2:06:18 PM | message detail
...Did we ever learn if games were grouped together for the list?

For all we know all the combined votes of Red, Blue, and Yellow would've made it Top 10 material!


Too bad this match showed us that the list is unreliable.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/22/2009 2:06:32 PM | message detail
Oh.

...For all we know the votes that would've gone toward Pokemon Blue and Yellow were they on the list and grouped with Red would've made it Top 10 material! !

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 2:07:13 PM | message detail
I can't wait till tomorrows match just to see how strong pokemon can do in a 4way without anti votes

Because right now, everything we're arguing is just estimates or speculation. We have no real evidence of how strong it will be.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
charmander6000 | Posted 4/22/2009 2:08:18 PM | message detail
the point is that we have no real idea where Pokemon falls, so to say "MM has this because LA did well" is unfair because we haven't seen Pokemon at all.

Pokemon has a chance, I'm just saying that MM should be the favourite going in.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Chrono Trigger > SMW2: YI Points: 45/60
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/22/2009 2:11:20 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-17.jpg

PokeFEAR reaching critical mass!

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charmander6000 | Posted 4/22/2009 2:12:55 PM | message detail
Nice the good Pokemon picture got picked.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Chrono Trigger > SMW2: YI Points: 45/60
ZFS | Posted 4/22/2009 2:16:23 PM | message detail
Whoa, what a bad Zelda pic.

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http://i44.tinypic.com/hwh4yo.gif
trannyscience | Posted 4/22/2009 2:16:42 PM | message detail
Pokemon with 84%
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/22/2009 2:18:40 PM | message detail
I can't even see "Majora's Mask."

Not that it will make a difference to Zelda voters!
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: CT > EB - Points: 46/60 Vote: YI
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/22/2009 2:20:36 PM | message detail
Pokemon has the definite picture advantage, but MMX had a definite picture advantage on Link's Awakening.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
trannyscience | Posted 4/22/2009 2:24:02 PM | message detail
yeah, picture doesn't really matter.
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg
ZFS | Posted 4/22/2009 2:24:21 PM | message detail
Yeah, pictures don't matter too much when we're dealing with Zelda of all things. Can't hurt to have a great pic, but yeah.

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http://i44.tinypic.com/hwh4yo.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/22/2009 2:26:00 PM | message detail
I think pics matter less with games, but they do help bring up certain fond memories. Considering R/B/Y is running on fond memories, I'd say the pic helps it a fair bit. Nothing major, but every % counts!

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red sox 777 | Posted 4/22/2009 2:26:38 PM | message detail
No sword through the Zelda logo, no Triforce, Link not very prominent in the picture.....

Yeah, I doubt it really matters; it's still easily recognizable.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/22/2009 2:29:29 PM | message detail
Is that the cover art for Pika/Blastoise/Charizard?
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/22/2009 2:31:44 PM | message detail
Yes.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/22/2009 2:32:15 PM | message detail
Of course turtle would ask that.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: CT > EB - Points: 46/60 Vote: YI
nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/22/2009 2:40:04 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe
Is that the cover art for Pika/Blastoise/Charizard?


How could you not just know that? That kind of lack of knowledge makes me sick.

Also, R/B/Y gets 58% on MM. Awww yeah. My baby's gonna be kicking all kinds of ass.
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Watch and see.
trannyscience | Posted 4/22/2009 2:40:54 PM | message detail
ha, who knew this was common knowledge

well, besides all of you Pokefreaks
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xyzzy
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vbwhn4.jpg
Adamantno1 | Posted 4/22/2009 2:41:07 PM | message detail
Chrono is facing 3 opponents who probably suck in Europe too.

Yep. CT, despite not being released on the SNES, got a decent amount of hype that attracted the emulation crowd to it once emulation became relevant.
Earthbound went mostly unknown aside from some very minor "some people on the internet are talking about it every now and then" exposure, and I don't think Smash Bros attracted THAT much attention to it. probably got Ness some votes, but not Earthbound.
Lufia... yeah, it was released, but no one played it, and barely anyone knew of it, so it might as well not have been.
And Yoshi's Island... like in America, it was released at the very end of the SNES' lifetime, and did rather bad for a Mario game.

So yeah, CT doesn't have much opposition here. Throw in something that's actually strong in Europe, and it would've done worse.

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My nick's Adamant. I have a "no 1" that looks stupid. Would've changed it if I could without losing karma. So it's Adamant, not Adamanto or Adamantno.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/22/2009 2:42:50 PM | message detail

From: trannyscience | #148
ha, who knew this was common knowledge


Anybody that's ever bought or seen a Pokemon game in the store in the late 90s!
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: CT > EB - Points: 46/60 Vote: YI