GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 686
| transience | Posted 4/22/2009 10:07:44 AM | message detail |
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Play Chrono Trigger ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/22/2009 10:08:44 AM | message detail |
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Tag --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| MnMZero | Posted 4/22/2009 10:09:59 AM | message detail |
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I'd rather play SMW2 actually... --- Proud Supporter of Zero |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/22/2009 10:10:27 AM | message detail |
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boycott this topic, some stats noob made it --- I've been waiting for this moment all my life - it's my destiny. http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg |
| Big Bob | Posted 4/22/2009 10:12:52 AM | message detail |
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Done. --- Just say the word and it's bear time! http://backloggery.com/main.php?user=big_bob |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/22/2009 10:14:41 AM | message detail |
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Pretty weird when people are praising how well CT's trends holds up
when he drops 3% with the morning vote and murdering a three-pack that
technically shows itself weaker than LttP's. Just how easily pleased
are these guys --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
| Applekidjosh | Posted 4/22/2009 10:14:46 AM | message detail |
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who is this poser bring back ulti --- http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/7595/lovevk5.gif Tranquil as a forest, but on fire within. Once you find your center you are sure to win! |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/22/2009 10:15:42 AM | message detail |
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I tried before and couldn't get into it. That pure ATB system just isn't my thing. It seemed a lot more ATB-y than FFVII. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| red sox 777 | Posted 4/22/2009 10:15:48 AM | message detail |
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Perhaps I should play Earthbound in celebration of CT's performance here. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 10:16:53 AM | message detail |
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From: The n00b Avenger | #006 huh --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/22/2009 10:18:38 AM | message detail |
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Pretty weird when people are praising how well CT's trends holds up
when he drops 3% with the morning vote and murdering a three-pack that
technically shows itself weaker than LttP's. Just how easily pleased
are these guys Beats me. Apparently, I'm the only reasonable mind here. Everyone else is orgasming over CT's performance and ignoring the fact that this fourpack is weak, weak, WEAK. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/22/2009 10:19:15 AM | message detail |
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Apparently, I'm the only reasonable mind here. black turtle is that you --- I'm gonna keep on going, I know I'll be strong. http://i195.photobucket.com/albums/z114/Javer8000/FanimeCon2008/Sandbag.jpg |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/22/2009 10:20:01 AM | message detail |
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black turtle is that you How dare you?! --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 10:20:28 AM | message detail |
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From: Fayt_Esteed | #011 once again, trends mean nothing with the strength of the competition. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/22/2009 10:20:31 AM | message detail |
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Yeah, you're right. That's an insult to BT. --- No matter what, no matter how, I know I'll make it through somehow. http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/Saturn.gif |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/22/2009 10:24:38 AM | message detail |
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From: MyWorldIsCrono | #014 Yes, yes it does. Chrono is facing 3 opponents who probably suck in Europe too. And he still drops from nearly 59.5% to 56.5% going into the morning. Explain to me how this is impressive. --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 10:24:42 AM | message detail |
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And regardless of the competition, CT is doing amazing. It looks almost
equal to its strength in 2004 when we all expected a major drop off. If
you don't think thats impressive, I don't know what your expectations
for CT was. To be stronger then 2004? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/22/2009 10:25:53 AM | message detail |
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Yeah, because dominating cult games no one cares about is oh so impressive. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 10:26:56 AM | message detail |
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You're just trying to find reason to discount CT methinks. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/22/2009 10:28:57 AM | message detail |
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You're just trying to find reason to discount CT methinks. Again, who was the one who called Altair's strength in question after round 1? Me! --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/22/2009 10:29:19 AM | message detail |
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Doing the same thing it's done before means there's no reason to
discount it or praise it. It's just performing. Big whoop. Like OMG IT
DIDN'T DROP THAT MUCH WHOO HOO. Is silly to dance around and be excited
about it --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 10:29:45 AM | message detail |
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From: Fayt_Esteed | #020 But that has nothing to do with this match. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft |
| red sox 777 | Posted 4/22/2009 10:30:41 AM | message detail |
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Yoshi's Island is about to hit 60% on Earthbound and will likely end up
a good deal above that by the time the ASV is through, so it's
basically redeemed itself after a bad start, or rather a very good
start for EB. CT is currently at the highest percentage it's been the entire match, and it's gone up a full 3% since the end of the power hour, which is still its worst hour of the day so far. Trends-wise, this is an absolutely collossal improvement. Yes, trends =/= strength, and no, no one is claiming things for certain based on extrapolations of fodder and a new entrant. You can say that CT looks good without being certain of how strong it is. We are certain of very very little in these contests, as everyone here should know by now. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
| WarThaHedgehog | Posted 4/22/2009 10:36:51 AM | message detail |
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So, let's see what happened overnight... Trigger didn't die during Europe, and Yoshi's Island pulled to a solid % on Earthbound. I approve. --- http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/3230/takerface.gif |
| red sox 777 | Posted 4/22/2009 10:37:31 AM | message detail |
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Lots of people thought Altair wasn't worth that much, and never doubted that Zack would destroy him, Fayt. Yes, yes it does. Chrono is facing 3 opponents who probably suck in Europe too. And he still drops from nearly 59.5% to 56.5% going into the morning. Explain to me how this is impressive. CT has without fail utterly collapsed in Europe every match since 2006, by much more than 3%. Crono fell a full 15% relative to Vincent from the power hour to his worst hour in the Europe vote in 2007. By contrast, today, CT did 2% better in the Europe/late night vote than he did in the power hour, which is still its worst hour of the day so far. Unless you're saying that CT is still below average in Europe- there's no question about that, of course it is. But no one could have reasonably expected otherwise. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 10:38:54 AM | message detail |
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Altairs ceiling was maybe beating Duke. Thats not THAT off. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/22/2009 10:40:39 AM | message detail |
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But that has nothing to do with this match. At any rate, my reasoning for doubting Chrono Trigger is no different from doubting Altair, which is we're going to have to see just how well it does against games that actually have a fanbase. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| transience | Posted 4/22/2009 10:42:32 AM | message detail |
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gotta go with red sox on this one. --- xyzzy http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg |
| red sox 777 | Posted 4/22/2009 10:43:23 AM | message detail |
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If you really want to draw parallels to Division 1 of the 2008 contest
(I see no reason to do so), a much better comparison would be Zack.
People continually refused to believe he had real strength for 3 rounds
even as he smashed their expectations each round, making up excuses
about his opponents being weak (while Link of all people was in the
poll!), until Zack led against Mario for a bit and only lost by 1200. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 10:45:18 AM | message detail |
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From: red sox 777 | #029 All I can say is PWNT --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/22/2009 10:45:56 AM | message detail |
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Give it up guys. This dude called Altair being weak. Your arguments are no match. --- I can feel it coming over me; I feel it all around me. http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/22/2009 10:46:35 AM | message detail |
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If you really want to draw parallels to Division 1 of the 2008
contest (I see no reason to do so), a much better comparison would be
Zack. People continually refused to believe he had real strength for 3
rounds even as he smashed their expectations each round, making up
excuses about his opponents being weak (while Link of all people was in
the poll!), until Zack led against Mario for a bit and only lost by
1200. Actually, I'm not doubting that CT has proven strength. I'm merely doubting that we can draw conclusions off of a fourpack as weak as this. --- "Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/22/2009 10:49:02 AM | message detail |
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What the heck is the point of this. Chrono Trigger's path is about as
set as anything. A few percentage points of strength one way or the
other isn't going to change anything (sadly). --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 10:49:34 AM | message detail |
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From: PartOfYourWorld | #033 Chrono Trigger characters for next battle --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/22/2009 10:50:47 AM | message detail |
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The next Character Battle will feature Darth Vader, Gandalf, and
Batman, so I doubt we'll spend much time yapping it up about Chrono
Trigger characters! --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 10:53:01 AM | message detail |
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I still don't see why you think a game site is gonna have a non game contest >_> --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft |
| paulg235 | Posted 4/22/2009 10:53:35 AM | message detail |
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Someone should try and makeSS Crono for each match he's in just to see
if Bacon allows it (He let in a photoshop Samus, so why not). --- The Gamer In Me http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=158 |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/22/2009 10:53:49 AM | message detail |
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Half our normal polls of the day have nothing to do with games. There's
no reason we can't expand the Character Battle, at least for one year. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 4/22/2009 10:55:39 AM | message detail |
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At least finish up the other topic <.< --- Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/22/2009 10:59:01 AM | message detail |
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Oh btw I didn't see anyone mention it but... I just realized Lufia actually cut Earthbound once at night. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/blue/Albion+Hero.png Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft |
| MnMZero | Posted 4/22/2009 11:19:14 AM | message detail |
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I feel like cutting Earthbound too sometimes... --- Proud Supporter of Zero |
| charmander6000 | Posted 4/22/2009 11:29:50 AM | message detail |
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Hmm... my Internet Explorer seems to not be working for GameFAQs, but
FireFox is working fine, is anyone encountering the same problem? --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: Chrono Trigger > SMW2: YI Points: 45/60 |
| ffmasterjose | Posted 4/22/2009 11:39:56 AM | message detail |
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Pokemon RBY > Zelda MM tomorrow let's gogogo! --- 46/60 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest NP: Chrono Trigger > SMW 2: Yoshi's Island | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4 |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 4/22/2009 11:54:35 AM | message detail |
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I don't know why people are trying to undermine CT's performance. I
don't think anyone was pegging it at 57.5% for this match. I had it
around 50-51% here. I think a lot of people were trying to say it was
because YI sucked because of how close Earthbound was to it, but it's
pulled safely away from Earthbound. This is a great performance for CT. CT is getting around 71.5% on YI right now, by the way. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/22/2009 11:56:40 AM | message detail |
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I had it at 55%, switched it to 54% at the end, and now obviously
regret it. I expected it's competition to be junk, but this is still a
great performance. I still think Mario 64 will do a fine job holding
its own in the next round, though. I'll probably peg it to break 40% on
CT despite another Mario game in the poll. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| MnMZero | Posted 4/22/2009 12:00:17 PM | message detail |
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When's the next match where first place is seriously debatable? I'm bored... --- Proud Supporter of Zero |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/22/2009 12:00:33 PM | message detail |
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Here comes the ASV, favoring the bawling little brat. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/22/2009 12:01:40 PM | message detail |
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If we're not going to count Majora's Mask, then... the match right
after it? I understand MGS is the big favorite, but there should be
room for debate when it's up against a game that essentially tied it
last time. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/22/2009 12:03:16 PM | message detail |
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Heck, I think the next three matches feature a somewhat plausible shot for a surprise winner. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/22/2009 12:07:57 PM | message detail |
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Well, looks like CT's ASV still blows. --- I'm gonna keep on going, I know I'll be strong. http://i195.photobucket.com/albums/z114/Javer8000/FanimeCon2008/Sandbag.jpg |
