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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 685

LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 10:00:49 PM | message detail
Aw yeah, nice update by Lufia to end the Power Hour.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/21/2009 10:03:03 PM | message detail
I'm not "getting at" anything. YI is barely at 55% during the Power Hour (which, despite what some would lead people to believe, is worlds better for traditional Nintendo/Mario than the night vote). Assuming EB doesn't have Phoenix Wright trends or anything, if YI had turned out to be a bit weaker or if the dominant entry in the match was something less favorable to it (ie any Nintendo with a name) it could have won. That is something to take heed of.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 10:03:43 PM | message detail
Starman.net might be able to get a couple hundred votes total, which is really a non factor for a match with about 120k votes

...haven't you bragged about rallying several hundred votes in these contests, specifically Mega Man/WCC? Funny you're calling it a non-factor now.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MetricTrout | Posted 4/21/2009 10:04:11 PM | message detail
So how would Super Mario Bros. 2 be doing if it was in Yoshi's Island's spot, and had a pic of Mario?
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transience | Posted 4/21/2009 10:04:46 PM | message detail
yeah, this is an awful performance by YI. hopefully it stops the whole 'franchise voting' thing - it had every reason to do great here and is going to lose updates to Earthbound. not a good show at all.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 10:04:54 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #303
Starman.net might be able to get a couple hundred votes total, which is really a non factor for a match with about 120k votes

...haven't you bragged about rallying several hundred votes in these contests, specifically Mega Man/WCC? Funny you're calling it a non-factor now.


The WoW fanbase and a small site for a niche game is different.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 10:05:00 PM | message detail
Haha. I remember Somebody saying they'd take SMB2 in this match. Heck, one said Mario's Time Machine (Turtle?).

Some of you people end up looking dumber than me!
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: CT > EB - Points: 46/60 Vote: YI
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 10:05:03 PM | message detail
Mario Bros. 2? I doubt it'd be doing much better or worse.

...No clue though.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 10:05:45 PM | message detail
One vote gain for Yoshi's Island there.

And with that, I'm off to bed.
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redrocket | Posted 4/21/2009 10:05:55 PM | message detail
Someone said Mario Paint would be winning! You know who you are.

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transience | Posted 4/21/2009 10:06:07 PM | message detail
Mario 2 would take Yoshi's Island, probably.
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xyzzy
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 10:06:15 PM | message detail
God damnit EarthBound, cut so I can go to sleep feeling happy.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/21/2009 10:06:35 PM | message detail
Mario Paint was awesome and you know it

*swats flies*
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 10:06:39 PM | message detail
Heck, one said Mario's Time Machine (Turtle?).

Yes, Turtle.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 10:06:40 PM | message detail
I think Mario Paint could win. You are all basing too much off of Earthbounsd current %.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
RPGuy96 | Posted 4/21/2009 10:07:00 PM | message detail
There's a difference between "better than the night vote" and "better than CT with it." Look at yesterday's match - SM64 pulled 44% in the Power Hour, 43% at night, 45% during school, and 48% after school, and that's with two night vote titans in the match.

It's not the Nintendo Power Hour any more.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/21/2009 10:07:24 PM | message detail
I think Mario Paint could beat WoW too alby
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/21/2009 10:08:39 PM | message detail
You know, I like this contest. It's like people are actually voting based on the merits of games, instead of voting for everything Nintendo like in 2005-7. That seems to have been what the Boost was- an influx of a large bloc of people who voted anything Nintendo over anything else- and it appears to be gone now. The "Old Nintendo" fanbase is much more reasonable.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 10:09:37 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #318
You know, I like this contest. It's like people are actually voting based on the merits of games, instead of voting for everything Nintendo like in 2005-7.


We haven't had a game contest since 2004.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: CT > EB - Points: 46/60 Vote: YI
HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 10:10:37 PM | message detail
Haha, SMB2 versus SMW2:YI? SMW2:YI because it's not got a stigma of being a bad SMB-game -- it's just a different one. That said, I would have to vote SMB2 -- it was the first game I ever fairly beat (killing King Wart with Luigi with one heart, no lives, and no Game Genie for my first time rocked...that's a defining game memory for me!).
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
red sox 777 | Posted 4/21/2009 10:11:02 PM | message detail
We had character battles though, and Nintendo utterly dominated those.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 10:11:44 PM | message detail
Yeah, but we know how games and characters go down around these parts.
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BGE2 - Today: CT > EB - Points: 46/60 Vote: YI
ff6man | Posted 4/21/2009 10:11:59 PM | message detail
So tomorrow I've got Pokemon > Majora's Mask... I don't think it's THAT crazy an idea considering nostalgia votes + Majora never really being that loved...

Oh who am I kidding I wish I'd picked Majora to win. >_<
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Rs Name: Igglybuff138 - Skill Total - 1820+ - Combat level 118 - 281/281 Quest Points -
BGE Contest Score: 48/60 Today: Chrono Trigger > Yoshi's Island
MetricTrout | Posted 4/21/2009 10:12:41 PM | message detail
Nothing is better than CT during the Power Hour. CT should fall to around 50% at the end of the match, which is still pretty impressive considering it is going up against a Mario game.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 10:13:20 PM | message detail
Time to argue hopelessly for MM > PD!
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: CT > EB - Points: 46/60 Vote: YI
red sox 777 | Posted 4/21/2009 10:13:55 PM | message detail
Or actually, to rephrase that, it feels as though individual people are voting for individual games, and not as part of a fanbase. Hence, the relative lack of SFF/LFF.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 10:13:58 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | #324
still pretty impressive considering it is going up against a Mario game.


*Yoshi game struggling with Earthbound.
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BGE2 - Today: CT > EB - Points: 46/60 Vote: YI
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 10:15:45 PM | message detail
EB won't ever take the lead here
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LordLockeRA | Posted 4/21/2009 10:17:12 PM | message detail
*prepares to go and vote for Yoshi's Island, stops to look at the match pic.*

Aw, Baby Mario is crying.

*images of many, many episodes of infant bawling passes through head*

So... much... crying. Please, stop crying. Quiet, please. No, not louder. Stop crying stop crying stop crying STOP!

*votes for Earthbound*

Goddamnit. I think this is the first time I ever anti-voted a game due to match pic.
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Meeh. Whatever.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/21/2009 10:17:34 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | #324
. CT should fall to around 50% at the end of the match


Crono has never fallen that much in any of his matches in the past 2 years. Putting aside the one against Vincent and Link, the most he ever dropped from the power hour to the end was 2%. With Link and Vincent he fell over 3% but that was a combination of being pounded by Link's awesome day vote and FF7's at the time horrid Power Hour. It would take a lot to duplicate that
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MetricTrout | Posted 4/21/2009 10:18:18 PM | message detail
Well, it is pretty obvious that Yoshi's Island > SMB2 one-on-one, but who would be stronger in a four-way format?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1181

Mario 2 beat Yoshi's Island in this poll and would probably get a better pic, with a picture of Mario as opposed to that annoying baby Mario.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 10:18:20 PM | message detail
Not to mention this match has nothing that resembles a day vote outside of mario
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BidoofKiller | Posted 4/21/2009 10:19:50 PM | message detail
"EB won't ever take the lead here"
but it can take 2nd place
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 10:20:22 PM | message detail

From: BidoofKiller | #333
"EB won't ever take the lead here"
but it can take 2nd place


Lead as in over SMW2

Its supposed to be cutting by this time if it wanted to take the lead over night.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 10:20:48 PM | message detail
Hm.. looks like EB won't even win the night vote here.
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BGE2 - Today: CT > EB - Points: 46/60 Vote: YI
creativename | Posted 4/21/2009 10:25:28 PM | message detail
SMB2 should beat Yoshi's Island without trouble, and I always would've said that. It's actually considered a real Super Mario Bros. series game (even though, ironically, in Japan it wasn't an SMB game at all...). There's no way SMB2 would be doing worse than this against EB, so the question of who'd be stronger between SMB2 and YI is pretty much resolved.

There's a difference between "better than the night vote" and "better than CT with it." Look at yesterday's match - SM64 pulled 44% in the Power Hour, 43% at night, 45% during school, and 48% after school, and that's with two night vote titans in the match.

It's not the Nintendo Power Hour any more.


I don't quite know what you mean, it's the NPH as much as it's ever been. Nintendo still does very well with it. Stuff like Frog has always been more extreme than Nintendo.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 10:25:59 PM | message detail
all your percentage are belong to CT now

This might get over 56% before Europe vote
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 10:28:15 PM | message detail
Turtle sure has gotten quiet ever since the match started!
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: CT > EB - Points: 46/60 Vote: YI
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/21/2009 10:30:59 PM | message detail
CT is stealing Earthbound's votes to get over 60% updates
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/21/2009 10:31:22 PM | message detail
I don't quite know what you mean, it's the NPH as much as it's ever been. Nintendo still does very well with it. Stuff like Frog has always been more extreme than Nintendo.

Compare to 2006, where The Legend of Zelda got 57% on Final Fantasy during the Power Hour, 48% at night, and 51% during the day. That's a goddamn Nintendo Power Hour.
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MetricTrout | Posted 4/21/2009 10:32:03 PM | message detail
As to how much Chrono Trigger will fall:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2902&num=4

I think it should follow the trends of this match: Crono and 3 midcarders, none with particularly defined trends like Link or FF7.

We have Crono at 38.67% at the end of the Power Hour, and finishing at 36.65%. Which is at 94.77% of his Power Hour strength. Multiply that by Chrono Trigger's current Power Hour value of 54.51%, and you get 51.66%.

Still a great showing by Chrono Trigger. I was sort of afraid it would bomb, but it turns out Yoshi's Island was the one that bombed.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 10:33:00 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | #341
As to how much Chrono Trigger will fall:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2902&num=4

I think it should follow the trends of this match: Crono and 3 midcarders, none with particularly defined trends like Link or FF7.

We have Crono at 38.67% at the end of the Power Hour, and finishing at 36.65%. Which is at 94.77% of his Power Hour strength. Multiply that by Chrono Trigger's current Power Hour value of 54.51%, and you get 51.66%.

Still a great showing by Chrono Trigger. I was sort of afraid it would bomb, but it turns out Yoshi's Island was the one that bombed.


im sorry, the awesomeness of the 61% update CT just got drowns out everything you just said
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/21/2009 10:33:28 PM | message detail
CT over 55% now and rising again. It just had a 61% update preceded by two 59% updates. I wonder if it can double the other games combined for a update some time tonight. And I'll make a prediction here that CT actually wins the day vote over Earthbound and Lufia, doesn't fall too much against YI, and finishes above 55%.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 10:34:42 PM | message detail
Might as well see what everybody thinks are the biggest bombs of the contest so far.
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creativename | Posted 4/21/2009 10:35:33 PM | message detail
Compare to 2006, where The Legend of Zelda got 57% on Final Fantasy during the Power Hour, 48% at night, and 51% during the day. That's a goddamn Nintendo Power Hour.

That's because it was FF, and on top of that it was the finals. Both things exaggerate the results greatly. Early vote bandwagoning, favoritism etc. is scaled up in the finals (see L-Block's and Snake's monster late round power hours).

If that match was held again today I doubt the relative trends would be much different.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
creativename | Posted 4/21/2009 10:37:56 PM | message detail
And I'll make a prediction here that CT actually wins the day vote over Earthbound and Lufia, doesn't fall too much against YI, and finishes above 55%.

I don't know about 55% - that Europe vote will hurt (though YI will be the only game that benefits, and it's not strong enough to benefit overly much). But the competition here is quite weak so it shouldn't finish that much below 55%. My guess right now would be it finishes with 53+%.
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Save_Us.RAT
BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
red sox 777 | Posted 4/21/2009 10:38:59 PM | message detail
MetricTrout: You're forgetting three things. One, all of CT's competition today have great power hours, much much better than Crono's competition in that match. Two, even last year, Crono's day vote looked a bit better than in 2007. Three, CTDS very possibly improved CT's Europe and day vote strength.
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MetricTrout | Posted 4/21/2009 10:40:30 PM | message detail
Chrono Trigger has always been higher up in the Power Hour hierarchy than any Nintendo game, though.

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Chrono_Trigger_vs_Link_to_the_Past_2004
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Mario_vs_Crono_2005
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Crono_vs_Bowser_2006

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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 4/21/2009 10:42:11 PM | message detail
I believe the CT/LttP match was before the poll time change, so there wasn't a power hour then.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/21/2009 10:46:39 PM | message detail
Neither was 2005. 2006 was when we first started midnight eastern. It was also the year Crono displayed the strange trend of completely dying after the first 3-4 hours that hasn't really been seen to that extent before or after
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