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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 685

Team Rocket Elite | Posted 4/21/2009 9:42:28 PM | message detail
Does anyone have graph of the EB/Doom match trends?

http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/04Spring/04Spring-AllVoteUpdates.txt
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 9:42:31 PM | message detail
Replace CT with...uh...Metal Gear Solid, and Lufia II with Monkey Island.

Who ya got?

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 9:42:55 PM | message detail

From: FastFalcon05 | #246
Now granted I"m not going to be the most mature person when it comes to Yoshi's Island, since it was my pick to get in this contest, but why don't we wait until the day vote and after school vote before declaring it a failure. Chrono Trigger should be impressing here, it's always been a god at night; this isn't surprising.


It may get down to about 20% overnight, it'll be lucky to be doing this good after the asv.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 9:43:09 PM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | #245
For a game that's part of one of Nintendo's biggest series, it's doing pretty damn bad.


I'm still surprised people aren't more shocked about this!

It's a Yoshi game!
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BGE2 - Today: CT > EB - Points: 46/60 Vote: YI
ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 4/21/2009 9:43:13 PM | message detail
overestimating lttp. FF7 won't let anything sff it enough to lose to lttp

Is this how the majority feels? I thought for sure the popular choice and not even considered an upset pick is LttP > FFVII .. <.<

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FastFalcon05 | Posted 4/21/2009 9:43:48 PM | message detail
Yeah, I"m aware, but it's also still the night vote. I'm not very concerned here. I would expect Earthbound and CT to have more intense fanbases and also more night-geared ones. I will do everything in my power to spin this until it is impossible.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/21/2009 9:44:21 PM | message detail
This is just pathetic from Mario. I realize the potential for overlap here is high because we're dealing with four late-era SNES games, but good god, it's the only one that isn't an RPG. This 55% on Earthbound is a joke, especially when compared to the meat grinder the other Mario and Zelda games have put everything through.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/21/2009 9:44:22 PM | message detail
And of course CT > LTTP is still very unlikely, but it looks much more possible now than before the contest. We've seen that LFF has been very limited so far, and I'd definitely expect that to be the case with FFVII/CT/LTTP: these are 3 of our 4 top games after all, most of the site has played all of them. I've held CT to be equal or stronger than LTTP since before the contest, based on expectation of a large boost from CTDS. Depending on how well CT survives Europe and the day vote and thus where it ends here, it may or may not look stronger than LTTP 1v1....right now I'd say yes.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 9:44:23 PM | message detail
...This is the Power Hour, not the night vote.

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Childproof | Posted 4/21/2009 9:44:41 PM | message detail
The "It's a Yoshi game" is the weakest argument I've seen so far
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Is GrapefruitKing
Today's prediction: Crono 48.65% - waaah! waaah! 31.50% - fuzzy pickles 14.60% - Lufia II 5.25% Status: crap.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 9:44:50 PM | message detail

From: FastFalcon05 | #256
Yeah, I"m aware, but it's also still the night vote. I'm not very concerned here. I would expect Earthbound and CT to have more intense fanbases and also more night-geared ones. I will do everything in my power to spin this until it is impossible.


well we'll see next round!
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Yesmar | Posted 4/21/2009 9:45:17 PM | message detail
Since someone asked:

Time | Earthbound Doom
01:00 | 42.62% | 57.38%
02:00 | 41.43% | 58.57%
03:00 | 37.98% | 62.02%
04:00 | 41.08% | 58.92%
05:00 | 39.97% | 60.03%
06:00 | 40.05% | 59.95%
07:00 | 39.48% | 60.52%
08:00 | 41.51% | 58.49%
09:00 | 41.13% | 58.87%
~
12:00 | 42.65% | 57.35%
13:00 | 45.10% | 54.90%
14:00 | 45.31% | 54.69%
~
16:00 | 44.63% | 55.37%
17:00 | 44.43% | 55.57%
18:00 | 43.76% | 56.24%
19:00 | 44.49% | 55.51%
20:00 | 45.20% | 54.80%
21:00 | 44.00% | 56.00%
~
00:00 | 43.17% | 56.83%

Vote Shift: AT LEAST 07.33%


Remember that polls started at 3 AM back then.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 9:45:30 PM | message detail

From: Childproof | #260
The "It's a Yoshi game" is the weakest argument I've seen so far


You got any other explanation for this possible flop?

"Mario" is too hard to read for the kiddies?
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BGE2 - Today: CT > EB - Points: 46/60 Vote: YI
ZFS | Posted 4/21/2009 9:45:31 PM | message detail
Match doesn't really tell us anything about how much Chrono Trigger's dropped, since EB has probably dropped as well and YI is unknown.

Yeah, it's probably a good bet EB's dropped off since 2k4, too. Just a weak pack here, but still pretty good for CT after expectations coming in.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 9:45:33 PM | message detail
Looks like CT is stablizing.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/21/2009 9:45:39 PM | message detail
LttP > FF7 the cookie cutter? We're talking about a game that lost to a game that FF7 60-40'd in 2004, SFF or no...
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RPGuy96 | Posted 4/21/2009 9:45:42 PM | message detail
The Power Hour is CT's best time in recent history. Remember, this hasn't been the Nintendo Power Hour since 2006, it morphed into the CT and Mega Man Power Hour.
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 4/21/2009 9:46:00 PM | message detail
Eh, whatever. I'll reserve my judgment until after the ASV.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/21/2009 9:46:00 PM | message detail
Right now, CT has 74% on Earthbound. For what it's worth, it's supposed to get nearly 78%.

And that's with Earthbound getting hit from both the RPG and Nintendo side of things. EB's surprisingly solid performance here is the only thing keeping me lavishing CT's performance with praise.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 9:46:26 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be surprised if EB took the lead at some point. Mario in general falls off pretty hard after the PH.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 9:47:19 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #270
I wouldn't be surprised if EB took the lead at some point. Mario in general falls off pretty hard after the PH.


still playing "devils advocate" eh?
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Childproof | Posted 4/21/2009 9:47:21 PM | message detail

You got any other explanation for this possible flop?

"Mario" is too hard to read for the kiddies?



It came out very late in the SNES library, less than a year before Mario 64. So some people passed up on it.
Hell, that's exactly what happened to me
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Is GrapefruitKing
Today's prediction: Crono 48.65% - waaah! waaah! 31.50% - fuzzy pickles 14.60% - Lufia II 5.25% Status: crap.
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 4/21/2009 9:48:01 PM | message detail
And yeah, Yoshi's Island has GOT to win the day vote, so it'll look better than this by the end...right?

...Right?


Depends on how much further it drops during the night. It's harder to gain percentage in the day when so many votes are already in. I would've expected YI's early vote to be about where it would finish in the end, with a night drop and a day gain.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 9:48:42 PM | message detail
I'm playing 'holy god YI is pathetic' at the moment.

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Big Bob | Posted 4/21/2009 9:48:49 PM | message detail
The only thing I know about Lufia II is that when I was a little kid and still used the Nintendo hotline to ask for game help, an automatic message played that asked you to hit buttons for specific games or genres. Lufia II was one of those options.

...I really should play this game just to see why it needed its own section of the hotline.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 9:49:21 PM | message detail
I really don't see why it's impossible for it to be flopping simply because it's not really a Mario game traditionally.
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BGE2 - Today: CT > EB - Points: 46/60 Vote: YI
red sox 777 | Posted 4/21/2009 9:49:26 PM | message detail
CT cooling off now. Oh well, it should still rise for a couple more hours at a slower rate until Europe hits. If EB really is going to tank in Europe, then it's only got 3 hours to try to take the lead from YI.....don't think it's going to happen.
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Childproof | Posted 4/21/2009 9:49:43 PM | message detail
great game but gets soooo repetitive
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Is GrapefruitKing
Today's prediction: Crono 48.65% - waaah! waaah! 31.50% - fuzzy pickles 14.60% - Lufia II 5.25% Status: crap.
transience | Posted 4/21/2009 9:49:47 PM | message detail
this match pisses me off because it's the first CT has legitimately looked strong in I don't even know how long.

put it against LTTP straight up, or even OOT to see how it measures up. but this is gonna suck.
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Childproof | Posted 4/21/2009 9:50:36 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 9:50:39 PM | message detail
I'm not even really that surprised by what's happening, and I was very confident in YI > Earthbound. I knew Earthbound had enough of a fanbase to keep it from getting completely destroyed, and CT was going to suck up enough of the vote that YI couldn't pull too far away anyway.

I am surprised with the amount of ease CT has surpassed 50% though.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/21/2009 9:50:56 PM | message detail

From: Big Bob | #275
The only thing I know about Lufia II is that when I was a little kid and still used the Nintendo hotline to ask for game help, an automatic message played that asked you to hit buttons for specific games or genres. Lufia II was one of those options.

...I really should play this game just to see why it needed its own section of the hotline.


Lufia 2 has more puzzles in its dungeons than any other RPG I know of. That probably had something to do with it
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/21/2009 9:51:14 PM | message detail
Oh c'mon tran whatever happened to non-same-series-SFF-doesn't-exist-in-this-contest

CT > LttP > FF7 confirmed
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 9:51:17 PM | message detail

From: Childproof | #280
Because it's still a 2D platformer, with Mario in it


You really think voters care that much about Baby Mario?
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BGE2 - Today: CT > EB - Points: 46/60 Vote: YI
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 9:51:21 PM | message detail
3 hours to cut 400 votes? That's entirely possible. The night vote also favors games with more dedicated fanbases, due to low votals.

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ZFS | Posted 4/21/2009 9:52:25 PM | message detail
Yeah, this isn't far off from what I expected in this match -- 53/24/18/5 -- which might end up being pretty good!

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FastFalcon05 | Posted 4/21/2009 9:52:38 PM | message detail


It came out very late in the SNES library, less than a year before Mario 64. So some people passed up on it.
Hell, that's exactly what happened to me



Yeah, interestingly enough CTDS isn't the only DS remake that was successful, I think the Yoshi's Island gba port sold a couple million, not that that's very current, but still something to throw out there.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 9:52:39 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #284
You really think voters care that much about Baby Mario?


Yes. I hated it due to baby mario, and I really liked SMW.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/21/2009 9:53:05 PM | message detail
It is a much more daunting task when you consider that EB is only at 45.21% on YI at this point. It has to reverse YI's upward momentum first before it can cut.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 9:55:16 PM | message detail
EB needs to fight tooth and nail to take the lead before Europe, and I doubt it sees the lead a moment after that. Still...it's possible. Is starmen.net trying to pull anything yet?
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 9:55:43 PM | message detail
Sure, YI beating EB was completely obvious, but man...This is absolutely pathetic. Then again, CT sucking up votes meant that Yoshi's Isand wasn't really going to get that big a lead, and there's the fact that EB's fanbase will make sure that it doesn't get completely destroyed...
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 9:56:18 PM | message detail
Almost a cut by Earthbound there.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 9:57:43 PM | message detail
I doubt starman.net really plays a factor here. Not big enough.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/21/2009 9:58:13 PM | message detail
Sure, YI beating EB was completely obvious

*sees YI make a five vote gain*

Really? YI doesn't have to be much weaker than it is now or have a less fortunate fanbase split to drop this match entirely...
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 9:58:24 PM | message detail
Starman.net might be able to get a couple hundred votes total, which is really a non factor for a match with about 120k votes
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/21/2009 9:59:01 PM | message detail
No one was "debating this match for weeks". Us EarthBound freaks clung to the VC poll and prayed, knowing full well it would lose.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 9:59:31 PM | message detail
Really? YI doesn't have to be much weaker than it is now or have a less fortunate fanbase split to drop this match entirely...

...Eh? What are you getting at?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 10:00:02 PM | message detail
I'm not an EB freak!
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BGE2 - Today: CT > EB - Points: 46/60 Vote: YI
transience | Posted 4/21/2009 10:00:27 PM | message detail
when you invoke god into a contest match, you know you've got a losing pick!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 10:00:28 PM | message detail
Really? YI doesn't have to be much weaker than it is now or have a less fortunate fanbase split to drop this match entirely...

No. EB never had a chance, should never have been given a chance, and anyone who argued for it is stupid despite knowing EB was a huge upset pick regardless.

Haven't you read the last two topics?

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