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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 684

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/21/2009 7:26:05 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #380
Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island (SNES) FAQ/Walkthrough 3399
Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island (SNES) Red Coin/Flower Checklist 3033

Not that high for 6 months' worth of FAQ hits.

Devin Morgan's EarthBound guide has a total of 64000 hits in five years' time, which is damn impressive. That game has a ****load of guides up for it, including two other people having starred guides.

BELIEVE


Earthbound has more hits than Mario World as well. RPGs by their nature have more people looking for guides. Obvious logic flaw is obvious.

From: KamikazePotato | #387
If EB somehow pulls through, it's because its fanbase is crazy dedicated. It obviously wouldn't have a chance against YI in a 1 v 1 situation.


Earthbound's "hardcore crazy dedicated fanbase" didn't help Ness beat Pac-Man. They let him get almost beaten by TRAVIS TOUCHDOWN.

Who the hell IS that?

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MnMZero | Posted 4/21/2009 7:26:29 PM | message detail

I'd take Doom.


joke
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 7:28:36 PM | message detail
Funny you talk about people looking for upsets where they wouldn't materialize, yet you, Turtle, were clearly guilty of that last contest.

LOL hypocrites.
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KingBartz | Posted 4/21/2009 7:29:40 PM | message detail
RPGs by their nature have more people looking for guides.

This.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 7:30:25 PM | message detail
I don't know how to look at the hits for guides, but I would bet Lufia 2 has more hits for its guides then super mario world 2, as well.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 7:30:29 PM | message detail

From: MnMZero | #402
joke


I just have a different perception of this game for now, but I'll wait and see to eat my words in less than 2 hours!
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BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 7:30:36 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2098 Notice how Mario quadrupled Ness. SFF aside, Ness did worse than Joanna Dark

Alternatively, you could say Ness did almost as well as DK did against Mario in 2002, and we just saw DKC beat Doom despite LoZ:LttP.

Either way, neither comparison is very good.


There you go Earthbound apologists, you've succeeded in making me waste 10 minutes debating what was a foregone conclusion the second the bracket was released. I hope you're happy.

Ten minutes is all? You owe a lot more EB-"analysis" then, considering how much time of ours you've wasted.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/21/2009 7:32:29 PM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | #403
Funny you talk about people looking for upsets where they wouldn't materialize, yet you, Turtle, were clearly guilty of that last contest.

LOL hypocrites.


Any upsets I took had some rational thinking behind them. This one has NONE. The main argument for Earthbound is "Well, I know that it has a poor contest history, and clearly the fanbase isn't that dedicated because of it, but I REALLY REALLY want this obscure game to do well so I can validate my indie cred!"
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 7:33:22 PM | message detail
Heh. Did you even read this topic? Sheesh.
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BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 7:33:39 PM | message detail
Any upsets I took had some rational thinking behind them.

What about Axel Steel > Midna? There was no real argument for Axel to make the upset.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 4/21/2009 7:34:30 PM | message detail
Despite BT's brash and sometimes idiotic behavior, he is completely right in this instance. Everything is pointing towards EB being a failure. Statistically, it's done nothing to show it being strong. Logically, it's fighting a game that is completely out of it's league and a Mario game. The only thing it has going for it is a fanbase that is crazy enough to argue about it placing in a match it has no conceivable way of placing.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/21/2009 7:35:02 PM | message detail
I have yet to see one good argument supporting Earthbound. And Harrich, I added that Mario match because it shows how badly Ness folded under SFF, which will CLEARLY be present here with 2 other SNES RPGs and a second tier Mario title.
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Mumei | Posted 4/21/2009 7:35:44 PM | message detail
Despite BT's brash and sometimes idiotic behavior, he is completely right in this instance. Everything is pointing towards EB being a failure. Statistically, it's done nothing to show it being strong. Logically, it's fighting a game that is completely out of it's league and a Mario game. The only thing it has going for it is a fanbase that is crazy enough to argue about it placing in a match it has no conceivable way of placing.

Yes, but we've got nothing better to talk about, so just go with it. <_<

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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 7:36:01 PM | message detail
Hey.

We can debate an obvious match, just for the fun of it.

Or we can do nothing for a day.

If you chose the above option, great. If you chose the option below that, please stop complaining and do nothing for a day.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 7:36:12 PM | message detail
MARIO.
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BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/21/2009 7:36:33 PM | message detail
Bold Prediction: EARTHBOUND LOST?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/21/2009 7:36:48 PM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | #410
What about Axel Steel > Midna? There was no real argument for Axel to make the upset.


Guitar Hero is insanely popular and Midna sucked in 2007. We had never seen Guitar Hero represented in the contest and it had a huge range it could have fallen in. Axel fell into the bottom of that range unfortunately. We have a detailed history of Earthbound sucking hard in GOOD situations for it (that Alucard 4-pack) so how the hell can it beat something that clearly outclasses it in a situation where EVERYTHING IS AGAINST IT.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 7:37:49 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #414
Hey.

We can debate an obvious match, just for the fun of it.

Or we can do nothing for a day.

If you chose the above option, great. If you chose the option below that, please stop complaining and do nothing for a day.


or we can debate future matches that matter

like the upcoming pokemon matches
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
XxSoulxX | Posted 4/21/2009 7:38:15 PM | message detail
We have tonnes to talk about! How about FFVII/MK64/Goldeneye/SMRPG, for instance?

FFVII wins for sure, but Goldeneye and MK64 both being top 5 on the N64, will anything happen there? SMRPG could bring MK64 down, or it could outright beat it too. Three Nintendo games all being around the same strength... anything could happen.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 7:38:37 PM | message detail
You didn't say that about Mega Man 3!
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BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 7:39:03 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #419
We have tonnes to talk about! How about FFVII/MK64/Goldeneye/SMRPG, for instance?

FFVII wins for sure, but Goldeneye and MK64 both being top 5 on the N64, will anything happen there? SMRPG could bring MK64 down, or it could outright beat it too. Three Nintendo games all being around the same strength... anything could happen.


FF7 saps rpg votes from smrpg
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/21/2009 7:40:20 PM | message detail
I'm 70% leaning toward Goldeneye, though Mario Kart 64 advancing wouldn't surprise me too bad. SMRPG certainly won't do it any favors, though.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/21/2009 7:42:30 PM | message detail
1 hour and 20 minutes until CT shocks us all with a massive Snake 2k6-esque boost to challenge LTTP even with Triple Square LFF. BELIEVE.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/21/2009 7:42:43 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #419
We have tonnes to talk about! How about FFVII/MK64/Goldeneye/SMRPG, for instance?

FFVII wins for sure, but Goldeneye and MK64 both being top 5 on the N64, will anything happen there? SMRPG could bring MK64 down, or it could outright beat it too. Three Nintendo games all being around the same strength... anything could happen.


Soul's got the right idea!

I've been calling for a Goldeneye chokejob for a couple weeks now, and if it gets out of that match, and Mario 64 beats Chrono Trigger, that little "dream match" will finally be settled.

This division is deceptive, I have a feeling that round 2 and 3 will be really interesting to see.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 7:43:03 PM | message detail
Guitar Hero is insanely popular and Midna sucked in 2007. We had never seen Guitar Hero represented in the contest and it had a huge range it could have fallen in.

OK, be honest. You wouldn't believe that Axel Steel would do anything against Kratos Aurion (who couldn't beat Midna despite her sucking), now would you?
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/21/2009 7:44:00 PM | message detail
I seem to remember BT saying something about GH3 > SSBM, so.....
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 7:46:44 PM | message detail
Yeah, he was using sales as his justification. That's it.
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BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 7:51:48 PM | message detail
I think, given the information we had before the contest, there was solid room for an upset; EB killed SMW2:YI in to Top 100 List while EB got ~22% in the SNES-VC poll despite CT and four other SNES-RPGs...and it killed MMX and SMK while doing it. Meanwhile, SMW2:YI was right behind ToS -- a write-in, despite SMW2:YI being on the drop-down box -- and failed hard in all the SMB-polls. Based off that, it was a question of whether or not franchise-voting would overcome those odds against EB or not...

...and I for one bet against franchise-voting being a factor like 2004 (probably some others, too), so I took CT > EB. We've now seen that you don't want to bet against big franchise-games very often and Doom lost a match it should have won with some room to spare (darn u lff inconsistencies), so SMW2:YI definitely deserves to be the favorite. However, before the contest? Well, I'll just say it's nice to see you be especially aggressive about how wrong the prediction is now compared to before the lock-down.

Besides, EB's not out of it yet. I've given up hope on it, but SMK did very well so far and EB both out-ranked it on THE LIST (while SMK outranked SMW2:YI) and embarrassed it in the SNES-VC poll; MMX has also done well enough. That SNES-VC poll also showed potential for not letting other RPGs bother EB. EB also has the better picture out of Nintendo's games tomorrow.


I don't like its odds (and never REALLY did, like many upsets), but EB's not out for certain yet.
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Prototype
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 7:54:32 PM | message detail
I still remember GH3 > LoZ:TP being suggested as if it was already proven fact!
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Prototype
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trannyscience | Posted 4/21/2009 7:55:02 PM | message detail
I wish people would stop using the argument that people just vote for it because it has Mario in the title. they only do that when the other games are just too unknown for the average person to have played them.

I guess that can apply to this match, though.. CT is not a game that permeated the mainstream, Earthbound is that game those Smash guys are in and Lufia is lol wut

but regardless, stop saying the only reason Yoshi's Island would do well is because it's got Mario in the title! yeah, that's part of the reason so many people played it, but it's not fair to the people that legitimately like Yoshi's Island to say they only like it because of the title.

(Yoshi's Island sucks)
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/21/2009 7:55:41 PM | message detail
BT had the right idea with Axel except he forgot one thing, it's a casual heavy game that doesn't care about its characters. I compared Axel to the Madden of the contest.
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MetricTrout | Posted 4/21/2009 7:56:11 PM | message detail
The Virtual Console poll is meaningless. The reason so many people want Earthbound to be released for the Virtual Console is because so few people have played it. A bit like Chrono Trigger, which also performed well in that poll.

The good news for Earthbound is that its small fanbase is highly dedicated. The bad news is that Earthbound's highly dedicated fanbase is also quite small.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/21/2009 7:57:08 PM | message detail
People need to remember that the VC poll asked what game do you want on the VC, not which game is your favourite.

The VC poll favours games that people haven't played yet heard of and are interested in playing.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: SM64 > Castlevania: SotN Points: 41/56
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 7:58:13 PM | message detail
but it's not fair to the people that legitimately like Yoshi's Island to say they only like it because of the title.

No one's saying this. We (or at least I) was saying that there are probably a good amount of voters out there who would vote for YI based mostly on the Mario name and nothing else, and I don't see how anyone can deny that considering what we've seen in this contest so far. I wasn't attacking anyone's opinions or anything.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 8:00:58 PM | message detail
Nothing to do but wait now and see if playing devil's advocate was actually worth it.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 8:04:04 PM | message detail
Playing Devil's Advocate is always worth it. Everyone having a unanimous opinion leads to everyone being blindsided.

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XxSoulxX | Posted 4/21/2009 8:04:53 PM | message detail
Well, I'll just say it's nice to see you be especially aggressive about how wrong the prediction is now compared to before the lock-down.

I didn't even know this match was in question before lockdown. If I saw an argument for EB at the time, I would have said the same things I'm saying now.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 8:05:37 PM | message detail
Playing Devil's Advocate is always worth it. Everyone having a unanimous opinion leads to everyone being blindsided.

Just like with Link > Zidane, right? Almost no one saw that coming.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 8:06:38 PM | message detail
I didn't even know this match was in question before lockdown. If I saw an argument for EB at the time, I would have said the same things I'm saying now.

He was referring mostly...actually pretty much entirely to BT.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 8:07:02 PM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | #438
Playing Devil's Advocate is always worth it. Everyone having a unanimous opinion leads to everyone being blindsided.

Just like with Link > Zidane, right? Almost no one saw that coming.


That one had an answer though; sonic characters fold to nintendo.

Theres nothing here saying earthbound can win
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 8:07:16 PM | message detail
True, the VC-polls ask different questions...but there's a correlation. FF killed the rest of the games on it, DH didn't have a strong day-vote there or in its most recent match, Contra flopped against Metroid yet still beat DW3 (though only DW's in the NES-VC poll), and both Tecmo and Crystalis were uber-fodder. Even Battletoads cheated again for thousands of votes. I think we'd agree SMK beats MMX too, which the SNES-VC suggests.

It's not all wrong. There may have been too much faith put into it, but they're not wastes and we certainly haven't disproven it with EB yet, so I think an hour of patience would be nice instead of constant taunts when you don't really know either.
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ZFS | Posted 4/21/2009 8:08:37 PM | message detail
That VC poll is about as legit as the Battletoads over FF one if you ask me.

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:10:27 PM | message detail
This argument is making me want to shoot people in the face.

Looks like SotN will just barely escape a doubling.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 8:11:54 PM | message detail
I think the fact that CT dominated the SNES VC poll shows that people were mostly just voting for their favorites.

I mean, hadn't CT just had the DS version announced? Why would anyone vote for it otherwise?

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HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 8:12:28 PM | message detail
I just established you can't entirely trust the polls, and Battletoads > FF is a bad example considering we've seen 4chan rally hard for it to beat FF twice now.

Find another reason to hate those polls, is all. EB may be your reason soon, but they've not really been that wrong outside of BT > FF and probably EB.
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Prototype
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 8:13:59 PM | message detail
Alternatively, you could say Ness did almost as well as DK did against Mario in 2002

Despite having far less overlap than DK. Let's not forget that point.

And it's sad when Earthbound's two arguments are that VC poll and The List. Those aren't things you want to be relying on here.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 8:14:43 PM | message detail
just 45 minutes till the earthbound brigade shuts up
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 8:15:04 PM | message detail
GoldenEye certainly didn't look as dominant as its VC poll suggested, unless you want to go the Mario RPG > Majora's Mask or Smash Bros. route.

I suppose it's possible, but...
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 8:16:08 PM | message detail
just 45 minutes till the earthbound brigade shuts up

There's always next year. And next year. And next year. And...

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ZenOfThunder | Posted 4/21/2009 8:16:32 PM | message detail
http://kotaku.com/5222212/dead-rising-2s-main-character-is-named-chuck

awww yeah chuck for CBVIII
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