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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 684

ZFS | Posted 4/21/2009 4:36:27 PM | message detail
boring match let's just skip this one

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Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/21/2009 4:36:44 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #303
X lost because LA was stronger than it was supposed to be


From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #303
LA was stronger than it was supposed to be


From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #303
stronger than it was supposed to be


From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #303
supposed to be


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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 4:37:14 PM | message detail
I wonder if lack of mario in the pic will hurt it
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 4:38:10 PM | message detail
What do you mean by hurt? Mario isn't in the game, so this 'hurt' should be part of its intrinsic strength.
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BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 4:38:11 PM | message detail
Mario is there. Crying like the baby he is but he's there.

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Master Moltar | Posted 4/21/2009 4:38:48 PM | message detail
YI pic gross

CT > EB book it
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Match 15 - Bracket: SM64 > SotN - Vote: SM64 (42/56)
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 4:39:08 PM | message detail
Oh wait he is there, couldn't tell that was him till I squinted though
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
Mumei | Posted 4/21/2009 4:40:15 PM | message detail
The YI picture brings back memories of screaming Baby Mario.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/21/2009 4:41:37 PM | message detail
Look at Yoshi's defeated, anguished face.

Never, ever have kids. Ever.
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MetricTrout | Posted 4/21/2009 4:43:00 PM | message detail
I like how the Yoshi's Island pick show Yoshi falling straight on his face.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/21/2009 4:44:09 PM | message detail
Well, now the voters know that Yoshi's Island isn't really a Mario game. Go on and beat FFVII and LTTP's percentages, Chrono Trigger!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 4:44:12 PM | message detail
Man, if EB can't at least put up a fight with a pic like that, there's no excuses left. CT saps all the casual votes with TEH SWORD, EB's pic brings back memories of moments all EB fans know and love, while Yoshi's Island pic brings back memories of WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH

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KingBartz | Posted 4/21/2009 4:47:14 PM | message detail
wow, could there ever be more of a pic disadvantage for Yoshi's Island?
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 4:48:19 PM | message detail
I like SMW2:YI's pic, though it's definitely WAAAAAAH-memories. Still, yeah, EB's got the pic in its favor at least. I'll cross my fingers for bracket-points, though I'm still voting for the dinosaur+baby human combo.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 4:49:57 PM | message detail
Also, don't look now, but SM64 could possibly drive C:SotN to a legit doubling.

Nice job from the best game ever. =)
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 4:52:07 PM | message detail
I wonder what everybody would say if I had something to do with it.


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BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
MetricTrout | Posted 4/21/2009 4:58:12 PM | message detail
I probably would take Mario World or Mario 64 over Chrono Trigger if they replaced Yoshi's Island in this match, actually. But Yoshi's Island just looks horribly weak to me.

Just look at the sales figures for the NES/SNES Mario remakes on the GBA!

Super Mario World - 4.179 million
Super Mario Bros 2 - 3.938 million
Super Mario Bros 3 - 3.698 million
Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island - 2.195 million

Looking at the sales figures, it does not appear that modern consumers consider Yoshi's Island to be a true Mario game. The original SNES Yoshi's Island is the worst selling Mario platformer (other than Lost Levels, obviously), and the fact that many people do not consider it to be a true Mario platformer anyway should hurt its performance.

Hell, look at this poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1181

Yoshi's Island did worse than Mario 2. Yeah.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 4:58:56 PM | message detail
I probably would take Mario World or Mario 64 over Chrono Trigger if they replaced Yoshi's Island in this match, actually. But Yoshi's Island just looks horribly weak to me.

-giggle-
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 5:01:18 PM | message detail
I'm all for anything that paints YI in a bad light, but

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1225

We tried to use the same poll logic for LA. Didn't work out so well.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 5:03:07 PM | message detail
That's true, but as I said before, Zelda is an entirely different beast from Mario. Link's Awakening is also a lot more "Zelda" than Yoshi's Island is "Mario."

As a Mario fan... Mario World 2 feels like a spin-off. I don't feel like I'm alone in this, but we'll see. I think I've listed all of my points here, and I guess debating would just be repeating myself.
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BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/21/2009 5:03:48 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure Mario Paint would beat Earthbound tomorrow, lets leave it at that.
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ZFS | Posted 4/21/2009 5:05:15 PM | message detail
A Mario spin-off should be more than enough to clear EarthBound with ease, though. This game is weak, let's not pretend it isn't.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 5:08:03 PM | message detail
-Doom beat Earthbound easily.
- A SFF'd Donkey Kong Country beat Doom.
- A Donkey Kong Country of similiar strength got less then 10% against some mid tier games and one high tier

Basically, we're looking at Earthbound being more then doubled by something like RE2.

Its THAT weak.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
Internet_Warbot | Posted 4/21/2009 5:09:13 PM | message detail
not to mention the SFF it'll have to endure on top.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 5:09:46 PM | message detail
No offense, but your idea of game strength is 99% of the time flawed. Anything involving stats with Albion, trolling or not, is not to be trusted!
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BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 5:10:06 PM | message detail
Mario spin-offs have done well enough here -- Mario Kart kicks ass, SMRPG is respected, and the rest do well enough for what they are (Mario Party, Mario Sports, etc.). For the EB-upset to work, we CT > EB'ers have to hope being such an unusual entry in the Mario series is actually worse for it than being a successful spin-off like SMK, MK64, SMRPG, or perhaps some others. If SMW2:YI gets very close to any of those, EB is dead in the water.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 4/21/2009 5:13:07 PM | message detail
The poll option is at least going to say Super Mario World 2 right? If not, I might actually start to get a little worried about it.
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ZFS | Posted 4/21/2009 5:13:41 PM | message detail
If there's one point Albion made that's notable it's that Doom easily beat Earthbound back in 2k4. There's no reason for me to believe that match is any different today -- Earthbound hasn't had any reason to maintain what little strength it had in the past five years, no more than any other games that have dropped despite seeing re-releases.

If against all odds Earthbound does advance, it'd be because Yoshi's Island is a complete bomb. Hard to see that happening with how good every Mario-related game has done so far.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 5:13:45 PM | message detail
Well.. it should, but I doubt that matters. Who knows Yoshi is not a Mario character?
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BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/21/2009 5:17:26 PM | message detail
Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island (SNES) FAQ/Walkthrough 3399
Super Mario World 2: Yoshi's Island (SNES) Red Coin/Flower Checklist 3033

Not that high for 6 months' worth of FAQ hits.

Devin Morgan's EarthBound guide has a total of 64000 hits in five years' time, which is damn impressive. That game has a ****load of guides up for it, including two other people having starred guides.

BELIEVE
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 5:18:15 PM | message detail
A Donkey Kong Country of similiar strength got less then 10% against some mid tier games and one high tier

And said DKC game needed Board 8 to avoid missing the contest.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 5:19:31 PM | message detail
only thing I'll believe in is that Earthbound is gonna beat lufia 2.

though lufia 2 will be doing big cuts in the europe hours!
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 5:21:01 PM | message detail
Europe heard of Lufia 2? huh?
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BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 5:22:58 PM | message detail

From: MarioSuperstar | #383
Europe heard of Lufia 2? huh?


It released there same year as japan and america.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/21/2009 5:24:09 PM | message detail
This may just be the first match where I actually like all four games.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/21/2009 5:24:38 PM | message detail
Tomorrow's match, not the current one.

Though 3/4 is still pretty good.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 4/21/2009 5:38:17 PM | message detail
If EB somehow pulls through, it's because its fanbase is crazy dedicated. It obviously wouldn't have a chance against YI in a 1 v 1 situation.

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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 5:43:31 PM | message detail
I'm thinking that EarthBound has a chance. Out of Nintendo's fanbases, EarthBound's is one of, if not THE most dedicated to their game.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/21/2009 5:54:48 PM | message detail
Never though I'd see Dekar in a match pic for GameFAQs contests. Heh.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 6:28:12 PM | message detail
What kinda % does CT need tomorrow to look close to last contests strength you think?
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creativename | Posted 4/21/2009 6:28:27 PM | message detail
Added the missing updates Luster sent me.
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red sox 777 | Posted 4/21/2009 6:42:56 PM | message detail
I'd say around 53%, but perhaps I am overestimating the effect of the Mario name. LTTP got 56% against its pack, so that comparison suggests CT needs higher than that to look equal to its 2004 self/LTTP (no real reason for LTTP to have moved much, for now anyway), because Earthbound/Lufia 2 are definitely weaker than Doom and Streets of Rage, and DKC and YI ought to be fairly close. But I can't help but think (fear) that either YI is much stronger than DKC due to the Mario name, or LTTP did SFF DKC badly, and by enough that its overall percentage was helped more by the SFF than it was hurt by the LFF, or both. Comparing with FFVII, 56% seems a lot harder to believe for CT because it basically requires Mario Kart 64 to be worth about as much on YI as FFVII is on CT.

So....I'll be satisfied with something in the 53% area, if YI looks impressive relative to Earthbound anyway, but I'm definitely hoping for higher. In a couple hours, we will hopefully see a stronger Chrono Trigger than we saw in 2004!
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/21/2009 6:51:13 PM | message detail
Match XVI: Chrono Trigger vs. Earthbound vs. Lufia II vs. Super Mario World 2: Yoshi’s Island

Information:

Name: Chrono Trigger
Year: 1995
System: SNES
2004 Performance: 79.39% against Secret of Mana, 67.08% against Super Mario RPG, 59.01% against Super Mario World, 50.18% against LoZ: A Link to the Past, 52.23% against Super Mario Bros. 3, 41.76% against Final Fantasy VII

Name: Earthbound
Year: 1995
System: SNES
2004 Performance: 42.96% against Doom

Name: Lufia II
Year: 1995
System: SNES
2004 Performance: Did not enter

Name: Super Mario World 2: Yoshi’s Island
Year: 1995
System: SNES
2004 Performance: Did not enter

Analysis

The fifth member of the super six and a finalist of the previous contest is Chrono Trigger and like the others it’ll show the reason why it’s one of the strongest games in the contest. Continuing our Mario gauntlet we have Yoshi’s Island making this out fourth and final day of Mario games appearances. You know unlike Final Fantasy and Zelda where the games are evenly spread the Mario series has eight games in this half of the bracket while only having two games in the second half. Finishing off our quartet we have two SNES RPGs, against Chrono Trigger.

All eyes are on Chrono Trigger to see whether or not it has dropped and if Chrono Trigger DS has done anything to boost its strength, especially in Europe. Crono and friends do look weaker now than they were in 2004, but the only games that I would take over Chrono Trigger that were weaker than it in 2004 are LoZ: A Link to the Past and maybe Super Mario Bros. 3. Chrono Trigger DS probably help stem off some of the bleeding, but I would be surprised if Chrono Trigger returned to its former 2004 glory. Still given the competition Chrono Trigger could be pushing 50% by the end of the match.

Lufia II couldn’t have picked a worse opponent than Chrono Trigger. We could potentially have another sub 5% performance because of this placing. Unlike Earthbound Lufia II does not have a rabid cult fanbase to protect from giants like Chrono Trigger from an utter crushing. I wouldn’t be surprised if Lufia II was in the running for last place, though outdoing Prince of Persia and Crystalis is going to take some work.

Speaking of Earthbound some of its fans is trying to hype this match against Yoshi’s Island. I think some of those fans are blind because they obviously don’t see that Chrono Trigger is in this match and Yoshi’s Island is a Mario game. Not only would I take Yoshi’s Island over Earthbound in a one on one match I would hesitate to take Earthbound over Yoshi’s Island had this match had two other Mario titles. Earthbound’s hardcore fanbase will prevent Earthbound from sinking to pathetic levels because of SFF, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Earthbound closer to Lufia II than Yoshi’s Island.

Yoshi’s Island is often considered to be the forgotten Mario game when it comes to favourite Mario game polls, but with no Mario games in sight and with three RPG games Yoshi’s Island should have no problem coming in second in this boring match. What will be interesting is to watch a Mario game destroy everything during the dead zone because Chrono Trigger and Earthbound weren’t released in Europe.

To end this boring division we have another boring match. Unless something interesting happens here expect the second round and the division finals to go as consensus. I guess having a perfect division in this contest could be something to be happy about. Also while all eight Mario games in this half of the bracket made it to round two expect some carnage next round with that number easily being cut in half.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Chrono Trigger > Super Mario World 2: Yoshi’s Island

charmander6000’s Prediction: Chrono Trigger – 52.92%, SMW2: Yoshi’s Island – 26.33%, Earthbound – 14.73%, Lufia II – 6.02%
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 6:54:43 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #393
Not only would I take Yoshi’s Island over Earthbound in a one on one match I would hesitate to take Earthbound over Yoshi’s Island had this match had two other Mario titles.


Crazy talk.
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BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
MnMZero | Posted 4/21/2009 6:59:21 PM | message detail
Can't believe people in this topic are doubting the greatest Mario game ever.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 7:06:27 PM | message detail
For the Yoshi's Island/Earthbound debaters, I have only one question:

Yoshi's Island vs. Doom: Who you got?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 7:09:43 PM | message detail
And there's nothing wrong with YI's pic. If you liked the game, it's funny.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 7:21:25 PM | message detail
I'd take Doom.
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BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
ffmasterjose | Posted 4/21/2009 7:21:59 PM | message detail
Devin Morgan's EarthBound guide has a total of 64000 hits in five years' time, which is damn impressive. That game has a ****load of guides up for it, including two other people having starred guides.

I really don't think contribution hit amounts mean THAT much.

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42/56 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Mario 64 > Castlevania: SotN | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/21/2009 7:23:09 PM | message detail
Round 1 - Division 4: Match 4

Chrono Trigger


Chrono Trigger's first appearance since the DS remake, will it impress?

Earthbound

lol turbofodder

Lufia 2

lol even more turbo-y fodder. I still maintain that DKC2 should have been placed in Lufia's spot to at least make this an interesting match.
lol board 8

Yoshi's Island

Third best Mario game

Analysis:

This is the one match I am most confident in the result being correct. This is THE most predictable match in the bracket. There is NO reason for the result to be surprising.

That said, there are a select few steakheads that endlessly argue that Earthbound has a chance here. Aside from being against 2 other SNES RPGs and everything Mario being impressive so far this year, Earthbound has a proven history of sucking in contests almost as much as the game itself blows. Let's have a quick look at some of the things Earthbound has done in these contests:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2098 Notice how Mario quadrupled Ness. SFF aside, Ness did worse than Joanna Dark
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2882 I remember before this match thinking that Ness should have no trouble advancing. The sole Nintendo option against 3 PS1 stars, he stands out like a sore thumb. "whoops"
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3267 Here, the supposedly "hardcore" Earthbound fanbase failed to propel Ness over Pac-Man. He was closer to Travis Touchdown. Who the hell is Travis Touchdown? I still have no clue.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1615 And here's the final nail in the Earthbound coffin. In a year with pathetically low votals, it managed to get destroyed (Ulti style) by Doom. DOOM.

There you go Earthbound apologists, you've succeeded in making me waste 10 minutes debating what was a foregone conclusion the second the bracket was released. I hope you're happy.

Now on to things that actually matter, Chrono Trigger has to impress here. If it shows any signs of weakness, it will lose to Mario 64 in the division finals. Pressure's on.

TuRtLe's Prediction: Chrono Trigger 55%, Yoshi's Island 30%, Earthbound 10%, Lufia 2 5%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Chrono Trigger > Yoshi's Island
TuRtLe's Vote: Yoshi's Island is great, but Chrono Trigger is my second favourite RPG ever.
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