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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 684

Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 7:00:08 AM | message detail
But really, having generations was nothing short of stupid. I mean, 2007 and 2008 had 12 and 13 (respectively) matches where one entrant was under 10%, yet we ALREADY have 13 such matches while not even being halfway through round 1! (Again, I'm referring to r1 matches for those years.)
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 7:01:00 AM | message detail
Theres something wrong when games like Prince of Persia and Crystalis get in over Rock Band, Devil May Cry and Warcraft 3.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/21/2009 7:02:35 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 7:04:31 AM | message detail
There's something wrong when the morons on this board wanted DKC2 where it is now instead of in the Chrono Trigger match.

Morons....


Who's to say that DKC2 wouldn't have stunk up the joint there as well?
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
charmander6000 | Posted 4/21/2009 7:07:17 AM | message detail
Earthbound fans didn't want to see their game come in fourth.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SM64 > Castlevania: SotN Points: 41/56
UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/21/2009 7:08:30 AM | message detail
I'd never take MGS1 over Mario 64, but Harrich's post is making me kinda with I had MGS4>RE4 instead of RE4>MGS4 in that MGS4/RE4/TP match.

That match where Brawl or Galaxy will also get thrown in and syphon away all of RE4's Nintendo support? I had RE4 ahead of MGS4 for quite awhile there, but then I realized RE4's strength comes from the Nintendo fanbase.

Not to say MGS and Snake's recent surge hasn't also been because of Nintendo, but MGS is far more independent from Nintendo than RE4 is. The funniest thing in that poll is if everything shakes out the way I'm hoping, you end up with RE4, MGS and MGS4 in the same match one round later.
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Now Playing: Etrian Odyssey 2, Lunar 2, Devil May Cry 3
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 7:12:07 AM | message detail

From: Fayt_Esteed | #204
There's something wrong when the morons on this board wanted DKC2 where it is now instead of in the Chrono Trigger match.

Morons....


Who's to say that DKC2 wouldn't have stunk up the joint there as well?


Going by the stats, for Earthbound to stand a chance of winning there, DKC would need to put 65% on Yoshis Island

So for the Earthbound bridage, they might have felt it would be a match!
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 7:49:38 AM | message detail
I just woke up to see...

RE doing better with the morning vote then Mario 64?

buh?


*looks at my chart*

...I don't know where you're getting that. Although if you're judging it by the DSV, then maybe, because the during school hours are almost like a mini-night vote.
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transience | Posted 4/21/2009 7:52:29 AM | message detail
RE's always great during this time. Jill got a lead on Peach at this time.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 7:53:05 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #208
I just woke up to see...

RE doing better with the morning vote then Mario 64?

buh?


*looks at my chart*

...I don't know where you're getting that. Although if you're judging it by the DSV, then maybe, because the during school hours are almost like a mini-night vote.


Well when I had gotten up, RE gained more % in the last couple morning hours then SM64 did
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 7:55:44 AM | message detail
Mario 64 made a bigger leap from night to morning than RE did by a lot. Now...this is RE time, honestly. Nintendo doesn't normally do as well during the DSV. It's mostly morning vote and ASV.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 8:03:19 AM | message detail
So what do you guys make of Mario 64's performance? Good, bad, average?

Let's rank now:

Super Mario 64
GoldenEye
Super Mario World
Metal Gear Solid
Final Fantasy X
Resident Evil 4
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transience | Posted 4/21/2009 8:05:05 AM | message detail
this is pretty good. better than Goldeneye's performance by a good margin.
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xyzzy
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 8:26:02 AM | message detail

From: alexazx | #189
I based my prediction on my intuition, which is based on the popularity in my country, which clearly is quite different to USA.


In which.. if you researched the majority of the people on this site *and* the past polls (beating SFII is good whether you're in Europe or America), you would have gave SMRPG a second thought.

You just used country centric thinking and happened to think about the wrong country. I even remember you saying you've never heard of SMRPG.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 8:28:04 AM | message detail
Also Super Star would probably still be losing even if SM64 wasn't in the poll. There's no way I take it over Resident Evil.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
creativename | Posted 4/21/2009 8:36:30 AM | message detail
I guess Kirby getting most of his strength from character design and Smash Bros. is true after all.

Absolutely. I don't see how anyone would say otherwise. People actually like Kirby. But like I said earlier when I was trashing KSS's chances of looking decent, who respects Kirby games??


That match where Brawl or Galaxy will also get thrown in and syphon away all of RE4's Nintendo support? I had RE4 ahead of MGS4 for quite awhile there, but then I realized RE4's strength comes from the Nintendo fanbase.

Hmmm...there were a couple people in this topic who were strongly adamant about RE4>MGS4, which is what caused me to switch, and I might be wrong but I think one of them was you :) Course like I said, I was always highly uncertain about that match and remained uncertain about it, I had no strong convictions. Still don't, although I'm leaning more towards MGS4 now. I think MGS will impress this contest.


this is pretty good. better than Goldeneye's performance by a good margin.

I don't think too many people would have championed Goldeneye being as strong as Mario 64 in any case. This *is* Mario 64 we're talking about, it'd be a massive flop if it wasn't stronger than Goldeneye :)
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 8:40:05 AM | message detail
Much as I would like to, even for "fun stats" you can't really derive anything from what SotN/RE are getting on SM64 - not when this is the best they're going to look all match, and on the cusp of SM64 about to blow them away for 12 hours straight.

Here's an update six hours later then (as of 11:20 AM), now that we're well out of the dead-zone. Again, it's based on today's poll, MGS/RE, and GE/C:SotN...

MGS - 50%
SM64 - 44.18%
GE - 36.99%
C:SotN - 31.2%
RE - 29.38%
KSS - 9.58%

...I think I did those numbers right -- I'm in class though and they could probably use double-checking (so close to graduating...!). Either way, those are approximately "right" for using two five-year-old one-on-one matches and an unfinished four-way. We should also consider that MGS's numbers are from 2004 when Solid/Frog was close, GE got 39.08% on RE2 (28.9% on MGS, which is surprisingly under RE), C:SotN was released on XLA since 2004, RE4 and RE5 have put RE back in the spot-light, KSS is likely SFF'd to some degree...and probably more.

Take these numbers with caution.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
charmander6000 | Posted 4/21/2009 8:44:04 AM | message detail
So assuming the difference between GE and SotN is the same SM64 defeats SMRPG 60/40. So how about that SMW/SM64?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SM64 > Castlevania: SotN Points: 41/56
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 8:54:00 AM | message detail
I don't think too many people would have championed Goldeneye being as strong as Mario 64 in any case. This *is* Mario 64 we're talking about, it'd be a massive flop if it wasn't stronger than Goldeneye :)

You'd be surprised how debated Mario 64/GE has been in this topic then!
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 9:08:36 AM | message detail
Haha, yeah, I had been a big proponent of GE > SM64 in a close one and had been taking the "upset" of GE > SM64 for third place in R3...but this doesn't look good for picks like that!
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
ZFS | Posted 4/21/2009 9:10:21 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy X
Metal Gear Solid
Super Mario 64
Super Mario World
Resident Evil 4
Goldeneye

Feel good about this.

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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 4/21/2009 9:10:30 AM | message detail
Goldeneye is pretty damn good, but I'm pretty sure SM64 would wipe the floor with it.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 9:13:37 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy X
Metal Gear Solid
Super Mario 64
Resident Evil 4
Super Mario World
GoldenEye


Forgot to do this. The power of brand-names just look to be too much for GE right now.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
charmander6000 | Posted 4/21/2009 9:18:22 AM | message detail
Ocarina of Time and Super Mario 64 are probably the only two games in this bracket that could SFF GoldenEye.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SM64 > Castlevania: SotN Points: 41/56
nintendogirl1 | Posted 4/21/2009 11:05:39 AM | message detail
I could see GE > SM64 indirectly, but rSFF would take effect if they were put into a match together. GE would not stand up to that.
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It deserves to but ...
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/21/2009 11:05:48 AM | message detail
I never bought into the GE/SM64 debates. I think Goldeneye is much better suited with RE4 and MGS, but Mario is out of its league.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/21/2009 11:06:51 AM | message detail
And only one more hour until Resident Evil busts out some ASV cuts!
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
XxSoulxX | Posted 4/21/2009 11:07:53 AM | message detail
I never bought into the GE/SM64 debates. I think Goldeneye is much better suited with RE4 and MGS, but Mario is out of its league.

Yeah. OoT > SM64 > Goldeneye is pretty much set in stone, although I wouldn't be surprised if SSB or MK64 could beat Goldeneye.
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charmander6000 | Posted 4/21/2009 11:29:21 AM | message detail
Come on Kirby fall another .5% so we can continue this under 10% streak.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SM64 > Castlevania: SotN Points: 41/56
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/21/2009 11:31:59 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy X
Resident Evil 4
Metal Gear Solid
Super Mario 64
Goldeneye
Super Mario World

Confident other than the last two.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 11:32:07 AM | message detail
I just realized how its quite ironic we always say that CT is old Square and FF7 is new square, yet FF7 actually had its match before CT
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
charmander6000 | Posted 4/21/2009 11:37:32 AM | message detail
I do find that amusing though,

CT - 1995, SNES
FFVII - 1997, PS

They have very different fanbases.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SM64 > Castlevania: SotN Points: 41/56
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 11:45:01 AM | message detail
FFVII and CT are only two years apart, true, but CT is at the end of one part of Square's era and FFVII is the beginning of another, so they are quite different in that sense.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/21/2009 12:11:50 PM | message detail
I'm going to go ahead and reward this particular topic a Vlado Award of Posting Excellence™.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/21/2009 12:17:15 PM | message detail
Castlevania is dying at a faster rate!

Man, this is like watching two blind men stumble through a maze.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/21/2009 12:23:46 PM | message detail
Come on Kirby fall another .5% so we can continue this under 10% streak.

Not going to happen. Kirby is starting to go up with the ASV.

Castlevania is dying at a faster rate!

Castlevania pretty much died when the sun came up. RE didn't start dying until near the start of the ASV, in which it's now going down again.
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creativename | Posted 4/21/2009 12:25:10 PM | message detail
Haha, yeah, I had been a big proponent of GE > SM64 in a close one and had been taking the "upset" of GE > SM64 for third place in R3...but this doesn't look good for picks like that!

An upset in that match is quite possible - but that would be FF7>Mario 64 instead of Chrono Trigger. I don't think it will happen, but FF7 should disproportionately hurt Chrono Trigger there; I just don't think the degree will be enough. Especially with GoldenEye taking a bit of SM64's support (I see less overlap there than with the RPGs, but SM64 probably can't afford any at all).

It depends on how much Chrono Trigger has fallen though - if it's fallen off significantly, that improves the chances of a Mario 64 upset.

Trying to predict tomorrow's match oracle-wise was interesting, because I don't have all that much faith in any of the games. Chrono Trigger I think has unfortunately gone down a bit, Earthbound I don't have any faith in, and needless to say I don't have any faith in Lufia 2 (only a madman would - it might be approaching Prince of Persia levels of turbosuck here).

And I don't have all that much faith in Yoshi's Island either, I think it could be respectable but it could also disappoint. Chrono Trigger doing well against YI might not even tell us much because we don't know where SMW2 is at.
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BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
voltch | Posted 4/21/2009 12:25:51 PM | message detail
1997,we had Titanic,no wonder anything large scale in 97 is popular.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/21/2009 12:27:26 PM | message detail
I do find that amusing though,

CT - 1995, SNES
FFVII - 1997, PS


They were both in the same division and it's not like the games in each of the 4 matches for the division are arranged by chronological order (by date of release).
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
charmander6000 | Posted 4/21/2009 12:40:01 PM | message detail
And I don't have all that much faith in Yoshi's Island either, I think it could be respectable but it could also disappoint. Chrono Trigger doing well against YI might not even tell us much because we don't know where SMW2 is at.

Not like Earthbound is going to capitalize on a flop from SMW2.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SM64 > Castlevania: SotN Points: 41/56
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 12:40:39 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #240
Not like Earthbound is going to capitalize on a flop from SMW2.


You wait and see.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/21/2009 12:40:52 PM | message detail
I sent an email to creative earlier, but I forgot to include a subject.

"whoops"

Oh well, he should get the email regardless. I sent an email to point out a very specific post I had made.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/21/2009 12:41:26 PM | message detail
that's great
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/21/2009 12:44:39 PM | message detail
I wonder if RE2 would have made a match of this.
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ImplicitContent | Posted 4/21/2009 12:46:37 PM | message detail
I actually think RE is stronger than RE2 around these parts... even though RE2 is the accepted (and it is!) better game. Looks like jumping on the RE bandwagon was a bad one to get on. RE4 better kick TP's ass and bring me sweet redemption.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
charmander6000 | Posted 4/21/2009 12:48:33 PM | message detail
I actually think RE is stronger than RE2 around these parts... even though RE2 is the accepted (and it is!) better game. Looks like jumping on the RE bandwagon was a bad one to get on. RE4 better kick TP's ass and bring me sweet redemption.

If RE > RE2 then RE would be winning here.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SM64 > Castlevania: SotN Points: 41/56
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/21/2009 12:50:25 PM | message detail
It could be another notch in the "series progenitor" theory, but RE really doesn't have any advantages on RE2 other than that. Not critical acclaim, not fan standing, and not even sales. Regardless, it's not a bad performance relative to SotN, although that game has certainly slipped.

As a series, Resident Evil hasn't impressed so far, but at least it hasn't bombed like Sonic or Mega Man.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 12:51:16 PM | message detail
RE4 should be fine. We can't just group the whole series together when we know it's quite possible RE4 is just a beast on its own.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
Childproof | Posted 4/21/2009 12:53:59 PM | message detail
XD Earthbound will be lucky not to get doubled by Yoshi's Island
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Is GrapefruitKing
Today's prediction: Mario 64 44.26% - Alucard's Plan 27.36% - RE 19.96% - Kirby 8.42% Status: Meh
ImplicitContent | Posted 4/21/2009 12:54:02 PM | message detail
Really... RE2 has sales on RE even with the DS and GC remakes taken into account?

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all hail ec your lord and savior