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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 684

RockMFR 5 | Posted 4/20/2009 9:45:23 PM | message detail
It'll be the DSV where Castlevania really loses a lot.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 4/20/2009 9:45:59 PM | message detail
Oh, OoT can beat FFVII in America, no doubt.

It just probably won't beat it anywhere else.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/20/2009 9:46:02 PM | message detail
Ugh, Kirby is starting to drop off big time.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
S_K_F | Posted 4/20/2009 9:46:49 PM | message detail
Kirby REEAALLLYY needs to be in the top 2 here, it so deserves it.

Vote for Kirby today!
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[Not changing this until Kirby Wii is released! Started March 20,2009]
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/20/2009 9:48:03 PM | message detail
I think the chances of OoT beating FFVII in the finals in America are pretty high.

Also, someone else pointed out the Series Contest final of Zelda/Final Fantasy in an earlier topic. There, Zelda ended up winning and you could argue that was all OoT vs. FFVII.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
MetricTrout | Posted 4/20/2009 9:48:18 PM | message detail
I wish I had something interesting to say about this match.

... Damn, is this match boring.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
red sox 777 | Posted 4/20/2009 9:50:11 PM | message detail
Also, someone else pointed out the Series Contest final of Zelda/Final Fantasy in an earlier topic. There, Zelda ended up winning and you could argue that was all OoT vs. FFVII.

I doubt that. In the next day's poll, 40% of the site said that Zelda really was the best series. There's no way OOT comes remotely close to that number for best game.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/20/2009 9:50:17 PM | message detail
So... any way Sotn sneaks into second next round or no?
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
ZFS | Posted 4/20/2009 9:52:20 PM | message detail
There, Zelda ended up winning and you could argue that was all OoT vs. FFVII.

Not all. Zelda and Final Fantasy are not one game series -- there's far more at play there than just FFVII vs. OoT. That was also a time when Zelda hype was at its peak, so I wouldn't even expect the same result if you ran again today.

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whatev | Posted 4/20/2009 9:58:19 PM | message detail
SOTN getting second next round? Umm, don't think so. Would need an amazing split between SM64 and YI, or for SM64 to inexplicably collapse against CT. I don't see either happening. Might as well wish for SOTN>CT.

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Lopen | Posted 4/20/2009 10:02:15 PM | message detail
Yeah I'd call SotN's chances next round done. SM64 > Chrono Trigger is a more juicy upset than that.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/20/2009 10:04:52 PM | message detail
My first perfect division so far. Sheesh

That is unless Earthbound decides to screw everything up
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transience | Posted 4/20/2009 10:05:18 PM | message detail
too bad there's a Yoshi's Island in the way.
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xyzzy
The n00b Avenger | Posted 4/20/2009 10:06:10 PM | message detail
Let's hope so
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/20/2009 10:25:54 PM | message detail
Ugh, the updater is dead for me. Looks like I'll track updates manually.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
greatone10 | Posted 4/20/2009 10:28:20 PM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 4/20/2009 10:04:52 PM | #162
My first perfect division so far. Sheesh

That is unless Earthbound decides to screw everything up


On the contrary, I need Yoshi's Island to come through in order to get one match right in this division.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/20/2009 10:42:39 PM | message detail
Resident Evil just cut SotN on that last update. Since the updater is dead, it would be harder for someone to notice this unless they are tracking updates manually. It was a 24 vote cut (732 to 708).
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/20/2009 10:56:23 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/20/2009 11:02:28 PM | message detail
Updater is back up again. Odd, it was tracking some updates even during the time I was having trouble just loading up that site. Here are 2 updates that can be manually added to the updater that the updater didn't track:

Time | SotN | KSS | RE | SM64 | Total | Lead 1 | Lead 2 | Lead 3
1:20 | 3043 | 1716 | 2390 | 5556 | 12705 | 2513 | 653 | 674
1:25 | 3190 | 1789 | 2505 | 5796 | 13280 | 2606 | 685 | 716

No need for me to provide the percentages of the games on those updates, since that's all the data that will be needed to calculate their percentages on each of the updates.

For the 1:34 update listed on the updater, I discovered that it was for the 1:30 update, but since the updater went back online around 1:34, it had tracked the 1:30 update, albeit 4 minutes late. So it would be suggested to change the 1:34 update to say "01:30:00".
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/21/2009 12:20:21 AM | message detail
Kind of an unimpressive night vote from SotN so far - RE's been stalling it at a constant rate, and neither Nintendo entity has been falling that drastically.

Presuming a 1500-ish lead by morning, and giving RE the day vote (though who really knows), this could end up really dang close by the end.
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Destharion | Posted 4/21/2009 12:37:22 AM | message detail
more people had FFIV advancing than FFVII:

FFIV: 68.03% / 24.16%, total 92.19%
FFVII: 84.25% / 6.76%, total 91.01%

even accounting for zero brackets and anti-FF7 fanboys, that's just weird for a potential champion.
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/21/2009 12:41:08 AM | message detail
Tougher (and better-known) competition yields those kinds of results. There's definitely a Nintendo-exclusive crowd that frequents this site, and aside from the fact that FF4 is a Nintendo-system FF, it's a lot easier to send MK64 and SF64 together to the second round than... MM3 and RCR/Crystalis?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/21/2009 1:23:40 AM | message detail
Resident Evil winning the day vote would be incredible. I don't want to get my hopes up, but RE2 didn't get hit too badly with it (fell less than 1% from its nighttime peak), and that was against three Nintendo games. Once again, though, I don't want to get myself excited over what will likely be nothing. I'd be overjoyed with an all-day stall.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/21/2009 1:26:18 AM | message detail
It's not like it would have to do so by much - a 1500 vote lead seems out of the question at this point with the way it's cutting. That seems more a product of the dead/Europe time, though. I'll believe RE wins the day vote over something when I see it.

(...of course, I would have said the same thing doubly for Alucard/SotN, so there you go)
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 1:32:38 AM | message detail
I guess a weird question comes into play then: does REmake on the Gamecube or C:SotN on XLA bring in more votes for the ASV?
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
greatone10 | Posted 4/21/2009 1:34:53 AM | message detail
RE should definitely do better during the day then freaking Castlevania, but it's too far behind to matter.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 4/21/2009 1:37:56 AM | message detail
That's a good question. My guess would be REMake just because it was an infinitely more significant release, but hardly anything is more far removed from what the typical Nintendo fan would be drawn to. Anyway, I can't imagine RE increasing percentage with the day vote, meaning that if we want to see anything interesting here, Castlevania has to sink like a damned cannonball.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 4/21/2009 1:39:09 AM | message detail
...a thousand or so votes is too much? That's not even in our top thirty all-time comebacks! (granted, asking RE to make a big comeback against a game whose trends it basically mirrors may be too much, but the point stands)
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consolefreak | Posted 4/21/2009 2:14:58 AM | message detail
...a thousand or so votes is too much? That's not even in our top thirty all-time comebacks!

Assuming Castlevania and Resident Evil end up with about 50,000 votes total, Resident Evil
coming back from 1142 votes and winning would make this the 4th biggest comeback ever, right behind Starcraft vs WW, bigger than MC versus DK.
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HaRRicH | Posted 4/21/2009 2:20:52 AM | message detail
Fun-facts: since RE's getting 45.42% on C:SotN right now (as of 4:48) and we've seen both MGS/RE and GE/C:SotN...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1620
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1643

...C:SotN gets 32.07% on MGS, RE gets 36.99% on GE, and GE gets ~39.5% on MGS (39.38% from comparing C:SotN, 39.71% from comparing RE). That's neverminding C:SotN and RE getting 36.21% and 32.09% (respectively) on SM64 right now, making our age-old question of SM64/GE/MGS look like MGS > SM64 > GE...I'd like to have this in chart-form, but I'm tired and about to sleep.


There are lots of other factors to consider and this should only be taken loosely seriously for a variety of reasons, of course...but that's still mighty interesting, especially when we haven't seen MGS since the days of Solid/Frog.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
Karma Hunter | Posted 4/21/2009 2:31:02 AM | message detail
Much as I would like to, even for "fun stats" you can't really derive anything from what SotN/RE are getting on SM64 - not when this is the best they're going to look all match, and on the cusp of SM64 about to blow them away for 12 hours straight.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/21/2009 3:18:59 AM | message detail
Woot SOTN!

Don't choke this away, Alucard.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 3:38:02 AM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #162
My first perfect division so far. Sheesh

That is unless Earthbound decides to screw everything up


I'm feeling really good about this match now, and I have Earthbound.

This match will be the test of something I've been thinking about for weeks, and I'm wondering if it really does all come together.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
creativename | Posted 4/21/2009 4:35:06 AM | message detail
FF7 with a surprisingly low 1st place prediction percentage last match. Might just be the "didn't realize order mattered" crowd though.

Utterly turboexpected match today.

Fun-facts: since RE's getting 45.42% on C:SotN right now (as of 4:48) and we've seen both MGS/RE and GE/C:SotN...

I'd never take MGS1 over Mario 64, but Harrich's post is making me kinda with I had MGS4>RE4 instead of RE4>MGS4 in that MGS4/RE4/TP match. I think that was the one match where I let this topic change my initial pick (I had MGS4>RE4), but I was totally wishy-washy on that match to start with.
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BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 4:40:47 AM | message detail
MGS4 > RE4 was an upset I considered.. but didn't have the guts to take.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
creativename | Posted 4/21/2009 4:54:10 AM | message detail
I don't think that is an upset at all. Picks were probably split pretty evenly there.
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BREAK THE BLOCK DOWN
alexazx | Posted 4/21/2009 5:00:34 AM | message detail
Seriously, It's impossible to win this contest unless you live in USA or Canada. If Europe got to decide, Doom, Secret of Mana, RE1 & RE2 would all have made it to the next round, and Super Metroid would be out in favor of Super Mario Kart and Sonic 3.
If Europe got to decide those matches, I'd have 8 more points after today.
Still Europe were responsible for that Monkey Island upset.

Well, atleast now I can blame my low score on my location. :)
MarioSuperstar | Posted 4/21/2009 5:02:15 AM | message detail
Or you could blame it on your lack of research.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SM64 > SOTN - Points: 42/56 Vote: SM64
alexazx | Posted 4/21/2009 6:06:24 AM | message detail
Well, no matter how much you research, you can't trust old contest standings etc too much, you have to follow your intuition, and besides, we're talking about fairly low-tier games. You can't possibly find out by research, how popular they really are. I based my prediction on my intuition, which is based on the popularity in my country, which clearly is quite different to USA. When some of you guys was surprised at Super Mario Kart being a even match to Super Metroid, I felt the opposite. And clearly MK2 have a bigger cult-status in USA, than in Europe, and clearly you can say the opposite about Doom, and Resident Evil. In Europe, this series was huge, long before RE4.

It's completely valid to blame some of my off-picks on my location. I can't imagine how hard it is to predict the matches if you live in Japan for example, where the difference in taste will be even more significant.
LeonhartFour | Posted 4/21/2009 6:17:12 AM | message detail
FF7 with a surprisingly low 1st place prediction percentage last match. Might just be the "didn't realize order mattered" crowd though.

Considering FFVII was the first game on the poll, I doubt it.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 4/21/2009 6:25:37 AM | message detail
Now I'm interested to see how many people have OoT advancing.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/21/2009 6:27:59 AM | message detail
Seriously, It's impossible to win this contest unless you live in USA or Canada. If Europe got to decide, Doom, Secret of Mana, RE1 & RE2 would all have made it to the next round, and Super Metroid would be out in favor of Super Mario Kart and Sonic 3.
If Europe got to decide those matches, I'd have 8 more points after today.
Still Europe were responsible for that Monkey Island upset.

Well, atleast now I can blame my low score on my location. :)


If the Europe vote was completely discounted, I'd have at least 10 more points.

lol failope
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 6:37:58 AM | message detail
I just woke up to see...

RE doing better with the morning vote then Mario 64?

buh?
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Childproof | Posted 4/21/2009 6:41:49 AM | message detail
hmmm my pick got better over night, now I just need KSS to drop some more aaaand.... SotN to win the DSV

..... damn
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Is GrapefruitKing
Today's prediction: Mario 64 44.26% - Alucard's Plan 27.36% - RE 19.96% - Kirby 8.42% Status: Meh
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 6:49:33 AM | message detail
Hmm... Kirby just might drop below 10%. And if that happens to KSS, I guess Kirby getting most of his strength from character design and Smash Bros. is true after all.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 6:50:47 AM | message detail
If he gets most of his strength from character design, then people have lame taste in character design >_>
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 6:52:48 AM | message detail
Seriously, if Super Star is his strongest game and it's doing THIS... I wouldn't want to see any of Kirby's other games in this contest, that's for sure.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 4/21/2009 6:54:06 AM | message detail
Because Mario isn't in the poll or anything and we certainly haven't seen the 4th place get obliterated in every match regardless of supposed strength.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 4/21/2009 6:54:45 AM | message detail
It is also being SFF'd by one of the biggest Nintendo games of all time, too.
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Starcraft >= Diablo 2 > The Lost Vikings 2 >> trash >>>> World of Warcraft
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 4/21/2009 6:55:45 AM | message detail
Oh. Mario 64 is in the poll, too. I forgot. How silly of me.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia